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Media Create Sales 2/18 - 2/24

kswiston

Member
Saitou said:
I like how they shipped more Limited Editions of the new Idolm@ster game than the regular one.

Makes sense given the game's audience, but I do agree that it is humourous that the regular edition will probably be more limited than the limited edition.

Looks like we will have a new first place on the MC charts next week for the first time in a month. I wonder if Japan will ever get sick of Gundam (or musou) games.
 
PantherLotus said:
CHART FRENZY RESUME

mc-marketshare-pie-65.jpg


mc-marketshare-line-65.jpg

Is it just an impression, or Wii's market share is starting to rise again ?
 
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
First day numbers

PS2 Gundam Musou Special - 76,000 (150k shipped)
NDS Soma Bringer - 37,000 (~50% sell through)
360 Idolmaster Live For You - 30,000 (LE 28k (~75% sell through), Normal Edition just 2k (~20% sell through))

Not bad for Soma Bringer. After all it's a new franchise.
 

ag-my001

Member
Mithos Yggdrasill said:
Is it just an impression, or Wii's market share is starting to rise again ?
It's rising. The 360 % will almost always be dropping (slowly), and the recent drop of the PS3 causes the level Wii sales to take a larger piece of the pie.
 

Vinnk

Member
bcn-ron said:

Are there still any backwards-compatible machines left on the Japanese market? [/QUOTE]

Yes.

In my town, I haven't seen a new 20GB model for a while (a few used ones) but at least half of the stores still have 60GB systems. There are also Minna No Golf bundles available at both Yamada Denki and Wanpaku. Not sure about Tokyo and Osaka though.

Another factor that might be causing a slowdown in hardware sales for both the PS3 and the DS is the abundance of used systems. At each store that sells used games there are usually about 3-5 PS3s and 15-30 DS systems. At first the used DSs were selling for almost new prices but now you can get a used system for about 5000 yen less than a new system. For that one kid on the block that still dosen't have a DS, that used one is I'm sure fine for him. And the hardcore otaku (at least the ones I know), despite buying tons of games often don't have very high paying jobs, or still live at home. They'll buy used if they can. The Wii demographic on the other hand dosen't buy games at game stores they buy them at department stores that don't sell used games or systems.

I have no data to back this up. Just an observation.
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
NintendosBooger said:
Scary thing about the Wii is that it hasn't even played the price-drop or new-color card yet.
Right, but we all know Nintendogs is their main card. Press A+B to catch the frisbee, send it where you want. I don't know, I just see it being as much a system seller as the DS version is.
 

cvxfreak

Member
marc^o^ said:
Right, but we all know Nintendogs is their main card. Press A+B to catch the frisbee, send it where you want. I don't know, I just see it being as much a system seller as the DS version is.

Wait - they announced this?
 

Neomoto

Member
Wii is doing pretty excellent. Glad brawl continues to sell well. Family Ski is doing very good actually, guess the Wii Balance Board usage is showing results. WE Wii (lol?) doing better than I thought it would do. Seems like Nintendo got all Wii sides covered covered this week.

PS3 doing pretty bad, DS is getting weaker, I think it could use the next big thing (software release) right about now.
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
cvxfreak said:
Wait - they announced this?
Nope, but knowing Nintendogs was first a GC project and seing a fully animated dog in Brawl... there's little doubt it will happen, don't you think?
 

Vinci

Danish
There is no way in all imagination that Nintendogs is not coming to the Wii. If they're going to follow the DS's playbook, it's a definite must-have title for them either this year or next.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Mithos Yggdrasill said:
Is it just an impression, or Wii's market share is starting to rise again ?

No, it definitely is gaining, albeit at small amounts. The PS3 has pretty clearly flatlined at the moment also, with no markeshare at all to take from the 360 as it approaches the mystical barrier between 5% and n-gage levels of irrelevance. The bigger problem is that the PS3 will never, ever gain marketshare once as the 360 approaches zero until the PS3 starts outselling the Wii.
 

kswiston

Member
marc^o^ said:
Nope, but knowing Nintendogs was first a GC project and seing a fully animated dog in Brawl... there's little doubt it will happen, don't you think?

I think there's a ton of doubt it will happen. A fully animated dog in Brawl doesn't mean anything. Pokemon have been in smash since the beginning, and we have yet to see a proper 3-D Pokemon RPG on consoles. Why would Nintendo settle for one potential sale per household, when they could have multiple potential sales per household with a portable version of the game that doesn't let kids share (and probably costs a fraction as much to develop)?
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
kswiston said:
I think there's a ton of doubt it will happen. A fully animated dog in Brawl doesn't mean anything. Pokemon have been in smash since the beginning, and we have yet to see a proper 3-D Pokemon RPG on consoles. Why would Nintendo settle for one potential sale per household, when they could have multiple potential sales per household with a portable version of the game that doesn't let kids share (and probably costs a fraction as much to develop)?
Because one console is on a calm, direct route to 100 million sales, whereas the other competes with 2 next gen beasts, and needs a BIG system seller title to follow Mario Galaxy, Mario Kart, Smash Bros and WiiFit releases?
 

felipeko

Member
marc^o^ said:
Because one console is on a calm, direct route to 100 million sales, whereas the other competes with 2 next gen beasts, and needs a BIG system seller title to follow Mario Galaxy, Mario Kart, Smash Bros and WiiFit releases?
Needs?

And wouldn't that be Animal Crossing?
 

Vinci

Danish
felipeko said:
Needs?

And wouldn't that be Animal Crossing?

If AC is, in fact, going the MMO route, its popularity might seriously drop since there are many gamers (particularly in consoles) with no interest in that style of gaming. Unless of course it's free to play it online; in which case, it should do awesome.

I don't know, I haven't kept up with the AC for Wii at this juncture. Still seems a ways away.
 

kswiston

Member
PantherLotus said:
No, it definitely is gaining, albeit at small amounts. The PS3 has pretty clearly flatlined at the moment also, with no markeshare at all to take from the 360 as it approaches the mystical barrier between 5% and n-gage levels of irrelevance. The bigger problem is that the PS3 will never, ever gain marketshare once as the 360 approaches zero until the PS3 starts outselling the Wii.

PS3 doesn't need to top Wii sales to gain market share. It just has to be beaten by a smaller margin each week.

For the sake of easy to work with numbers, lets say that LTD sales of the Wii are 6M by the time PS3 sales hit 2M. Ignoring the 360, the Wii would have a LTD market share of 75% and the PS3 would have a LTD market share of 25% at that point.

Now lets consider two scenarios.

Scenario 1: Wii continues to outsell PS3 3 to 1 in the future.
- In this scenario, the Wii will have sold 12M units by the time PS3 hits 4M. LTD market share between the two systems would remain at 75% for the Wii and 25% for the PS3.

Scenario 2: PS3 gains some ground and the Wii only outsells the PS3 2 to 1 in the future.
- In this scenario, the Wii will have sold 10M units by the time PS3 hits 4M. LTD market share between the systems is now 71.4% Wii to 28.5% PS3.

So even though the Wii was still doubling the sales of the PS3 on average each week, it ended up losing market share in the second scenario.
 
PantherLotus said:
The bigger problem is that the PS3 will never, ever gain marketshare once as the 360 approaches zero until the PS3 starts outselling the Wii.
As long as its weekly share versus Wii is greater than the total share between itself and Wii, it will see improvement in the total. Selling 40% as well as Wii would gain it marketshare.
 

donny2112

Member
PantherLotus said:
DONNY112 REQUEST IMMEDIATE CHART POST NOW

I put them up at the website last night.


Famitsu Feb 11-17

1. WII Super Smash Bros. Brawl 165288 / 1247632
2. WII Wii Fit 75870 / 1450509
3. PS2 Poison Pink 47178 / NEW
4. NDS Tokimeki Memorial Girl's Side 2nd Season 35173 / NEW
5. PS2 KimiKiss (BEST) 34496 / NEW
6. PSP Kidou Senshi Gundam: Giren no Yabou - Axis no Kyoui 26487 / 134601
7. NDS Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 19709 / 221540
8. WII Wii Sports 18807 / 2750365
9. NDS Naruto Shippuden: Dairansen! Kage Bunsen Emaki 17994 / NEW
10. NDS Digimon Championship 17812 / NEW
11. PS3 Devil May Cry 4 17714 / 266293
12. WII Wii Play 14929 / 2198039
13. NDS Mario Party DS 14713 / 1606640
14. PSP Monster Hunter Portable 2 12434 / 1625501
15. NDS Mario Kart DS 12427 / 2845987
16. NDS L: The Prologue to Death Note - Rasen no Wana 11809 / 29267
17. WII Family Ski 10976 / 49135
18. NDS Hokuto no Ken: Hokuto Shinken Denshousha no Michi 10895 / NEW
19. PSP World Soccer Winning Eleven Ubiquitous Edition 2008: PES 2008 9575 / 117331
20. PS3 Assassin's Creed 8897 / 59954
21. PS2 Tales of Destiny: Director's Cut 8741 / 122971
22. NDS New Super Mario Bros. 7542 / 5090224
23. NDS Prof. Layton and the Devil's Box 7444 / 753813
24. PS3 Disgaea 3 7422 / 75593
25. NDS Observation Training 6387 / 790655
26. NDS Animal Crossing: Wild World 6283 / 4591235
27. WII Super Mario Galaxy 5868 / 872463 (sales until Mario 64: 767K)
28. NDS Taiko Drum Master 5838 / 328437
29. NDS Kanji Brain 2 + Dictionary 5732 / 180742
30. WII Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 5708 / 510465

*. PSP Medal of Honor Heroes 2 5300 / NEW
*. NDS Otometeki Koi Kakumei * Love Revo!! DS 4800 / NEW
*. PS3 WWE SmackDown! vs. RAW 2008 3900 / NEW
*. PS2 WWE SmackDown! vs. RAW 2008 3800 / NEW
*. PS2 D.C.: Da Capo - The Origin 3700 / NEW
*. WII Medal of Honor Heroes 2 3000 / NEW
*. 360 WWE SmackDown! vs. RAW 2008 1100 / NEW


Recent Famitsu Top 30s

Jan 14-20, 2008
Jan 21-27, 2008
Jan 28-Feb 3, 2008
Feb 4-10, 2008



* KimiKiss (the original release) started off at 40.5K, so the re-release might match the original's total. :lol
* Disgaea 3 is now tracking behind the original release and looks to follow the general trend of the PS3 shrinking the sell-through for PS2 franchises. This is obviously not surprising (DMC4 what?) considering the smaller size/growth of the userbase.
* I think it's been clear for weeks/months that Super Mario Galaxy will not surpass Mario 64. Me = (somewhat) sad
 

Vinci

Danish
Hey, Donny, out of curiosity ... are you still estimating the Wii to sell only in the mid-30 millions by 2011? Or have you upped your forecast?
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
BrodiemanTTR said:
Nintendo only shipped ~70k copies of Soma Bringer? >:/

I wouldn't put much stock in that, actually. There will be a re-ship very shortly assuming the game sells through its first shipment quickly.

Remember that the first shipment of Soma Bringer also had bonus soundtrack sampler CDs accompanying approx 50% of the shipment.

Again, I personally expect 250k-300k lifetime. 150k is guaranteed, and everything after that is my personal optimism :D
 

ksamedi

Member
So when are people going to understand that publishers don't decide how much they will ship, retailers decide this. If retailers want the product for some reason they will order and publishers can ship.
 

donny2112

Member
Vinci said:
Hey, Donny, out of curiosity ... are you still estimating the Wii to sell only in the mid-30 millions by 2011? Or have you upped your forecast?

Just to be sure we're on the same page, that's U.S. only. Also, I made that last June (after Pachter said that GAF posters lacked the ability to do long-term forecasts).

All that aside, I'd probably go a little higher now. I had the Wii basically being sold out until 2009, and I haven't seen much to make me change my mind on that. However, the shipments have grown faster than I thought they would. I'd still peg it at < 40 million through 2011 in the U.S., though. For reference, the PS2 was at 32.4 million in the same timespan.
 

Vinci

Danish
donny2112 said:
Just to be sure we're on the same page, that's U.S. only. Also, I made that last June (after Pachter said that GAF posters lacked the ability to do long-term forecasts).

All that aside, I'd probably go a little higher now. I had the Wii basically being sold out until 2009, and I haven't seen much to make me change my mind on that. However, the shipments have grown faster than I thought they would. I'd still peg it at < 40 million through 2011 in the U.S., though. For reference, the PS2 was at 32.4 million in the same timespan.

Oh, I wasn't calling you out on it or anything, just asking for an update on your analysis. I think that sounds reasonable. :)
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
ksamedi said:
So when are people going to understand that publishers don't decide how much they will ship, retailers decide this. If retailers want the product for some reason they will order and publishers can ship.

It's a bit of both. It's an integrated process.

- Sometimes retailers order too much and the distributor can't fill orders
- Sometimes retailers order large amounts and the distributor opts to fill with two week-one shipments instead of one pre-release shipment.
- Sometimes retailers don't order much and the distributor offers an incentive package (order more of these and we'll give you a higher allocation of Fart Training: How Smelly Are Your Farts?)

- In general, retailers prefer 1-2 weeks of stock in terms of how liquid they want their supply to be. Distributors prefer lower liquidity (IE higher but more infrequent shipments) since they can ship tons and then forget about it and switch up their fab lines--it also gives them a boost because if the product bombs, they still get the money although there are also consequences in terms of retailer confidence if this happens.

But yeah, you're right. Retailers have a much bigger part in the buying process than most GAF posts give them credit for.
 
Stumpokapow said:
- Sometimes retailers order too much and the distributor can't fill orders

By "distributors" do you mean publishers here? Isn't there a three-tier model in Japan like there is in the US?

Fart Training: How Smelly Are Your Farts?

One million copies, day one.
 

Jiggy

Member
beef3483 said:
Your greatest fear is my greatest hope. Portables are damn near irrelevant to me.
I think eventually we'll have a converged portable/home console future anyway. (But I guess it's worth mentioning that I also thought that by now laptops would surely have rendered desktop computers moot--or at least moved much further in that direction than they have.)


Kurosaki Ichigo said:
First day numbers

NDS Soma Bringer - 37,000 (~50% sell through)
My first inclination is to say that it's not too shabby for something unproven--but without too much knowledge of what the development costs and time were, there's not really enough to say. Either way, hoping that positive word of mouth can push the game forward.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
charlequin said:
By "distributors" do you mean publishers here? Isn't there a three-tier model in Japan like there is in the US?

Distributor would mean publisher in this context. My comments could be generalized to most large scale retail product distribution/supply processes, so I kept it at "distributor". I don't think video games have used intermediary distributors in the US or Japan since the mid 80s.
 

MisterHero

Super Member
Yes I think it's very good for Nintendo that both a non-game and a core game are dominating the sales charts. :lol
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
ksamedi said:
I think wholesalers have a part in this as well. Thats what Iwata said in there general financial briefing.

In general, a wholesaler deals with independent stores and small chains, as well as large chains who don't generally stock video games and thus don't have their supply chains rigged up for games.

Now, back in the day (mid 80s or earlier) wholesalers had a much larger role. This is why if you check out game release dates from that time, you only get a year or at most a month. There was no such thing as a simultaneous national release because game companies had to fight tooth and nail to set up supply chains.

Honestly, I really wish more stuff would be written about this. Supply chain stuff is so arcane and without getting inside a company you can't really learn the secrets of it. If there are any supply guys reading this who want to violate their employment contracts, I'd be happy to be serenaded with your stories!
 

iidesuyo

Member
No one knows what the future will bring. PS3 may sell like shit today, but that can change. Comparisons with the past are useless, the industry as a whole is still young. No one (very few) would have expected the Wii to roll over the PS3, no one would have expected the PSP to launch a comeback.

The PS3 needs a revision and price cut THIS YEAR, and things will become interesting again... if not, it's fucked.
 

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
iidesuyo said:
No one knows what the future will bring. PS3 may sell like shit today, but that can change. Comparisons with the past are useless, the industry as a whole is still young. No one (very few) would have expected the Wii to roll over the PS3, no one would have expected the PSP to launch a comeback.

The PS3 needs a revision and price cut THIS YEAR, and things will become interesting again... if not, it's fucked.

Yeah some come back by that PSP...
 

MisterHero

Super Member
iidesuyo said:
No one knows what the future will bring. PS3 may sell like shit today, but that can change. Comparisons with the past are useless, the industry as a whole is still young. No one (very few) would have expected the Wii to roll over the PS3, no one would have expected the PSP to launch a comeback.

The PS3 needs a revision and price cut THIS YEAR, and things will become interesting again... if not, it's fucked.
No they aren't.

No one wanted to buy a 3DO or a Neo-Geo for their ridiculously high prices.

That logic is what brought the Wii to first.

It the PS3/360 make a comeback at their current prices, they are getting away with something more than actually succeeding.

PSP isn't that much more expensive than DS, so it's doing fine for now.
 

vanguardian1

poor, homeless and tasteless
iidesuyo said:
No one knows what the future will bring. PS3 may sell like shit today, but that can change. Comparisons with the past are useless, the industry as a whole is still young. No one (very few) would have expected the Wii to roll over the PS3, no one would have expected the PSP to launch a comeback.

The PS3 needs a revision and price cut THIS YEAR, and things will become interesting again... if not, it's fucked.

The problem with the PSP is that it's comeback has little relevance with it being a gaming device, and if the same happens with the PS3, the software library would begun to whittle down like it has with the PSP.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
iidesuyo said:
The PS3 needs a revision and price cut THIS YEAR, and things will become interesting again... if not, it's fucked.

People said that about last year. What makes your position more tenable than theirs?
 
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