Graphics Horse
Member
If Wii Fit is a success, the first week sales are irrelevant, as they'll be a tiny fraction of the whole, whatever that ends up being.
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Media Create Sales 11/12 - 11/18 2007
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
Not to sound like an ass or anything, but wouldn't it be a tiny bit silly to go off assuming Wii Fit will do gangbusters in Japan at this point? I mean, granted, I'm new here, but I was definitely watching as everyone and their dog was just oh-so-certain that SMG would be the big hit in Japan and it would drive hardware sales into the stratosphere.
I agree mostly with what ccbfan or whatever his name is had to say on the demographics of the Wii userbase. I'd like to add that there is lots of reason to think that not only are casual Wii owners in Japan not buying lots of software, but there seems to be a lot of anecdotal evidence from all over the globe implying that there are large groups of people buying Wii's as an impulse purchase just beacuse they found one on shelves.
What if this type of consumer really was making up a big chunk of the Wii userbase in Japan? Play Devil's advocate for a second...if that were the case, and if these consumers acted like typical impulse shoppers (meaning they buy the thing, use it for a month, then never care about it ever again), should we really assume an somewhat expensive new game/boogy board is going to fly off shelves? Should we really assume these consumers are going to jump at a new, pricey sku? Will they care about Wii Fit? And what if the users there are mostly casual impulse shopping consumers whose biggest driving force in sales is shortage hype? Could that help explain why Wii sales dropped suddenly over the summer from as high as 110k one week to as low as 20k in another coincidentally right after the Japanese retailers started having the console be readily available?
Hmmmm...
I agree mostly with what ccbfan or whatever his name is had to say on the demographics of the Wii userbase. I'd like to add that there is lots of reason to think that not only are casual Wii owners in Japan not buying lots of software, but there seems to be a lot of anecdotal evidence from all over the globe implying that there are large groups of people buying Wii's as an impulse purchase just beacuse they found one on shelves.
What if this type of consumer really was making up a big chunk of the Wii userbase in Japan? Play Devil's advocate for a second...if that were the case, and if these consumers acted like typical impulse shoppers (meaning they buy the thing, use it for a month, then never care about it ever again), should we really assume an somewhat expensive new game/boogy board is going to fly off shelves? Should we really assume these consumers are going to jump at a new, pricey sku? Will they care about Wii Fit? And what if the users there are mostly casual impulse shopping consumers whose biggest driving force in sales is shortage hype? Could that help explain why Wii sales dropped suddenly over the summer from as high as 110k one week to as low as 20k in another coincidentally right after the Japanese retailers started having the console be readily available?
Hmmmm...
So your theory is we should predict all other games on a given system will perform exactly like the last game released, whatever it is, regardless of circumstances, genre, advertising, or whatever? SMG performed below expectations so therefore all Wii games for the rest of time will perform below whatever arbitrary expectations anyone might have?Berieve said:
I don't care for this theory.
Great Rumbler
Member
Berieve said:
Because WiiFit directly relates to Wii Sports, arguably the number one reason for the Wii's success. SMG, despite it's greatness, does not.
On the other hand, we'll probably have to wait a few months to know for sure either way.
Graphics Horse
Member
Berieve said:
Availability would naturally increase as the sales dropped, surely?
Edit: oh you said the other way round, I see. There is an argument to it, panic buying is a genuine phenomena.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
I dunno about you, but I'm thinking... FafGolf.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Mario is a lost cause. It might eek out at over a million, but it will be a long wait there. Console Mario seems to have no pull in Japan anymore at all, regardless of quality.Lobster said:
Graphics Horse
Member
sp0rsk said:
Mario games are mostly enjoyed by fat plumbers, who could do with getting fitter.
You know it makes sense.
Only until mods change my tag again I fear. Who knows, maybe I'll be "doesn't even know one golf from another" next...ethelred said:
Some names are just too dangerous - title like that could lead to economic collapse of Japan with everyone buying just that.Segata Sanshiro said:
Great Rumbler said:
Ok, but if you are that type of consumer, chances are you got interested in Wii to begin with because of Wii Sports. Wouldn't you agree? So if these casuals got a Wii, wouldn't they be a lot more inclined to buy the much cheaper Wii Sports and maybe toss on Wii Play for the added controller than buying Wii Fit? I completely agree about Wii Sports being THE driving force behind Wii thus far. What I am saying is that we have yet to really see any competition for said title in terms of its appeal to those consumers.
Is Wii Fit catereing to multiplayer experience btw? I don't know a lot about the game itself to be honest. Judging by the fact that Wii Play seems to sell hand in hand as an add-on to Wii Sports (due to it being the only significantly popular multiplayer game on Wii atm), I am more inclined to think that maybe the owners there would stil favor Wii Sports over Wii Fit. And we have a good idea the "real gamers" there aren't going to buy Wii Fit, so who does that leave to buy it en masse as expected?
The Sphinx said:
No, I'm saying after what happened with SMG, it is silly to just automatically assume that consumers there will jump all over the next highly marketed game in Japan. Honestly, pretty much everyone here just "knew" SMG would be just the ticket to bring slumping Wii sales back from the dead and restore its weekly dominance to the heights it was at before. My theory is that a lot more of the casual Wii owners in Japan might very well have no intention of picking up their Wii again anytime soon and if they really are impulse shoppers, then Wii Fit likely wouldn't make a huge impact either.
I have my reasons for believing my theory is correct. I won't assume it is, but on the other hand I've been confident enough to make crazy predictions based purely on its implications. I seem to recall one relating quite heavily to how big an impact SMG would have on the Japanes market and I was probably the only person not disappointed.
: )
Graphics Horse said:
I think people don't want to admit there may be something to that notion purely because the only other kinds of products this type of marketing is successfully applied to are...well, I'll just be coy and say there is a term for products like that and it isn't the most popular thing to use when referring to the Nintendo Wii. :/
The Sphinx said:
Maybe I should have put it differently. What I should have said was that Wii software sales aren't variable at all. They are almost exclusively casual games as it seems nothing else has any legs. Less casual titles can be marketed to high heaven and have huge brand names behind their product, they have a nice debut, then fade away soon after. To be maybe a bit more specific on my theory, I believe there are some Nintendo fans and/or hardcore gamers there who buy the more traditional styled games on their debut. However, the software sales clearly imply that these consumers are vastly being outnumbered by the group who only seems to care about Wii Sports and Wii Play.
And no, my theory doesn't rest on that at all. I have a luandry list of items that support the formation of my theory and again it has, in fact, made testable predictions that have come true. What's more telling perhaps is that these predictions were both incredibly radical (SMG not selling as expected, Wii hardware sales struggling greatly to pick up steam and climb out of their rut despite SMG or other big new titles) and were considered insane and whatnot before SMG's release. People I shared my theory with before SMG's release called me mad. Afterards, they assured me it would do gangbusters once the holiday kicked in and it would have "legendary legs". They also maintain it will blow past Sunshine's sales in the region. We will see about that.
Maybe it is time people stopped assuming Wii will sell gangbusters forever and start looking at what sells the console and whom it sells to and their buying habits.
All I am saying is that my ideas are well supported and while that is certainly open to debate, my testable predictions about SMG and Wii in Japan based on this theory are not. After SMG, I feel my theory is on much better footing atm than people who assume the Japanese market will react a certain way to new products directly after they were mistaken about SMG's impact.
We will have to wait and see if my theory is proven wrong or not. But I do feel the otucome of such "insane" predictions should grant it at least some consideration.
Berieve said:
If Wii sales have been dead, then where are all the other console sales? Fossilized? I'll say again - WiiFit preorders have been the number 1 seller on amazon.co.jp for two weeks running. Prior to that, they were sold out. WiiFit will be huge. We'll find out soon enough.
gkrykewy said:
I'm not sure there is a word for describing them in the region, lol. 360 especially. PS3 has started to become more relevant there though. Not sure how long that will keep it ahead of Wii however. Either way, going from selling 300k-400k a month to selling 100k a month is a massive drop off.
You could argue that September was jsut a bad month for all consoles, and it was. However, both 360 and PS3 ended up coming out of that slump higher than they went in. The Wii, on the other hand, was selling up to 80% less than it was before the slump and even with SMG and RE: UC having relatively nice debuts, the hardware sales are still struggling to keep their head above the 30k mark. I wouldn't be surprised if they dropped to around 30k next week and below 27k the next. Before long we will be back to them hitting a little over 100k for the month.
And really though, amazon.com? Come on now. It seems people expect Wii Fit to be the next Wii Sports and puch sales back up to the 80k/week marks it had in early summer. What if it doesn't move the hardware sales needle much? What if it can't push hardware sales past, say 45k, in its debut? Do we all automatically start chanting about how it will have legendary legs like people did here about SMG before it started dropping significantly? Or is there a method to all this that can be better understood?
BishopLamont
Banned
Berieve said:
You said it yourself casual software sells, WiiFit is the ultimate casual game right next to Wii Sports, so it's not abnormal for people to expect it to sell the same as Wii Sports. Like I said before though, will it sell to this Wii Sports crowd only or will it actually push hardware into new customers. It's being marketed as part of the Wii line-up, and you know everything with Wii in it's title sells well, even RE4:Wii!
The Sphinx said:
Are those tears in your SMG-related avy?
Kidding aside, no, I'm not trolling anything. I just saying we shouldn't go assuming the Wii's next hyped title will automatically dominate the known universe. Especially after SMG. Are you arguing that SMG did as well as you expected? Maybe you weren't in the hundreds of people here who expected it to sell out its 700k retail pre-orders. I don't know your post history on the topic to be honest. Maybe you also predicted it would sell slower than Sunshine and not have any significant impact on hardware sales (?). If so, you can ignore me.
No, I don't think SMG did as well as Nintendo expected, I've been very vocal in expressing my disappointment in the sales of that title. I am also disappointed in the sales of a long list of other titles on the Wii AND ON OTHER SYSTEMS, which leads me to express doubts about the health of the console industry overall in Japan. I don't attempt to draw some magical wall around Wii and make dire predictions for one machine based on forum hype or whatever.Berieve said:Are those tears in your SMG-related avy?
Kidding aside, no, I'm not trolling anything. I just saying we shouldn't go assuming the Wii's next hyped title will automatically dominate the known universe. Especially after SMG. Are you arguing that SMG did as well as you expected? Maybe you weren't in the hundreds of people here who expected it to sell out its 700k retail pre-orders. I don't know your post history on the topic to be honest. Maybe you also predicted it would sell slower than Sunshine and not have any significant impact on hardware sales (?). If so, you can ignore me.
The Wii, PS3, and 360 ALL look lackluster, and the PS2 is dying. Wii Sports isn't the only blockbuster title on Wii: It's the only blockbuster title on ANY home system in Japan right now. Expressing this as Nintendo's problem, and singling out SMG as some exceptional failure without peer, is flawed analysis.
BishopLamont said:
RE 4: Wii isn't anything to bet the farm on, lol. It more likely sold because it was a re-relese of the game that Gamecube owners last gen latched onto as their crown jewel for defense against comments questioning GC 3rd party support. It might as well be a 1st party game. Capcom found the 3rd party loophole on the Wii.
I agree that Wii Fit is a very casual/non-game title. However, for I'm not so sure it will push hardware much. It isn't focused on the social aspect of the game is it? I truly do't know much about it. Does it have multiplayer? If not, I can't see the non-gamers who bought Wii Sports and Wii Play specifically for the social experience with other people to latch onto it necessarily. And what if my theory on many users there being impulse shoppers were true? IF that were true then chances are once the shortages went away, so did the sales (as I noted in another post regarding the Wii drop off lately).
And if these buyers aren't using their Wii anymore (common behavior for impulse shoppers among any industry), what chance is there that they will pull it out of the closet, dust it off, and get Wii Fit for it? And in that sense, wouldn't you agree that a lot of Wii's sales potential is affected by casuals seeing other casuals playing the console? And if these current Wii owners don't buy Wii Fit, what would compel a prospective Wii owner to buy one for the game when Wii Sports is cheaper and is much more social and is much better branded in the region by now?
Granted, my expectations (note I'm not stating assumptions, just conjecture at this point) are based on my theory being correct. But I have a lot of indications that support my theory's formation ranging from implications from fiscal reports to publisher murmurs to interpretting corporate language from Iwata himself. I could be wrong though. Maybe my theory is flawed but it does seem to explain a whole lot of things in that particular market that the "conventional wisdom" echoed by NeoGaf does not.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
I'm not really interested in the argument on the whole, but this particular bit is about the most idiotic reason anyone has ever put forth for RE4Wii's modest success. Barring a late entry from a kamikaze-ing joke character, I think it'll be the most idiotic reason anyone ever will put forth.Berieve said:
You can't honestly believe this, can you?
The Sphinx said:
Why are you assuming I only think the Wii is dissappointing in Japan? Did I not note in another post that all consoles there are doing very poorly over all? Yes, I certainly did. Maybe you didn't see that since I think it was in response to someone else. And again, you make claims that I said that SMG is some collossal failure "without peer" and everything else is just rosy. You would certainly have a tough time quoting me on that I think. I DO think Nintendo has a unique problem on their hands though. And you are free to dissagree with that. But didn't YOU accuse me of trolling merely because I said it didn't sell as expected? If you agree with taht, how was I trolling SMG? I'm just trying to find ways to explain why this massive drop off happened conveniently right after supply was no longer an issue there. And after looking at a whole lot of other evidence, I came up with an explanation. It may be completely wrong. But it is a heck of a lot mroe solid
At the risk of upsetting you more, I am going to remind you that while you dismiss my ideas for whatever reasons, they at the very least had a testable prediction that you admit you didn't see coming. And it did in fact prevail quite honorably.
So, again, my point is that you really shouldn't tell the same people who were right about SMG that they automatically know less about the Japanese market than you do regarding Wii Fit. You surely could have made the same arguments just before SMG released, and it most definitely would have been incorrect. I'm just saying, keep and open mind. You never know. Don't assume anything. Form expectations on fact and logic and let your ideas be malleable under stress.
Let's just agree to disagree for the moment. : )
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
So put your balls on the table and make a fuckin prediction already if you fuckers know so much.
1st day
1st week
1st year
Lifetime
1st day
1st week
1st year
Lifetime
Segata Sanshiro said:
Yes, I do. I believe a lot of early adopters on Wii who were die hard Nintendo fans and got the game at launch with Zelda or whatnot were also die hard Gamecube fans who heralded RE 4 last generation. Not that the game doesn't deserve success, while I was not happy with the title on GC it is a fact that my personal opinion on it is in the vast minority. So don't get me wrong, I acknowledge it is seen as a great Wii game, but honestly I can see the game selling well because of its branding and relation to RE 4 on the last console these consumers owned.
Is it really so odd to say that the iconic 3rd party success story for these same gamers from last gen could sell well because it had high brand recognition among these people today? What is so wrong with RE 4's brand recognition selling it on Wii after its success on GC? Why would you say it sold well?
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
berieve: make a prediction or shut your fuckin trap already.
PantherLotus said:
I made a prediction for SMG already well in advance of its debut. I have no problems with making predictions. Though I'm not sure what Wii Fit will do early on. I will say that I do expect it to underperform what the vast majority of people here will predict. Not sure on the numbers just yet. But I can say I would be surprised if it pushed Wii hardware sales above 45k in week 1.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
stalling = banning
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Berieve said:
so you're saying that you know so much but you don't really know shit, or you know shit and are trying to avoid proving it? i'm unclear here.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Why in the name of the Taru Christ would Nintendo fans have special loyalty to a multiplatform game? Did you not see Viewtiful Joe 2 get burned to the ground after VJ stopped being a Nintendo exclusive? You're putting out crazy theories that you can't possibly substantiate in any way, shape, or form, and they aren't even remotely logically sound.Berieve said:
Why would I say it sold well? Because it was a high profile game that was refitted to use the controls in a very good way, released during a period of drought for decent software on the system at a reduced price. That's my theory. I myself bought the game, and hadn't bought it before on my PS2 or on my GC. Why did I buy it? Because fuck all else was coming out at the time, I hadn't played it, and it was cheap.
PantherLotus said:
Sure thing buddy, lol. I made a prediction for the relevant part of the above dicussions. 45k for hardware sales that week. It is stupid for anyone to make predictions for first year or lifetime sales of anything before it's even released. There is nothing analytic about that. It is purely guess work and based on essentially no facts whatsoever that way. You just can't see THAT far ahead to see the conditions of the market at those points.
Since you insist on acting like a jerk, may I ask what you predicted SMG to debut at? Or did you not want to "put your balls on the able"? Perhaps there wasn't enough room on the table with all of GAF making predictions of it selling through its initial shipment and pushing hardware sales sky high. Luckily for you, it would seem most of those balls were chopped right off after SMG's debut and there will be more room on the table for you this time.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
And yet, publishers do this all the time. That's sort of how they decide what to greenlight and at what cost. It's impossible to predict with total accuracy, but it's far from pure guesswork. But I guess any sufficiently advanced technology will appear to be magic to the commonfolk, so feel free to accuse the people who manage to predict software pretty accurately in our NPD software predictions thread of practicing witchcraft.Berieve said:
Segata Sanshiro said:
High profile? Are you serously arguing that "high profile" and "strong brand name" are two completely different things? And GC fans didn't see RE 4 as a multiplatform game last gen. To them, it was their big 3rd party game to fight against all claims of bad 3rd party support for the console last gen. It was their designated hitter. It was well after release that it became a PS2 game.
Tell me why the FF remakes sold on DS please. It was a remake/re-relese put out to consumers who almost definitely had fond memories of FFVI or whatnot from the SNES days. It sold on brand name recognition too. It didn't add anything completely new that made it stand out among other DS releases. So how can it possibly sell?
And I don't recall VJ being touted by GC fans at all last gen for anything. It didn't sell enough to support their claims of the console having healthy 3rd party support.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Berieve said:Sure thing buddy, lol. I made a prediction for the relevant part of the above dicussions. 45k for hardware sales that week. It is stupid for anyone to make predictions for first year or lifetime sales of anything before it's even released. There is nothing analytic about that. It is purely guess work and based on essentially no facts whatsoever that way. You just can't see THAT far ahead to see the conditions of the market at those points.
Since you insist on acting like a jerk, may I ask what you predicted SMG to debut at? Or did you not want to "put your balls on the able"? Perhaps there wasn't enough room on the table with all of GAF making predictions of it selling through its initial shipment and pushing hardware sales sky high. Luckily for you, it would seem most of those balls were chopped right off after SMG's debut and there will be more room on the table for you this time.
If I was out there making ridiculous assumptions and bold blanket statements about an entire demographic, I would be happy to make a prediction. But I'm not the schmuck making such statements, am I?
Berieve said:
I know Nintendo fans are often accused of cultishness, and frankly, sometimes they do scare me a bit. But I think you're ascribing unto them a bit too great a hive minded nature. They're not a collective to this magnitude.
Berieve said:
Really? This is why it sold? ... Really?
Would you maybe care to rethink this one?
perfectchaos007
Member
Wii Fit
You Cannot blame
Call it what you want
But don't call it a game!
You can play it in your house
You can play it in your dorm
It is gonna take Japan by Storm!
You're gonna feel the burn from head to toe
It's the latest and greatest from Miyamoto!
Wikiwik!
You Cannot blame
Call it what you want
But don't call it a game!
You can play it in your house
You can play it in your dorm
It is gonna take Japan by Storm!
You're gonna feel the burn from head to toe
It's the latest and greatest from Miyamoto!
Wikiwik!
Segata Sanshiro
Member
No, high profile and strong brand name are not different, and that's not what I'm saying, but I suppose I wasn't clear enough. You're suggesting that Resident Evil 4 is a strong brand name qua Nintendo brand; I'm saying Resident Evil is a strong brand name qua video game franchise. Everything else you're saying, I regret to say, is your own completely unsupported view of the situation. See, I seem to recall Nintendo fans threatening to cut people's fucking heads off when RE4 was announced, before the Cube version even came out, as being ported to the PS2 with extra features. I also recall many Nintendo fans at that point swearing to Yamauchi in heaven that they would no longer be supporting the title.Berieve said:
As for why the FF remakes sold on GBA/DS, it's because they are Final Fantasy games. In the case of FF3 it was a massive remake of a game that hadn't been re-released since the NES days and never did see an English release until now. The Advance games all had added content. Yes, there is nostalgia connected to those titles, but I think you're placing far too much weight on the hardware portion of that nostalgia. It isn't about them having been on a Nintendo system.
You know, unless you want to argue that Final Fantasy VII on the DS wouldn't put up similar numbers. Which you might, because you seem to be a fan of stupid arguments.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
I would buy 2 copies of FFVII on the DS, day one.
touch-screen materia change? FUCK YES
touch-screen materia change? FUCK YES
Berieve said:
I agree that part of its success was due to brand name, but:
- it DID stand out among other DS releases
- it was a full remake of a really old title that wasn't remade at all (there was a poll for possible FF remakes and it was the one they chose)
- it is the only FF remake on DS so far, so we can't see a trend yet; who knows, maybe the FFIV remake won't do as well, since it was remade 3-4 times already (although the added features and marketing should help)
- the GBA remakes didn't sell nearly as good as FFIII DS, so I don't see nostalgia being a strong factor here
Phife Dawg
Member
Too bad berieve is already banned, he was off to such a good start. Only the good die young .
.Isn't he from Jump Magazine though?SailorDaravon said: