I have been thinking this lately.
Some guys, trying to put Sony in a better light, make comments about how the PS2 wasn't instantly selling well even after its 7th or so month in japanese shelves. I'd like to post the difference of circumstances:
On the PS2
.- PS2 launched before other consoles of the same gen, it had the last-gen maret share pie all for itself for a lot of time, more than a year I think.
.- PS2 managed to do the perfect transition from PS1 to PS2. PS1 software was still flooding the charts while the ps2 was gaining momemtum little by little.
.- PS2 initial price wasn't all that bad. After all, it offered DVD playback. Which was a HUGE step up from VHS cassettes.
in contrast with
.- PS3 launches side by side with its extremely hungry and strongest competitor, nintendo which happens to launch with killer titles left and right, Zelda for hardcore, Wario, Play and sports for the new audience.
.- PS2 software, outside of the occasional Yakuza 2, is buried in the past. People care for PS2 software as much as for PSP software. The transition between PS2 - PS3 has terribly flopped.
.- Blue-ray? it just works if you have a $3000 HD tv.....:rolleyes
So no, the PS3 is in for the rape of its life.
They took nintendo's death on the home console front for granted.
They took japan's PS loyalty for granted.
and the problem is, this is a time constrained console war. If the bigger companies haven't announced HUGE support to any of the systems is because they are waiting for the results of the initial battle, mainly what's the leading brand and then place the bulk of the support there.
how much time does PS3 has to make publishers believe it still contends for the next-gen leading platform? The wii is getting ahead too fast. If this continues throughout 2007, FF13 in 2008 will be too late. Even MGS4 in christmas 2007 will be too late if Wii is ahead by 4 or 5 millions.
PS3 is in trouble.