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[laserbeam]

The Gotcha Force resurgence has me wondering what the demand for other GC games and accessories is. If Nintendo did a 10,000 copy reprint of something like Super Mario Sunshine at a budget price, or perhaps games like Chibi Robo, I don't think Nintendo would have a problem selling them all.

Im wondering what Nintendo really does plan to do with all the old GC titles even states side. They could make a killing rereleasing alot of really good titles budget priced again getting people who may have missed titles on GC and opening the games to whole new groups of people

 

[Evlar]

The Gotcha Force resurgence has me wondering what the demand for other GC games and accessories is. If Nintendo did a 10,000 copy reprint of something like Super Mario Sunshine at a budget price, or perhaps games like Chibi Robo, I don't think Nintendo would have a problem selling them all.

That's an interesting thought... The biggest barrier would be selling yet more accessories (Cube controllers and memory cards).

 

[diddlyD]

also, if minna no golf can't even bump the ps3 to a 30k week, then i don't think ill be surprised when mgs4 and ffxiii come out and it doesn't top 40k. the ps3 is just so dead in japan it's really hard to fathom. every week the news is the same but it doesn't seem to want to sink in.

 

[apujanata]

considering how cheap(yes i think is really cheap in term of value for customers) the Wii is compare to the PS3 I feels very proud of a PS3 title selling over 150K.

What will you do IF FFXIII sold 500K first week ? Happy ? Sad ? Angry ? Estatic ? Bored ?

PS2 vs DS: At this week's rates, PS2 and DS meet up in 14.9 weeks (November 10, 2007) at ~20.81 million apiece.

The date got closer and closer every week, since PS2 weekly sales keep on dropping, while Wii sometimes increase, sometimes drop its weekly sales.

 

[Speevy]

For refernce, what's the most the DS has ever rebounded from a big release?

 

[Fuzzy]

it seems like media create numbers always just subtract from famitsu's ps3 numbers and add to famitsu's wii/ds numbers

media create are nintendo fanboys confirmed.

That's why Nintendo uses them as a source for Japanese sell-through numbers in presentations.

 

[super funk]

At 9,420,934 weeks, PS3 is where the DS was before (after?) the time-traveling robot uprising.

So thats what Chibi Robo is about!

 

[Barf_the_Mog]

Question of the Week
Do you think that Microsoft, although completely failing in Japan, is the biggest winner this generation because it 'forced' Sony to try and compete against the 360 (a product primarily designed around American tastes)? Can Nintendo take all the credit by redefining what gaming is, can MS take any credit for forcing the issue, or is this really all just on Sony?

No, Sony is following the pattern of two consecutive successful consoles and then a sharp drop to newer competitors. This is nothing new, and becoming formulaic. Sony was overconfident even with the PS2 (like Nintendo was with the SNES, and then the N64) and even more so with the PS3. They thought brand name alone would guarentee a number 1 position. It's Sony's success that forced Nintendo to react the way it did and reinvent gaming.

If anything, Microsoft followed Sony's gameplan with its PS3. The Xbox 360 is more expensive than the market allows for. MS knew from talking with 3rd party developers that Sony was planning something BIG in terms of specs for its next gen console. Microsft naturally had to follow suit when designing their own. So no, MS didn't win this generation - it was Sony's to lose on their own.

 

[apujanata]

I don't think there's a real way of knowing. One or the other (I think MC) uses more sources, but their methods of extrapolating may be different.

I guess yOu could take all the numbers, average them out, and apply a super-secret algorIthm to put together video game sales charts. Surely it'd be more accurate.

After that, you should post your charts in an .org URL, and after it got more famous, you can move them to .com URL. And if you do it in an notorious way, you will be either banned from GAF, or your website will be banned from GAF.

I am just completing Forgotten Ancient's Recipe.

For refernce, what's the most the DS has ever rebounded from a big release?

What do you mean ? Is it rebounded, or drop off ? During the supply constraint era, there is no way to know whether the drop off after big release is caused by demand decrease, or cause by supply decrease.

 

[Fuzzy]

After that, you should post your charts in an .org URL, and after it got more famous, you can move them to .com URL. And if you do it in an notorious way, you will be either banned from GAF, or your website will be banned from GAF.

I am just completing Forgotten Ancient's Recipe.

I think you guys give him too much crap. I think that site is an invaluable resource.

 

[apujanata]

I think you guys give him too much crap. I think that site is an invaluable resource.

For what ? Older data, which may or may not be accurate ? World wide figure, which may or may not be accurate ?

 

[titiklabingapat]

This question has probably been answered a million times, but in general, which is considered the more accurate tracker, Media Create or Famitsu/Enterbrain?

I've heard different things.

Like somebody said, nobody really knows since both are more or less "just" extrapolations. GAF just uses MC because they come out much earlier and for the sake of consistency.

 

[TunaLover]

That's why Nintendo uses them as a source for Japanese sell-through numbers in presentations.

it seems like media create numbers always just subtract from famitsu's ps3 numbers and add to famitsu's wii/ds numbers

media create are nintendo fanboys confirmed.

:lol

 

[AlphaSnake]

I say this every week, but I really don't get why Sony is ignoring Japan. That's what it blatantly is - ignoring.

No price cuts, no pressure on publishers, insane gaps between noteworthy games. Sony needs to have the PS3 averaging 25-35k units a week to stay competitive in Japan.

 

[KINGMOKU]

I say this every week, but I really don't get why Sony is ignoring Japan. That's what it blatantly is - ignoring.

No price cuts, no pressure on publishers, insane gaps between noteworthy games. Sony needs to have the PS3 averaging 25-35k units a week to stay competitive in Japan.

You may be confused kind sir. Now sit down, and let me tell you a story about how Japan is ignoring Sony...

Spoiler

arrogance has utterly destroyed Sony this generation. Remember all the quotes about selling the first 5million on brand name alone? They didnt have jack-shit prepared in terms of games. They did all of this to themselves

 

[PantherLotus]

I say this every week, but I really don't get why Sony is ignoring Japan. That's what it blatantly is - ignoring.

No price cuts, no pressure on publishers, insane gaps between noteworthy games. Sony needs to have the PS3 averaging 25-35k units a week to stay competitive in Japan.

Actually, I think they overestimated the PS2's staying power, underestimated the Wii, and designed a console to compete in the US, not Japan.

 

[Evlar]

The only way to judge the reliability of any market research like this is to study their methodologies. The methods used by MC and Famitsu are similar and appear to be applied professionally by both services so in my view they are equally valid.

As to which is more correct... Who knows? There's no way of telling without having complete and accurate knowledge of each sale in Japan, and no one has that. It's probable that the answer changes week to week for each piece of merchandise.

 

[castle007]

1. NDS - 150,584
2. WII - 77,169
3. PSP - 35,068
4. PS3 - 28,829
5. PS2 - 11,757
6. 360 - 3,872
7. GBA - 532
8. NGC - 102

PS3 bump!!

DS and Wii continue to dominate

 

[rakka]

Actually, I think they overestimated the PS2's staying power, underestimated the Wii, and designed a console to compete in the US, not Japan.

Why would they do that?

 

[Father_Brain]

Spoiler

arrogance has utterly destroyed Sony this generation. Remember all the quotes about selling the first 5million on brand name alone? They didnt have jack-shit prepared in terms of games. They did all of this to themselves

What's even more pathetic is that Sony should have learned its lesson with PSP: a system isn't going to crush the competition just because of the PlayStation brand name, especially if the goals of its designers are out of touch with what consumers want.

 

[laserbeam]

The only way to judge the reliability of any market research like this is to study their methodologies. The methods used by MC and Famitsu are similar and appear to be applied professionally by both services so in my view they are equally valid.

As to which is more correct... Who knows? There's no way of telling without having complete and accurate knowledge of each sale in Japan, and no one has that. It's probable that the answer changes week to week for each piece of merchandise.

only thing we really know is Media Create has access to about 60% of the markets sales data and estimates the other 40%. Famitsu is said to have 35-40% market access so has to estimate 60-65%.

Media Create would in that case have the best chance of being the most accurate but both still estimate quite a bit

 

[KINGMOKU]

Actually, I think they overestimated the PS2's staying power, underestimated the Wii, and designed a console to compete in the US, not Japan.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Question of the Week
Do you think that Microsoft, although completely failing in Japan, is the biggest winner this generation because it 'forced' Sony to try and compete against the 360 (a product primarily designed around American tastes)? Can Nintendo take all the credit by redefining what gaming is, can MS take any credit for forcing the issue, or is this really all just on Sony?

I can see how the appearance is there of MS playing a part, but I don't think it goes deeper. Yes, they produced a powerful expensive machine, and Sony followed with a more powerful, more expensive machine... but in Cell and Blu-ray Sony was already headed that direction for years. X360's hardware isn't something so radical that Sony should've felt a pressure to overreact to a player with a much smaller market share, either, so even if they did feel forced to compete with X360 it's more of a Sony failing than a Microsoft triumph.

I have always wondered about this. People always said that PSP got lots of piracy, so the s/w didn't sell well. AFAIK, there are also a lot of piracy on DS & DSL (I have seen quite a few myself). How come DS's software does not suffer from piracy ?

It's not at all on the same level of ease. There are tricks to run pirate copies or homebrew on most systems if you're motivated to get special hardware to do so, but it's much simpler on PSP. I bought a 1.5 unit a couple years back, and getting homebrew going was as simple as copying files to the Memory Stick and running them.

Ummm... something doesn't seem quite right with the date I bolded. You might be off a few years....

:lol One of these weeks, I'll make it through an entire set of those without making some typo. At least I haven't mistakenly called the PS3 "PS2" or "PSP" in a few weeks. I'm sure the thing that screwed me up this week is I was thinking how the PS3 comparison to GCN and Wii has for so long given a similar calendar date in a different year, holiday of 2001 versus holiday of 2006... though properly by this time it's early 2002 and early 2007.

This is just insane. PS3 is trailing GC by approximately 5 months!

It's basically that since PS3 left the holiday season somewhat behind GCN, all of PS3's small weeks thus far this year have basically amounted to it wading through GCN's first holiday bump.

it seems like media create numbers always just subtract from famitsu's ps3 numbers and add to famitsu's wii/ds numbers

media create are nintendo fanboys confirmed.

PS3 is pretty consistently lower by Media Create, though there are exceptions. Wii is much more mixed, though. Looking at LTD, Famitsu had a slightly higher Wii total in the early months, though now MC's is higher.

 

[norinrad21]

My heart swells with pride, oh Nintendo and how i love thee

 

[TunaLover]

The only way I see PS3 getting more support from 3rd parties is Sony funding projects, Cellius was the first of step on that direction, since Namco-Bandai were very upset about sales on the system. The infamous Gamecube syndrome.

 

[titiklabingapat]

What's even more pathetic is that Sony should have learned its lesson with PSP: a system isn't going to crush the competition just because of the PlayStation brand name, especially if the goals of its designers are out of touch with what consumers want.

That's where Nintendo comes in. They obviously learned a lot from the DS/PSP fight. So the obvious answer to Panther's question is both Sony's overconfidence and Nintendo's brilliance.

 

[cartman414]

The only way I see PS3 getting more support from 3rd parties is Sony funding projects, Cellius was the first of step on that direction, since Namco-Bandai were very upset about sales on the system. The infamous post-N64 syndrome.

Fixed.

 

[gimz]

i know its hard, but do anyone have the photo that taken few years ago at E3 Sony's Press Conference saying "The War Is Already Over" slide show about PS2 vs XBOX vs GC?

 

[Fafalada]

There are tricks to run pirate copies or homebrew on most systems if you're motivated to get special hardware to do so

None of the handhelds require a hardware mod to do it though (and didn't in the past either, which is a big difference from "big" consoles). One could always argue that "traditionally low handheld attach rates" which continue to be much lower then consoles even on DS, might have something to do with that fact.

But PSP homebrew gets magazine articles and interviews with hackers that drive it, remind me of last (any)console that had that kind of exposure for the "scene"?

 

[ethelred]

None of the handhelds require a hardware mod to do it though (and didn't in the past either, which is a big difference from "big" consoles). One could always argue that "traditionally low handheld attach rates" which continue to be much lower then consoles even on DS, might have something to do with that fact.

But PSP homebrew gets magazine articles and interviews with hackers that drive it, remind me of last (any)console that had that kind of exposure for the "scene"?

Closest would be Dreamcast.

 

[max-pain]

PSP: 5.75M
SS: 5.74M
N64: 5.54M

 

[rakka]

i know its hard, but do anyone have the photo that taken few years ago at E3 Sony's Press Conference saying "The War Is Already Over" slide show about PS2 vs XBOX vs GC?

 

[sphinx]

Is that Kaz Hirai?

he sure has been losing weight all this years.

 

[gimz]

wow thanks, do you have it saved in your harddrive? i couldn't find it anywhere

 

[Phife Dawg]

Again, I cannot see really why a 20% attach rate is bad. Ok, it's not the 80-85% of Zelda in the USA (btw, best attach rate ever for a non-packed game for the launch?), but it could have legs. What is bad, is that it seems that the hardware has been boosted less then Gundam. And this is bad for the second biggest IP of Sony in Japan.

It's bad because it's the only big game for Japan in a long shot and is the biggest game after Gundam. If people don't buy this game in droves after such a long drought and before another long drought there is not a lot of hope left.

That being said, I don't think it's too bad either. Then again I also think Japan is lost for PS3.

This shit isn't funny anymore. I want a PS3 and it doing so badly in Japan (and NA) is really starting to bother me.

PS3 will still get it's fair share of games and you have some awesome first and second party stuff in the pipelines. The fact Sony isn't the market leader now and probably won't be in the future doesn't change that.

I say this every week, but I really don't get why Sony is ignoring Japan. That's what it blatantly is - ignoring.

No price cuts, no pressure on publishers, insane gaps between noteworthy games. Sony needs to have the PS3 averaging 25-35k units a week to stay competitive in Japan.

Well they did cut the price of the 20gig right from the get-go. But the lack of japan-centric games is really troublesome and confusing.

Why would they do that?

How would we know? But when you look at the first and second party software line-up it's crystal-clear that Sony's focus is on the western markets.

 

[rakka]

How would we know? But when you look at the first and second party software line-up it's crystal-clear that Sony's focus is on the western markets.

Sony hardly won Japan the two previous gens through its first party efforts, did they?

 

[Galactic Fork]

None of the handhelds require a hardware mod to do it though (and didn't in the past either, which is a big difference from "big" consoles). One could always argue that "traditionally low handheld attach rates" which continue to be much lower then consoles even on DS, might have something to do with that fact.

But PSP homebrew gets magazine articles and interviews with hackers that drive it, remind me of last (any)console that had that kind of exposure for the "scene"?

They don't require a 'mod' but they require hardware. You can buy the psp with a memory stick, the ds requires you buy special items like the m3 that you can only order online. Plus you still need to flash your DS with special firmware to play any of the pirated games. I might be mistaken, but I think flashing the DS with new firmware is a lot more involved and risky than the PSP.

As for the attach rate, i wouldn't think piracy would be the issue with the GBA seeing that the demographic was skewed much younger. And I think the younger demographics might be partially to blame for the low attach rate, as well as the low system price. Price of entry is lower so it's more likely people would buy a system only for one game.

Also, you can't just look at the system's overall attach rate, you have to look at current trends.

On a personal note, I don't know how rampant piracy is in the PSP really, it's easy, but what percentage of PSP owners do it? I know it's popular on gaming forums, but how does that translate to reality?

 

[sphinx]

PS3 will still get it's fair share of games and you have some awesome first and second party stuff in the pipelines. The fact Sony isn't the market leader now and probably won't be in the future doesn't change that.

I can tell you weren't gamecube-only last gen....

EDIT: your post makes perfect sense, but the games' drought of a 3rd place console is nearly unbearable.

 

[ethelred]

I can tell you weren't gamecube-only last gen....

Yikes. I feel sorry for anyone who was... actually, no, I don't. :lol

 

[justchris]

I'm gonna have to say I still think DS will see a price drop this year. It's no longer supply constrained, and Nintendo has put a significant investment into increasing production and shipments. Unless they contracted for a very temporary increase in production, they're going to want more than just for sales to hold steady.

Sure, they're guaranteed a fantastic holiday this year, and they're doing very good in hardware and software, but a drop to the magic $99 price point (or the Japanese equivalent, 10,000Y?) could help push a lot of older software this holiday season (stuff like Kirby SS, YIDS, Love & Berry and the like). At least in Japan and the US, a pricedrop around about September makes sense, along with the introduction of the first 'Player's Choice' line of DS titles. That'll put a lot of DS's, well okay a lot more DS's, into people's hands shortly before DQIX releases (and Zelda PH in the US). I'm not sure on Europe, DS seems to be selling ridiculously well there, as it is in Japan, but I'm not sure if there are shortages or not.

As for the Wii, if it keeps up what it's doing (and the release schedule for the rest of this year pretty much seems to guarantee it will) it may go longer than the 360 without an official price drop.

Edit: Muddled Greatest Hits & Player's Choice into some weird amalgam of terror. Fixed now.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

No offense, but when the system is selling 150k a week, it probably doesn't need a price drop any time soon.

 

[Pureauthor]

The old line goes that the system in the best position to drop the price is the one that doesn't need to.

 

[icecream]

TGS will save the PS3.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Is that Kaz Hirai?

he sure has been losing weight all this years.

Oh shit. I know Sony took some missteps with PS3, but until now I didn't realize things had reached "gypsy curse" level.

 

[titiklabingapat]

PS3 will still get it's fair share of games and you have some awesome first and second party stuff in the pipelines. The fact Sony isn't the market leader now and probably won't be in the future doesn't change that.

The problem is that alot of these Sony published games are unproven. They look good and flashy but if the gameplay don't hold, then you get Lair or Motorstorm. If the stuff with HS turns out to be true(nice presentation but not much actual substance), it could be a disturbing pattern of all flash but little smash.

 

[sphinx]

Yikes. I feel sorry for anyone who was... actually, no, I don't. :lol

nintendo-only fans existed throughout all last gen and I can tell you, post RE4, which launched in january 2005, it was all a gamer's nightmare.

if the PS3 is to be something like the Gamecube, then no PS3 only owner should even try to find some kind of relief in Phife Dawg's words.

it WILL suck, if it turns out like the gamecube.

 

[KINGMOKU]

Is that Kaz Hirai?

he sure has been losing weight all this years.

 

[justchris]

No offense, but when the system is selling 150k a week, it probably doesn't need a price drop any time soon.

I made no claims that they need to, I'm simply saying it could be advantageous to do it sooner rather than later. I obviously don't have all the information Nintendo would have when making the decision, but I'm certain a case could be made for dropping the DS's price this year. And they could sell it at $99 pretty much indefinitely until DS2 (or GBE, whatever they decide on) is released.

I mean, realistically, the way it's selling, they could also sell it at $130 until DS2 is released. It really could go either way, but I stand by my prediction.

 

[frankthurk]

The problem is that alot of these Sony published games are unproven. They look good and flashy but if the gameplay don't hold, then you get Lair or Motorstorm. If the stuff with HS turns out to be true(nice presentation but not much actual substance), it could be a disturbing pattern.

True, I mean we've all played Lair and see how that turned out. And no one bought motorstorm... bomba. And HS has poopy hair technology.

 

[titiklabingapat]

True, I mean we've all played Lair and see how that turned out. And no one bought motorstorm... bomba. And HS has poopy hair technology.

Motorstorm sold pretty good but certainly didn't move much PS3's.

Not in the USA and Japan anyway.