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[DeaconKnowledge]

Low week for everything except the Sony PSP and PS3. Next week will be interesting.

 

[AshStrife]

WII - 57,972
PS3 - 44,000

Spoiler

Not really

 

[santouras]

Was this the magical week when DS finally passed GBA? Or am I a week late to that party

 

[Jokeropia]

Was this the magical week when DS finally passed GBA? Or am I a week late to that party

Last week.

 

[Jammy]

I wonder how much PS3 will drop next week and how much Wii will grow because of the new shipment cycle.

 

[Fuzzy]

Was this the magical week when DS finally passed GBA? Or am I a week late to that party

You missed the cake. It was really good cake.

 

[chibcicylist]

So Wii Sports suddenly improved its attach rate(by 10% no less)? The MC numbers this week seems a bit screwy. First the Gundam discrepancy and then the Wii Sports attach ratio.

 

[santouras]

You missed the cake. It was really good cake.

g-damnit.... were there sprinkles? and nice icing?

 

[PantherLotus]

This Week Sales:

Since 11/27/07 - 14 total weeks:
360 - Following the trend: 3-5k. Next Gen Avg = 11,148. Post Holiday Avg = 5,894.
Wii - Below expectations, but following the trend: 60k-80k. Next Gen Avg = 123,087. Post Holiday Avg = 76,030.
PS3 - Higher than expectations. Doubled the Trend: 18-23k. Next Gen Avg = 40,277. Post Holiday Avg = 24,098.

Results, Analysis, & Expectations
● The 360's sales are insignificant. They will not hit 1 million units before its successor is announced. 2k-6k per week for the foreseeable future.

● The PS3 didn't move nearly enough units for one of their biggest titles this year. A solid improvement, but it will take week after week after week of similar releases to change the already-clear trends in this market. A positive reaction from the GDC could spur more sales in the coming weeks. I will raise my week-to-week forecast up from 18-23k to 22-28k for the following 6 weeks.

● The Wii is clearly dependent upon hardware shipments. Pretty bad week, indicating a current production capacity (ignoring all other factors, ie holding units back for big releases) of 60-80k units per week. Keen eyes are noticing an every-other-week trend with the Wii, indicating even further how dependent sales are on shipments. Expect sales to remain between 60-80k until this is ironed out.

Expectations for 03/05-03/12
360 - 4k
Wii - 72k <--- Production capacity up this week.
PS3 - 25k <--- Up, but up from bad is still bad.

This Week's Market Share:

Market Share Week-to-Week

[B][U]Date____               360             Wii             PS3[/U][/B]
11/27-12/03:            25%             49%             26%
12/04-12/10:            24%             49%             27%
12/11-12/17:            21%             50%             29%
12/18-12/24:            17%             57%             26%
12/25-12/31:            16%             56%             28%
01/01-01/07:            15%             58%             27%
01/08-01/14:            14%             59%             27%
01/15-01/21:            14%             60%             26%
01/22-01/28:            13%             60%             26%
01/29-02/04:            13%             61%             26%
02/05-02/11:            13%             61%             26%
02/12-02/18:            13%             62%             26%
02/19-02/25:            12%             62%             25%
03/26-03/04:            12%             62%             26%

Significant Notes:
1. Wii has a 1 million unit lead on PS3 in exactly 14 weeks.
2. The Wii has never sold less than 57k in one week.
3. This is the first week since the launch period that the PS3 took back a percentage of market share.
4. The Wii has gained market share every week that it has been on sale but one, and has had more than 50% market share since its 3rd week on sale.
5. The PS3 just had its BEST WEEK THIS YEAR with 44k units sold.
6. The Wii just had its WORST WEEK EVER with 57k units sold.
7. This is the closest the PS3 have ever been to the Wii, week-to-week.
8. The Wii only sold 1.32x the PS3 this week, and is up 3.70x on the year.
9. The 360 just had its worst week since the new generation began, selling less than 20x what the Wii sold in one week (in its worst week ever).

PL MC POST HISTORY
Click for accountability!
01/15-01/21
01/22-01/28
01/29-02/04
02/05-02/11
02/12-02/18
02/19-02/25

 

[perfectchaos007]

Thank you Panther

 

[Tadaima]

This is your best yet :lol

Perhaps I'll join the fun when I've got an hour spare.

 

[Mar]

PS3s future in Japan does not look bright.

 

[PS360]

Meh...PS3's fine in Japan. No where near the success of PS2, clearly. But with a lifecycle as long as the PS2s it's possible that in 4 years it's over-taken the Wii.

Price is still an issue, games are still an issue. VF5 was disappointing, but Gundam's doing fine. FF series, MGS series, Gran Turismo, Resident Evil 5...there's plenty to look forward to. Just a shame the games are so far away.

We'll see. It may be Wii all the way this gen in Japan.

 

[chibcicylist]

Meh...PS3's fine in Japan. No where near the success of PS2, clearly. But with a lifecycle as long as the PS2s it's possible that in 4 years it's over-taken the Wii.

notthisshitagain.gif

 

[schuelma]

Meh...PS3's fine in Japan. No where near the success of PS2, clearly. But with a lifecycle as long as the PS2s it's possible that in 4 years it's over-taken the Wii.

Price is still an issue, games are still an issue. VF5 was disappointing, but Gundam's doing fine. FF series, MGS series, Gran Turismo, Resident Evil 5...there's plenty to look forward to. Just a shame the games are so far away.

We'll see. It may be Wii all the way this gen in Japan.

Wow...just wow

 

[TheGreatDave]

Meh...PS3's fine in Japan. No where near the success of PS2, clearly. But with a lifecycle as long as the PS2s it's possible that in 4 years it's over-taken the Wii.

It's not going to have the PS2's lifecycle if it doesn't have it's sales. Sony can say this is a 10 year system, but if it doesn't outsell the competition in the next 4 you know Sony will have a new Playstation ready just as Microsoft have an Xbox ready.

 

[legend166]

Meh...PS3's fine in Japan. No where near the success of PS2, clearly. But with a lifecycle as long as the PS2s it's possible that in 4 years it's over-taken the Wii.

Price is still an issue, games are still an issue. VF5 was disappointing, but Gundam's doing fine. FF series, MGS series, Gran Turismo, Resident Evil 5...there's plenty to look forward to. Just a shame the games are so far away.

We'll see. It may be Wii all the way this gen in Japan.

I lol'd.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

Meh...PS3's fine in Japan. No where near the success of PS2, clearly. But with a lifecycle as long as the PS2s it's possible that in 4 years it's over-taken the Wii.

Price is still an issue, games are still an issue. VF5 was disappointing, but Gundam's doing fine. FF series, MGS series, Gran Turismo, Resident Evil 5...there's plenty to look forward to. Just a shame the games are so far away.

We'll see. It may be Wii all the way this gen in Japan.

...wow.

 

[PantherLotus]

Bah. Someone always comes in right after I make my megapost and flies off with ridiculous assertions. I want more feedback and attention. WAAAH!

 

[Mrbob]

It's not going to have the PS2's lifecycle if it doesn't have it's sales. Sony can say this is a 10 year system, but if it doesn't outsell the competition in the next 4 you know Sony will have a new Playstation ready just as Microsoft have an Xbox ready.

Suuure.

A 600 dollar system is going to have a shorter lifecycle than a 300 dollar system.

 

[Jokeropia]

Suuure.

A 600 dollar system is going to have a shorter lifecycle than a 300 dollar system.

Selling like it does, yes.

 

[PantherLotus]

Suuure.

A 600 dollar system is going to have a shorter lifecycle than a 300 dollar system.

Ohho! You're going to tell me that it's future proof, right? And that somehow it will magically start selling when people are ready for it, right? When HD hits market penetration, right?

Price has nothing to do with lifecycle, regardless of their marketing.

 

[Taurus]

Suuure.

A 600 dollar system is going to have a shorter lifecycle than a 300 dollar system.

Can somebody remind me how price is related to expected lifespan? Any examples in the history? Like... 3DO?

 

[felipeko]

Bah. Someone always comes in right after I make my megapost and flies off with ridiculous assertions. I want more feedback and attention. WAAAH!

We pretty much agree with your points..
So no point post just for that...

But when someone do what PS360 did, we do want say something.

 

[Evlar]

Ohho! You're going to tell me that it's future proof, right? And that somehow it will magically start selling when people are ready for it, right? When HD hits market penetration, right?

Price has nothing to do with lifecycle, regardless of their marketing.

Well, at least it should be down to a competitive price by the time Nintendo and MS put out their next consoles.

 

[PantherLotus]

Can somebody remind me how price is related to expected lifespan? Any examples in the history? Like... 3DO?

Well the typical example that one might use would be the PC lifecycle, where the more you spend typically "buys" you more time before obsolescence, but it just doesn't hold up against a non-upgradeable, static, video player.

Horrible, meaningless assertion. It's the kind of assertion that makes other, more intelligent and considered assertions (like, WAIT FOR.....!) seem positively brilliant in comparison.

 

[Cooter]

The PS3 won't be a success unless it's down to $300 by holiday 2008.

I don't see any way around it.

 

[Mrbob]

PS3 is the next 3d0. You heard it first at gaf.

 

[Pureauthor]

The PS3 won't be a success unless it's down to $300 by holiday 2008.

I don't see any way around it.

If it's not in first place by Holiday 2008, it won't be in first place by Holiday 2011, short of precise meteor strikes on the production facilities of the competition.

 

[splattergnome]

Bah. Someone always comes in right after I make my megapost and flies off with ridiculous assertions. I want more feedback and attention. WAAAH!

I appreciate your charts and analysis - its a perfect overview of a week's Media Create data and puts everything into perspective until the new data begins to trickle over on Sunday.

 

[Cooter]

If it's not in first place by Holiday 2008, it won't be in first place by Holiday 2011, short of precise meteor strikes on the production facilities of the competition.

Agreed

 

[felipeko]

The PS3 won't be a success unless it's down to $300 by holiday 2008.

I don't see any way around it.

And Wii at $150?

I'm not so sure that Sony would want a price war while ps3 is bleeding money..

 

[Taurus]

PS3 is the next 3d0. You heard it first at gaf.

Well read and understood, congrats.

But by your logic... doesn't it mean that 3DO should have had at least 6-8 year lifespan instead of 3 years? The price only should have guaranteed it, right?

 

[Link316]

If it's not in first place by Holiday 2008, it won't be in first place by Holiday 2011, short of precise meteor strikes on the production facilities of the competition.

it'll be #1 in 2011 as long as they stick with the PS3, there's no need for Sony to cut the cycle short

 

[PantherLotus]

PS3 is the next 3d0. You heard it first at gaf.

Oh bullshit. Don't pretend like you weren't the schmuck that suggested that it had a longer life-cycle simply because it cost more. If you can actually defend such ridiculosity, please do. It's gettin ****in thick around here.

 

[Mrbob]

The fallacy is thinking the Wii has a large influence on the success or failure of the PS3 when the Wii's impact on the future of the PS3 is minimal at best.

 

[schuelma]

The fallacy is thinking the Wii has a large influence on the success or failure of the PS3 when the Wii's impact on the future of the PS3 is minimal at best.

Possibly true in N.A, but you're kidding yourself if you don't think the Wii dominating won't have an effect in Japan.

 

[Evlar]

The fallacy is thinking the Wii has a large influence on the success or failure of the PS3 when the Wii's impact on the future of the PS3 is minimal at best.

That might be true.

DS is killing the PS3.

 

[Link316]

Well read and understood, congrats.

But by your logic... doesn't it mean that 3DO should have had at least 6-8 year lifespan instead of 3 years? The price only should have guaranteed it, right?

except that the 3DO didn't have 3rd party support like the PS3 does

 

[felipeko]

The fallacy is thinking the Wii has a large influence on the success or failure of the PS3 when the Wii's impact on the future of the PS3 is minimal at best.

Most of Japanese developers won't go multi.
Wiimote pretty much guarantee that most titltes will be exclusive, even EA is doing it.
They dont have unlimited resources, and they want profit, so yeah, less titles for PS3 if Wii keep at this rate.

 

[Jokeropia]

it'll be #1 in 2011 as long as they stick with the PS3, there's no need for Sony to cut the cycle short

You think third parties will stick with the PS3 if it keeps selling like this?

 

[chibcicylist]

If you're gonna argue about technological obsolescence, then recognize that it's actually better to spend less money now in anticipation of the inevitable hardware improvements down the line. In 3 years, Nintendo can probably make something way more powerful than the PS3 for the same price.

The fallacy is thinking the Wii has a large influence on the success or failure of the PS3 when the Wii's impact on the future of the PS3 is minimal at best.

It will when FFIV(FFXIII? Nah, I won't start with that one) and KH3 are announced as Wii exclusives.

it'll be #1 in 2011 as long as they stick with the PS3, there's no need for Sony to cut the cycle short

XBOX says hi from its grave!

 

[PantherLotus]

Oh you guys. Stop spinning, this is ****ing bullshit.

 

[Cooter]

it'll be #1 in 2011 as long as they stick with the PS3, there's no need for Sony to cut the cycle short

So what happens when Nintendo and Microsoft release a brand new console that is only marginally more expensive than Sony's 5 year old system? I don't think this generation will end well for Sony.

 

[PS360]

You guys are riding the coat-tail far and high I see.

4 months + charts, now everyone here's an expert about 4 years from now.

 

[Christopher]

for a "600" system it went pretty high this week almost as much as the not even half the cost Wii

:lol

 

[Pureauthor]

except that the 3DO didn't have 3rd party support like the PS3 does

Except that the most significant driving force for sales in Japan right now comes from a 1st party company, and it's not Sony.

for a "600" system it went pretty high this week almost as much as the not even half the cost Wii

For a system with no 3rd party support and was designed like a purple lunchbox, the GCn sold really well!

And why are you in a sales thread? I thought you didn't care?

 

[chibcicylist]

for a "600" system it went pretty high this week almost as much as the not even half the cost Wii

:lol

400, actually.

 

[Evlar]

You guys are riding the coat-tail far and high I see.

4 months + charts, now everyone here's an expert about 4 years from now.

If you have an alternate narrative of how this generation will play out I'd like to hear it.

 

[chibcicylist]

If you have an alternate narrative of how this generation will play out I'd like to hear it.

Wait for Minna No Golf.