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[LINK.AGE76]

From the looks of it, the PS3 will sell more than the Wii next year. Nintendo has many studios that we don't know what they're making. To me it seems Nintendo might be releasing a revision for the Wii sometime next year. Whether its a new design with a hard drive for less cost or WiiHD, I think it will happen. Nintendo's many studios may be working on games for WiiHD, it's been so long since we heard about most of them. If not for WiiHD, many of the studios are having problems making games.

 

[sphinx]

It's probably NSMB and not FFXIII that's doing all the damage.

I think both games are doing their part to turn ToG into the sales flop we are seeing.

Just like in the west where many publishers decided to leave Q4 to the MW2/NSMB combo, Japanese publishers would have been wise also to scatter their bigger games through less crowded quarters.

this month is a one way highway starting from NSMB heading into FFXIII, with just enough budget and time to get quirky no-time-consuming stuff like wii fit plus down the road and maybe some DS or PSP game to play while taking a shit or on the train.

There is no place for another full flegded stellar RPG at this time, regardless of console, quality, price or thematic.

that's my theory at least.

 

[Chris1964]

I was looking at 2009 Q1 Wii releases. It needed very big try from Nintendo to have a worse 2010 Q1, but they managed to do it.

2009 Q1
02 . [WII] New Play Control! Mario Power Tennis (Nintendo) - 55.391 / 55.391 15/01/09
xx . [WII] Castlevania: Judgment (Konami) - 3.700 / 3.700 15/01/09
05 . [WII] Fragile: Farewell Ruins of the Moon (Namco Bandai) - 22.640 / 22.640 22/01/09
08 . [WII] Suzumiya Haruhi no Gekidou (Kadokawa Shoten) - 19.426 / 19.426 22/01/09
06 . [WII] Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Echoes of Time (Square Enix) - 22.876 / 22.876 29/01/09
16 . [WII] Another Code: R - A Journey into Lost Memories (Nintendo) - 10.070 / 10.070 05/02/09
18 . [WII] Dead Rising: Chop Till You Drop (Capcom) - 9.200 / 9.200 19/02/09
xx . [WII] New Play Control! Metroid Prime (Nintendo) - 5.200 / 5.200 19/02/09
04 . [WII] One Piece: Unlimited Cruise 2 - Awakening of the Hero (Namco Bandai) - 47.166 / 47.166 26/02/09
xx . [WII] High School Musical 3: Senior Year Dance! (Disney Interactive) - 1.200 / 1.200 26/02/09
xx . [WII] Relaxuma: Minna de Goyururi Seikatsu (MTO) - 1.700 / 1.700 05/03/09
06 . [WII] New Play Control! Pikmin 2 (Nintendo) - 28.256 / 28.256 12/03/09
xx . [WII] Sonic and the Black Knight (Sega) - 4.100 / 4.100 12/03/09
xx . [WII] Phantom Brave: We Meet Again (Nippon Ichi Software) - 2.300 / 2.300 12/03/09
xx . [WII] We Cheer (Namco Bandai) - 2.000 / 2.000 12/03/09
11 . [WII] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball Next (Konami) - 18.544 / 18.544 19/03/09
xx . [WII] Monopoly (Electronic Arts Victor) - 500 / 500 19/03/09
20 . [WII] Suzumiya Haruhi no Heiretsu (Sega) - 10.330 / 10.330 26/03/09
xx . [WII] Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D's Wheelie Breakers (Konami) - 7.700 / 7.700 26/03/09
xx . [WII] 007: Quantum of Solace (Square Enix) - 1.100 / 1.100 26/03/09

2010 Q1
xx . [WII] Resident Evil: The Darkside Chronicles (Capcom) - / 14/01/10
xx . [WII] Tatsunoko Vs. Capcom: Ultimate All-Stars (Capcom) - / 28/01/10
xx . [WII] Zangeki no Reginkleiv (Nintendo) - / 11/02/10
xx . [WII] Madworld (Sega) - / 10/02/10

 

[markatisu]

From the looks of it, the PS3 will sell more than the Wii next year. Nintendo has many studios that we don't know what they're making. To me it seems Nintendo might be releasing a revision for the Wii sometime next year. Whether its a new design with a hard drive for less cost or WiiHD, I think it will happen. Nintendo's many studios may be working on games for WiiHD, it's been so long since we heard about most of them. If not for WiiHD, many of the studios are having problems making games.

We did not know about NSMB Wii until June of this past year and look what happened.

Outside GT5 what is down the pipe for the PS3, they could both go back to sucking up the mid tier of the chart in a month or two

 

[LINK.AGE76]

We did not know about NSMB Wii until June of this past year and look what happened.

Outside GT5 what is down the pipe for the PS3, they could both go back to sucking up the mid tier of the chart in a month or two

Isn't Yakuza 4 coming out in March? I think EOE from Tri Ace will sell well.

 

[gerg]

release the games they are working on is probably a good idea. They have enough developers I think.

The thing is, we don't know what they're working on. We also don't know how well NSMB Wii will carry the Wii into the next year, and I imagine Ninendo will try and consider that into their release schedule.

Overall it has been, but to have nothing lined up for Q1 two years in a row doesn't strike me as a very good idea.

Why are we talking about this as a foregone conclusion?

Isn't Yakuza 4 coming out in March? I think EOE from Tri Ace will sell well.

The PS3 will most likely have great software sales. It's a question of whether or not its releases will push its hardware sales, however.

 

[Sadist]

It looks like Nintendo is starting to believe the industry when looking at that release list. They really hate Japan.

Sad state man.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

The PS3 will most likely have great software sales. It's a question of whether or not its releases will push its hardware sales, however.

They can bundle the system with Yakuza and GT5 and get a hardware boost.

 

[Chris1964]

PS3 2010 Q1
xx . [PS3] James Cameron's Avatar: The Game (Ubisoft) - / 07/01/10
xx . [PS3] Batman: Arkham Asylum (Square Enix) - / 14/01/10
xx . [PS3] Operation Flashpoint: Dragon Rising (Codemasters) - / 14/01/10
xx . [PS3] Bioshock (Playstation 3 the Best) (Spike) - / 14/01/10
xx . [PS3] End of Eternity (Sega) - / 28/01/10
xx . [PS3] Ar tonelico III: Sekai Shuuen no Hikigane wa Shoujo no Uta ga Hajiku (Namco Bandai) - / 28/01/10
xx . [PS3] MAG: Massive Action Game (SCE) - / 28/01/10
xx . [PS3] Final Night Round 4 (Electronic Arts Victor) - / 28/01/10
xx . [PS3] Eat Lead: The Return of Matt Hazard (D3 Publisher) - / 28/01/10
xx . [PS3] Last Rebellion (Nippon Ichi Software) - / 28/01/10
xx . [PS3] Star Ocean: The Last Hope - International (Square Enix) - / 04/02/10
xx . [PS3] Sacred 2 (Spike) - / 10/02/10
xx . [PS3] Resident Evil 5: Alternative Edition (Capcom) - / 18/02/10
xx . [PS3] Heavy Rain (SCE) - / 18/02/10
xx . [PS3] No More Heroes: Heroes' Paradise (Marvelous Entertainment) - / 25/02/10
xx . [PS3] Yakuza 4 (Sega) - / 18/03/10

GT5 and Hokuto Musou are also scheduled for Q1.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

Is Square doing a bundle for SO4, that could also hit big with hardware.

 

[schuelma]

Why are we talking about this as a foregone conclusion?
.

I guess its possible Nintendo has something big for March, but I'd say it is very very unlikely. Which means for the 2nd year in a row they had nothing for Q1.

 

[Opiate]

I think expecting a major push from Nintendo in every quarter is a bit much. They've only got so many gazillion sellers to put up.

Other system's patch the holes in the first party timetable with third party games, but Nintendo doesn't have that luxury. I think that is the problem. And it's a problem that would have no easy, highly solvable solution -- you can't hire scores of developers just to patch a hole in support, and they seem perennially incapable of getting third parties to come on board.

I expect Nintendo will always have gaping holes in their release schedule like this, unless and until third parties become a mainstay. Which is my way of saying: I'm not surprised at all that Q1 2010 looks like Q1 2009, because the cause of the problem we saw in 2009 -- poor third party support -- apparently isn't solvable. There's nothing Nintendo can do about it, in my opinion, so we'll keep seeing huge holes like this. Q1 2010 won't be the last.

 

[gerg]

I guess its possible Nintendo has something big for March, but I'd say it is very very unlikely. Which means for the 2nd year in a row they had nothing for Q1.

Out of curiousity, how long before NSMB Wii's release was its release date announced?

 

[Linkhero1]

So I guess this is it for the Famitsu numbers we have for Dec. 7 to 13:

01. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 464.824 / 1.401.558
02. [WII] Tales of Graces (Bandai Namco Games) - 143.000 / NEW
03. [PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square Enix) - 117.000 / NEW
04. [NDS] Tomodachi Collection (Nintendo) - 97.000 / 1.877.000
05. [PSP] Naruto: Shippuuden Narutimate Accelerator 3 (Bandai Namco Games) - 71.000 / NEW
06. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 66.000 / 1.060.000
07. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (Nintendo) -
08. [PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) - 63.000 / 348.000
09. [360] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square Enix) - 61.000 / NEW
10. [WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu no Daibouken (Nintendo) - 55.000 / 112.000

xx. [PSP] Kidou Senshi Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Bandai Namco Games) - 49.000 / 287.000
xx. [WII] Sengoku Musou 3 (Koei) - 34.000 / 161.000
xx. [NDS] Luminous Arc 3: Eyes (Marvelous Entertainment) - 22.000 / NEW
xx. [NDS] Kyoukugen Dasshutsu 9 Jikan 9 nin 9 no Tobira (Spike) - 17.000 / NEW
xx. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - 15.000 / 5.602.000
xx. [PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 13.000 / 60.000
xx. [PSP] Bleach: Soul Carnival 2 (SCE) - 11.000 / NEW
xx. [WII] Winning Eleven Playmaker 2010 (Konami) - 9.300 / NEW
xx. [PSP] R-Type Tactics II: Operation Bitter Chocolate (Irem) - 3.700 / NEW
xx. [NDS] Again: FBI Chou-Shinri Shousakan (Tecmo) - 1.000 / NEW

Hardware:
									
Wii	142.000
PS3	 76.000
360	 10.000+
DSi	 70.000
DSiLL	 60.000
DSL	 10.000
PSP	 71.000
PSPgo	  3.300

Holy shit, My ps3 prediction should be reversed with my Wii prediction

Anyways Mario is a beast, I'm ok with Graces numbers, and I thought Naruto on PSP would do better.

Edit: Does anyone have percentage of how much of the initial shipment sold for Grace and Naruto PSP?

 

[Chris1964]

I'm not surprised at all that Q1 2010 looks like Q1 2009, because the problem we saw in 2009 -- poor third party support -- apparently isn't solvable. There's nothing Nintendo can do about it, imo.

Nintendo can do many things to improve third party and, most important, first party output on Wii. There are many games even from October 2008 conference that have disappeared since then. These games could fill many gaps.

 

[schuelma]

Out of curiousity, how long before NSMB Wii's release was its release date announced?

I think a month and a half, but I think Japan was last to get a date.

Again, I guess its possible Mario Galaxy is hitting in March but I think we would have heard something by then. Could be April though.

 

[gerg]

There are many games even from October 2008 conference that have disappeared since then. These games could fill many gaps.

Perhaps.

But stating surprise at Nintendo's secrecy is like stating surprise at the fact that the sky is blue.

I think a month and a half, but I think Japan was last to get a date.

Again, I guess its possible Mario Galaxy is hitting in March but I think we would have heard something by then. Could be April though.

So by Nintendo's own standards there's still plenty of time for them to release Mario Galaxy 2 in March.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

I think many third parties will give/gave up on the Wii. PS3 sales are so much better ever since the Slim launched. I don't see any huge incentives on the Wii for 3rd parties to make games on it anymore. 3rd party games have horrible sales on the Wii and it's the opposite on the PS3. Nintendo can change that with moneyhatting, but Nintendo loves their money alot.

 

[schuelma]

I think many third parties will give/gave up on the Wii. PS3 sales are so much better ever since the Slim launched. I don't see any huge incentives on the Wii for 3rd parties to make games on it anymore. 3rd party games have horrible sales on the Wii and it's the opposite on the PS3. Nintendo can change that with moneyhatting, but Nintendo loves their money alot.

While I don't disagree that right now third party output on Wii looks horrible, I really doubt it has anything to do with the Slim or any results from the last 3 or 4 months.

 

[Chris1964]

So by Nintendo's own standards there's still plenty of time for them to release Mario Galaxy 2 in March.

You know this won't happen. If they release it in March they have an empty schedule for the rest of the year. Pikmin 3 is disappeared, Metroid: Other M the same and Zelda is a December 2010 release at best. March release means an empty Golden week (unless Monster Hunter 3 G is scheduled for then).

 

[Opiate]

Nintendo can do many things to improve third party and, most important, first party output on Wii. There are many games even from October 2008 conference that have disappeared since then. These games could fill many gaps.

Having titles go in and out of production, get canceled or reworked, etc. is simply a fact of life in any creative medium. It happens in movies and literature. EA suffers from it, as has been famously reported. Activision jetissoned a huge list of games when it merged with Blizzard.

Essentially what you're saying is, "Nintendo's output would be better if they never canceled any projects and everything came out on time." I wouldn't dispute that assertion, but I'd argue it's highly unrealistic. In the real world, Nintendo seems to be a reasonably efficient developer of software.

Third party relations are very hard to gauge, because we're on the outside looking in. WHat I would say is that at this point, the cost of bringing third parties on board would be unreasonably expensive.

 

[gerg]

You know this won't happen. If they release it in March they have an empty schedule for the rest of the year. Pikmin 3 is disappeared, Metroid: Other M the same and Zelda is a December 2010 release at best. March release means an empty Golden week (unless Monster Hunter 3 G is scheduled for then).

I admit that I forgot about the positioning of a game for Golden Week, but my point stands: drawing conclusions on the incomplete release list of a company known for its secrecy and for its tendency to announce games very soon to their release is a fruitless and generally pointless task.

 

[jay]

I admit that I forgot about the positioning of a game for Golden Week, but my point stands: drawing conclusions on the incomplete release list of a company known for its secrecy and for its tendency to announce games very soon to their release is a fruitless and generally pointless task.

What about drawing conclusions about release schedules for companies known for leaving huge holes in release schedules?

 

[Chris1964]

What I would say is that at this point, the cost of bringing third parties on board would be unreasonably expensive.

What I would say is that Nintendo should do with third parties what it did with Fatal Frame (even though this cooperation failed outside Japan) and Metroid: Other M now.

 

[gerg]

What about drawing conclusions about release schedules for companies known for leaving huge holes in release schedules?

The past may not resemble the future. Sure, it may be likely to, but I just want to draw the distinction between "knowing about nothing" and "not knowing about anything".

 

[schuelma]

I admit that I forgot about the positioning of a game for Golden Week, but my point stands: drawing conclusions on the incomplete release list of a company known for its secrecy and for its tendency to announce games very soon to their release is a fruitless and generally pointless task.

1- Nintendo releases games with little time between announcement and releases but those are typically smaller titles. They aren't going to unveil Pikmin 3 tomorrow and have it come in March. The only candidate is Galaxy

2- I'd say its getting to that time when 3rd party announcements for Q1 will cease pretty soon. Outside of Basara 3 which is also on the PS3, there is literally nothing in the pipeline 3rd party wise after Darkside Chronicles.

 

[Jokeropia]

3rd party games have horrible sales on the Wii and it's the opposite on the PS3.

I think that's stretching it.

 

[jay]

The past may not resemble the future. Sure, it may be likely to, but I just want to draw the distinction between "knowing about nothing" and "not knowing about anything".

So then their past secrecy is irrelevant to the debate, no?

 

[LINK.AGE76]

You know this won't happen. If they release it in March they have an empty schedule for the rest of the year. Pikmin 3 is disappeared, Metroid: Other M the same and Zelda is a December 2010 release at best. March release means an empty Golden week (unless Monster Hunter 3 G is scheduled for then).

What about the possibility of a Paper Mario 3/ Fire Emblem 11 game from Intey released in the Summer? Last Wii game they made was Super Paper Mario I believe, the games they made after that were all handheld or wiiware. If they release a PM or a FE in the Summer, they can certainly release Galaxy 2 Next March. I don't see it happening because Galaxy hasn't been talked about Nintendo since last Summer and I can't see them just releasing it in 3 months without pre hype. I know Mario doesn't need pre hype, but this is Galaxy we're talking about

Edit: There is also the possibility of a new Star Fox, F-zero and Kriby lol) for next Summer.

 

[gerg]

1- Nintendo releases games with little time between announcement and releases but those are typically smaller titles. They aren't going to unveil Pikmin 3 tomorrow and have it come in March. The only candidate is Galaxy

2- I'd say its getting to that time when 3rd party announcements for Q1 will cease pretty soon. Outside of Basara 3 which is also on the PS3, there is literally nothing in the pipeline 3rd party wise after Darkside Chronicles.

Fair enough.

So then their past secrecy is irrelevant to the debate, no?

Touche.

But that wouldn't undermine the distinction I highlighted.

 

[Bebpo]

Wii has Darkside in Jan (which will do a million), Rengleiv in Feb (which will probably sell like 40k) and Basara 3 in March (which could move 100-200k), so it's not alllll bad. Just not good compared to PS3 which also has Basara + a ton of other games.

 

[Chris1964]

Jeez guys Nintendo isn't gonna announce Pikmin 3, Fire Emble or whatever other title tomorrow and say that it will be out next month. We are talking about big budget titles with loyal fanbases that Nintendo cannot afford them to fail.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

Wii has Rengleiv in Feb (which will probably sell like 40k) and Basara 3 in March (which could move 100-200k), so it's not alllll bad. Just not good compared to PS3 which also has Basara + a ton of other games.

I don't think the first Basara hit over 250k for the PS2, also Basara is coming out for PS3 too so chances for the Wii version selling big is slim imo.

 

[Chris1964]

Wii has Darkside in Jan (which will do a million), Rengleiv in Feb (which will probably sell like 40k) and Basara 3 in March (which could move 100-200k), so it's not alllll bad. Just not good compared to PS3 which also has Basara + a ton of other games.

Basara 3 doesn't have a March date.

 

[Opiate]

While I don't disagree that right now third party output on Wii looks horrible, I really doubt it has anything to do with the Slim or any results from the last 3 or 4 months.

This is close to what I was getting at originally. If the Wii's state of affairs wasn't enough to entice third party developers six months ago, it certainly won't be the case now.

I'm not entirely sure what goes in to attracting third parties to a console, but whatever it is, the Wii hasn't succeeded. It obviously isn't a problem with install base, or even attach rate: in Japan, the Wii's attach rate is perfectly fine, better than the PSP, for example.

Which suggests the problem is more systemic, and systemic problems are always long, drawn out affairs. Unless Nintnedo magically begins to bring all third parties on board -- which is, as I said, technically possible but realistically unlikely -- expect more dry spells in the future. Any quarter where Nintendo doesn't release a million selling title is going to be a "dry spell."

 

[jay]

Touche.

But then you can't use a sceptical scenario to support a non-sceptical one.

Is there some law of logic I am unaware of that addresses this? Scientifically speaking I think I can remain skeptical about something as yet unproven and be on solid ground.

You edited your post.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

I think that's stretching it.

Well aside of MH3, which 3rd party game sold great on Wii this year? SW3 is less than SW2 (series was declinging anyway), and the sales for Graces are horrible.

 

[schuelma]

Any quarter where Nintendo doesn't release a million selling title is going to be a "dry spell."

I completely agree with this. While some decent sized 3rd party games would help the lineup in Q1, at this point its clear the only software that is going to sell systems are Nintendo titles.

 

[Bebpo]

Basara 3 doesn't have a March date.

officially. I've seen it rumored around for March recently. Wouldn't be surprising.

 

[gerg]

Is there some law of logic I am unaware of that addresses this? Scientifically speaking I think I can remain skeptical about something as yet unproven and be on solid ground.

Scientific scepticism, I believe, is somewhat different from its philosophical form.

But that's largely irrelevant.

 

[Spiegel]

Wii has Darkside in Jan (which will do a million)

No.

More like 300k at best

 

[Nirolak]

I completely agree with this. While some decent sized 3rd party games would help the lineup in Q1, at this point its clear the only software that is going to sell systems are Nintendo titles.

You would think this would cause Nintendo to open up more development studios, but rather it seems that they're using less of their studios than ever.

That or they're canceling the projects of their studios more than ever.

 

[Bebpo]

No.

More like 300k at best

I thought Umbrella Chronicles did a million? I think both games are absolutely dreadful, but they sell like hotcakes.

 

[schuelma]

I thought Umbrella Chronicles did a million? I think both games are absolutely dreadful, but they sell like hotcakes.

worldwide, not Japan. The first did 270K or so in Japan.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

No.

More like 300k at best

the first one didn't reach 150k I believe, I predict 100k-120k tops.

 

[jeremy1456]

I thought Umbrella Chronicles did a million? I think both games are absolutely dreadful, but they sell like hotcakes.

The million figure was worldwide methinks.

If I remember correctly, the Umbrella Chronicles sold like 250k in Japan.

EDIT: beaten

 

[schuelma]

You would think this would cause Nintendo to open up more development studios, but rather it seems that they're using less of their studios than ever.

That or they're canceling the projects of their studios more than ever.

I don't think they are using less of their studios or anything. And IIRC from their IR documents they are spending more than ever. Either development just isn't going smoothly at some of their studios or they truly are already gearing up for Wii or Pii or Zii or whatever the hell is coming next.

 

[jay]

Scientific scepticism, I believe, is somewhat different from its philosophical form.

But that's largely irrelevant.

I don't think it is. You are arguing that people shouldn't be skeptical about Nintendo's Q1 releases so you've used history to show why and then dismissed history when it stopped only supporting you. And now you're arguing that skepticism regarding Q1 is somehow incorrect.

 

[Bebpo]

Oh. Ok, then I expect Darkside to do about the same.

 

[markatisu]

Well aside of MH3, which 3rd party game sold great on Wii this year? SW3 is less than SW2 (series was declinging anyway), and the sales for Graces are horrible.

Did the Wii have any big 3rd party games outside MH3 and the trifecta at the end of the year?