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[chibcicylist]

Wii definitely has a week on/week off pattern, but it's sales are also getting progressively lower each succeeding pair of weeks.

It's useless to predict using that because anecdotal evidence shows that Nintendo is selling the Wii as fas as they can ship them. The progressive fall each week could just be a sign that Nintendo is trying to divert allocated units to other territories because Japan has been getting the comparatively bigger share in the last few months.

 

[Link]

maybe Nintendo is hoarding consoles

For what?

 

[santouras]

For what?

people are still living in a dreamworld where nintendo is trying to be unsuccessful, even if that means shooting themselves in the foot by not selling all the stock they have.

Never fails, every week people say "Why aren't they making enough?" "Why are they hoarding stock?"

hilarious

 

[Masklinn]

I'm just wondering, at what point will every single Japanese citizen own a DS??!?! They've got to stop selling sometime :lol

There are 130 million japaneses or so.

So they still have 115 million DS to sell

 

[ziran]

Even though PS3 has seen an increase, I can find very little positive in this weeks sales for the platform. SW in general isn't selling on the back of the increased hw sales, which is bad. In fact, according to the extra numbers we've had:
MC Feb 19-25
MC Feb 26-Mar 4
VF5 sold 4.8k last week, whereas this week it decreased to 3.7k, and there has been no increase in appearance of sw in the Top 50. As many have already pointed out, this is an isolated incident of a single game causing a spike in hw sales, which is the GC all over again.

It's certainly not over for PS3 in Japan just yet, but this week's chart doesn't show optimism for the platform imo.

PSP obviously needs more sw like MHP, which has sold incredibly well.

Edit - Wii and DS look to be supply dependent, which is something Nintendo is addressing as we speak, so hopefully the situation will be remedied soon. Great to see DS sw selling so well.

 

[ImprezaRS]

Looks like japan will be nintendo country for the foreseeable future. do you guys think it might be possible that each console maker might have a kind regional three-way tie by the end of the year as far as total sales go? . Its hard to say whats going to happen in the PAL territorys with all the conflicting info from some people claiming ps3's are breaking pre-order records and others saying that they are not doing so hot.

console sales wise, could it be like this at the end of the year?

Japan = nintendo (prolly by a hefty margin)
US= Xbox360 ?(could the wii really catch up by the end of the year? or sony?)
PAL = PS3 ? (the great unknown but traditionaly sony country)


I think the one major advantage nintendo has going forward is that it is not showing any major weakness in any of the three markets. Sony seems to be week in japan (and not so great in the US either) and microsoft is shows no signs of life in japan at all. I think nintendo can be seen as sort of the tri-athelelte of the group (they may not win all the races but could still come out on top at the end of the day)

 

[ImprezaRS]

my first post on GAF btw.

 

[AniHawk]

Do you guys think it might be possible that each console maker might have a kind regional three way tie by the end of the year as far as total sales go? . its hard to say whats going to happen in the PAL territorys with all the conflinting info from some people claiming ps3's are breaking pre-order records and others saying that they are not doing so hot.

total console sales wise, could it be like this at the end of the year?

Japan = nintendo (prolly by a hefty margin)
US= Xbox360 ?(could the wii really catch up by the end of the year? or sony?)
PAL = PS3 ? (the great unknown but traditionaly sony country)


I think the one major advantage nintendo has going forward is that it is not showing any major weakness in any of the three markets. Sony seems to be week in japan (and not so great in the US either) and microsoft shows no signs of life in japan at all. I think nintendo can be seen as sort of the tri-athelelte of the group (they may not win all the races but could still come out on top at the end of the day)

I think at the end of the year, excluding any implosions from Nintendo:

JP = Nintendo
US = Microsoft (Nintendo tying or being a very close second)
EU = Nintendo

EU is a real wildcard, but apparently the Wii is very popular there and so is the DS. However there hasn't been a really hot seller since launch, so who knows what'll happen there. If stuff like Wii Music and Wii Fitness/Health come out by the end of the year, sales will spike.

I think in the US, Wii sales will continue to be strong, but MS just really has it in the bag this year. I can see a price drop and Halo 3 moving a LOT of units. GTA IV will probably sell better on the 360 too. Nintendo's got some good games coming out, and the Wii is still VERY popular (IT'S MARCH AND THE CALLS STILL HAVEN'T STOPPED), but between the two, I see MS on top by the end of the year by a good margin (say at least 2m).

 

[Pureauthor]

my first post on GAF btw.

You mean your first TWO posts.

Anyway, Japan's more or less a lock - EU and America are still more or less wildcards, NA less so.

 

[pswii60]

I think at the end of the year, excluding any implosions from Nintendo:

JP = Nintendo
US = Microsoft (Nintendo tying or being a very close second)
EU = Nintendo

EU is a real wildcard, but apparently the Wii is very popular there and so is the DS. However there hasn't been a really hot seller since launch, so who knows what'll happen there. If stuff like Wii Music and Wii Fitness/Health come out by the end of the year, sales will spike.

I think in the US, Wii sales will continue to be strong, but MS just really has it in the bag this year. I can see a price drop and Halo 3 moving a LOT of units. GTA IV will probably sell better on the 360 too. Nintendo's got some good games coming out, and the Wii is still VERY popular (IT'S MARCH AND THE CALLS STILL HAVEN'T STOPPED), but between the two, I see MS on top by the end of the year by a good margin (say at least 2m).

I think MS can do better in Europe if they would just focus more heavily on expanding their userbase.

While I think 360 will win in the UK, I think Wii will win in the rest of Europe. This is because the rest of Europe lap up Singstar, Buzz, EyeToy etc in a MAJOR way. While these are Sony properties, the Wii is aiming at this exact market at a sweet spot price. Microsoft offer NOTHING like this on their platform at the moment, and unless that changes by this xmas, they'll never be able to do it.

But I know Peter Moore said recently that they did have plans for changing this by the holiday, and with the inevitable pricedrop, things could be looking very different as early as Fall. So, I think the point I making is, predictions are extremely difficult to make at this stage in the game, unless you know all of what the big three really have planned behing the scenes - which nobody does.

 

[AniHawk]

I think MS can do better in Europe if they would just focus more heavily on expanding their userbase.

While I think 360 will win in the UK, I think Wii will win in the rest of Europe. This is because the rest of Europe lap up Singstar, Buzz, EyeToy etc in a MAJOR way. While these are Sony properties, the Wii is aiming at this exact market at a sweet spot price. Microsoft offer NOTHING like this on their platform at the moment, and unless that changes by this xmas, they'll never be able to do it.

But I know Peter Moore said recently that they did have plans for changing this by the holiday, and with the inevitable pricedrop, things could be looking very different as early as Fall. So, I think the point I making is, predictions are extremely difficult to make at this stage in the game, unless you know all of what the big three really have planned behing the scenes - which nobody does.

Well I do, but I choose not to tell anyone.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Japan = Nintendo
US - Nintendo
NA - Nintendo

I don't see where this "split" theory is coming from, considering the trends. The PS3 is tracking WAY behind, and the Wii is quickly catching up to the 360's install base. If things keep up they way they have been then the only wild card I see will be for second place.

 

[chibcicylist]

But I know Peter Moore said recently that they did have plans for changing this by the holiday, and with the inevitable pricedrop, things could be looking very different as early as Fall. So, I think the point I making is, predictions are extremely difficult to make at this stage in the game, unless you know all of what the big three really have planned behing the scenes - which nobody does.

Too little too late for that, me thinks. It's two year in for the 360's lifetime by 07 Holidays and I think many already associate it as a "serious"/shooter console. They'll be in a better position next-gen though.

 

[Thraktor]

So Wii Sports suddenly improved its attach rate(by 10% no less)? The MC numbers this week seems a bit screwy. First the Gundam discrepancy and then the Wii Sports attach ratio.

Not really, Wii Sports' attach rate has been hovering around 66% since the start of the year, but dipped a bit from that over the past few weeks. This week it's back on form with 68%. It's worth noting that copies of the game bought this week aren't necessarily all going to be played on consoles that are bought this week, which explains why there's a tendency towards a slightly increased attach rate for the game on weeks with lower hardware sales (such as this one).

 

[AniHawk]

Japan = Nintendo
US - Nintendo
NA - Nintendo

I don't see where this "split" theory is coming from, considering the trends. The PS3 is tracking WAY behind, and the Wii is quickly catching up to the 360's install base. If things keep up they way they have been then the only wild card I see will be for second place.

The question is LTD at the end of 2007. Even if the Wii was to outsell the 360 at the rate it did during January (and assuming constant sales for 12 months), the Wii's LTD would still be behind by at least 1m.

 

[Fischbrot]

Wii sold out in Japan ?

 

[ImprezaRS]

I wonder how the news about PS3 Home is faring in japan with the public/press. Are japanese gamers in general the type who would be excited by this kind of service? it doesent seem like a system selller but i would be interested to see what people are saying in japan.

 

[nli10]

Its hard to say whats going to happen in the PAL territorys with all the conflicting info from some people claiming ps3's are breaking pre-order records and others saying that they are not doing so hot.

Both are true - Sonys initial 1st day allocations were snapped up in record time. Since then they've announced far larger shipments and it kinda turned out that all the people who wanted them have already preordered. I know that most High Street retailers already have warehouses full of thousands of PS3 so the launch period will be HUGE, but once the hardcore and the rich have their new toys I can't see sales being more than the JP style spikes for games until the Xmas period.

Wii preorders are outnumbering PS3 preorders by 2:1 at the moment in reports from UK retail also - which kind of speaks volumes as to how even Nintendo underestimated their need for hardware in the early pre-decent-games period.

 

[chibcicylist]

I wonder how the news about PS3 Home is faring in japan with the public/press. Are japanese gamers in general the type who would be excited by this kind of service? it doesent seem like a system selller but i would be interested to see what people are saying in japan.

If you're talking about Home, the thing seems to be specifically aimed at the NA audience. The general Japanese public seems to like stylized, not overly realistic stuff, especially with avatars used to represent themselves.

 

[ImprezaRS]

Both are true - Sonys initial 1st day allocations were snapped up in record time. Since then they've announced far larger shipments and it kinda turned out that all the people who wanted them have already preordered. I know that most High Street retailers already have warehouses full of thousands of PS3 so the launch period will be HUGE, but once the hardcore and the rich have their new toys I can't see sales being more than the JP style spikes for games until the Xmas period.

Wii preorders are outnumbering PS3 preorders by 2:1 at the moment in reports from UK retail also - which kind of speaks volumes as to how even Nintendo underestimated their need for hardware in the early pre-decent-games period.

ahh I see!

thank you for the clarification

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Both are true - Sonys initial 1st day allocations were snapped up in record time. Since then they've announced far larger shipments and it kinda turned out that all the people who wanted them have already preordered. I know that most High Street retailers already have warehouses full of thousands of PS3 so the launch period will be HUGE, but once the hardcore and the rich have their new toys I can't see sales being more than the JP style spikes for games until the Xmas period.

Wii preorders are outnumbering PS3 preorders by 2:1 at the moment in reports from UK retail also - which kind of speaks volumes as to how even Nintendo underestimated their need for hardware in the early pre-decent-games period.

One thing I think people are neglecting is the blackout from importing PS3's into Europe. I think we're going to see another Ebay like scandal here, though not as large as the fiasco's in Japan/NA.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

The question is LTD at the end of 2007. Even if the Wii was to outsell the 360 at the rate it did during January (and assuming constant sales for 12 months), the Wii's LTD would still be behind by at least 1m.

Us, yeah, but worldwide?

 

[chibcicylist]

Wii preorders are outnumbering PS3 preorders by 2:1 at the moment in reports from UK retail also - which kind of speaks volumes as to how even Nintendo underestimated their need for hardware in the early pre-decent-games period.

I would really appreciate a source for this. I'm curious.

The question is LTD at the end of 2007. Even if the Wii was to outsell the 360 at the rate it did during January (and assuming constant sales for 12 months), the Wii's LTD would still be behind by at least 1m.

360 sales rate could also potentially slow down as the competition matures and those that that are largely shooter fans might already have the console before Halo 3 is released.

 

[AniHawk]

Us, yeah, but worldwide?

The question was which region would have more by the end of 2007. Of course, if you have 2/3 to one manufacturer, chances are, it's not going to take "second place."

 

[deathkiller]

So if I say that the Wii is not sold out in Spain (now) and you can find it in stores without problem, that changes anything?

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

The question was which region would have more by the end of 2007. Of course, if you have 2/3 to one manufacturer, chances are, it's not going to take "second place."

Pretty much.

I missed the "end of the year" phrasing. My apologies.

My biggest wonder is how the big 3 will address the holiday season in NA. (especially considering Sony's barely got anything to combat Halo 3/Galaxy)

 

[AniHawk]

So if I say that the Wii is not sold out in Spain (now) and you can find it in stores without problem, that changes anything?

You might start getting hate mail, but other than that, no.

 

[vanguardian1]

So if I say that the Wii is not sold out in Spain (now) and you can find it in stores without problem, that changes anything?

Contact England and let them know, an article earlier this week says they're still trying to fill preorders from 3 months ago.

 

[Graphics Horse]

The question is LTD at the end of 2007. Even if the Wii was to outsell the 360 at the rate it did during January (and assuming constant sales for 12 months), the Wii's LTD would still be behind by at least 1m.

If Nintendo and Microsoft hit their targets at the end of June, Nintendo will have sold around 9 million Wiis (if they're still selling), and Microsoft will have shipped 12 million 360s, whatever that means. Japanese sales for the 6 months after June could be enough to make up that 3 million gap on their own.

Edit: Oh, you were just talking about US sales?

 

[Vagabundo]

In my view Nintendo are working this year fairly well, considering their historic financially conservative history.

I think Nintendo did not start investing in new production until late 2006, when it was clear that the Wii would take off.

They should have the new capacity ready at the end of the next quarter if not sooner (Reggie interview).

I'd say somewhere close to 2 million Wii's a month. Once the market has plenty of Wiis (Q3/4) they will start releasing the big hitters, one a month (first smash, metroid then galaxy) saving the last for the Chrimbo period, when they will make a killing (selling 3 million Wii's and bundles of software).

3rd parties should do really well (Q3/4) with Wii software with at least one big old skool game selling a million units.

Nintendo will own Japan and that will be clear by the last half of this year.

(New Job, analyst )

 

[AniHawk]

If Nintendo and Microsoft hit their targets at the end of June, Nintendo will have sold around 9 million Wiis (if they're still selling), and Microsoft will have shipped 12 million 360s, whatever that means. Japanese sales for the 6 months after June could be enough to make up that 3 million gap on their own.

NA =/= Worldwide

 

[Graphics Horse]

NA =/= Worldwide

Yeah I'd just realised, I should have read further back. Now that I've made sense of what you were talking about, I agree.

 

[Loonz]

So if I say that the Wii is not sold out in Spain (now) and you can find it in stores without problem, that changes anything?

That's true, i've seen many of them in Carrefour or MediaMarkt, something rare only 2 weeks ago. But I think it only means that, at last, we have a decent supply of Wii consoles here. Anyway, I'm not sure how many time this situation of "we have plenty of Wiis" is going to last... .

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Hardware, ummm, not bad week for Sony, I mean, they are not leaders anymore so at least I'm not expecting them on top so coming close the new leader is not that bad. Its like lowered expectations on sales threads :lol


First day numbers from sinobi...if I translate it right that is...

Yoshi Story DS 100k first day, high % sold through for a Nintendo title. It surpasses Kirby first day it seems.

Nipponichi's new adventure title (PS2) sells more than half the first shipment in its first day. But I don't see where is the shipment number...

Another DC game, 2000 units it seems.

Very bad for Power Smash 3 (PS3), but I don't understand what it says...

Heroes of Mana does 100k (I think) but then sinobi mentions Tales of the Tempest so I don't know if there is such a bad word of mouth here too...

Some more DS games this week doing good but no numbers and I don't know the titles so...:lol

Capcom will price drop Monster Hunter Portable to 1980Y on April 26th it seems. 1m shipment already or by then too.

 

[jj984jj]

Apparently the AI in HoM sucks... and I was looking forward to it so much. It's GFAQs impressions... but still.

 

[Kafel]

I've read the long discussion about "the game that will sell PS3s".

And I think that many of us are mistaken at predicting such sales with high-quality products that we (mainly) like.

If a game can sell PS3s this year in Japan, it's no other than Winning Eleven. This game is particularly aimed at an older target ( who have the possibility to buy a PS3 ) but its public is massive and for whom it's a no-brainer to buy the new opus in the series.

If this game is good ( unlike the quick version done for the X360 last year ), it will certainly help A LOT the PS3.

 

[RaijinFY]

Apparently the AI in HoM sucks... and I was looking forward to it so much. It's GFAQs impressions... but still.

SE quality nowdays... but let's see what japanese GAFFers think about it.

 

[DarkMehm]

100k on the first day for Yoshi's Island 2 is not bad I think.

 

[jj984jj]

Nobody can deny that Ridge Racer and Gundam Musou were key titles to the PS3's early success, preference or no preference. However, Gundam Musou just launched so it's still not to late to see it push some more units, especially with the launch of Virtua Tennis 3 this week (even if it doesn't do too well the combination might help PS3 maintain another week of decent hardware sales). This is the last significant push the PS3 will get for a while so if this doesn't do anything we might not see another push for about a month at the very least (unless a demo actually sells some people the system).

SE quality nowdays... but let's see what japanese GAFFers think about it.

That's if JP GAFFERS buy the game... sp0rks was the only one with any interest at all IIRC.

 

[Koren]

If a game can sell PS3s this year in Japan, it's no other than Winning Eleven. This game is particularly aimed at an older target ( who have the possibility to buy a PS3 ) but its public is massive and for whom it's a no-brainer to buy the new opus in the series.

If this game is good ( unlike the quick version done for the X360 last year ), it will certainly help A LOT the PS3.

Not sure... If there's a PS2 version with similar content, I doubt they'll be a massive shift towards an expensive console for better graphics. I think a good system seller needs to be exclusive (at least don't exist on older consoles).

 

[oldie-newbie]

Expectations for 03/05-03/12
360 - 4k
Wii - 72k <--- Production capacity up this week.
PS3 - 25k <--- Up, but up from bad is still bad.

Very solid and good analysis as usual.
I think the PS3 number will be dependent mainly of the Gundam-PS3 packs still available. Especially if these packs see a decrease in the price to clear the stock...

 

[Bo130]

100k on the first day for Yoshi's Island 2 is not bad I think.

That's actually quite good. Where can I see this weeks first day sales?

 

[CorwinB]

EU is a real wildcard, but apparently the Wii is very popular there and so is the DS. However there hasn't been a really hot seller since launch, so who knows what'll happen there. If stuff like Wii Music and Wii Fitness/Health come out by the end of the year, sales will spike.

Anecdotal evidence, but I've yet to see a single Wii in a store for more than 10 minutes here in France... Nintendo seems to do frequent but small shipments to stores, and they are sold in a matter of minutes. Some stores are still busy fulfilling Dec/Jan preorders...

 

[Jonnyram]

First day numbers from sinobi...if I translate it right that is...

You didn't though... you messed it up big time.

Yoshi Story 100k
Karous DC 2000
Power Smash 3, 20% as much as VF5 did on its first day (i.e. ~10k?)
Heroes of Mana shipped 100k but sold 10k. He says it's like Tales of the Tempest because all the spare copies will be in the bargain bin soon.

Some more DS games this week doing good but no numbers and I don't know the titles so...:lol

Nope. Oishinbo and Test of Adult Power were both massive flops.

 

[Bo130]

Heroes of Mana shipped 100k but sold 10k.

Damn, that's sad

 

[Magicpaint]

Wow, HoM completely tanked.

I guess after SD4, the Japanese have just had enough with anything Mana. Doesn't bode well for the future of the series.

 

[jj984jj]

I figured HoM would flop, S-E was advertising the thing like crazy with no interest. To top it off it's an RTS.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

You didn't though... you messed it up big time.

Yoshi Story 100k
Karous DC 2000
Power Smash 3, 20% as much as VF5 did on its first day (i.e. ~10k?)
Heroes of Mana shipped 100k but sold 10k. He says it's like Tales of the Tempest because all the spare copies will be in the bargain bin soon.

Nope. Oishinbo and Test of Adult Power were both massive flops.

Messed it up big time = Getting Heroes of Mana shipment as sold? Way too harsh :lol

 

[oldie-newbie]

Thanks for Kurosaki Ichigo and Jonnyram for the translations and corrections respectively

 

[PantherLotus]

Very solid and good analysis as usual.
I think the PS3 number will be dependent mainly of the Gundam-PS3 packs still available. Especially if these packs see a decrease in the price to clear the stock...

I believe the Gundabump will be over this week, but I do think PS3 sales will gradually increase as Sony builds momentum. We need big news, and bigger than LBP, and bigger than home. We really kinda need some huge titles this holiday, or it really will be over before it started.

Sony, you have until April 08.


*And I'm pissy about HoM tanking. I'm hoping it's not an indication of its quality.