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[Kurosaki Ichigo]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8518054&postcount=1210

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8396020&postcount=811

In other words, I just feel like predicting something...for Mario week:
100k > Wii >> X360 > PS3

I'll do it again: 11/5 to 11/11 week:

50k > PS3 > Wii >> 10k > X360
Mario Party DS > Shin Sangoku Musou 5

 

[taconinja]

What's amazing to me in this week's thread is "context." I'm watching poster after poster discard it and then pick it back up at will whenever it suits their argument.

Game X sold well on a Nintendo console : It was a minigame-fest/first party/etc. (1st party ignores any context : 2nd party embraces it)

The same people then take this route:

Game X wasn't marketed well/Games like Game X never sell well/etc. : Game X sold poorly on a Nintendo console (1st party embraces context : 2nd party ignores any context)

And on and on everyone goes in a circle.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8518054&postcount=1210

I'll do it again: 11/5 to 11/11 week:

50k > PS3 > Wii >> 10k > X360
Mario Party DS > Shin Sangoku Musou 5

I predict that Mario Party DS will be a million seller in the long term. (At this point, why not ?)

 

[Jokeropia]

First week neither improved nor worsened SMG's situation, but rather fell completely in line with what the first day sales suggested. Overall it's still disappointing, but I do expect it to sell well through the holidays.

Wow at 360 - PS3 streams finally crossing btw.

When does the holiday sales begin n Japan?

End of November, early December.

Ok, so we can't count Zack and Wiki. And we can't count RE:UC if that bombs...what is our next legitimate measure of 3rd parties success on Wii?

Why can't we count DQ:S?

I'm saying that the DS never had this perception. By virtue of being the successor to a success instead of a failure, it started with the perception that it would receive decent games.

Actually, there was a pretty heavy aura of doom surrounding DS and even Nintendo as a whole in 04/05 due to the overwhelming majority of the industry believing PSP would wipe the floor with it.

I see Joshua responded with actual numbers too.

I'm not following you, when did the 360 sell more in Japan then the PS3?

This week?

Besides, at least the last 3D Mario went out with a fucking bang.

*pours a 40 on Mario Galaxy's grave*

Talk about overreacting. (Hardly the only case of it in the thread though.) Do you honestly think SMG will be the last 3D Mario? Even if Nintendo for some reason judged the success of their games only on first week sales in Japan (rather than the more reasonable "LTD sales WW") I don't think that would be the case.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Still, if there was no hardcore player base on the Wii, why did RE4 sell so much?

Maybe the Wii playerbase wants more games in the line of RE4 and DQSwords?

 

[Deku]

I'm not seeing a lot of evidence for the existence of the hardcores in any significant numbers on any of the new home consoles. This could change, but I'm not very optimistic about it anymore.

In Japan, the DS should be treat as a mainline console. I don't think it can be stressed enough. It's got the best library.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

You know, Segata was behind a lot of it, so i think it goes farther than that.

To be honest, I ended up arguing a much stronger version of the argument than I meant to. Basically, the new data we got that spurred this conversation is that Super Mario Galaxy sold 250,000. The discussion should have been what sales like that mean for the overall Wii picture, but the conversation got wildly diverted and I certainly didn't help in that.

I just have trouble seeing the optimistic side of it when a better-reviewed installment released at a more opportune time of the year on a system with a significantly larger install base performs worse than its predecessor.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Still, if there was no hardcore player base on the Wii, why did RE4 sell so much?

Answer this question: where exactly did RE4 Wii Edition sell well ?

 

[Mariah Carey]

If it's any comfort to you lambs, just think: Nintendo's probably going to be hard at work at a killer 2D Mario Wii title as we speak.

I'm seeing a lot of "What has Nintendo done?!" type of posts, but really, Nintendo's been harping about the decline of 'hardcore' videogames in Japan for years now. I don't think Nintendo has really caused anything here-- they saw this coming and is the whole reason they made the DS and Wii the way they have. It actually seems like Nintendo's underserving their new audience more than anything...

 

[Kosma]

Answer this question: where exactly did RE4 Wii Edition sell well ?

Europe and US I think, although I don't have hard data it hung around in the charts in the UK and US for quite some time. I imagine most of the sale coming from the Western world.

 

[[Nintex]]

Still, if there was no hardcore player base on the Wii, why did RE4 sell so much?

Maybe the Wii playerbase wants more games in the line of RE4 and DQSwords?

They just want more good games and Nintendo needs to start with some decent marketing. They should've organized a Wii tour last month at multiple locations to show the new titles coming this year. Start TV ads 2 weeks before release instead of 2 days after etc.

 

[ksamedi]

Answer this question: where exactly did RE4 Wii Edition sell well ?

I think people perceive it as a huge succes because it sold much better than expected. It still sold close to a million though, thats not bad for a 2 year old game.

 

[Oblivion]

Talk about overreacting. (Hardly the only case of it in the thread though.) Do you honestly think SMG will be the last 3D Mario? Even if Nintendo for some reason judged the success of their games only on first week sales in Japan (rather than the more reasonable "LTD sales WW") I don't think that would be the case.

Hey, I'm just saying. Look at what Shiggy said. TP destroying Wind Waker's sales WW (in like what, 6 months?) didn't stop him from saying that he was severely disappointed with TP's sales in Japan, and he even said it's selling 'okay' in NA. For whatever reason, Nintendo is looking at Japan specifically.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Europe and US I think, although I don't have hard data it hung around in the charts in the UK and US for quite some time

Exactly.

 

[ksamedi]

If it's any comfort to you lambs, just think: Nintendo's probably going to be hard at work at a killer 2D Mario Wii title as we speak.

I'm seeing a lot of "What has Nintendo done?!" type of posts, but really, Nintendo's been harping about the decline of 'hardcore' videogames in Japan for years now. I don't think Nintendo has really caused anything here-- they saw this coming and is the whole reason they made the DS and Wii the way they have. It actually seems like Nintendo's underserving their new audience more than anything...

Finally someone who agrees with me .

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I predict that Mario Party DS will be a million seller in the long term. (At this point, why not ?)

Well, not all console Mario Party titles have reached a million, and Mario Party Advance sold worse than all of them. To reach a million, Mario Party DS will need to ~quadruple Mario Party Advance.

Answer this question: where exactly did RE4 Wii Edition sell well ?

Earth?

 

[pswii60]

So, why did 360 sales bump up this week? Was there a price drop?

 

[Kosma]

So, why did 360 sales bump up this week? Was there a price drop?

I think AC6 released.

 

[Neo C.]

Interesting precision. Again, I repeat, we are probably exaggerating.

Probably. It is surely dissapointing that SMG isn't the systemseller we expected. Still, there are a few games in the next few months which could push the Wii to an higher level, not only hardware-wise but also software-wise.

 

[pswii60]

I think AC6 released.

So is the 360 price drop still to come, or has it already happened?

I can't believe AC6 alone would bump up console sales by 13-14k!

 

[Stumpokapow]

Well, not all console Mario Party titles have reached a million, and Mario Party Advance sold worse than all of them. To reach a million, Mario Party DS will need to ~quadruple Mario Party Advance.

Mario Party Advance was an utter piece of shit. Like... probably one of the worst "first-party" titles Nintendo has EVER released. It was only barely multiplayer, for fuck's sake.

Normally I'm all in favor of using historical comparisons... but this is probably one of the only exceptions.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

So is the 360 price drop still to come, or has it already happened?

I can't believe AC6 alone would bump up console sales by 13-14k!

I would wait to MC numbers before to affirm this with absolutey certitude....

 

[Jokeropia]

Hey, I'm just saying. Look at what Shiggy said. TP destroying Wind Waker's sales WW (in like what, 6 months?) didn't stop him from saying that he was severely disappointed with TP's sales in Japan, and he even said it's selling 'okay' in NA. For whatever reason, Nintendo is looking at Japan specifically.

When did he say that, btw? How much had it sold WW at the time?

In either case, I really don't think TP was the last 3D Zelda. (Aonuma has commented on having lots of ideas for the next one.)

 

[Frillen]

When did he say that, btw? How much had it sold WW at the time?

In either case, I really don't think TP was the last 3D Zelda. (Aonuma has commented on having lots of ideas for the next one.)

I actually predict a new Zelda for Wii coming late in 2009. It's not farfetched in my opinion. It obviously depends on when they started the development.

 

[Scotch]

So is the 360 price drop still to come, or has it already happened?

I can't believe AC6 alone would bump up console sales by 13-14k!

There was a pricedrop this week.

 

[charlequin]

But... so far the result isn't shittier.

I think it's arguable. Nintendo's core-gamer titles doing uniformly worse in a system-over-system comparison is a really bad sign, and I don't think the single success that is DQ:S is really enough to outweigh it. The core gaming announcements from both Nintendo and third parties are lighter on the field, as well.

The Wii itself is more successful than the DS, yes, but again -- that success is only valuable when it can spread to some degree into solid core-gamer titles.

It's like ethelred said in the recent MySims thread:

My point is that the relevant decision point is when third-party games are greenlighted, not when they're released. If a shitty third-party game is released, you're already in a no-win situation; either it bombs (and the puiblisher backs off) or it succeeds (and more shitty software follows.)

The battle to win is the one where you convince the third parties to make good games in the first place. Microsoft has been winning this battle to at least some degree, despite being laughably irrelevant in the Japanese market, solely by shelling out hard cash yens in the right places; Nintendo has the funds to do the same, yet have clearly chosen not to.

 

[Arsenal]

I'm not following you, when did the 360 sell more in Japan then the PS3? It could happen for a week or so when a big game comes, but I don't really see it happening on a weekly basis.

Pretty sure that was a joke. 360 is at least doing better in Japan than last gen, but there is most certainly not going to be some dramatic turn around there. LO is pretty much the last hurrah, and while that should give a boost for a couple weeks, it likely won't look like much in the face of the normal holiday increases for the Wii/PS3. After that, I think we are going to be looking at 3k/week for the rest of the gen. The 360 may have done enough to win a few more multi-plat games in Japan with the PS3 also doing poorly, but that would be more of a moral victory at this point than anything truly meaningful.

Next gen console gaming in Japan is taking a dramatic turn compared to the rest of the world and the 360 is not on that bus.

 

[RBH]

So, why did 360 sales bump up this week? Was there a price drop?

1) Price drop occurred on November 1st
2) New Elite shipments
3) Ace Combat 6

 

[Oblivion]

When did he say that, btw? How much had it sold WW at the time?

You haven't read that? I can't seem to find a link, but he said it a few months ago. It's been brought up a few times. In any case, during the time he mentioned it, i'm fairly sure it passed the 4 million mark.

In either case, I really don't think TP was the last 3D Zelda. (Aonuma has commented on having lots of ideas for the next one.)

Well, I don't think in Zelda's case it's going to not be 3D, but they hinted that it will be severely trimmed compared to TP.

 

[Tideas]

Still, if there was no hardcore player base on the Wii, why did RE4 sell so much?

What's your definition of "so much"? It shipped a million. Didn't mean it sold a million. Barely made NPD of September, and hasn't it disappeared from Media Create top 20?

 

[Kosma]

Well, I don't think in Zelda's case it's going to not be 3D, but they hinted that it will be severely trimmed compared to TP.

I really don't want to get into semantics here but didn't he just say that TP was the last Zelda of its kind? That doesn't necessarily imply "trimmed" although it might (and I think that's pretty plausible).

 

[verplant]

It begins...

DSL 80000
PSP 57000
PS2 11000
PS3 16000
Wii 41000
360 17000

So MC will be like

Wii 30,000
PS3 23,000
360 9,000

:lol

 

[birdchili]

agree with ethelred regarding nintendo targetting the casuals out of the gate. still, my general comments on this are that it's been relatively brilliant as a general reversal of the console strategy (ie: hardcore first, casuals later in lifecycle). now it's possible that this strategy is showing its (obvious) weak point (game sales), but given that there isn't an obvious console ps2-successor in japan yet, there may still be time for them to get more of the buys-lots-of-games folk on-board. they've been talking up the "for hardcore too" more than usual lately - some smart people there, and the whole "we are not competing" is indeed bull.

 

[[Nintex]]

I really don't want to get into semantics here but didn't he just say that TP was the last Zelda of its kind? That doesn't necessarily imply "trimmed" although it might (and I think that's pretty plausible).

He said that years ago, when the Gamecube bombed horribly and the world was crashing down on Nintendo. TP did great in Europe and NA and fans actually want more so why not go the easy route and do a direct sequel?

 

[Oblivion]

I really don't want to get into semantics here but didn't he just say that TP was the last Zelda of its kind? That doesn't necessarily imply "trimmed" although it might (and I think that's pretty plausible).

Well the 'last Zelda of its kind' was never actually said. It was from a fake interview or something. Aonuma hinted going down the PH route, whatever that means.

edit: Here's what Shiggy said.

Interestingly, Miyamoto also laments the fact that Zelda: Twilight Princess has not been a huge success in Japan. "... to be honest with you, Zelda: Twilight Princess is not doing very well at all in Japan. It is very disappointing. But it is doing okay here in America," he said, perhaps indicating that although the Wii has attracted new gamers in Japan, it has failed to retain many of the hardcore players.

http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/features/miyamoto-i-could-make-halo-but-i-choose-not-to/70377/

 

[Kosma]

Oh ok. Well I can certainly see them going down the streamlined path that PH seems to be (have to buy it still) with the next Zelda.

Thanks for the link Oblivion.

 

[charlequin]

there may still be time for them to get more of the buys-lots-of-games folk on-board.

I don't disagree, and while ethelred and Segata are less forgiving than I am, I don't think they do either.

Our collective point is that getting those people on board is going to require an actual effort (involving -- shock! -- some actual core games in a variety of genres) and that the ksamedi-style "everyone will come crawling back to Nintendo on the back of their hardware sales" stance is inaccurate at best -- as long as the handhelds are kicking ass, it really is possible for third parties to abandon consoles altogether if they have to.

 

[Eteric Rice]

I would have abandoned consoles a long time ago.

Seriously, DS is where the $$ is at the moment.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Fun Fact #1: People laughing at Okami sales on PS2. If Okami Wii sold the same as the PS2 version, it would be the 2nd best seller for 3rd parties on the system, just behind Dragon Quest Swords.

Fun Fact #2: 40GB PS3 weights the same as Wii Fit

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Microsoft has been winning this battle to at least some degree, despite being laughably irrelevant in the Japanese market, solely by shelling out hard cash yens in the right places; Nintendo has the funds to do the same, yet have clearly chosen not to.

MS is in the position to need to. Nintendo already has the exclusive output of the by-far-#1 publisher, and #2 is more onboard their systems than most. Does it really aid MS's position to have the third party support they're willing to buy? As the funds stop, so do the games.

 

[felipeko]

I think it's arguable. Nintendo's core-gamer titles doing uniformly worse in a system-over-system comparison is a really bad sign

So far:

Best Mario Party on GC: 902.827
Mario Party on Wii: 862.572

Paper Mario on GC: 409.600
Paper Mario on Wii: 532.306

Zelda on GC: 742.609
Zelda on Wii: 532.306

Warioware on GC: 404.237
Warioware on Wii: 470.698

Fire Emblem on GC: 156.413 
Fire Emblem on Wii: 153.197

Mario Strikers on GC: 191.993
Mario Strikers on Wii: 78.210

From http://www.japan-gamecharts.com/


I don't think it's really fair to say Nintendo games are doing uniformly worse, most of them will certainly beat their counterparts as Wii userbase will certainly beat GC userbase by a large margin...

 

[Weisheit]

I don't disagree, and while ethelred and Segata are less forgiving than I am, I don't think they do either.

Our collective point is that getting those people on board is going to require an actual effort (involving -- shock! -- some actual core games in a variety of genres) and that the ksamedi-style "everyone will come crawling back to Nintendo on the back of their hardware sales" stance is inaccurate at best -- as long as the handhelds are kicking ass, it really is possible for third parties to abandon consoles altogether if they have to.

So why should Nintendo care if these third parties are developing more for the DS than Wii? And lets be honest here, it's the DS that is "kicking ass" first and foremost.

 

[Lightning]

1) Price drop occurred on November 1st
2) New Elite shipments
3) Ace Combat 6

And Forza 2 and Viva Pinata bundled with every 360 sold.

 

[charlequin]

MS is in the position to need to.

My position (one that I believe has grown more and more strongly supported by the evidence) is that Nintendo is indeed also in the position to need to. Letting the invisible hand of the market do the work is building a Wii install base that aren't interested in software.

 

[Innotech]

Mario Galaxy sold 250k? thats pretty good.
Also great sales for AC6.

 

[birdchili]

getting those people on board is going to require an actual effort (involving -- shock! -- some actual core games in a variety of genres) and that the ksamedi-style "everyone will come crawling back to Nintendo on the back of their hardware sales" stance is inaccurate at best -- as long as the handhelds are kicking ass, it really is possible for third parties to abandon consoles altogether if they have to.

it's hard to read too much into it, i suppose, but the context of the monster hunter wii reveal somewhat suggests that there was more than just nintendo's goodwill involved.

nintendo is truely clueless if they aren't aware of the massive and increasing backlash from the hardcore community wrt wii games. there was a lot of initial derision from these circles, of course, but there was quite a bit of excitement about the controller possibilities as well - so much of this has faded, and the wii-collecting-dust meme is spreading.

 

[charlequin]

I don't think it's really fair to say Nintendo games are doing uniformly worse

You're right, but I didn't say that. The games that appeal to the new casual base (Wario Ware and Mario Party) are doing better, while the games that appeal to core, long-time gamers (Mario and Zelda) are doing worse.

You are right about Paper Mario; I could try to spin it and say "oh, well, it's kind of a different genre, sort of?" but it really is a counter-example. I don't think it's that significant in the face of the significant drops on Zelda and Mario, however.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Answer this question: where exactly did RE4 Wii Edition sell well ?

Good point. :|

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

My position (one that I believe has grown more and more strongly supported by the evidence) is that Nintendo is indeed also in the position to need to. Letting the invisible hand of the market do the work is building a Wii install base that aren't interested in software.

As evidenced by the tie ratio?

I don't think it's that significant in the face of the significant drops on Zelda and Mario, however.

And I know the Pope made a statement to the contrary and all, but I still don't think a 25% drop on Zelda is that bad considering the smaller userbase and being overshadowed by Wii Sports.

 

[Weisheit]

The battle to win is the one where you convince the third parties to make good games in the first place.

This is not Nintendo's "battle", maybe for MS and Sony this is important because they don't have the first party software to support a console by themselves.



You people have been saying "Nintendo must get better third party support for their home consoles" for years. Guess what DS and Wii say "hi there", both are MEGA successes without third parties.

You people want Nintendo to win a game they are no longer playing.