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[Pureauthor]

And how has Japan been getting an unproportioned bigger shipment of Wiis each month?

The shipments are near-equal, and Japan has a population (and a gaming market) about half the size of the US. THAT's proportionate?

 

[Eteric Rice]

Heh, doesn't really matter if it slows a little. Might be a good thing, and persuade Nintendo to push out a new title or two.

Can anyone remind me when Pokemon D/P and SPM are coming out?

 

[Inhumanility]

Japan is a smaller market...
Almost half of the USA.

That's not an excuse at all, don't grasp for straws.

 

[Inhumanility]

The shipments are near-equal, and Japan has a population (and a gaming market) about half the size of the US. THAT's proportionate?

When the DS sells 600,000 in one week, and the Wii is catering to that same audience, it doesn't MATTER the population.

 

[Pureauthor]

That's not an excuse at all, don't grasp for straws.

When the DS sells 600,000 in one week, and the Wii is catering to that same audience, it doesn't MATTER the population.

Poor example. The DS didn't take off in America until the DSLite arrived. In other words, shipments to America would by definition be slower than shipments to Japan, since Japan was the hungrier market.

The Wii is doing well worldwide (well, I assume it's doing well in Europe, given the mass of 'soldout' reports), and thus, proportionally, America and Europe should be getting bigger shipments.

 

[Jokeropia]

That's not an excuse at all, don't grasp for straws.

That's an exceptionally dumb thing to say. How can you not understand that larger markets generally get larger allocations of any product?

DS is a special case due to the seemingly limitless demand in Japan (constantly selling out) whereas in the West it's "only" selling incredibly well. Wii however currently sells out everywhere and should thus be shipped proportionally to every market.

 

[Inhumanility]

Poor example. The DS didn't take off in America until the DSLite arrived. In other words, shipments to America would by definition be slower than shipments to Japan, since Japan was the hungrier market.

The Wii is doing well worldwide (well, I assume it's doing well in Europe, given the mass of 'soldout' reports), and thus, proportionally, America and Europe should be getting bigger shipments.

Now when the Ds has shown it's a massive breakout succes in japan, while it took a slow time for it to get that same success in US and Europe. Nintendo would be more anxious to release the same type of audience-caterer in the same quick-to-adapt market (JAPAN) than they would the US. That way it would take off huge, and sell an enormous amount to get 3rd parties hopping on. Then US and Europe slowly build up as well.

It still wouldn't equal to them lessening Wii shipments by 10,000 one week, then up by 10,000 the next, then back down. It makes no sense and would frustrate consumers.

 

[Pureauthor]

Now when the Ds has shown it's a massive breakout succes in japan, while it took a slow time for it to get that same success in US and Europe. Nintendo would be more anxious to release the same type of audience-caterer in the same quick-to-adapt market (JAPAN) than they would the US. That way it would take off huge, and sell an enormous amount to get 3rd parties hopping on. Then US and Europe slowly build up as well.

It still wouldn't equal to them lessening Wii shipments by 10,000 one week, then up by 10,000 the next, then back down. It makes no sense and would frustrate consumers.

Whatever they do in Japan, they can do in America, which is the bigger market, and thus more lucrative. Don't you understand?

 

[Jokeropia]

Now when the Ds has shown it's a massive breakout succes in japan, while it took a slow time for it to get that same success in US and Europe. Nintendo would be more anxious to release the same type of audience-caterer in the same quick-to-adapt market (JAPAN) than they would the US. That way it would take off huge, and sell an enormous amount to get 3rd parties hopping on. Then US and Europe slowly build up as well.

Which could be why Japan got unproportionally larger shipments up to this point.

It still wouldn't equal to them lessening Wii shipments by 10,000 one week, then up by 10,000 the next, then back down. It makes no sense and would frustrate consumers.

This was explained earlier. Suppose Nintendo ships systems every other day. This means that one week will see four shipments while the next only three, and then back to four the week after that and so on.

 

[Inhumanility]

That's an exceptionally dumb thing to say. How can you not understand that larger markets generally get larger allocations of any product?

DS is a special case due to the seemingly limitless demand in Japan (constantly selling out) whereas in the West it's "only" selling incredibly well. Wii however currently sells out everywhere and should thus be shipped proportionally to every market.

It's time for an analogy.

Say you're selling french fries in Rhode Island and California. It sells OK in both regions but is a little worrisome at how slow it's taking for people to massively pick them up. You add a different spice to it, and it caters to a whole new audience in Rohde Island and is selling phenomenally, so much so that you can't keep up shipments.

You then ship that same new spice to California, a much bigger market, and it too, sells phenomenally (but not as much as Rhode Island despite the population difference). You have trouble shipping french fries to both places.

You then decide to release Onion rings as well to that same market the french fries catered to, and you know it's going to be big. The french fries still sell substantially better in Rhode Island than California but still a good amount in both places.

Would you ship more onion rings to Rhode Island than California, despite the unproportioned attach rate?

 

[Inhumanility]

Whatever they do in Japan, they can do in America, which is the bigger market, and thus more lucrative. Don't you understand?

- They can sell 600,000 DS's in one week, 350k Wiis in one week, and four million copies of Animal Crossing, NSMB, BA etc?
- The DS in the US can beat the GBA in the US in less than half the time? Like the DS did in Japan?
- The Wii can catch up to the GCN's userbase in half the time in the US like it did in Japan?

Which could be why Japan got unproportionally larger shipments up to this point.

This was explained earlier. Suppose Nintendo ships systems every other day. This means that one week will see four shipments while the next only three, and then back to four the week after that and so on.

I SEE what you're trying to say, but I don't believe it. We're on two different sides here, and you're not going to convince me until Nintendo releases some shipments figures.

 

[Pureauthor]

What I'm missing is where you're getting the idea that the DS or the Wii currently sells 'substantially better' in Japan than in the US.

- They can sell 600,000 DS's in one week, 350k Wiis in one week, and four million copies of Animal Crossing, NSMB, BA etc?
- The DS in the US can beat the GBA in the US in less than half the time? Like the DS did in Japan?
- The Wii can catch up to the GCN's userbase in half the time in the US like it did in Japan?

Yeah, stop living in the past.

 

[Inhumanility]

What I'm missing is where you're getting the idea that the DS or the Wii currently sells 'substantially better' in Japan than in the US.

You are kidding me right?
DS 2006 Japan Monthly Sales

Jan: 316,259 Feb: 135,105
Mar:761,417 Apr: 828,119
May: 746,971 June: 758,630
July: 750,322 Aug: 601,275
Sept: 894,304 Oct: 505,023
Nov: 769,357 Dec: 1,291,948

DS 2006 US Monthly Sales
Jan: 158,664 Feb: 151,017
Mar: 183,947 Apr: 138,427
May: 145,930 June: 593,490
July: 377,199 Aug: 278,102
And not allowed to go any further for US

Japan sold 8.4 million DSs in 06 compared to US's 5.3.
In 07, Japan is still ahead by 500k units in YTD, and it'll only increase

Yeah, stop living in the past.

I'm not living in the past, I'm telling you that they can do somethings in Japan they can't do in the US

 

[johnsmith]

It's time for an analogy.

Say you're selling french fries in Rhode Island and California. It sells OK in both regions but is a little worrisome at how slow it's taking for people to massively pick them up. You add a different spice to it, and it caters to a whole new audience in Rohde Island and is selling phenomenally, so much so that you can't keep up shipments.

You then ship that same new spice to California, a much bigger market, and it too, sells phenomenally (but not as much as Rhode Island despite the population difference). You have trouble shipping french fries to both places.

You then decide to release Onion rings as well to that same market the french fries catered to, and you know it's going to be big. The french fries still sell substantially better in Rhode Island than California but still a good amount in both places.

Would you ship more onion rings to Rhode Island than California, despite the unproportioned attach rate?

Wow. Worst analogy ever.

 

[Jokeropia]

Would you ship more onion rings to Rhode Island than California, despite the unproportioned attach rate?

French Fries = DS
Onion rings = Wii
Rhode Island = Japan
California = North America

Again, Nintendo ARE shipping unproportionally large amounts of Wiis to Japan (up to this point at least), however, now that Japan is looking more and more like a sure thing while NA and Europe still demand more Wiis it's not unreasonable to give those markets more of their due as well.

I'll put it in as simple terms as possible:

DS sells out instantly in Japan, but not quite as fast in NA and Europe. Thus, Japan gets unproportionally large shipments.

Wii sells out instantly in all markets, thus shipments should be more proportional accross the board.

I SEE what you're trying to say, but I don't believe it. We're on two different sides here, and you're not going to convince me until Nintendo releases some shipments figures.

Eh? Do you have a better explanation for why shipments vary from week to week?

 

[jesusraz]

25. NDS Mega Man Star Force Pegasus/Leo/Dragon 14641 / 404931

I know it wasn't the immediate success the GBA versions have been in the past, but over 400,000 so far can't be too bad for Capcom. Surely it bodes well for any future Megaman EXE titles on DS...?

 

[ethelred]

I'm so confused.

 

[Brak]

You're getting way side-tracked inhumanility....

You are trying to assert that Wii sales fluctuating by ~15K-20K units is somehow an indicator of demand rather than an indicator of supply.

There's no way that the demand for Wii would have 33% swings in weeks where there was no new software released. Until the Wii numbers level off, which they haven't yet, then the Wii will be regarded as being in constant sell-out.

That's all there is to it.

As far as which territory should be getting the most units - Does it really matter when the Wii is selling out in all 3 territories? It isn't equivalent to the DS because the DS took off in Japan 7-8 months sooner than the rest of the world.

 

[Terrell]

It's time for an analogy.

Say you're selling french fries in Rhode Island and California. It sells OK in both regions but is a little worrisome at how slow it's taking for people to massively pick them up. You add a different spice to it, and it caters to a whole new audience in Rohde Island and is selling phenomenally, so much so that you can't keep up shipments.

You then ship that same new spice to California, a much bigger market, and it too, sells phenomenally (but not as much as Rhode Island despite the population difference). You have trouble shipping french fries to both places.

You then decide to release Onion rings as well to that same market the french fries catered to, and you know it's going to be big. The french fries still sell substantially better in Rhode Island than California but still a good amount in both places.

Would you ship more onion rings to Rhode Island than California, despite the unproportioned attach rate?

I'd ship more to California, as it has yet to be proven how large the market for "onion rings" currently is due to supply constraint and one needs to know such a thing before permanent changes to the supply chain can be made. Doing anything else is just making assumptions without proper testing of facts.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I'm so confused.

Inhumanility predicted rain on Wednesday when everyone else predicted cloudy skies no rain. He now thinks he's Nostradamus. Some strange analogies ensued, some lack of comprehension of relatively simple numbers problems, et voila - you have the Media Create Thread Extender of the Week! Brought to you by Dodge!

 

[Finn]

I'm so confused.

As am I. I'm in the mood for onion rings now, though.

 

[Inhumanility]

I really see where you guys come from, but it's not going to click that Wii is selling out EVERY week, LOWER AND LOWER until I get some concrete evidence. I think some are just not being picked up because of the lack of software coming out. Naruto and Fire Emblem don't cater to Japanese, non-traditional gamers fyi.

The comment about you not thinking DS is selling substantially more in Japan than US, Pureauthor, I hope you can now see as well....

No input form you ethel? I'd expect you'd be the first

 

[Finn]

I really see where you guys come from, but it's not going to click that Wii is selling out EVERY week, LOWER AND LOWER until I get some concrete evidence. I think some are just not being picked up because of the lack of software coming out. Naruto and Fire Emblem don't cater to Japanese, non-traditional gamers fyi.

So every other week the Wii is selling about 10 or 15k more than the previous week, then the following week falling back down, then the next week they're rebounding. And because there are no notable software releases for these "up" weeks, that seems to suggest that the system is selling out.

I really don't see what's so hard to understand.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

I really see where you guys come from, but it's not going to click that Wii is selling out EVERY week, LOWER AND LOWER until I get some concrete evidence.

What's it gonna take, all the J-Gaffers going out to every store getting you photos?

 

[Jokeropia]

I really see where you guys come from, but it's not going to click that Wii is selling out EVERY week, LOWER AND LOWER until I get some concrete evidence

But if they're not selling out, how do you explain the bumps every other week regardless of software releases?

 

[capslock]

It's time for an analogy.

Say you're selling french fries in Rhode Island and California. It sells OK in both regions but is a little worrisome at how slow it's taking for people to massively pick them up. You add a different spice to it, and it caters to a whole new audience in Rohde Island and is selling phenomenally, so much so that you can't keep up shipments.

You then ship that same new spice to California, a much bigger market, and it too, sells phenomenally (but not as much as Rhode Island despite the population difference). You have trouble shipping french fries to both places.

You then decide to release Onion rings as well to that same market the french fries catered to, and you know it's going to be big. The french fries still sell substantially better in Rhode Island than California but still a good amount in both places.

Would you ship more onion rings to Rhode Island than California, despite the unproportioned attach rate?

?....

But I ordered a cheeseburger.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

86395
83754
65740
78550
63618
78506
57972

Your theory does absolutely nothing to account for the up-down-up-down-up-down of the last six weeks. So how about you fill us in on what you thinking is causing that, then we'll go from there.

 

[JJConrad]

You know that analogies are intended to make things simpler to understand, not more convoluted?

You don’t have anyway of knowing if you predicted lower demand or lower supply. All you did was identify a trend, you have no way of knowing what is causing that trend. Seeing how new-game releases, seasonal patterns, trends of the rest of the market and other things that alter and/or illustrate demand have had zero impact on how the Wii has been selling week-to-week … I’d say that a lack of demand is last conclusion people should be jumping to.

There are many reasons why Nintendo would want to start redirecting more units to the west:
-Stronger competition … Including the launch of the PS3 in Europe.
-Higher demand. Thge Wii is selling out everywhere. The western regions are larger regions than Japan.
-It is harder to supply the west. Their size and distance makes smaller shipments less productive and more expensive.
- When production increases next month, Japan will see those effects immediately… it’ll take two weeks and longer for that higher volume to reach the west.
-The Wii is sold at a higher price in the US and Europe than it is in Japan.

 

[KINGMOKU]

Someone has to give pureauthor his due in this thread(I pretty sure it was him)

He KNEW that SOMEONE would pick up the "insane argument" torch left behind by Lance/Tabris, and low and behold, we have a winner.


Props Pureauthor, PROPS.

Best prediction I have EVER seen in a sales thread.

 

[miguel_c_hammer]

I know it wasn't the immediate success the GBA versions have been in the past, but over 400,000 so far can't be too bad for Capcom. Surely it bodes well for any future Megaman EXE titles on DS...?

Don't be silly. You honestly think Capcom won't develop a sequel to a game that will probably reach 500k lifetime? Hell, MMZX was supposedly a disappointment, yet the sequel is hot on its heels. Now probably isn't the time for Capcom to give up on the DS.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

ugh

wow

 

[cvxfreak]

If the EXE pattern is repeated the game will only get more popular once the sequels come out. So Starforce 2 > Starforce 1, perhaps. Or it could do even worse, but I think the franchise is pretty stable for Capcom.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

The way Capcom's sequels go, it would be more costly to not do a sequel than to do one. They've got a whole ton of assets they'll reuse for Starforce 2. So I don't think there's any worry there.

 

[Saint Gregory]

You know that analogies are intended to make things simpler to understand, not more convoluted?

You don’t have anyway of knowing if you predicted lower demand or lower supply. All you did was identify a trend, you have no way of knowing what is causing that trend. Seeing how new-game releases, seasonal patterns, trends of the rest of the market and other things that alter and/or illustrate demand have had zero impact on how the Wii has been selling week-to-week … I’d say that a lack of demand is last conclusion people should be jumping to.

There are many reasons why Nintendo would want to start redirecting more units to the west:
-Stronger competition … Including the launch of the PS3 in Europe.
-Higher demand. Thge Wii is selling out everywhere. The western regions are larger regions than Japan.
-It is harder to supply the west. Their size and distance makes smaller shipments less productive and more expensive.
- When production increases next month, Japan will see those effects immediately… it’ll take two weeks and longer for that higher volume to reach the west.
-The Wii is sold at a higher price in the US and Europe than it is in Japan.

Reading this lead me to believe that you were on the right track until I realized that you were arguing for more western shipments. Everyone seems to forget that Japan is Nintendo's home market. If they have a limited amount of systems, why would they pick up the extra expense of shipping those systems to western markets when they're all going to sell out anyway? If it weren't for the fact that they don't want to completely starve the west of Wiis, we wouldn't be seeing any at all since it seems they could sell a lot more than they are in Japan. Nevemind the fact they they make an extra $20 by selling Wii Sports in Japan as opposed to giving it away in the west.

 

[Datschge]

SOMEONE would pick up the "insane argument" torch left behind by Lance/Tabris

And from the look of his posting history so far it seems to be his main reason to register here...

 

[Galactic Fork]

It's time for an analogy.

Say you're selling french fries in Rhode Island and California. It sells OK in both regions but is a little worrisome at how slow it's taking for people to massively pick them up. You add a different spice to it, and it caters to a whole new audience in Rohde Island and is selling phenomenally, so much so that you can't keep up shipments.

You then ship that same new spice to California, a much bigger market, and it too, sells phenomenally (but not as much as Rhode Island despite the population difference). You have trouble shipping french fries to both places.

You then decide to release Onion rings as well to that same market the french fries catered to, and you know it's going to be big. The french fries still sell substantially better in Rhode Island than California but still a good amount in both places.

Would you ship more onion rings to Rhode Island than California, despite the unproportioned attach rate?

The problem with your analogy is this:

A: The Onion rings were umm released in both markets at nearly the same time. Both sold out and continued to sell out for months. (I'm not including your other obligations to Michigan and a few other assorted states).

B: That being the case, after a few months of shipping nearly equally to both, you might start directing more towards the larger market because 1) It's a bigger market, and 2) Your greasy food company is based in Rhode Island, so your shipments get replinished faster, even with the smaller numbers.

 

[marvelharvey]

And from the look of his posting history so far it seems to be his main reason to register here...

I think he only posts in MC threads, so I'm sure you're correct.

 

[A Link to the Past]

Pokemon didn't die in the 90s like everyone suggested it would? Sweet.

And on a sidenote, cannot wait for those two friggin games. Between Super Paper Mario and Pokemon in April, my wallet is going to be hurting.

I'm talking about it not having the legs other Pokémon games had, based on low charting for the two versions, but don't realize that combined, it's consistently a top tier.

 

[Eteric Rice]

I asked this once, but I think it got lost in the epic battle between everyone and Inhumane.

When is Super Paper Mario and the two Pokemon games coming out?

 

[Finn]

I asked this once, but I think it got lost in the epic battle between everyone and Inhumane.

When is Super Paper Mario and the two Pokemon games coming out?

SPM is April 19th, if I'm not mistaken. Not sure about Pokemon, though.

 

[cvxfreak]

I asked this once, but I think it got lost in the epic battle between everyone and Inhumane.

When is Super Paper Mario and the two Pokemon games coming out?

April 9, April 22

No wonder Nintendo's increasing production that month.

 

[Wiitard]

This thread is fun to watch and everything, but just imagine how much more fun it would be with better AI.

 

[Joe Molotov]

Would you ship more onion rings to Rhode Island than California, despite the unproportioned attach rate?

This is either the greatest or the worst Media Create thead ever.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

This thread is fun to watch and everything, but just imagine how much more fun it would be with better AI.

:lol :lol

 

[Eteric Rice]

This thread is fun to watch and everything, but just imagine how much more fun it would be with better AI.

Gaf 3.0 in 4D?

 

[ethelred]

No input form you ethel? I'd expect you'd be the first

Honestly, it's just not as fun to talk about sales now that Sony's kicking Nintendo's ass again.

 

[Wiitard]

Gaf 3.0 in 4D?

Just the basics - use the factual environment to their advantage, don't jump into the line of direct attack...

 

[vanguardian1]

Honestly, it's just not as fun to talk about sales now that Sony's kicking Nintendo's ass again.

Huh? Where? When? Inquiring minds want to know! :lol

 

[Monk]

You are kidding me right?
DS 2006 Japan Monthly Sales

Jan: 316,259 Feb: 135,105
Mar:761,417 Apr: 828,119
May: 746,971 June: 758,630
July: 750,322 Aug: 601,275
Sept: 894,304 Oct: 505,023
Nov: 769,357 Dec: 1,291,948

DS 2006 US Monthly Sales
Jan: 158,664 Feb: 151,017
Mar: 183,947 Apr: 138,427
May: 145,930 June: 593,490
July: 377,199 Aug: 278,102
And not allowed to go any further for US

Japan sold 8.4 million DSs in 06 compared to US's 5.3.
In 07, Japan is still ahead by 500k units in YTD, and it'll only increase




I'm not living in the past, I'm telling you that they can do somethings in Japan they can't do in the US

Maybe the DS has better games in Japan? Seriously if I was Japanese I would have atleast 3 more games on the DS than i have now. Uncharted Waters:Rota Nova, Etrian Odessy, Megaman ZX. I looked up ds sales in the US and it goes roughly 400k for September, then 360k, then 900k for december, and 1.6million for december. For those 4 months alone it was 3.26 million.

This proves how sloppy the western devs are on the DS. Still the best selling games on the DS are Japanese.(NSMB, Nintendogs, Brain Training).

 

[schuelma]

Honestly, it's just not as fun to talk about sales now that Sony's kicking Nintendo's ass again.

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol