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[PantherLotus]

If you have an alternate narrative of how this generation will play out I'd like to hear it.

Let's not pretend it's over already, right? Besides, I already decided it was over in April 08.

 

[Link316]

Possibly true in N.A, but you're kidding yourself if you don't think the Wii dominating won't have an effect in Japan.

not as much as it use to especially now that more companies like Capcom & Koei are taking a more global approach with their software rather than just focusing primarily on Japan

 

[TopDreg]

An alright sales spike for the PS3, I suppose. Although, considering how Sony supposedly has 1 million+ units of the PS3 in Japan, the overall picture is still horrid for Sony. Now that the next big release for Japan will be a few months off (that game being Heavenly Sword) Sony's going to have to really hope that next week has an approximate sales spike to what was this week's, or Sony's going to have some major explaining, PR spinning, and moneyhatting to do to third-parties.

 

[chibcicylist]

not as much as it use to especially now that more companies like Capcom & Koei are taking a more global approach with their software rather than just focusing primarily on Japan

But is Square Enix?

 

[Link316]

You think third parties will stick with the PS3 if it keeps selling like this?

as long as their games sell better on the PS3 it really makes no difference if the Wii has a 1M lead or a 100M lead

 

[PS360]

If you have an alternate narrative of how this generation will play out I'd like to hear it.

With regards to Japan, probably Nintendomination in the console arena for another year and a half, handheld arena for another 8-10 months, then a surge by PS3 to give the Wii healthy competition... and a strong change of direction for PS3 in Japan by Sony in some way/s to restructure the approach (and resulting life-expectancy) if this competition never comes into fruition.

The life-cycles across the three major regions must stay congruent for Sony's sake. There is no releasing a PS4 in japan when PS3 in NA/Europe still has 2 years left. At least I would imagine that as being out of the question.

Of course, I'm no expert.

 

[Cooter]

You guys are riding the coat-tail far and high I see.

4 months + charts, now everyone here's an expert about 4 years from now.

Try studying the past 20 years of the console industry. It doesn't take a genious to predict that the PS3 is going to have a lot of trouble down the line.

 

[Pureauthor]

as long as their games sell better on the PS3 it really makes no difference if the Wii has a 1M lead or a 100M lead

Well, that's the problem, since their games... aren't selling as well as Wii games in flat rates.

And if we're going by Namco's old chestnut that 500K copies are needed to profit off a PS3 game, not one 3rd party dev has seen profit from Japanese sales of PS3 games.

 

[vanguardian1]

not as much as it use to especially now that more companies like Capcom & Koei are taking a more global approach with their software rather than just focusing primarily on Japan

True, but that doesn't change the fact that Wii is pulling ahead of PS3 in North America, while starting to catch up to the 360 at the same time, and I don't expect Febuary's Wii/PS3/360 numbers to be much different, ratio-wise, to January. I think at the current moment the best Sony can hope for in Europe is a tie with the Wii in the short term. Japan is creeping towards the PS3 being a risky business venture for anyone who wants to publish in their homeland.

 

[Jokeropia]

as long as their games sell better on the PS3 it really makes no difference if the Wii has a 1M lead or a 100M lead

The only thing worse than PS3 hardware sales right now, are PS3 software sales.

 

[chibcicylist]

With regards to Japan, probably Nintendomination in the console arena for another year and a half, handheld arena for another 8-10 months, then a surge by PS3 to give the Wii healthy competition... and a strong change of direction for PS3 in Japan by Sony in some way/s to restructure the approach (and resulting life-expectancy) if this competition never comes into fruition.

The life-cycles across the three major regions must stay congruent for Sony's sake. There is no releasing a PS4 in japan when PS3 in NA/Europe still has 2 years left. At least I would imagine that as being out of the question.

Of course, I'm no expert.

Never happened before. It could happen but very unlikely, if not improbable.

 

[TopDreg]

With regards to Japan, probably Nintendomination in the console arena for another year and a half, handheld arena for another 8-10 months, then a surge by PS3 to give the Wii healthy competition... and a strong change of direction for PS3 in Japan by Sony in some way/s to restructure the approach (and resulting life-expectancy) if this competition never comes into fruition.

The life-cycles across the three major regions must stay congruent for Sony's sake. There is no releasing a PS4 in japan when PS3 in NA/Europe still has 2 years left. At least I would imagine that as being out of the question.

Of course, I'm no expert.

Are you saying that FFXIII is going to completely turn around Sony's situation in Japan, despite how bad PS3's sales might be by that time, and how most other third parties could potentially have jumped ship (which we're already in the phase of)?

 

[Busaiku]

for a "600" system it went pretty high this week almost as much as the not even half the cost Wii

:lol

The Wii is 1/2 the cost of the Playstation 3 in JPN, maybe a bit less.
People don't seem to realize the Playstation 3 got a price drop in JPN before it was even released.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

The fallacy is thinking the Wii has a large influence on the success or failure of the PS3 when the Wii's impact on the future of the PS3 is minimal at best.

ITT: The majority of consumers are multi-console?

 

[FrankT]

PS3s future in Japan does not look bright.

Indeed, I expected for Gundam to do a bit more damage and bring up the console at least past 50k for a week. I expect it will be right back down to 20k give or take a few once again next week. And wow at the 1 million lead of the Wii over the PS3 in 14 weeks.

 

[Cooter]

With regards to Japan, probably Nintendomination in the console arena for another year and a half, handheld arena for another 8-10 months, then a surge by PS3 to give the Wii healthy competition... and a strong change of direction for PS3 in Japan by Sony in some way/s to restructure the approach (and resulting life-expectancy) if this competition never comes into fruition.

The life-cycles across the three major regions must stay congruent for Sony's sake. There is no releasing a PS4 in japan when PS3 in NA/Europe still has 2 years left. At least I would imagine that as being out of the question.

Of course, I'm no expert.

Before I address the console analysis let me say your prediction on the handheld market is flat out impossible.

Let me ask you this. How can the Wii dominate for a year and a half and the PS3 just magically start selling. Games always help but the bottom line is the price of the console. Look at the past 4 generations. Consoles didn't start really hitting the mass market until they reach $200.

 

[cvxfreak]

Link316 a few weeks ago: "Wait for Gundam Musou!"

:lol :lol :lol

 

[vanguardian1]

If I recall correctly (I'm sure my 360 prices are off though), this is how much the japanese counterparts cost in american dollars.

Wii - $220 (no Wii Sports)

360 bare - $270
360 pre - $320

PS3 20 - $420
PS3 60 - $510

 

[Evlar]

With regards to Japan, probably Nintendomination in the console arena for another year and a half, handheld arena for another 8-10 months, then a surge by PS3 to give the Wii healthy competition... and a strong change of direction for PS3 in Japan by Sony in some way/s to restructure the approach (and resulting life-expectancy) if this competition never comes into fruition.

The life-cycles across the three major regions must stay congruent for Sony's sake. There is no releasing a PS4 in japan when PS3 in NA/Europe still has 2 years left. At least I would imagine that as being out of the question.

Of course, I'm no expert.

There's always the possibility of some unforeseen event that starts selling PS3s at the current price, some GTA3 or Brain Training level event, but I don't think we should count on these things. Otherwise Sony just needs to get the price down and very fast. I don't think they can do that, honestly.

 

[PS360]

Try studying the past 20 years of the console industry. It doesn't take a genious to predict that the PS3 is going to have a lot of trouble down the line.

Be that as it may, it does perhaps take a genius to spell "genius."

Just teasing, and certainly difficulties in Japan for Sony with software (selection) and hardware (price) will likely culminate in trouble.

One thing that's clear about Japan is that attempts to inflate perceived value are relatively useless.

I mean, either the PS3 is going to start delivering consistently good games in Japan, or it isn't. My comments are based on the assumption that SoJ has the collective experience to ensure that this WILL happen. The question is will it happen soon enough.

As for studying 20 years of console history in Japan I concede: I can't match that.

Sphinx: Agreed. I sure don't think the PS3's performance in Japan has sony "counting on" anything. Nor am I. Just asserting some expectations, optimistic as they may be.

 

[Inhumanility]

Since Cheesemeister's numbers only show combined GBA:

DSL 111,814
PSP 66,156
Wii 57,972
PS3 44,000
PS2 15,364
Xbox360 3,379
GBM 805
GBASP 738
GC 303
DS 112
GBA 25

So I was right. Looks like Wii doesn't have that sort of unpredictability that DS does and inevitably, even Nintendo MUST BOW to statistics

 

[Jasoncheng]

Dengeki-Ranking
http://www.dengekionline.com/soft/ranking.html

TOP50
NDS:33
Wii:7
PS2:6
PSP:3
PS3:1

 

[Busaiku]

If I recall correctly (I'm sure my 360 prices are off though), this is how much the japanese counterparts cost in american dollars.

Wii - $220 (no Wii Sports)

360 bare - $270
360 pre - $320

PS3 20 - $420
PS3 60 - $510

Ahh, so I got the 20 GB and 60 GB confused.
Just remembered the 60 GB is open pricing.

 

[Jokeropia]

With regards to Japan, probably Nintendomination in the console arena for another year and a half, handheld arena for another 8-10 months, then a surge by PS3 to give the Wii healthy competition

After 14 weeks (17 for PS3), Wii has a 1 million unit lead. If this continues for another year and half (78 weeks), how could the PS3 ever dream of giving Wii "healthy competition"?

Also, are you seriously suggesting that PSP will turn things around in 8-10 months as well?

 

[AdmiralViscen]

not as much as it use to especially now that more companies like Capcom & Koei are taking a more global approach with their software rather than just focusing primarily on Japan

Yea, 360 ftw.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

not as much as it use to especially now that more companies like Capcom & Koei are taking a more global approach with their software rather than just focusing primarily on Japan

This gets thrown around so much. Can anyone quantify what proportion of Capcom's quarterly revenue Dead Rising and Lost Planet were?

 

[60_gig_PS3]

pretty sure that the PS3's biggest barrier is the lack and games and strength of the PS2. Not the Wii.

Just a matter of time for PS3 to take off because It's not like PS2 owners are switching to Wii.

 

[chibcicylist]

So I was right. Looks like Wii doesn't have that sort of unpredictability that DS does and inevitably, even Nintendo MUST BOW to statistics

HuH?

 

[AdmiralViscen]

pretty sure that the PS3's biggest barrier is the lack and games and strength of the PS2. Not the Wii.

Just a matter of time for PS3 to take off because It's not like PS2 owners are switching to Wii.

1. PS2 is pretty dead in Japan. Certainly not strong.
2. Yes they are.

 

[chibcicylist]

pretty sure that the PS3's biggest barrier is the lack and games and strength of the PS2. Not the Wii.

Just a matter of time for PS3 to take off because It's not like PS2 owners are switching to Wii.

Early evidence suggests that yes, yes they are.

 

[schuelma]

Christ, aren't we sure these posts aren't Nintendo guys in disguise? This is like shooting fish in a barrel :lol :lol

 

[PS360]

After 14 weeks (17 for PS3), Wii has a 1 million unit lead. If this continues for another year and half (78 weeks), how could the PS3 ever dream of giving Wii "healthy competition"?

Also, are you seriously suggesting that PSP will turn things around in 8-10 months as well?

I'm not sure what you mean by turn things around. But I expect it to put a huge dent in DS' lead in sales. Only issue is, I'm not THAT well informed about the upcoming games for both. Perhaps someone here has some insight on that.

Don't think the Wii's current week-to-week sales gap over PS3 will continue at this rate for another year and a half is what I should have added to my last post.

Admiral: After 6-some-odd years, not sure what you should be expecting out of the PS2's performance in Japan. It had a fine run.

 

[Evlar]

Well, we can say this about this year's sales so far:

1) There aren't many new PS2 owners being minted. It's consistently being outsold by the Wii now, down in the 25,000 range.
2) The existing huge PS2 userbase isn't buying many games anymore. Only 1 PS2 game in the top 50 this week.

So either they've left gaming for the time being or they're spending money on something else.

 

[schuelma]

I'm not sure what you mean by turn things around. But I expect it to put a huge dent in DS' lead in sales. Only issue is, I'm not THAT well informed about the upcoming games for both. Perhaps someone here has some insight on that.

Don't think the Wii's current week-to-week sales gap over PS3 will continue at this rate for another year and a half is what I should have added to my last post.

Admiral: After 6-some-odd years, not sure what you should be expecting out of the PS2's performance in Japan. It had a fine run.

Ever heard of a little game called DQ9? It's only the BIGGEST EFFING GAME IN JAPAN.

 

[Barf_the_Mog]

Link316 a few weeks ago: "Wait for Gundam Musou!"

:lol :lol :lol

Is that the same Link316 from GameFaqs? The one made infamous on the notoriously horrible Next-gen board?

 

[TopDreg]

Don't think the Wii's current week-to-week sales gap over PS3 will continue at this rate for another year and a half is what I should have added to my last post.

What is your reasoning behind this? The only game I can think of in Japan that could really turn heads is FFXIII, and to an extent MGS4. Even so, the Wii will have too strong a lead by then if things continue as is, what with all the third parties ditching Sony.

Also, DQ9, as was said, is going to completely rape the PSP.

 

[Jokeropia]

I'm not sure what you mean by turn things around. But I expect it to put a huge dent in DS' lead in sales.

You're either not serious or you haven't paid attention to the Japanese market for over a year. DS has been constantly selling out every shipment since Christmas 2005 (not a typo) and PSP is generally lucky if it gets more than 1/4 of DS weekly sales. I shouldn't even have to point towards upcoming games, but rest assured that DS has a huge advantage here as well. (DQIX says hi.)

Don't think the Wii's current week-to-week sales gap over PS3 will continue at this rate for another year and a half is what I should have added to my last post..

So what will be the turning point and when will it happen?

 

[Gahiggidy]

Looks like Nintendo will have shippes/sold around 2 Million (plus change?) into JPN for the end of the Quarter. That assumes that they'll get 4 Millioin into the US+Europe to make thier goal of 6M shipped. They've surely shipped 2 Million+ into North America by now, so I think Europe is getting shorted with only 1.5M by the end of March.

How many PS3s are being luanched in Europe???

 

[cvxfreak]

Is that the same Link316 from GameFaqs? The one made infamous on the notoriously horrible Next-gen board?

Yes.

 

[Joe Molotov]

I'm not sure what you mean by turn things around. But I expect it to put a huge dent in DS' lead in sales.

Wow, are you serious? The PSP has not even managed to approach the DS's sells for a SINGLE WEEK in a length of time that we can now almost begin to describe as "Years". If the PSP can't even outsell the DS one week, how is supposed to "put a huge dent in the DS's lead in sales."

 

[Branduil]

PS3 has a semi-decent week and they come out of the woodworks.

 

[Finn]

PS3 has a semi-decent week and they come out of the woodworks.

What's scary is that this is considered a decent week, when all Playstation consoles are STILL being outsold by Nintendo's brood. I shudder to think what would happen if the PS3 outsold the Wii.

Someone hold me.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I'm not sure what you mean by turn things around. But I expect it to put a huge dent in DS' lead in sales. Only issue is, I'm not THAT well informed about the upcoming games for both. Perhaps someone here has some insight on that.

Don't think the Wii's current week-to-week sales gap over PS3 will continue at this rate for another year and a half is what I should have added to my last post.

Admiral: After 6-some-odd years, not sure what you should be expecting out of the PS2's performance in Japan. It had a fine run.

Dude, you are balls-nuts if you think the PSP is going to close the gap in any meaningful way. To dent the lead, it would have to outsell the DS. Which, I'll go out on a pretty strong limb here, is never going to happen unless the DS has production issues.

BALLS-NUTS.

As for the PS3, it's still early, but I just don't see what's going to turn things around in Japan. FFXIII would, but as I've said many times, by the time it comes out every single FF fan could march out and buy a PS3 and it still wouldn't overtake the Wii if these numbers continue.

 

[PS360]

Don't think the Wii's current week-to-week sales gap over PS3 will continue at this rate for another year and a half is what I should have added to my last post.
QUOTE]

What is your reasoning behind this? The only game I can think of in Japan that could really turn heads is FFXIII, and to an extent MGS4. Even so, the Wii will have too strong a lead by then if things continue as is, what with all the third parties ditching Sony.

Also, DQ9, as was said, is going to completely rape the PSP.

With regards to 3rd parties ditching Sony...not sure how big of an issue that will be in Japan. The community of developers and consoles seems closer, more attached, less prone to exclusive support (unless, of course, the console is made by an American megagiant) The economic factor is there, but doesn't seem as prevalent as it is here.

Even with PS3 lagging, I don't see japanese developers just jumping ship. There's an opportunity between the two consoles for each to developer to produce a stylistically unique experience for each console. Clearly the audience needs to be there to motivate them. Still, I don't think japanese devs will lose sight of what they could potentially create on the PS3 and the appeal it could have to PS3 owners.

I could be wrong though.

Segata: You may be right. I wasn't actually thinking of the PSP outselling, but even selling at the same pace the relative gap will be the same.

I'm just wondering, at what point will every single Japanese citizen own a DS??!?! They've got to stop selling sometime :lol

 

[chibcicylist]

It should also be mentioned that the PSP, in plentiful supply, didnt even manage to outsell the DS during the launch of its biggest game yet(if not ever). The DS didn't even have any major releases that week.

 

[TopDreg]

With regards to 3rd parties ditching Sony...not sure how big of an issue that will be in Japan. The community of developers and consoles seems closer, more attached, less prone to exclusive support (unless, of course, the console is made by an American megagiant) The economic factor is there, but doesn't seem as prevalent as it is here.

Even with PS3 lagging, I don't see japanese developers just jumping ship. There's an opportunity between the two consoles for each to developer to produce a stylistically unique experience for each console. Clearly the audience needs to be there to motivate them. Still, I don't think japanese devs will lose sight of what they could potentially create on the PS3 and the appeal it could have to PS3 owners.

I could be wrong though.

Although, have you factored in the high development costs of the PS3?

 

[chibcicylist]

It should also be mentioned that the PSP, in plentiful supply, didnt even manage to outsell the DS during the launch of its biggest game yet(if not ever). The DS didn't even have any major releases that week.

Even with PS3 lagging, I don't see japanese developers just jumping ship.

Jesus Christ eating some good meatballs. DQIX maniacally waves 20 multicolored fluorescent 6 ft flags in front of your face. That was announced when the PS3 was shortly released, and no trendlines were even apparent at the time.

 

[Finn]

It should also be mentioned that the PSP, in plentiful supply, didnt even manage to outsell the DS during the launch of its biggest game yet(if not ever). The DS didn't even have any major releases that week.

Neither did the Wii, and the PS3 didn't outsell that either. :lol

 

[cvxfreak]

What's scary is that this is considered a decent week, when all Playstation consoles are STILL being outsold by Nintendo's brood. I shudder to think what would happen if the PS3 outsold the Wii.

Someone hold me.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=32582

That should be an adequate little preview if it happens around MinGol's release, or FFXIII or MGS4 or whatever.

 

[Oblivion]

I like how the Sony fans would bitch about sales age, but once the PS3 has a slightly less horrible week, suddenly, sales are cool again.