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[Magicpaint]

Yes, but the fun part is, we have no idea who!

True.

 

[KINGMOKU]

Keep in mind that If Nintendo establishes the Wii as the market leader early, they will HAVE the future Final Fantasies as well. The FF series surely isn't set in stone on the Playstation 3.

Look to the DS. Yes, we know Handhelds /= consoles, but third parties will treat it the same way. 3rd parties gravitate to the larger userbase.

Are you sure about that? Look at the DS. There is no doubt left. The DS is mauling the PSP worldwide, and the rift betrween the two is becoming epic in tersm of consoles sold a week, and game sales.

STILL third-parties seem to ignore the thing. I dont know what it is exactly, as it could be a hold over from when Nintendo was a tyrant, and they fear that, but its getting ridiculous.

I stated this before, and I'll say it again;

I honestly feel that this gen you could see a HUGE, and celebrated third-party hit hard times becuase they ignored market trends/stubborness, and you will see a smaller company become massive by backing Nintendo.

It's obvious now that regardless of how the PS3 ends up performing over the long hual, that the Wii is going to perform much, much better then the gamcube, and Third-parties should be announcing stuff for it left and right. I mean for ****S SAKE the Wii has already sold 1.2million consoles in Japan, in a time frame better then the SNES, N64, AND Gamecube! If thats not a signal that Nintendo is back in its homeland, I dont know what is.


These third-parties seem almost in denial. They need to get off thier dead-asses, and get the ball moving already. If the Wii is anything like the DS, Nintendo will not need third-parties for it to be a massive success. Third parties have to get moving, or be prepared for along cold winter.

 

[tanasten]

Tanasten is predicting the death of the Japanese economy. Who do you think holds all this U.S. debt, the Japanese are on that list. Tanasten is predicting the death of the American economy. We need to sell everything and move to Spain. :lol

Japaneses non-people will be fine thougth. They just should be keeping their brain healthy with brain trainings. You know, look at Dommy's words:

That was normal operations for Sony. The reason it made the news is that they normally did that action some other way but were now using a bank, because it was cheaper. It was not a reflection on them trying to "handle" the PS3 project. That was a misunderstood issue in that thread that I thought was cleared up in that thread.

Maybe he is correct, and Sony isn't really in that a bad economical shape.

FF XIII looks beautiful and awesome, and I do think it will have a big impact on the PS3's hardware sales. The PS3 could still sell 10-12 million over its lifetime in Japan. But if Nintendo can consistently release innovative, unorthodox titles (which is yet to be seen) then I think the Wii will end up as a major hit this generation. Still, I don't think they can sustain 100k sales a week over the long term looking at the current release list.

You know, like the DS. Isn't going to happen in a single year. Maybe at next Xmas. Nintendo has delivered a cool system which is selling by itself, now they must add the games to make explode the system. Something like Brain Training. Maybe, Ikea Training? :lol

 

[jarrod]

Resistance sure isn´t a disappointment sales-wise. What other games do you consider to have not met expectations?

AC4 would be the big one... the PS2 ACs each cleared 200k and the expansions even cleared 100k. It was PS3's big game for december and it's probably not even at 50k yet. Definitely not good...

Genji II, Mahjong Fight Club, Sonic and SEGA Golf Club have all done rather badly too, though they're all obviously lower scale, lower visibility games. RR7 and Gundam Crossfire are self evident bombs (Namco expected 1m units each, crazy as usual, but even rational observers expected more than the 100k each they managed). Really, for whatever reason, it seems like only western made 1st party games (Resistance, Motorstorm, F1) are tracking ahead of what people expected. :/

People rag on Zelda TP underperforming, but it alone has moved almost as many units as every PS3 game combined. That's rather telling really...

Someone out there has to know for sure, but didn't older consoles launch at similar prices in Japan and sell better than PS3 is? I thought the PS1 and Saturn debuted at $399 or higher in Japan....and what about Dreamcast over there? Anyway, I don't think it's just price keeping people from buying the machine.

IIRC, in their first 3 weeks on market Saturn moved 400k and PSX moved 350k. PS3 is tracking behind both I believe, and it's the market leading successor platform. :/

 

[Eteric Rice]

Are you sure about that? Look at the DS. There is no doubt left. The DS is mauling the PSP worldwide, and the rift betrween the two is becoming epic in tersm of consoles sold a week, and game sales.

STILL third-parties seem to ignore the thing. I dont know what it is exactly, as it could be a hold over from when Nintendo was a tyrant, and they fear that, but its getting ridiculous.

I stated this before, and I'll say it again;

I honestly feel that this gen you could see a HUGE, and celebrated third-party hit hard times becuase they ignored market trends/stubborness, and you will see a smaller company become massive by backing Nintendo.

It's obvious now that regardless of how the PS3 ends up performing over the long hual, that the Wii is going to perform much, much better then the gamcube, and Third-parties should be announcing stuff for it left and right. I mean for ****S SAKE the Wii has already sold 1.2million consoles in Japan, in a time frame better then the SNES, N64, AND Gamecube! If thats not a signal that Nintendo is back in its homeland, I dont know what is.


These third-parties seem almost in denial. They need to get off thier dead-asses, and get the ball moving already. If the Wii is anything like the DS, Nintendo will not need third-parties for it to be a massive success. Third parties have to get moving, or be prepared for along cold winter.

I think Atlus will be one of those companies.

 

[Fady K]

Glad to see MGSO is doing pretty well.

 

[LJ11]

Tanasten, you will be surprised how many companies tap the Syndicated Loan market for capital. They do it all the time, it's common practice.

 

[TheKingsCrown]

Are you sure about that? Look at the DS. There is no doubt left. The DS is mauling the PSP worldwide, and the rift betrween the two is becoming epic in tersm of consoles sold a week, and game sales.

STILL third-parties seem to ignore the thing. I dont know what it is exactly, as it could be a hold over from when Nintendo was a tyrant, and they fear that, but its getting ridiculous.

I stated this before, and I'll say it again;

I honestly feel that this gen you could see a HUGE, and celebrated third-party hit hard times becuase they ignored market trends/stubborness, and you will see a smaller company become massive by backing Nintendo.

It's obvious now that regardless of how the PS3 ends up performing over the long hual, that the Wii is going to perform much, much better then the gamcube, and Third-parties should be announcing stuff for it left and right. I mean for ****S SAKE the Wii has already sold 1.2million consoles in Japan, in a time frame better then the SNES, N64, AND Gamecube! If thats not a signal that Nintendo is back in its homeland, I dont know what is.


These third-parties seem almost in denial. They need to get off thier dead-asses, and get the ball moving already. If the Wii is anything like the DS, Nintendo will not need third-parties for it to be a massive success. Third parties have to get moving, or be prepared for along cold winter.

Who are you, and how can I talk to you outside of GAF. Smart, smart.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Are you sure about that? Look at the DS. There is no doubt left. The DS is mauling the PSP worldwide, and the rift betrween the two is becoming epic in tersm of consoles sold a week, and game sales.

STILL third-parties seem to ignore the thing. I dont know what it is exactly, as it could be a hold over from when Nintendo was a tyrant, and they fear that, but its getting ridiculous.

I stated this before, and I'll say it again;

I honestly feel that this gen you could see a HUGE, and celebrated third-party hit hard times becuase they ignored market trends/stubborness, and you will see a smaller company become massive by backing Nintendo.

It's obvious now that regardless of how the PS3 ends up performing over the long hual, that the Wii is going to perform much, much better then the gamcube, and Third-parties should be announcing stuff for it left and right. I mean for ****S SAKE the Wii has already sold 1.2million consoles in Japan, in a time frame better then the SNES, N64, AND Gamecube! If thats not a signal that Nintendo is back in its homeland, I dont know what is.


These third-parties seem almost in denial. They need to get off thier dead-asses, and get the ball moving already. If the Wii is anything like the DS, Nintendo will not need third-parties for it to be a massive success. Third parties have to get moving, or be prepared for along cold winter.

You present a good point. The ignoring of the DS from 3rd parties is mind boggling, though to be fair, PSP support outside of Konami is lacking as well.

What I attribute this to is:

- The belief that Playstation franchises may not do well on Nintendo consoles
- Being underway with titles before the DS boom
- Not wishing to support handhelds.

The console space is a bit different. Hypothetically speaking, If Nintendo dominates both the handheld and console space, any 3rd party that doesn't support them is begging for an early grave. Also, While the Wii is domintating early, it is still EARLY. To be knee jerk about any decisions as a company would be foolhardy.

As far as Square is concerned, however, I stand by my statement. Square has long made it known that they know the fans will follow their franchises, and tradititionally support the strongest system. So if the Wii is an unbridled success, my belief is that they will have Final Fantasy as well.

 

[tanasten]

Tanasten, you will be surprised how many companies tap the Syndicated Loan market for capital. They do it all the time, it's common practice.

I don't know. I can't discuss it with you. The news I rode months ago talking about Sony's financials problems is so old that I can't find the link. So I really don't have nothing to counter-argue you.

And I'm trusting you. I know that Syndical funds to helps companies does exists all over the world. I have been triying to get money from one of them to fund my own company (withouth luck by now).

So, I must accept that Sony isn't diying anytime soon. I will have to wait

 

[Kandinsky]

non-people

!

 

[Bungalow Bob]

Its up to Nintendo to choose the winner.

If they can deliver a good line-up for a domestic console again (last time they did it was in the 90's), Wii will win. If they don't, then it will be Square-Enix turn.

Just look at DS. Even with 0 3rd party support, they would have sold the same, its the Nintendo software the one selling the console. They delivered (Brain Training, Nintendogs, Animal Crossing, Mario, Pokemon) and so they win. And it seems they are delivering looking at Wii Sports and Wii Play. Sony just won't even have a chance.

You´re forgetting about one important thing: portable attach rates are generally lower than console attach rates. This means that it would be much harder for Nintendo to single handedly carry the Wii than the DS. They´d have to release more than twice as many games on Wii as they have released on DS (in a similar timeframe), and they simply don´t have the resources to do that. Luckily for Nintendo, 3rd party support has started out better for Wii than DS (or GC or N64).

 

[jarrod]

You´re forgetting about one important thing: portable attach rates are generally lower than console attach rates. This means that it would be much harder for Nintendo to single handedly carry the Wii than the DS. They´d have to release more than twice as many games on Wii as they have released on DS (in a similar timeframe), and they simply don´t have the resources to do that. Luckily for Nintendo, 3rd party support has started out better for Wii than DS (or GC or N64).

Flawed logic though, as JP attach rates for DS sees to be more console equivalent than compared to the Game Boys or PSP. Lowered handheld attach rates is a more western phenomenon anyway really.

 

[tanasten]

You´re forgetting about one important thing: portable attach rates are generally lower than console attach rates. This means that it would be much harder for Nintendo to single handedly carry the Wii than the DS. They´d have to release more than twice as many games on Wii as they have released on DS (in a similar timeframe), and they simply don´t have the resources to do that. Luckily for Nintendo, 3rd party support has started out better for Wii than DS (or GC or N64).

Well, Nintendo could do Brain Training's as quick on the Wii as on the DS. It's easier on the Wii and faster, but would require a bit more of resources for the graphics. The budget of the game depends of the game outcome, not the system you're selling the game.

Of course, if you pretend to sell a game to the userbase who buys Final Fantasy, you're not going right with Brain Training's budget

 

[KINGMOKU]

You present a good point. The ignoring of the DS from 3rd parties is mind boggling, though to be fair, PSP support outside of Konami is lacking as well.

What I attribute this to is:

- The belief that Playstation franchises may not do well on Nintendo consoles
- Being underway with titles before the DS boom
- Not wishing to support handhelds.

The console space is a bit different. Hypothetically speaking, If Nintendo dominates both the handheld and console space, any 3rd party that doesn't support them is begging for an early grave. Also, While the Wii is domintating early, it is still EARLY. To be knee jerk about any decisions as a company would be foolhardy.

As far as Square is concerned, however, I stand by my statement. Square has long made it known that they know the fans will follow their franchises, and tradititionally support the strongest system. So if the Wii is an unbridled success, my belief is that they will have Final Fantasy as well.

Everything you just said makes sense, save for the Wii portions. 1.2million consoles in 7weeks. That cannot be ignored, and the exact same thing that happened with the DS, is happening with the Wii. How long does it take to make a knee-jerk reaction? 2months? 4months? A knee-jekr would be a company announcing a game right after E3. It's now two months since launch and the Wii is sold out around the planet. Yet, third-parties remain silent.

Honestly, If I was Konami, I would at least announce intentions of making games for the Wii, with teasers about what they could be. Same goes for Capcom. They have ZERO excuse. Start talk about the Wii, and how they have games in production, e.t.c.

I honestly dont know what devs are waiting for. What more does Nintendo have to do? Maybe third-parties are used to being treated a certain way by Sony for games, and exclusives that Nintendo wont hand out.

The key thing here is this;

The DS is, and became a phenom without any third-party games The Wii so far is also following this same path.

Jump on the wagon now, or be left picking table scraps off the floor. It's not hard to see whats happening here. It may be difficult to understand, or even accept it, but guess what? Buisness is biusness, move on, or get left behind.

 

[tanasten]

Everything you just said makes sense, save for the Wii portions. 1.2million consoles in 7weeks. That cannot be ignored, and the exact same thing that happened with the DS, is happening with the Wii. How long does it take to make a knee-jerk reaction? 2months? 4months? A knee-jekr would be a company announcing a game right after E3. It's now two months since launch and the Wii is sold out around the planet. Yet, third-parties remain silent.

Honestly, If I was Konami, I would at least announce intentions of making games for the Wii, with teasers about what they could be. Same goes for Capcom. They have ZERO excuse. Start talk about the Wii, and how they have games in production, e.t.c.

I honestly dont know what devs are waiting for. What more does Nintendo have to do? Maybe third-parties are used to being treated a certain way by Sony for games, and exclusives that Nintendo wont hand out.

The key thing here is this;

The DS is, and became a phenom without any third-party games The Wii so far is also following this same path.

Jump on the wagon now, or be left picking table scraps off the floor. It's not hard to see whats happening here. It may be difficult to understand, or even accept it, but guess what? Buisness is biusness, move on, or get left behind.

Well, you're asking how long until bail out, but know what? 3rd parties are still putting their biggest resouces on PSP instead of DS (Taito and Square-Enix are the excepcion to confirm the rule). Now, THAT'S CRAZY. Money Bandwagon is having wild ridding, and third parties are doing Megamans, Metal Gears and Gokoimura's for PSP. Doesn't make sense at all!

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Are you sure about that? Look at the DS. There is no doubt left. The DS is mauling the PSP worldwide, and the rift betrween the two is becoming epic in tersm of consoles sold a week, and game sales.

STILL third-parties seem to ignore the thing. I dont know what it is exactly, as it could be a hold over from when Nintendo was a tyrant, and they fear that, but its getting ridiculous.

I stated this before, and I'll say it again;

I honestly feel that this gen you could see a HUGE, and celebrated third-party hit hard times becuase they ignored market trends/stubborness, and you will see a smaller company become massive by backing Nintendo.

It's obvious now that regardless of how the PS3 ends up performing over the long hual, that the Wii is going to perform much, much better then the gamcube, and Third-parties should be announcing stuff for it left and right. I mean for ****S SAKE the Wii has already sold 1.2million consoles in Japan, in a time frame better then the SNES, N64, AND Gamecube! If thats not a signal that Nintendo is back in its homeland, I dont know what is.


These third-parties seem almost in denial. They need to get off thier dead-asses, and get the ball moving already. If the Wii is anything like the DS, Nintendo will not need third-parties for it to be a massive success. Third parties have to get moving, or be prepared for along cold winter.

Good post. In fact I don't know why Third Parties, outside Square-Enix and someone else, are not support the Nintendo DS. At this point, with an insane userbase installed, is really absurde.

Perhaps one explication, as already said, could be that non-Nintendo's franchises on Nintendo's console dont' sell very well, but this is not always true, because Square-Enix is smashing a lot of records on DS and with what ? Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy. Final Fantasy & Dragon Quest. Perhaps the problem is that Third parties are not trying to do some good, original game. Apart some good game like Castlevania, the rest of the store is trash. I'm not kidding.
And at the end, the Third Party Support is not big for the Nintendo DS from Capcom, Konami, Namco or Bandai.
What are they waiting for, I don't know !!!

 

[Deku]

If there is going to be a shift in support it will take time.

A lot of PSP support were predicated on two assumptions 1) PSP was going to win outright 2) PS3 was going to win outright.

When the PSP started lagging point #2 remained viable and 3rd parties surely wanted to appear loyal to remain on Sony's good side when the PS3 takes off and to keep their fanbase satisfied (presumably, they will be on the PS3)

Point #2 has to be disproven before you'll see a massive shift. In the most likely scenario where PS3 isn't a PSP but actually begins to take off later in the year, but Wii remains a significant player in the market, 3rd parties will also plan accordingly. But I think there's just a lot of waiting in the sidelines at this point and it is all very political.

 

[Error]

Are you sure about that? Look at the DS. There is no doubt left. The DS is mauling the PSP worldwide, and the rift betrween the two is becoming epic in tersm of consoles sold a week, and game sales.

STILL third-parties seem to ignore the thing. I dont know what it is exactly, as it could be a hold over from when Nintendo was a tyrant, and they fear that, but its getting ridiculous.

eh what? DS is getting Dragon ****ING Quest 9 if that's not major support from a 3rd party I dont know what it is.

the only 3rd party companies that are still clueless when it comes to games for the system are Konami and Capcom (they are treating it like they treated the gba with Castlevania and Megaman respectively being their 'major' games for the system).

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Everything you just said makes sense, save for the Wii portions. 1.2million consoles in 7weeks. That cannot be ignored, and the exact same thing that happened with the DS, is happening with the Wii. How long does it take to make a knee-jerk reaction? 2months? 4months? A knee-jekr would be a company announcing a game right after E3. It's now two months since launch and the Wii is sold out around the planet. Yet, third-parties remain silent.

Honestly, If I was Konami, I would at least announce intentions of making games for the Wii, with teasers about what they could be. Same goes for Capcom. They have ZERO excuse. Start talk about the Wii, and how they have games in production, e.t.c.

I honestly dont know what devs are waiting for. What more does Nintendo have to do? Maybe third-parties are used to being treated a certain way by Sony for games, and exclusives that Nintendo wont hand out.

The key thing here is this;

The DS is, and became a phenom without any third-party games The Wii so far is also following this same path.

Jump on the wagon now, or be left picking table scraps off the floor. It's not hard to see whats happening here. It may be difficult to understand, or even accept it, but guess what? Buisness is biusness, move on, or get left behind.

The reality is terrrible but it is the true.

DURA LEX, SED LEX.

 

[jimbo]

If history has shown us anything is that ANYTHING can happen. But most of the times, launches, early starts have little bearing on final outcome.

The reasons why a console came in first NEVER had ANYTHING to do with how many it sold in the first 6 months, it was never solely based on brand, and it never had anything to do with "bringing videogaming back to its roots".

The Genesis had a lead on the SNES. The SNES won.
The Playstation came along. So going by the notion that brand wins, Sega and Nintendo should have won. They didn't.
Saturn outsold it at first. Playstation won.
The Dreamcast launched waaayy ahead of everybody. Broke launch sales records. Should have won right? Wrong. Sega went third party.
The PS2 launched, had awesome sales from the start to the end. It won( THE ONLY system I can think of that actually followed that train of logic)
The DS? Started off slow. Now it's tearing up the charts.
The PSP started off fast. Now it's way behind.

Now are any of those arguments solid evidence to judge future sales trends by them? **** NO!

The 360 getting to 10 million first will have very little to do with it winning the console war if it does it.
The Wii beating the PS3 initially and having a great start does not mean it will win the generation, NOT EVEN JAPAN.
The PS3 starting slow would mean absolutely nothing if it were to come back and beat everyone else....it would simply do what the Playstation has already done?( GAF will be shocked...I won't)

All of these things are just as likely to happen, and if they do they will have nothing to do on the statements I wrote above, they will have nothing to do with the current sales, they will have nothing to do with brand, they will have nothing to do with record launches.

Looking at history, all of the statements GAF loves to make, all the assumptions, have already been proven wrong. Nothing in that history has any consistency whatsoever except for one thing:

If you look at each system that ended up selling a ton, they all had the same things going for them. From the NES to the DS......the systems that won were the ones that had the most games that people wanted to play at the most affordable price on a type of media that was cheap to create for developers. OR if it ddn't have all 3 it the other 2 were such at an overwhelimng advantage over the competition's that it did not matter.

Media is no longer a problem this generation. All three systems have cheap media, discs. The only two things remaining that will be the deciding factors are games and price.

Whoever has the best combination of price and software for the longest period of time will win.

Right now none of them have this. The Wii is cheap....but it does not yet have the line-up, and the other big problem is it's using an interesting controller to make it compete with the other true next-gen systems. Otherwise it wouldn't even be mentioned. The PS3? It has neither at the moment, but it STILL has the potential for having the best software, and Sony has the power to make it affordable. Whether this happens at the right time, remains to be seen, but as long as it has this potential, it has the power to come back and beat everyone. And the 360? Well it needs more Japanese support, but it's currently best in position to get to that magic software + price point before the others and stay there.


I'll qoute it again for those that missed it or don't care to read all my crap:

Whoever has the best combination of price and software for the longest period of time will win.

That was, is, and will be the ONLY true constant in determining the winner. Media Create sales Jan 8-14....will have no bearing on the outcome.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Everything you just said makes sense, save for the Wii portions. 1.2million consoles in 7weeks. That cannot be ignored, and the exact same thing that happened with the DS, is happening with the Wii. How long does it take to make a knee-jerk reaction? 2months? 4months? A knee-jekr would be a company announcing a game right after E3. It's now two months since launch and the Wii is sold out around the planet. Yet, third-parties remain silent.

Honestly, If I was Konami, I would at least announce intentions of making games for the Wii, with teasers about what they could be. Same goes for Capcom. They have ZERO excuse. Start talk about the Wii, and how they have games in production, e.t.c.

I honestly dont know what devs are waiting for. What more does Nintendo have to do? Maybe third-parties are used to being treated a certain way by Sony for games, and exclusives that Nintendo wont hand out.

The key thing here is this;

The DS is, and became a phenom without any third-party games The Wii so far is also following this same path.

Jump on the wagon now, or be left picking table scraps off the floor. It's not hard to see whats happening here. It may be difficult to understand, or even accept it, but guess what? Buisness is biusness, move on, or get left behind.

I completely agree. I've been watching a few developers recently, and this is how I think the major (Japanese) ones break down:

Konami - Konami looks to be wary about the potential. They're sending out feelers (such as Elebits and Kojima's Stock-trading game for DS) But for the most part they are adopting the wait-and-see.

Capcom - Capcom is doing what Capcom does: supporting the underdog. They did it with the GameCube (to an extent) they're doing it with the Playstation Portable, and they're doing it with the 360 (and the 360 has paid off like gangbusters for them). Capcom loves being the big fish in a small pond. We won't hear much out of them until both the Wii and PS3 build their userbase.

Square Enix - They're confident as all hell in the FF and DQ franchises. They've already made a move with DQ, and gauging the Wii market with games like Crystal Chronicles and DQ Swords. Square seems to me to be doing the same thing with the Wii as they did with the DS, watching it's success before throwing weight behind it. I expect something big from Square for the Wii in the next 6 months.

As for your "How long is long enough to wait" question, my guess is the first 8 months or so. Looking into history, most console wars are decided within the first year, so now that all three systems are out we will see movements being made.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Whoever has the best combination of price and software for the longest period of time will win.

This doesn't explain the DS' success. It was lagging behind the PSP for a considerable amount of time. One game broke it wide open and that was Nintendogs. The flow of titles helped maintain the lead, yes, but without that breakthrough game things could have been quite different.

 

[MrSardonic]

I´ve had these expectations all along.... Too bad my account took so long to validate.

yeah, too bad, we could have done with your analysis sooner

One single game change all: Final Fantasy. And guess for which console is developed Final Fantasy XIII? The PS3. And MGS4? And Devil May Cry 4? Sorry, but Sony has not lost the battle

It was not simply Final Fantasy. Sony have already lost DQIX to the DS and the idea that FFXIII is going to single-handedly save the PS3 when it comes out in 2008 is ridiculous. MGS &DMC? Not a big sellers in Japan

They delivered (Brain Training, Nintendogs, Animal Crossing, Mario, Pokemon) and so they win. And it seems they are delivering looking at Wii Sports and Wii Play. Sony just won't even have a chance.

This is a good point. Nintendo has been responsible for the initial success of their hardware in Japan - they could have sold 8m DS this year without any third party support and they could have sold all their Wii shipment without any third party support. When their software failed to appeal to the consumer, hardware sales were slow and third parties never jumped aboard in any significant way.

Nintendo has guaranteed that third parties have to support the DS if they want to capitalize on the most successful hardware in the industry. They have made the hardware a phenomenon, not just in Japan but globally, and the correct forms of software are performing to incredible levels. If they can pull the same trick with Wii then third parties will also be forced to support the console.

It's pretty incredible to see Nintendo's success in Japan and the potential for the company not only to lead but dominate on both handheld & home console fronts in that market. The success of Wii is going to depend largely on Nintendo's software throughout 2007.

You have to think that Nintendo has lost all the Third party Support during the N64's era and they survived only with their franchises and with the power of Rareware. Sony is not in this situation yet, so I would be careful to compare the PS3 to the N64.

But Sony have never had the 1st party power or efficiency that Nintendo has.

I honestly feel that this gen you could see a HUGE, and celebrated third-party hit hard times becuase they ignored market trends/stubborness, and you will see a smaller company become massive by backing Nintendo.

I agree. But the whole point of the DS/Wii philosophy was to provide a healthy environment for smaller developers with innovative ideas. There could well be a reshuffle in the major third parties too, and some could suffer quite marked decline over the next 4 years as a result of their failure to adequately adapt to the changes in the Japanese (and global to some extent) market that Nintendo has instigated. Square-Enix are the first major player to recognise the role DS could play in their profits. Wii is going to be much bigger than GC, and DS is going to be the best selling hardware of 2005-2010.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

eh what? DS is getting Dragon ****ING Quest 9 if that's not major support from a 3rd party I dont know what it is.

the only 3rd party companies that are still clueless when it comes to games for the system are Konami and Capcom (they are treating it like they treated the gba with Castlevania and Megaman respectively being their 'major' games for the system).

Sorry, but you quoted the only Third Party Developer that is supporting seriously the Nintendo DS. Where is Namco ? And Bandai ? And Konami ? And Banpresto ? And Tecmo ? And Sega ? And Capcom ?

 

[jimbo]

The DS is, and became a phenom without any third-party games The Wii so far is also following this same path.

This is one of the most popular and at the same time inaccurate correlations I have heard by Nintendo fans since the DS started doing well. People talked about Sony's brand recognition with the PS3 and Playstation and used it as an argument to assure the PS3's success. While I believe brand has little to do with the success of these systems, when you have three other very popular brands, I do believe MARKET DOMINANCE can help you.

And even though people used that Sony line so much...everyone's ignoring the biggest fact of the hand-held wars when it comes to PSP vs DS.

NINTENDO has had a MONOPOLY for almost 30 years!!!

And while it's kicking the PSP's butt right now...in reality Nintendo has LOST market share with the DS compared to previous systems. At one point they OWNED 98% of the hand-held market. 98%!!!!! And all of their systems were backwards compatible.

That MAY have had something to do with the DS success, but I could be wrong.

 

[BorkBork]

This doesn't explain the DS' success. It was lagging behind the PSP for a considerable amount of time. One game broke it wide open and that was Nintendogs. The flow of titles helped maintain the lead, yes, but without that breakthrough game things could have been quite different.

DS was never lagging behind the PSP in any territory in installed base.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

This is one of the most popular and at the same time inaccurate correlations I have heard by Nintendo fans since the DS started doing well. People talked about Sony's brand recognition with the PS3 and Playstation and used it as an argument to assure the PS3's success. While I believe brand has little to do with the success of these systems, when you have three other very popular brands, I do believe MARKET DOMINANCE can help you.

And even though people used that Sony line so much...everyone's ignoring the biggest fact of the hand-held wars when it comes to PSP vs DS.

NINTENDO has had a MONOPOLY for almost 30 years!!!

And while it's kicking the PSP's butt right now...in reality Nintendo has LOST market share with the DS compared to previous systems. At one point they OWNED 98% of the hand-held market. 98%!!!!! And all of their systems were backwards compatible.

That MAY have had something to do with the DS success, but I could be wrong.

Oh good, we're doing this again.

 

[Timbuktu]

Nintendo has learnt from GC that third-parties and even second-parties are to unreliable to be depended on. If all those second/third party games they were counting on actually pulled through and came on time, GC would have been in a much better position.

If Nintendo actualy dominates both markets, a lot of companies are in for a tough time.

 

[plank]

hardware sales go.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

This is one of the most popular and at the same time inaccurate correlations I have heard by Nintendo fans since the DS started doing well. People talked about Sony's brand recognition with the PS3 and Playstation and used it as an argument to assure the PS3's success. While I believe brand has little to do with the success of these systems, when you have three other very popular brands, I do believe MARKET DOMINANCE can help you.

And even though people used that Sony line so much...everyone's ignoring the biggest fact of the hand-held wars when it comes to PSP vs DS.

NINTENDO has had a MONOPOLY for almost 30 years!!!

And while it's kicking the PSP's butt right now...in reality Nintendo has LOST market share with the DS compared to previous systems. At one point they OWNED 98% of the hand-held market. 98%!!!!! And all of their systems were backwards compatible.

That MAY have had something to do with the DS success, but I could be wrong.

Oh God, I expected better than this tired argument out of you jimbo.

Nintendo owned the console market for 15 years. Didn't help them there.

 

[Rock_Man]

I'm now updating this graph that I created four weeks ago.

 

[sphinx]

You guys must uderstand something before claiming 3rd parties are morons for not announcing Wii support at this point in time.

All companies believe that each console has specific "demoraphic", mainly divided in 2.

ps/xbox are for the mature audience
nintendo is for the younger audience

I remember that when Wii was announced, THQ made claims like " fantastic, nintendo's tradition of appealing to younger audiences will mean succes for all our licensed games ( cartoons based games, pixar movies games, etc. )

The same with konami, they brought your quirky, cute, nice, friendly elebits to the Wii, not your MGS spin-off or your silent hill spin-off.

Since most of the bigger companies' gamelists has 80% adult themed games, they sure are thinking they are screwed if the Wii succeeds. Wii destroying 360 and PS3 in the markets is the worst scenario for like 90% of western developers.

It actually seems like they don't want the wii to get too powerful, no wonder why it won't get the support it could, had it a badass name ( wii??) and a cool slick sexy look.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

DS was never lagging behind the PSP in any territory in installed base.

They were in weekly sales. They were resting on lead in the US and Japan for the first few months.

 

[cartman414]

6. (DS, Nintendo) More Brain Age - 32,865 / 3,838,652
7. (DS, Nintendo) Animal Crossing Wild World - 32,864 / 3,876,696

Wow. Has that ever happened before?

This is one of the most popular and at the same time inaccurate correlations I have heard by Nintendo fans since the DS started doing well. People talked about Sony's brand recognition with the PS3 and Playstation and used it as an argument to assure the PS3's success. While I believe brand has little to do with the success of these systems, when you have three other very popular brands, I do believe MARKET DOMINANCE can help you.

And even though people used that Sony line so much...everyone's ignoring the biggest fact of the hand-held wars when it comes to PSP vs DS.

NINTENDO has had a MONOPOLY for almost 30 years!!!

And while it's kicking the PSP's butt right now...in reality Nintendo has LOST market share with the DS compared to previous systems. At one point they OWNED 98% of the hand-held market. 98%!!!!! And all of their systems were backwards compatible.

You're missing one technicality. With the success of the DS, they grew the handheld pie.

 

[Error]

NINTENDO has had a MONOPOLY for almost 30 years!!!

And while it's kicking the PSP's butt right now...in reality Nintendo has LOST market share with the DS compared to previous systems. At one point they OWNED 98% of the hand-held market. 98%!!!!! And all of their systems were backwards compatible.

That MAY have had something to do with the DS success, but I could be wrong.

who cares about market share when the system is selling way more than the GBA did?

 

[jimbo]

This doesn't explain the DS' success. It was lagging behind the PSP for a considerable amount of time. One game broke it wide open and that was Nintendogs. The flow of titles helped maintain the lead, yes, but without that breakthrough game things could have been quite different.

How does that not explain it? Nintendogs falls dead CENTER into software most people wanted to buy. And the subsequent release only solidified that.

It's actually a perfect example of my statement. It's software,in this case BIG software, BIG POPULAR software at a time when their competitors had nothing to combat it and it was affordable to get. GTA was the same. FF7 was the same. Just because Nintendogs was the first and helped start the trend....doesn't make it not fit into that statement. It fits very well. One HUGE game can make up for a lot of smaller, yet demanded games, but eventually it would have still needed the software it's currently getting it.

The great thing that worked in Nintendo's favor, is that they were able to deliver this themselves, one hit after another, before third parties were able to do it on the PSP.

 

[tanasten]

This is one of the most popular and at the same time inaccurate correlations I have heard by Nintendo fans since the DS started doing well. People talked about Sony's brand recognition with the PS3 and Playstation and used it as an argument to assure the PS3's success. While I believe brand has little to do with the success of these systems, when you have three other very popular brands, I do believe MARKET DOMINANCE can help you.

And even though people used that Sony line so much...everyone's ignoring the biggest fact of the hand-held wars when it comes to PSP vs DS.

NINTENDO has had a MONOPOLY for almost 30 years!!!

And while it's kicking the PSP's butt right now...in reality Nintendo has LOST market share with the DS compared to previous systems. At one point they OWNED 98% of the hand-held market. 98%!!!!! And all of their systems were backwards compatible.

That MAY have had something to do with the DS success, but I could be wrong.

Talking about percentatges its stupid right now. Talk about numbers, not market share. Saying Nintendo is losing because they now have less market share its stupid, because Nintendo is wining over market share in numbers respectful the GBA. When you're alone in a room, you can have 100% of the room, when you're with someone, this someone has atleast is vital space.

What's important it's to see if Nintendo expanded it's market, and by God, they DID.

You guys must uderstand something before claiming 3rd parties are morons for not announcing Wii support at this point in time.

All companies believe that each console has specific "demoraphic", mainly divided in 2.

ps/xbox are for the mature audience
nintendo is for the younger audience

I remember that when Wii was announced, THQ made claims like " fantastic, nintendo's tradition of appealing to younger audiences will mean succes for all our licensed games ( cartoons based games, pixar movies games, etc. )

The same with konami, they brought your quirky, cute, nice, friendly elebits to the Wii, not your MGS spin-off or your silent hill spin-off.

Since most of the bigger companies' gamelists has 80% adult themed games, they sure are thinking they are screwed if the Wii succeeds. Wii destroying 360 and PS3 in the markets is the worst scenario for like 90% of western developers.

It actually seems like they don't want the wii to get too powerful, no wonder why it won't get the support it could, had it a badass name ( wii??) and a cool slick sexy look.

And just like with the DS, those morons misleaded the demografics. Wii is a systems that is selling to an broader, more open than PS3 or XBOX360 demographics. Wii defines elegancy and modernism, and the actual catalog, with Wii Sports has more appeal than Xbox360 and it's full catalog to older people. Kids are in since day 1 just by the Wiimote concept.

So yes, I know that companies does estimates of demographics, but they should know that they're completely wrong thinking that the Wii is a Kid's system, completely wrong.

 

[Joe Molotov]

This is one of the most popular and at the same time inaccurate correlations I have heard by Nintendo fans since the DS started doing well. People talked about Sony's brand recognition with the PS3 and Playstation and used it as an argument to assure the PS3's success. While I believe brand has little to do with the success of these systems, when you have three other very popular brands, I do believe MARKET DOMINANCE can help you.

And even though people used that Sony line so much...everyone's ignoring the biggest fact of the hand-held wars when it comes to PSP vs DS.

NINTENDO has had a MONOPOLY for almost 30 years!!!

And while it's kicking the PSP's butt right now...in reality Nintendo has LOST market share with the DS compared to previous systems. At one point they OWNED 98% of the hand-held market. 98%!!!!! And all of their systems were backwards compatible.

That MAY have had something to do with the DS success, but I could be wrong.

Oh geez, I thought we all agreed last time that "PSP caused Nintendo to lose marketshare" was the most retarded freaking argument in the history of GAF.

 

[jimbo]

Oh God, I expected better than this tired argument out of you jimbo.

Nintendo owned the console market for 15 years. Didn't help them there.

Just because an argument is tired and has been used a lot before doesn't make it less true.

BOLDED = Bullshit. They never owned the console market my friend. They came in first....they never owned it and you know it. When there was SNES, there was Genesis...a fine adversary. When there was NES there was Master System. When there was Playstation there was N64. When there was PS2 there was GC and Xbox.

No one has EVER dominated the consoles like Nintendo dominated hand-helds.

The PSP is the first decent adversary Nintendo has EVER had in the hand-held market.

 

[starship]

This is one of the most popular and at the same time inaccurate correlations I have heard by Nintendo fans since the DS started doing well. People talked about Sony's brand recognition with the PS3 and Playstation and used it as an argument to assure the PS3's success. While I believe brand has little to do with the success of these systems, when you have three other very popular brands, I do believe MARKET DOMINANCE can help you.

And even though people used that Sony line so much...everyone's ignoring the biggest fact of the hand-held wars when it comes to PSP vs DS.

NINTENDO has had a MONOPOLY for almost 30 years!!!

And while it's kicking the PSP's butt right now...in reality Nintendo has LOST market share with the DS compared to previous systems. At one point they OWNED 98% of the hand-held market. 98%!!!!! And all of their systems were backwards compatible.

That MAY have had something to do with the DS success, but I could be wrong.

Wow, some stupid words here.
First its not 30 years, more like 15 years, and it didn't help them.
Also talking about market share is stupid.
I can have 100% market share without competition and only sell 10k of a product, or have 70% market share and sell 10m of a product. Which one is better?
Nintendo had never sold 23m pieces of a handheld in a year before DS.

 

[Error]

The PSP is the first decent adversary Nintendo has EVER had in the hand-held market.

so...?

 

[soundwave05]

I don't know about the regular main FF games, but if the Wii wins Japan I think it will get stuff like Dragon Quest X, maybe a Nintendo-Square-Enix "Hearts" crossover RPG, and perhaps the much fabled Final Fantasy VII Remake. Stuff like that from Square-Enix.

Which is fine by me.

 

[jimbo]

Talking about percentatges its stupid right now. Talk about numbers, not market share. Saying Nintendo is losing because they now have less market share its stupid, because Nintendo is wining over market share in numbers respectful the GBA. When you're alone in a room, you can have 100% of the room, when you're with someone, this someone has atleast is vital space.

What's important it's to see if Nintendo expanded it's market, and by God, they DID.

Uhm, why are you guys twisting my words? I never claimed that Nintendo is losing in tn the hand-held department. My only point was that it DOMINATED the hand-helds like no one else for the longest time.

The market share was simply an example to show HOW MUCH they dominated in the past. The real point is that they had a monopoly.

Nintendo to hand-helds is like Microsoft to PC operating systems.

That's like being surprised that the next version of Windows, VISTA will outsell Linux again.

 

[sphinx]

No one has EVER dominated the consoles like Nintendo dominated hand-helds.

I can definitely tell you weren't there around 1985-1990 during the NES era.....

 

[NintendosBooger]

Just because an argument is tired and has been used a lot before doesn't make it less true.

BOLDED = Bullshit. They never owned the console market my friend. They came in first....they never owned it and you know it. When there was SNES, there was Genesis...a fine adversary. When there was NES there was Master System. When there was Playstation there was N64. When there was PS2 there was GC and Xbox.

No one has EVER dominated the consoles like Nintendo dominated hand-helds.

The PSP is the first decent adversary Nintendo has EVER had in the hand-held market.

Define "decent," because the Game Gear was around for 6 years. And if you stand by your ramblings, the Game Boy lost market share as a result.

 

[charlequin]

Just because an argument is tired and has been used a lot before doesn't make it less true.

No, being dumb and wrong makes it less true.

 

[Error]

Uhm, why are you guys twisting my words? I never claimed that Nintendo is losing in tn the hand-held department. My only point was that it DOMINATED the hand-helds like no one else for the longest time.

The market share was simply an example to show HOW MUCH they dominated in the past. The real point is that they had a monopoly.

Nintendo to hand-helds is like Microsoft to PC operating systems.

That's like being surprised that the next version of Windows, VISTA will outsell Linux again.

your whole argument falls flat on its face because the DS is selling way ****ing more than the GBA ever did, starship said it perfectly in his post.

 

[Mar]

If history has shown us anything is that ANYTHING can happen. But most of the times, launches, early starts have little bearing on final outcome.

The reasons why a console came in first NEVER had ANYTHING to do with how many it sold in the first 6 months, it was never solely based on brand, and it never had anything to do with "bringing videogaming back to its roots".

The Genesis had a lead on the SNES. The SNES won.
The Playstation came along. So going by the notion that brand wins, Sega and Nintendo should have won. They didn't.
Saturn outsold it at first. Playstation won.
The Dreamcast launched waaayy ahead of everybody. Broke launch sales records. Should have won right? Wrong. Sega went third party.
The PS2 launched, had awesome sales from the start to the end. It won( THE ONLY system I can think of that actually followed that train of logic)
The DS? Started off slow. Now it's tearing up the charts.
The PSP started off fast. Now it's way behind.

Now are any of those arguments solid evidence to judge future sales trends by them? **** NO!

The 360 getting to 10 million first will have very little to do with it winning the console war if it does it.
The Wii beating the PS3 initially and having a great start does not mean it will win the generation, NOT EVEN JAPAN.
The PS3 starting slow would mean absolutely nothing if it were to come back and beat everyone else....it would simply do what the Playstation has already done?( GAF will be shocked...I won't)

All of these things are just as likely to happen, and if they do they will have nothing to do on the statements I wrote above, they will have nothing to do with the current sales, they will have nothing to do with brand, they will have nothing to do with record launches.

Looking at history, all of the statements GAF loves to make, all the assumptions, have already been proven wrong. Nothing in that history has any consistency whatsoever except for one thing:

If you look at each system that ended up selling a ton, they all had the same things going for them. From the NES to the DS......the systems that won were the ones that had the most games that people wanted to play at the most affordable price on a type of media that was cheap to create for developers. OR if it ddn't have all 3 it the other 2 were such at an overwhelimng advantage over the competition's that it did not matter.

Media is no longer a problem this generation. All three systems have cheap media, discs. The only two things remaining that will be the deciding factors are games and price.

Whoever has the best combination of price and software for the longest period of time will win.

Right now none of them have this. The Wii is cheap....but it does not yet have the line-up, and the other big problem is it's using an interesting controller to make it compete with the other true next-gen systems. Otherwise it wouldn't even be mentioned. The PS3? It has neither at the moment, but it STILL has the potential for having the best software, and Sony has the power to make it affordable. Whether this happens at the right time, remains to be seen, but as long as it has this potential, it has the power to come back and beat everyone. And the 360? Well it needs more Japanese support, but it's currently best in position to get to that magic software + price point before the others and stay there.


I'll qoute it again for those that missed it or don't care to read all my crap:

Whoever has the best combination of price and software for the longest period of time will win.

That was, is, and will be the ONLY true constant in determining the winner. Media Create sales Jan 8-14....will have no bearing on the outcome.

Yep. This guy is correct.

The Wii riding a wave of success for a few months is not even worth mentioning in the long, long 5 to 10 years of a consoles life. As history shows us, initial sales mean nothing. Just look at the DS. What matters is the games. People go where the games are, as long as the price is right.

Nintendo have got the ball rolling. The thing is they need to keep it rolling. I don't believe devs will fully commit to a Nintendo system until they've seen it go well for a year or so. They've been burned too many times.

 

[soundwave05]

And oh yeah, told you guys not to get too excited about the 360 sales. 15-16k average/week was never going to happen.

The Wii already has it's killer app in Japan -- Wii Sports. That's going to sell for a long, long time. Then they'll bring out Wii Fitness, Big Brain Academy, and more traditional stuff like Mario Galaxy and Fire Emblem.

I don't really believe overall library is actually what drives a console. The DS-PSP library in terms of quality overall isn't that different ... the DS though has gotten more killer apps that have really helped drive home Nintendo's differing philosophy and gone on to become phenomenons. The PSP has not, even though it does have some pretty good games.