Forgotten Ancient
Banned
Fuzzy said:
Me too.
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Media Create Sales: 7/23 - 7/29
- Thread starter cvxfreak
- Start date
Me too.
Fuzzy said:
Are you serious? You know as well as most everyone else that the PS3 isn't going to suddenly start selling like the PS2. If you want the PS3, I would've thought you'd have steeled yourself against being bothered too much by its sales.
Edit:
Besides, low sales usually lead to price drops, which should make you more happy for when you'd actually buy one.
Saint Gregory
Member
Fuzzy said:
How do you think those of us who already have one feel?
LanceStern said:
Lance, you think I won't admit when I'm wrong? You err in that assumption. When I am wrong, I'll gladly do so. If you really want an example, though, here's one: It's a Wonderful World. I was wrong about that.
When I first saw the weekly numbers, my initial reaction was that they weren't bad; it was a bit better than I had expected and I figured it was a pretty good result overall. But, I wagered, some other folks out there would be quick to call it a bomb. So I took it upon myself at that point to do the necessary research by digging up numbers from past game releases to validate my assumption. What I found, however, was that far from bearing out my first guess, the research did the exact opposite. The plain factual numbers showed the game dramatically underperforming compared to the best relevant historical examples I could find.
The weekly numbers could still be considered marginally okay, though, depending upon what the projected sales were (if there were only 90k copies in retail, then 77k's not shabby). That's why when Sinobi reported that the game sold only 40% of the retail order and was having its price slashed to clear out stock (a sure sign that the game is unlikely to receive a second retail order, meaning its lifetime sales are probably capped at its first order's size -- not good), I combined that with the research I had just done to conclude that my original hypothesis was wrong and the game had indeed done very, very poorly. And as Keynes famously said, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"
Well, what do you do, Lance? Stubbornly cling to the idea that your gut feelings supercede all rational evidence and historical examples? Or admit fault and bow to the weight of the facts, whether you like it or not? And bear in mind that in my case, it's most definitely a "not" -- very few people here wanted as much as I to see this game perform strongly. But it didn't, and that's the clear sign of all the available analytical measures we have. The fervent spin of a true believer doesn't cut it, and nor does the subjective Goldilockean "these sales feel just right" gradings.
Deku said:
You're partly right, Deku, in that the game was never going to lead Yoichi Wada down the road toward a Saul-like epiphany where he'd realize how terribly wrong he'd been all these years and remake the management and development structure of Square Enix in a new image embracing open-mindedness and creativity and spurning franchise excess. Nevertheless, becoming a success would clearly have been a big positive for the company -- it HAS become overly reliant on the Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest brands, and the steady decline of existing B Tier franchises (SaGa, Front Mission, Mana) and the inability to make break-out successes of new franchises is only going to entrench that reliance. Had they managed to turn Wonderful World into a new strong performing franchise it certainly would've emboldened the company to take similar risks in the future whereas a failure diminishes such odds.
SovanJedi said:
This might be (ok, I'm a junior, this WILL be) a stupid question but has Nintendo ENTIRELY stopped manufacturing the original DS design in favor of the Lite? because if they haven't then they DEFINITELY need a pricedrop on the original design, or if they did even suggest it to clear out remaining stock and go DSL all the way.
Cheesemeister
Member
Gaborn said:
Cheesemeister said:
You do the math.
Congrats to Sony, I guess - being outsold by a 2:1 ratio isn't nearly as bad as the usual 6:1 or 7:1.
Any guesses on what kind of a hardware tail Golf will bring? Prognosticators.. where do you think the PS3 will be next week?
I've seen the parallels between Golf on PS3 and Mario Sunshine on GameCube.. what kind of effect did Sunshine have on GameCube sales in its second week of availability?
Any guesses on what kind of a hardware tail Golf will bring? Prognosticators.. where do you think the PS3 will be next week?
I've seen the parallels between Golf on PS3 and Mario Sunshine on GameCube.. what kind of effect did Sunshine have on GameCube sales in its second week of availability?
miguel_c_hammer
Member
HylianTom said:
Well, if Gundabump didn't have any appreciable effect, I doubt this will.
Earthstrike
Member
I think the most interesting thing to watch will be the legs of Mari Party 8. It seems to be the kind of game Nintendo wants to get the non-gamers playing to transition into "real games".
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
Earthstrike said:
From most accounts, Mario Party 8 will do the opposite. MP8 could be bad enough to cause the great gaming crash of 2008.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
NEXT GEN WEEKLY SALES 35
Since 11/27/07:
35 Total Weeks of Next Gen sales.
29 Total Weeks of post-holiday sales.
Trends & Predictions
Trends are determined by the last 4 weeks of data. Averages are determined by total sales divided by the number of weeks posted above. Outside factors are considered (such as big releases, holidays, etc) when determining current trends and establishing predictions. Results are not an average. Previous week's success rate included for accountability.
360 - Established Trend: 2-4k. Next Gen Avg = 6,318. Post Holiday Avg = 3,869.
Wii - Establishing Trend: 76-88k. Next Gen Avg = 92,102. Post Holiday Avg = 72,711.
PS3 - Established Trend: 9-13k. Next Gen Avg = 24,608. Post Holiday Avg = 16,903.
Expectations for 07/30 - 08/05
360 - 2.9k <-- within 1k the previous week
Wii - 90k <-- within 13k the previous week
PS3 - 15k <-- Way, way off last week.
Significant Notes:
● The Wii has extended its lead to 2,205,894 over the PS3.
● 109,870 consoles sold this week. Wii had 70.24% of all console sales.
● The Wii only outsold the PS3 2.68:1 this week.
● The 5 million Wii watch party continues. If sales repeat this week's results, the Wii will hit 5 million the week of 01/06/08.
● The PS3 has now sold 1 million units, after 35 weeks on sale.
● The 75% market share watch party continues. The Wii only gained .02% this week. If sales repeat the 78k Wii/15k PS3 weekly average continuously, it would project to reach this some time in late May of 2008. After recalculating (thanks Donny/JJ), this may be an erroneous projection altogether.
Question of the Week
Do you think that Microsoft, although completely failing in Japan, is the biggest winner this generation because it 'forced' Sony to try and compete against the 360 (a product primarily designed around American tastes)? Can Nintendo take all the credit by redefining what gaming is, can MS take any credit for forcing the issue, or is this really all just on Sony?
Since 11/27/07:
35 Total Weeks of Next Gen sales.
29 Total Weeks of post-holiday sales.
Trends & Predictions
Trends are determined by the last 4 weeks of data. Averages are determined by total sales divided by the number of weeks posted above. Outside factors are considered (such as big releases, holidays, etc) when determining current trends and establishing predictions. Results are not an average. Previous week's success rate included for accountability.
360 - Established Trend: 2-4k. Next Gen Avg = 6,318. Post Holiday Avg = 3,869.
Wii - Establishing Trend: 76-88k. Next Gen Avg = 92,102. Post Holiday Avg = 72,711.
PS3 - Established Trend: 9-13k. Next Gen Avg = 24,608. Post Holiday Avg = 16,903.
Expectations for 07/30 - 08/05
360 - 2.9k <-- within 1k the previous week
Wii - 90k <-- within 13k the previous week
PS3 - 15k <-- Way, way off last week.
Significant Notes:
● The Wii has extended its lead to 2,205,894 over the PS3.
● 109,870 consoles sold this week. Wii had 70.24% of all console sales.
● The Wii only outsold the PS3 2.68:1 this week.
● The 5 million Wii watch party continues. If sales repeat this week's results, the Wii will hit 5 million the week of 01/06/08.
● The PS3 has now sold 1 million units, after 35 weeks on sale.
● The 75% market share watch party continues. The Wii only gained .02% this week. If sales repeat the 78k Wii/15k PS3 weekly average continuously, it would project to reach this some time in late May of 2008. After recalculating (thanks Donny/JJ), this may be an erroneous projection altogether.
Question of the Week
Do you think that Microsoft, although completely failing in Japan, is the biggest winner this generation because it 'forced' Sony to try and compete against the 360 (a product primarily designed around American tastes)? Can Nintendo take all the credit by redefining what gaming is, can MS take any credit for forcing the issue, or is this really all just on Sony?
Jasoncheng
Member
Cheesemeister said:
NDS - 30
Wii - 7
PS2 - 6
PSP - 3
PS3 - 2
360 - 1
NGC - 1
marvelharvey
Member
They're still making 90 units a week?Cheesemeister said:
By hand?
laserbeam said:
I have always wondered about this. People always said that PSP got lots of piracy, so the s/w didn't sell well. AFAIK, there are also a lot of piracy on DS & DSL (I have seen quite a few myself). How come DS's software does not suffer from piracy ?
Me too. I have started to waver in my determination on getting PS3. Only the fact that X360 have reliability issue (even though they have given 3 years warranty for red ring) kept me from buying 360. Oh, I forgot, the price has not reached USD 300 is also an issue (for X360).Fuzzy said:
PS3 still trails Saturn by about a hundred thousand units at this point in their respective lives. Saturn is entering a software drought and hardware slump in the next few months though that won't abate until the trifecta of Virtua Fighter 2, Virtua Cop, and Sega Rally arrive at the end of the year to push the Saturn to a short-lived lead over the PS1. So there's hope for Sony yet! :lol
Cheesemeister
Member
Jasoncheng said:
Huh, you're right. I hate off-by-one errors.
Pureauthor
Member
PantherLotus said:
This really isn't anything new. Since the console warz began, change of the guy on top of the heap have always been due to both the new champion doing things very right, and the old champion doing thigns very wrong.
And no, Microsoft didn't really force Sony into it, from how I see things. Leaving aside the Wii for a moment, a USD 300 PS3 (with hardware scaled to match the price, like reasonable companies should do) would have trounced the X360 handily - AND would have been less likely to have been delayed to the point of giving the X360 an entire year's head start.
PantherLotus said:
Credit goes to Nintendo + Sony. Nintendo for disrupting the industry, Sony for ****ing everything up completely. MS didn't really force anyone IMO, Kutaragi designed the machine following his own muse. For me the real question is, where the **** is the Japanese software for PS3? Who in their right mind could have guessed that the Golden Week release would be Madden and that their only tentpole releases in the first half of 2007 would only be able to push their hardware to 30k?
Galactic Fork
A little fluff between the ears never did any harm...
The answer is ease. It's much easier for piracy on the PSP, there are many methods that don't even require custom firmware if you don't want to go the bricking route. Plus for the most part, it's free with the PSP. Just get the PSP and you're ready. if you get the right pack you even have a gigabyte stick to hold your pirated stuff.apujanata said:
The DS requires addition things to buy. That alone is going to hurt you. I am not sure if even after you purchase the additional, you have to flash your DS. If so, that adds even more difficulty because it's much easier to do with your PSP.
GreenGlowingGoo said:
thats pretty much it. All the piracy you want for the PSP cn be done on the memory sticks. No need for Cartridges etc like the DS whch require more effort then just going to best buy and buying a memory stick.
and in a very not sur ehow to call it twist most of the piracy is to get things like NES,SNES etc emulators. so They buy a PSP to play lots of old Nintendo Games etc.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Wii comparisons: At 35 weeks, Wii is where GCN was at 128.5 weeks (February 25, 2004), where GBA was at 27.9 weeks (September 29, 2001), where DS was at 42.4 weeks (September 21, 2005), where PS2 was at 46.6 weeks (January 18, 2001), and where PSP was at 68.7 weeks (March 30, 2006).
PS3 comparisons: At 38 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 4.3 weeks (March 28, 2000), where PSP was at 14.0 weeks (March 12, 2005), where GCN was at 16.7 weeks (January 3, 2002), and where Wii was at 5.5 weeks (January 3, 2001).
DS vs PSP: Weekly ratio of 81.1 / 18.9, bringing the total ratio to 76.3 / 23.7.
PS3 vs Wii: Weekly ratio of 27.2 / 72.8, PS3's best ratio since the week after Gundabump (41.9). This brings the total ratio to 24.0 / 76.0, a slight movement in PS3's favor. If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 76.5 weeks (January 15, 2009).
PSP vs Wii: At this week's rates Wii catches up to PSP in 60.1 weeks (September 22, 2008).
PS2 vs DS: At this week's rates, PS2 and DS meet up in 14.9 weeks (November 10, 2007) at ~20.81 million apiece.
Mostly meaningless, but I notice Media Create has redone their web site. Sales data is no longer at the same URL or has the same look as it has for at least the last five years.
PS3 comparisons: At 38 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 4.3 weeks (March 28, 2000), where PSP was at 14.0 weeks (March 12, 2005), where GCN was at 16.7 weeks (January 3, 2002), and where Wii was at 5.5 weeks (January 3, 2001).
DS vs PSP: Weekly ratio of 81.1 / 18.9, bringing the total ratio to 76.3 / 23.7.
PS3 vs Wii: Weekly ratio of 27.2 / 72.8, PS3's best ratio since the week after Gundabump (41.9). This brings the total ratio to 24.0 / 76.0, a slight movement in PS3's favor. If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 76.5 weeks (January 15, 2009).
PSP vs Wii: At this week's rates Wii catches up to PSP in 60.1 weeks (September 22, 2008).
PS2 vs DS: At this week's rates, PS2 and DS meet up in 14.9 weeks (November 10, 2007) at ~20.81 million apiece.
Mostly meaningless, but I notice Media Create has redone their web site. Sales data is no longer at the same URL or has the same look as it has for at least the last five years.
Yeah, that came to mind too.Cheesemeister said:
Discrepancies are common, but I think 10K would be a new PS3 high.reilo said:
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
Gaborn said:
Nah, there was some truth to that whole teleport/time travel discussion the other day.
ComputerNerd
Banned
Forgotten Ancient said:
It's the 4th dimension. Here at last.
sleeping_dragon
Banned
Wii-za said:
considering how cheap(yes i think is really cheap in term of value for customers) the Wii is compare to the PS3 I feels very proud of a PS3 title selling over 150K.
nextgeneration
Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
This is just insane. PS3 is trailing GC by approximately 5 months!
sleeping_dragon
Banned
The Sphinx said:
that is because you only read my post but not the post that i reply to.
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
legend166 said:
I don't think there's a real way of knowing. One or the other (I think MC) uses more sources, but their methods of extrapolating may be different.
I guess yOu could take all the numbers, average them out, and apply a super-secret algorIthm to put together video game sales charts. Surely it'd be more accurate.
The Gotcha Force resurgence has me wondering what the demand for other GC games and accessories is. If Nintendo did a 10,000 copy reprint of something like Super Mario Sunshine at a budget price, or perhaps games like Chibi Robo, I don't think Nintendo would have a problem selling them all.