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[JoshuaJSlone]

Yeah, 200k max.

Ehh. The only one that has done worse than that is the Wii version of the clearly-DS-aimed Echoes of Time.

Well, I'm still trying to figure out what the game has going for it. It's not like the Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles brand actually means anything in terms of sales anymore.

The main thing it's got going for it (besides the FF name, even if the CC name doesn't mean much) is it seems to have significant production values.

I think PS3 will move at least 225k systems the week FF13 comes out.

I'm not making a guess at this time, but that would be about 2.5 times its current best week.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I think PS3 will move at least 225k systems the week FF13 comes out. Should see a prolonged bump which results on at least another 400k systems sold in relatively short order.

Can I just note that not only would this be an enormous bump, it'd be the best single week of PS3 sales ever by 200%. The record is launch week, in the mid-80k range, and the best non-launch week was 77k.

That's not saying you're right or you're wrong, but that's the magnitude of a bump you're predicting.

 

[Vinci]

Ehh. The only one that has done worse than that is the Wii version of the clearly-DS-aimed Echoes of Time.

I don't see it doing enormous business in Japan, though personally I'd be shocked if it reached 150k in the country.

 

[jrricky]

OMG at the PS3 predictions in this bitch!:lol

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I don't see it doing enormous business in Japan, though personally I'd be shocked if it reached 150k in the country.

Considering even Chocobo's Dungeon on Wii reached 100K, 150K for a much bigger production seems like a low bar.

 

[InsaneZero]

I think PS3 will move at least 225k systems the week FF13 comes out. Should see a prolonged bump which results on at least another 400k systems sold in relatively short order.

225k?! If the PS3's usual sales are like a trickle of water, what you're predicting is a flash flood that could wipe out a small town. Final Fantasy is a system seller to be sure, but not to that magnitude. 150k first week is the max that I'm predicting.

400k in a short period of time in this moment of time is lunacy.

 

[schuelma]

I think it is possible, given that sales spiked to 77K based on the demo alone. Given that the game will most likely be released in the holiday period anyways, I think its somewhat feasible.

 

[Vinci]

I think it is possible, given that sales spiked to 77K based on the demo alone. Given that the game will most likely be released in the holiday period anyways, I think its somewhat feasible.

Was it based on the demo or Advent Children releasing? That's what I've always questioned.

 

[cvxfreak]

Talking on IRC, and we're thinking that maybe the MC-Famistu discrepancy may be due to bundled MH3 Wii hardware.

Unlikely. Media Create always puts 同梱版含む in parenthesis.

 

[thestopsign]

I think it is possible, given that sales spiked to 77K based on the demo alone. Given that the game will most likely be released in the holiday period anyways, I think its somewhat feasible.

That's 77k less people who will buy a PS3 on launch day.

 

[charlequin]

Why are we suddenly attributing magical bump-causing powers to FF13 far in excess of any other game?

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Why are we suddenly attributing magical bump-causing powers to FF13 far in excess of any other game?

It's just another way of saying "wait for..."

 

[schuelma]

Why are we suddenly attributing magical bump-causing powers to FF13 far in excess of any other game?

Maybe I'm giving more credence to the demo bump than it deserves?

 

[Vinci]

Why are we suddenly attributing magical bump-causing powers to FF13 far in excess of any other game?

Because it's pretty.

 

[test_account]

Doesnt the phrase "wait for" mostly means when (insert game(s) title here) will change things in the long run for a gaming system? If so, have anyone here in this recent discussion said that Final Fantasy 13 will change things for the PS3 in the long run? I only see that people made some predictions on how big the PS3 hardware sales bump would be when FFXIII gets released. I admit that i havnt read all the posts here too closely though, so i might have missed a few posts. Or is "wait for" used for games that might most likely cause short time harwarde bumps too? Serious question, i am just wondering

EDIT: I added some text.

 

[Michan]

I think someone said Wii > 100k.

Guess I won't be paying a visit to the hat store after all!

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Doesnt the phrase "wait for" mostly means when (insert game(s) title here) will change things in the long run for a gaming system? If so, have anyone here in this recent discussion said that Final Fantasy 13 will change things for the PS3 in the long run? I only see that people made some predictions on how big the PS3 hardware sales bump would be when FFXIII gets released. I admit that i havnt read all the posts here too closely though, so i might have missed a few posts. Or is "wait for" used for games that might most likely cause short time harwarde bumps too? Serious question, i am just wondering

EDIT: I added some text.

What i'm (jokingly) asserting is that the inflated FF13 bumps are just another way of saying that the PS3 will turn a corner after it launches.

In reality, I think people just have too much faith in Final Fantasy.

 

[Sadist]

Considering even Chocobo's Dungeon on Wii reached 100K, 150K for a much bigger production seems like a low bar.

Really? I kind of liked Chocobo's Dungeon, but never expected to sell anything even in Japan. (It even was released at a budgetprice) Hmm, I think the lowest bar for Crystal Bearers would be 300k?

 

[Chris1964]

I see bttb already posted a comparison between Dragon Quest VII, Dragon Quest VIII and Dragon Quest IX, but since some people still doubt that Dragon Quest IX will surpass Dragon Quest VII I will post a more detailed comparison between them, with every available tracked week there is. I will update the chart every week so that there isn't the question in every week's thread about how Dragon Quest IX holds in sales. Famitsu data:

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|  |  Dragon Quest VII | Dragon Quest VIII |  Dragon Quest IX  |       difference     |
|--|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|----------|-----------|
| #|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |DQIX-DQVII|DQIX-DQVIII|
|--|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|----------|-----------|
| 1|1.862.065|1.862.065|2.236.881|2.236.881|2.343.440|2.343.440|   481.375|    106.559|
| 2|1.072.286|2.934.351|  559.524|2.796.405|  602.856|2.946.296|    11.945|    149.891|
| 3|  329.317|3.263.668|  200.033|2.996.438|  271.206|3.217.502|   -46.166|    221.064|
| 4|  154.797|3.418.465|  116.731|3.113.169|  172.728|3.390.230|   -28.235|    277.061|
| 5|   83.918|3.502.383|  118.119|3.231.288|         |         |          |           |
| 6|   64.351|3.566.734|   95.879|3.327.167|         |         |          |           |
| 7|   43.717|3.610.451|   56.945|3.384.112|         |         |          |           |
| 8|   33.852|3.644.302|   22.175|3.406.287|         |         |          |           |
| 9|   21.429|3.665.731|   11.611|3.417.898|         |         |          |           |
|10|   18.191|3.683.923|   11.293|3.429.191|         |         |          |           |
|11|   18.360|3.702.283|    9.892|3.439.083|         |         |          |           |
|12|   13.941|3.716.224|    9.389|3.448.472|         |         |          |           |
|13|   10.541|3.726.765|    7.403|3.455.875|         |         |          |           |
|14|    8.841|3.735.606|    6.698|3.462.573|         |         |          |           |
|15|    9.147|3.744.754|    6.490|3.469.063|         |         |          |           |
|16|    8.903|3.753.657|    5.103|3.474.166|         |         |          |           |
|17|        -|        -|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|18|        -|        -|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|19|   10.769|3.784.682|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|20|   15.632|3.800.315|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|21|    5.634|3.805.949|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|22|    5.643|3.811.591|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|23|    6.190|3.817.781|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|24|    4.184|3.821.965|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|25|    4.406|3.826.371|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|26|    5.227|3.831.598|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|27|    3.848|3.835.446|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|28|    5.083|3.840.529|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|29|    4.859|3.845.388|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|--|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|----------|-----------|
| -|   LTD   |3.893.293|   LTD   |3.538.860|   LTD   |3.390.230|  -503.063|   -148.630|
| -|shipments|4.150.000|shipments|3.700.000|shipments|3.500.000|  -650.000|   -200.000|
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have added total shipments so that there is no doubt DQ IX will surpass even them.

Dragon Quest Series: Total Shipment Figures (Japan)
1986.05.27 [FC] Dragon Quest (1.50M)
1987.01.26 [FC] Dragon Quest II (2.40M)
1988.02.10 [FC] Dragon Quest III (3.80M)
1990.02.11 [FC] Dragon Quest IV (3.00M)
1992.09.27 [SFC] Dragon Quest V (2.80M)
1995.12.09 [SFC] Dragon Quest VI (3.20M)
2000.08.26 [PS] Dragon Quest VII (4.15M)
2004.11.27 [PS2] Dragon Quest VIII (3.70M)
2009.07.11 [NDS] Dragon Quest IX (?)

http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/entry-10299190849.html

For one more time I say that my prediction is DQ IX>4.5M

 

[InsaneZero]

What i'm (jokingly) asserting is that the inflated FF13 bumps are just another way of saying that the PS3 will turn a corner after it launches.

In reality, I think people just have too much faith in Final Fantasy.

You just need to click your heels and

And if that fails, wait for FFXIV!

 

[laserbeam]

Haven't overall Main game FF sales been on the decline since like FF8? I expect it to reverse with the 360 now getting 13 because people who wont even like the game will be compelled to buy it because its cool.

 

[test_account]

What i'm (jokingly) asserting is that the inflated FF13 bumps are just another way of saying that the PS3 will turn a corner after it launches.

In reality, I think people just have too much faith in Final Fantasy.

With "turn a corner", does that mean that things will change in the longer run? (english isnt my first language, sorry). But if this it what it means, then i understand what you mean. Personally i dont think that people necessarily thinks that things will change that much in the long run for the PS3 even if they predict/think that FFXIII will bump the PS3 hardware sales pretty much the weeks around when FFXIII is being released. But maybe someone thinks that FFXIII will change things in the long run. It is a pretty big release, so who knows what will happend

Speaking about big titled games that will change things for a gaming system in the long run. Eventhough that some big games have proven to not do so much for the hardware sales in the long run (for example like MGS4 for the PS3 and some of the RPGs for the Xbox 360), i think that it is still relatively common to predict that a certaint game (or games) will do something for a gaming system.

The most recent example for a big titled that are expected to change things in the long run is probably Monster Hunter 3. If i remember correctly, some people thinks that it would cause a temporary Wii hardware sales bump, while others thinks that it will cause an hardware bump over a longer of period of time, and that developers will start to develope more big titled games for the Wii. Monster Hunter 3 is a big titled game, which have proven so far to sell pretty good, so who knows what will happend

You just need to click your heels and
http://www.neogaf.com/images/neogaf1.gif

And if that fails, wait for FFXIV!

I guess that you are mostly joking when you say "wait for FFXIV!"? But to answer seriously, does anyone expected FFXIV to do much for the PS3 (or for the PC as Vinci mentioned below me here) no matter how FFXIII ends up selling? FFXIV is afterall more like a MMORPG, which i dont think is really that popular in Japan, at least compared to more classical styled Final Fantasy games like FFXIII is, or am i wrong now?

EDIT: I added some text.

 

[Vinci]

And if that fails, wait for FFXIV!

Oh yeah, that will do wonders for the PC's MMO community.

 

[Khrno]

And if that fails, wait for FFXIV!

You're not very familiar with this title right?

I bet most people in Japan will rather get a powerful PC/laptop than a PS3 for it. I'm mainly talking about the old FFXI user-base which might migrate to XIV, or just give it a go.

In the end XIV won't move any PS3 at all, and I wonder if it will sell more than 100k of the original SKU on PS3. Most of that people will most likely get the (probably) superior version on PC anyway.

And if there is any casual players that might be interested on playing, they will already have a PS3 since they will/would have bought one for XIII sometime in these 2-3 years.

 

[InsaneZero]

You're not very familiar with this title right?

I bet most people in Japan will rather get a powerful PC/laptop than a PS3 for it. I'm mainly talking about the old FFXI user-base which might migrate to XIV, or just give it a go.

In the end XIV won't move any PS3 at all, and I wonder if it will sell more than 100k of the original SKU on PS3. Most of that people will most likely get the (probably) superior version on PC anyway.

And if there is any casual players that might be interested on playing, they will already have a PS3 since they will/would have bought one for XIII sometime in these 2-3 years.

Sarcasm is a lost art.

In any case, system sellers only create some momentum, but on its own never a reversal of fortune. Sustained momentum is the real issue. Of course, this should be obvious for most people.

 

[slaughterking]

I see bttb already posted a comparison between Dragon Quest VII, Dragon Quest VIII and Dragon Quest IX, but since some people still doubt that Dragon Quest IX will surpass Dragon Quest VII I will post a more detailed comparison between them, with every available tracked week there is. I will update the chart every week so that there isn't the question in every week's thread about how Dragon Quest IX holds in sales. Famitsu data:

 DQ sales stuff

I have added total shipments so that there is no doubt DQ IX will surpass even them. For DQ IX I assume shipped=sold, since we don't know the shipments of it.



For one more time I say that my prediction is DQ IX>4.5M

Damn, I love it when people have too much time on their hands and come up with stuff like this. Great work!

 

[Khrno]

Sarcasm is a lost art.

In any case, system sellers only create some momentum, but on its own never a reversal of fortune. Sustained momentum is the real issue. Of course, this should be obvious for most people.

I know you were being sarcastic, but I didn't know if you knew about XIV or not, and just decided to throw my 2 cents about it in the end

 

[Vinci]

Sarcasm is a lost art.

You must admit though... You're not AniHawk.

 

[InsaneZero]

You must admit though... You're not AniHawk.

I know I'll never be able to catch up to such a great man. I must continue my daily training.

 

[Vinci]

I know I'll never be able to catch up to such a great man. I must continue my daily training.

No. I don't mean that your talent for sarcasm is somehow lacking, that you need to practice or anything. You're just literally not him.

 

[InsaneZero]

No. I don't mean that your talent for sarcasm is somehow lacking, that you need to practice or anything. You're just literally not him.

Way to crush a junior's aspirations. Anyway, since we're getting off topic...

When does the console sales usually come out for Media-Create? I thought it came out usually around this time.

 

[thestopsign]

Way to crush a junior's aspirations. Anyway, since we're getting off topic...

When does the console sales usually come out for Media-Create? I thought it came out usually around this time.

Tonight around 8pm (EST).

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

With "turn a corner", does that mean that things will change in the longer run? (english isnt my first language, sorry). But if this it what it means, then i understand what you mean. Personally i dont think that people necessarily thinks that things will change that much in the long run for the PS3 even if they predict/think that FFXIII will bump the PS3 hardware sales pretty much the weeks around when FFXIII is being released. But maybe someone thinks that FFXIII will change things in the long run. It is a pretty big release, so who knows what will happend

Yeah, that's what it means in a nutshell.

As for my opinion on FFXIII, I think the PS3 will do more to hurt it than it will do to help the PS3. It'll no doubt see a noteworthy bump though. Even with MH3, the only thing I think it's proven is that big budget "core" action games can sell on the Wii in Japan, though it largely doesn't matter because:

1. I don't think Wii had any problem attracting Japanese big budget games in the first place

2. The sheer amount of viable titles that qualify have been thinned out by the Wii's biggest true competitors, The DS and PSP, and as for the PSP, MH3 was the biggest coup the Wii could possibly have made against it.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Why are we suddenly attributing magical bump-causing powers to FF13 far in excess of any other game?

Hmm. On the one hand, I don't think there's much precedent for what happens when such a major series lands on a console with such little earlier success. Really I guess the closest would be something like Mario Kart on N64/GCN, considering what that series has done elsewhere? On the other hand, since XIII has taken its sweet time arriving PS3 will have nearly the userbase PS2 did when X arrived, so there might not be a much bigger bump anyway. On the third hand, if PS2's FFX bump had happened during a holiday time when sales were larger anyway, maybe it would've been a bit bigger.

1. I don't think Wii had any problem attracting Japanese big budget games in the first place

They must be the strong, silent type.

 

[GameplayWhore]

Really? I kind of liked Chocobo's Dungeon, but never expected to sell anything even in Japan. (It even was released at a budgetprice) Hmm, I think the lowest bar for Crystal Bearers would be 300k?

Didn't the first Crystal Chronicles rub a lot of FF fans the wrong way, on account of how different it was from a regular Final Fantasy game? I remember grumblings about its difficulty and the focus on multiplayer, but that could just be meanderings from an ex and not a general opinion of gamers out that.

The first one broke 300k (~355k on garaph), but it had the benefit of being an all new type of Final Fantasy game and the only game carrying that brand on the GameCube (that I'm aware of). Right now, the Wii has already been given three Final Fantasy derivatives. Two of those were Crystal Chronicles games, but they were either poorly received (EoT) or substantially different from a standard jrpg (MLaaK), so interest in the name "Crystal Chronicles" could certainly be diluted at this point.

I guess it'll depend on riding the wake of the impending main-series game, and they'll have to market it clearly enough as being a full-storied game and neither a social game like the first FFCC nor a tiny spinoff.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

They must be the strong, silent type.

I was waiting for this. But to be honest, I haven't really seen much in the way of big budget announcements for any of the big 3 out of Japan (after all of the guaranteed PS3 developed games, of course). Correct me if i'm wrong, but have there been a handful of AAA games announced for PS360 since all 3 got the ball rolling in Japan?

 

[thestopsign]

Looking at the sales of previous Samurai Warriors games, what are the expectations for the Wii iteration? I see that the first one sold about a million and the second around 550k. Are we going to see another decline or will it stay about the same as the second game?

 

[Busaiku]

I have added total shipments so that there is no doubt DQ IX will surpass even them. For DQ IX I assume shipped=sold, since we don't know the shipments of it.

The shipment figure is actually 3.5 million so far.

 

[schuelma]

Looking at the sales of previous Samurai Warriors games, what are the expectations for the Wii iteration? I see that the first one sold about a million and the second around 550k. Are we going to see another decline or will it stay about the same as the second game?

I would guess that there would be another decline.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Didn't the first Crystal Chronicles rub a lot of FF fans the wrong way, on account of how different it was from a regular Final Fantasy game? I remember grumblings about its difficulty and the focus on multiplayer, but that could just be meanderings from an ex and not a general opinion of gamers out that.

I'm a guy who doesn't get enough chance for decent multiplayer, so I've enjoyed the CC series most when straying from its roots. Kinda too bad for it, though; with Monster Hunter the hot thing and now trying to make co-op action adventuring popular on Wii, it seems one going for the original idea (that isn't a DS port) could be well-received.

Looking at the sales of previous Samurai Warriors games, what are the expectations for the Wii iteration? I see that the first one sold about a million and the second around 550k. Are we going to see another decline or will it stay about the same as the second game?

Decline, definitely. The whole Musou/Warriors thing isn't as big as it was at its PS2 peak, plus now rather than having a PS2-centered fanbase plenty of people have already been getting their fix on PS3, X360, PSP, or even still PS2.

 

[schuelma]

Josh- Any other examples of such a big disparity between MC and Famitsu with a game? 63K is quite the gap..

 

[Michan]

They must be the strong, silent type.

you're so silly

Spoiler

and cute!

 

[vicissitudes]

Why are we already discussing FFXIII sales during MH3 week?:lol

Anyway, I agree with another poster that 150k is probably a realistic ceiling for PS3 sales during FFXIII week. What I think would be a smart move is to release slim at around 29800 yen in September, around the release of Tales of Vesperia, then release GT5 in November and sell 300-500k, then release FXIII in the middle of December. Otherwise it'll have a really hard time getting to 2 million.

Also, I believe FFIX sold less than FFVIII, but FFX sold more than FFIX, and then declined with FFXII. Every time a franchise moves to a new-gen hardware (assuming equal success of hardware), it gets a bump.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Josh- Any other examples of such a big disparity between MC and Famitsu with a game? 63K is quite the gap..

If only I had MC data up at Garaph it would be a fun thing to run a query on, but it always seems to be on the back burner so I've got nothing.

 

[schuelma]

If only I had MC data up at Garaph it would be a fun thing to run a query on, but it always seems to be on the back burner so I've got nothing.

Gotcha. I looked at a few games- Yakuza 3, RE5, DQ IX and didn't find anything close.

 

[Xeke]

Gotcha. I looked at a few games- Yakuza 3, RE5, DQ IX and didn't find anything close.

What about the other Monster Hunter games?

 

[schuelma]

What about the other Monster Hunter games?

Hmm..looking at MHP2G, it looks like Famitsu had it at 823K and MC had it at 880K.

 

[ccbfan]

LOL at KOF XII.

I guess thats what happens when you sent out a beta like version of a game lacking tons of features, incomplete characters and terrible net code. Especially after some great fighters like SF4, BB and Tekken 6 soon to come.

MH3 did pretty much exactly as I expected, 600K first week (which it would have reached if it was a 4 day week)/1.2-1.5 mil LTD.

 

[Road]

Why are we already discussing FFXIII sales during MH3 week?:lol

Anyway, I agree with another poster that 150k is probably a realistic ceiling for PS3 sales during FFXIII week. What I think would be a smart move is to release slim at around 29800 yen in September, around the release of Tales of Vesperia, then release GT5 in November and sell 300-500k, then release FXIII in the middle of December. Otherwise it'll have a really hard time getting to 2 million.

Also, I believe FFIX sold less than FFVIII, but FFX sold more than FFIX, and then declined with FFXII. Every time a franchise moves to a new-gen hardware (assuming equal success of hardware), it gets a bump.

FFIX first release sold 2.7 million, FFX 2.3.

FFX has a total of 3 million counting Mega etc. hits re-releases, though.

 

[gconsole]

Imagine if PS3 still secure the exclusive to MH3. Sony is such a stupid game company this gen.