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[Jocchan]

If only Iwata had a gaf account.

Who do you think Mama Robotnik is?

 

[timetokill]

If you want to get into that, then all I have to say is "The Wii isn't even capable of HD graphics" and it's all over. Do you really want to turn this into a stupid feature list? Or do you actually want to discuss about how Nintendo is actively making decisions which are hurting core gamers in terms of usability?

You completely missed my point.

My list for Sony was sarcastic, and done in the vein of your previous list. To argue that the Wii isn't capable of HD graphics is part of that argument just furthers my point. But then again, you clarified it yourself:

Or do you actually want to discuss about how Nintendo is actively making decisions which are hurting core gamers in terms of usability?

The key term here is "core gamers." I don't know if you noticed, but "core gamers" is not exactly Nintendo's primary target, and core gamers certainly do not make up the entire body of consumers that would then make Nintendo "anti-consumer."

You claim that going against the standard is not being anti-consumer, and that losing one benefit does not mean there should be any gain in another. What you are basically saying is that a company can make an active decision which goes against the standard practice, which directly causes consumers to lose a benefit in usability without gaining ANY benefit in any other area, and this should not be seen as being anti-consumer. How would you explain that? Seriously.

No, I claimed that going against the standard by itself isn't anti-consumer. This isn't a debatable point. The standard changes all the time, and often for the better.

But on the second point, I meant to say (rereading it, I see the issue): "just because there's a loss of benefit in one area doesn't mean there isn't a gain in another." (bolded the fixed word). I thought the next sentences might have clarified but I guess not.

My point was that while the Friend Code system may be viewed as a "loss of benefit" to "core" consumers, it is viewed by many other consumers -- parents, for instance -- as a gain in benefit because it provides a more secure environment when their children are online playing games. And for these consumers, this is a pro-consumer decision.

(aside: it's a complete gain in benefit from previous Nintendo consoles anyway, and only a "loss" compared to other consoles -- and considering Nintendo has a broader target, making the direct comparison is shaky).


Back to the graphics point -- you have proven my point that this is about you, as a core gamer, and features that YOU want -- and not about the product or Nintendo itself.

Nintendo chose to forego many features considered standard -- the latest graphics technology, a massive online component, standard controllers -- and emphasized other features instead. They emphasized the features that they felt mattered the most to their blue ocean demographics. And I think it's pretty hard to argue with their success in that area.


If you simply want to talk about how Nintendo needs to have comparable features to Microsoft and Sony to capture the core market, then why even start? It's an obvious statement. Those consoles are designed for that niche.

Following the point I made earlier in this thread -- Nintendo's mission was never to dominate that group. There is too much competition for it, and they can't financially compete head-on with Microsoft and Sony to try and scrap for the core market.

What they CAN do is reach out to other markets that don't even consider Sony and Microsoft's consoles. And they've done that. And it is in this framework that you have to consider whether Nintendo was being "anti-consumer" or not. It has nothing to do with being anti-consumer, and rather about directing their efforts towards assembling the features that this new market would want, rather than assembling all of the core features already done better and faster by competitors.

 

[fortified_concept]

For the record, nothing beats the PSP Go in terms of being a stupid anti-consumer product. That is the benchmark for being overpriced, under-delivering, and basically retarded. But since it's bombing, I don't think we have to be too concerned about it at all.

Agreed. If that's how the DD future will be they can Go fuck themselves.

 

[legend166]

When I think anti-consumer, I don't think of frustrating features, I think of fucking you over with prices and shit. The Wii was overpriced and so was the DS, and so is the DSi. They don't drop the prices of their games and the Player's Choice line seems to be pretty much dead. Then you look at accessories and see that one fully powered controller costs about $80 at retail. Now that's some grade-a bullshit.

On the plus side, they don't really make you buy a whole lot of extra shit in addition to controllers. If you want WiFi on the 360, that's another hundred bucks, and that system is supposed to be the pinnacle of online gaming ever. And on the Sony side, they used to release their first party titles $10 below the rest, but they stopped doing that and started charging what everyone else did. They raised the price by $10 just because the rest of the industry thought it was a good idea to fuck everyone over too.

Exactly. "Poor online infrastructure" isn't anti-consumer, when they've never had a decent online infrastructure in the first place. I don't think not dropping the price of software is anti-consumer, however.

Region locking, yes. Peripheral prices, yes. But as AniHawk here has said, Nintendo isn't alone on this. Microsoft has their fair share of ridiculously priced peripherals. Activision decided to remove features from a product and then bump up the price by $10 for no reason. That's anti-consumer.

"Nintendo doesn't do what I want" does not equal anti-consumer.

Also, in regards to 'forcing friend codes', that's not even true. 3rd parties don't have to use friend codes if they don't want to.

 

[Kilrogg]

Damn. I'm sure there are cases where I myself don't use words properly, but this is a clear case of language misuse. Aside from region-locking, not being to get your downloads back and possibly hardware prices (I'm talking controllers), what Nintendo does doesn't strike me as anti-consumer. Or if it is (which it's not), I could think of a couple of measures taken by Nintendo that are way more pro-consumer than what the competition does, starting with customer support and hardware reliability (though Sony has improved a great deal regarding the latter since the PS2 days). Timetokill is right.

 

[Fafalada]

For the record, nothing beats the PSP Go in terms of being a stupid anti-consumer product.

Care to name one thing that is "anti-consumer" about PSP Go other then price?

 

[duckroll]

Care to name one thing that is "anti-consumer" about PSP Go other then price?

Nope, I don't care to continue this conversation at all. Let's just leave it as that.

 

[Durante]

When I think "anti-consumer" and hardware companies I think region locking. Sure, it doesn't affect most gamers, but it's one of the few decisions that can clearly be identified as having no advantage for consumers at all while being trivial for the manufacturers to rectify.

 

[schuelma]

Wow this thread really took off in some interesting directions

 

[duckroll]

It's all my fault. No wait, I take it back. I blame Nintendo for not having released enough interesting software this week for people to talk about.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Calling Nintendo stupid and inept and those responsible for their own failure is one thing; calling them consistently "anti-consumer" is another. "Anti-consumer" =/= features that I dislike. (Although, logically, an anti-consumer feature would also happen to be a feature that I dislike.)

When I think of anti-Consumer Nintendo policies that are still in effect today, I largely think of:
- Region locking and actively moving to block region-free solutions even if they weren't piracy-enabling. Microsoft has a limited region lock and does not encourage or discourage publishers to use it, Sony is region free for games.

- Downgrading the Wii by disabling MP3 support and removing custom soundtracks from sequels to games that had them. Both Microsoft and Sony have added media format support, MS has system-wide custom soundtracks, Sony is too technically inept to pull that off just yet but maybe some day

- Poor localization record and choices appear to be related to image rather than quality or financial viability. Microsoft, obviously, is a North American company so there's no room for worry there. Sony's record isn't as good, although at the very least we know that they've allowed other publishers (in the last year, Natsume with Afrika and Atlus with Demon's Souls) to pick up their stuff whereas publishers have commented that Nintendo titles are pretty generally off limits--if Nintendo passes, it ain't coming here.

- Refusal to drop software MSRP on first-party titles even when they are done selling, bullying retailers not to drop MSRP on first-party titles (most public example; when Nintendo literally threatened not to ship any DSes to Japanese retailers who price-dropped copies of Mario Galaxy in the first three months). Discontinued Player's Choice line. Both Sony and MS have greatest hits lines and both are generally pretty good at dropping MSRP with very few exceptions.

- This is probably a contentious one. Releasing peripherals and products and then abandoning them. The eReader. The DS Rumble Pak. The Balance Board. The Wii Speak. The Wii Motion Plus. GBA connectivity. DS connectivity. The Vitality Sensor. There's nothing wrong with coming up with a software feature that's delivered for free and then not really making optimal use of it. But Nintendo's pattern of coming up with devices, marketing them as something that will be standard in the future, and then bailing on software leading third-parties to ignore it... It's anti-consumer if you think they exaggerate the long-term viability in marketing or make claims knowing the hardware will be dead. It's inept but not anti-consumer if they're just totally unable to figure out what to do with their own stuff. Either way, it's a pattern of behaviour with Nintendo.

I would also say that some of their hardware design decisions have probably resulted in a worse experience for consumers to no particular financial benefit for anyone. I don't think these were exactly malicious. As one example; not allowing patching on the Wii. Yes, yes, patches make developers lazy, meanwhile just about every single game from AAA to budget trash on every non-Nintendo platform I own has been improved in some way since I purchased it.

Friend codes are dopey and result in a worse consumer experience--ditto lack of user profiles on the Wii--but I don't think it's anti-consumer. To me, "anti-consumer" means behaviour that knowingly shifts the balance of power from the consumer to the manufacturer with an eye towards making additional money.

 

[shinshero]

Still, the PS2 could go online, so why didn't they put in all those features? It was very anti-consumer of them to not allow you to use the PS2's internet connectivity and store friends and track them in a list and so on, right? And is the PS3 is anti-consumer because its feature set isn't as robust as Xbox Live's?

Yes, the Friend Codes are created and planned by Nintendo, but in order to be anti-consumer there actually has to be intent. They're using a method that is designed to protect players from unwanted contact with random strangers. Nintendo has always been a family-friendly company, so I'm not sure why you're surprised.

Nintendo didn't devise the system as a way to say "haha, SCREW YOU CONSUMERS!" As much as I dislike the Friend Codes system, it's simply there, and its part of the implementation. For us it might be frustrating, but for many parents out there it's a welcome feature. The implementation still allows you to "friend" people based on the game's implementation and having their code. Is it a horrible system for us here on GAF? Of course. It's still not part of a "screw the consumer" initiative on Nintendo's part. It's part of a free service, by the way.




Yes, you are able to run games off the SD card. You are also able to download directly to your SD card from the Wii Shop, meaning you don't even have to go through and move the files around yourself. Nintendo listened to customers and added this feature in, and it works as well as you could want. I have a SD card in my Wii and I run games off of it all the time.



I agree they should be tied to the account and redownloadable, and I hope they remedy this.




Going against the standard practice doesn't mean it's anti-consumer, and just because there's a loss of benefit in one area doesn't mean there is a gain in another. With the Wii Friend Codes system, for instance, it's about an increase in privacy and safety for younger users. For many parents that IS a benefit.

Also, there is still the ability to add friends of yours to the Wii's friends list, and gift them with games, send messages, game screenshots, and so on. It's not like there isn't a friends system whatsoever.


You also haven't commented on my list of, in comparison to your Nintendo list, then Sony is super anti-consumer. Do you agree with those points, or are they off-base?

Are you seriously comparing the online infrastructure of a console that launched 9 years ago (and did not natively support online out of the box) with a console that launched 3 years ago that was supposed to support online out of the box?

 

[RpgN]

Care to name one thing that is "anti-consumer" about PSP Go other then price?

Should this question even be asked? It's anti-consumer from top to toe. And I'm so glad it bombed badly, hopefully it will stay that way. DD is good and I buy lots of DD games, but not at this condition.

 

[Road]

For anyone that follows the comgnet preorder rankings. NSMB Wii certainly looks like its going to be absolutely massive (like possibly coming close to or equalling NSMB DS's first week).

I was really surprised with the big jump yesterday (200 - 279). It put it ahead of the DS version. I guess marketing is paying off? It'll be interesting to see how it performs from now on.

 

[RpgN]

Are you seriously comparing the online infrastructure of a console that launched 9 years ago (and did not natively support online out of the box) with a console that launched 3 years ago that was supposed to support online out of the box?

I was thinking the same thing. When the ps2 was released, online gaming wasn't the standard and it was all very experimental. Then the xbox introduced xbox live after a while and it was a huge success. It was too late for sony to do much about it and they didn't have a decent structure. By the end of the xbox vs ps2 race, microsoft kind of made online gaming a standard. The next gen consoles were guaranteerd to implement online features, it was obvious that online was here to stay and pretty much a must with most multiplayer games. Nintendo knew this and this is a new gen with the results behind us during the ps2 era, not the ps2 era.

 

[gerg]

Text.

I don't regard most of that as "anti-consumer". I somewhat agree with your definition of "anti-consumer" as "behaviour that knowingly shifts the balance of power from the consumer to the manufacturer with an eye towards making additional money". I think that this could be refined further, but as a rough definition it seems to fit.

So lets evaluate your list on these terms, then.

Region locking and actively moving to block region-free solutions even if they weren't piracy-enabling. Microsoft has a limited region lock and does not encourage or discourage publishers to use it, Sony is region free for games.

This is not anti-consumer. The consumer can choose not to buy the hardware.

Poor localization record and choices appear to be related to image rather than quality or financial viability. Microsoft, obviously, is a North American company so there's no room for worry there. Sony's record isn't as good, although at the very least we know that they've allowed other publishers (in the last year, Natsume with Afrika and Atlus with Demon's Souls) to pick up their stuff whereas publishers have commented that Nintendo titles are pretty generally off limits--if Nintendo passes, it ain't coming here.

Nintendo has no obligation to release games, so I can't see how a "poor localization record" is anti-consumer (or even pro-consumer) in any way.

Refusal to drop software MSRP on first-party titles even when they are done selling, bullying retailers not to drop MSRP on first-party titles (most public example; when Nintendo literally threatened not to ship any DSes to Japanese retailers who price-dropped copies of Mario Galaxy in the first three months). Discontinued Player's Choice line. Both Sony and MS have greatest hits lines and both are generally pretty good at dropping MSRP with very few exceptions.

Nintendo has no obligation to drop its MSRP, so that's not anti-consumer. Bullying retailers, on the other hand, is anti-consumer.

This is probably a contentious one. Releasing peripherals and products and then abandoning them. The eReader. The DS Rumble Pak. The Balance Board. The Wii Speak. The Wii Motion Plus. GBA connectivity. DS connectivity. The Vitality Sensor. There's nothing wrong with coming up with a software feature that's delivered for free and then not really making optimal use of it. But Nintendo's pattern of coming up with devices, marketing them as something that will be standard in the future, and then bailing on software leading third-parties to ignore it... It's anti-consumer if you think they exaggerate the long-term viability in marketing or make claims knowing the hardware will be dead. It's inept but not anti-consumer if they're just totally unable to figure out what to do with their own stuff. Either way, it's a pattern of behaviour with Nintendo.

It depends on how disingenuous Nintendo is here. Nevertheless, not supporting their own hardware is not anti-consumer.

AFAIC, an "anti-consumer" strategy is one that removes choices from the consumer, either directly or indirectly. (A more accurate definition might be that anti-consumer behaviour removes competition in the marketplace.) In all the examples you mention above (except for the one about bullying retailers), consumers still have the option of not buying the product. "Anti-consumer" is when you essentially remove this ability, as was the case with Microsoft and its infamous distribution of Internet Explorer. And, unless I am mistaken (in which case I apologize), in your example of Nintendo not lowering the MSRP of its first party titles, the shop-owner can ignore the MSRP and take a loss. Better yet, they can choose to not stock the product. (And, again, the consumer can choose not to buy the product, which may very well be the case regarding Nintendo and its still-expensive first-party titles.)

Should this question even be asked? It's anti-consumer from top to toe. And I'm so glad it bombed badly, hopefully it will stay that way. DD is good and I buy lots of DD games, but not at this condition.

The PSPgo is a pretty badly designed and positioned piece of hardware, no doubt, but I don't think it's really anti-consumer.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Are you seriously comparing the online infrastructure of a console that launched 9 years ago (and did not natively support online out of the box) with a console that launched 3 years ago that was supposed to support online out of the box?

Ineptitude isn't anti-consumer. Malice is anti-consumer.

 

[schuelma]

I was really surprised with the big jump yesterday (200 - 279). It put it ahead of the DS version. I guess marketing is paying off? It'll be interesting to see how it performs from now on.

Yeah that was the jump I was referencing.

Wii Sports Resort had 166 total preorders when it launched as a comparison.

 

[Chris1964]

Given the lack of first day sales and most likely any DSi LL sales not coming until Monday-Tuesday, good time to discuss about which next week titles we could predict. See Chris1964 list. Thought it'd be easier, but doesn't seem so. Last 2 puyo puyo games on both PSP or Wii didn't start in top30. Cooking Mama 2 didn't either. So I'm left with: Layton 4, Higurashi PSP, Joysound DX Wii, Momotaro 2010 Wii and Naruto 4 Wii. But quite a few questions about those: the Higurashi is a Mega Edition of a last year title on the same dates that managed top10 (so I suppose it'll be smaller), I'm not really sure if Joysound DX is a proper sequel or repackage or something, Momotaro on Wii isn't anywhere as strong as it was on PS2 or DS (previous one barely made top30), and Naruto on Wii has been going down with each new title (last one #24 start).

Some help would be appreciated

Last Momotaro Railway for Wii was a 6 month late port of the PS2 version. This one is this year’s main entry and should have a better start/LTD. But besides this and Layton everything else seems like a lost case. Puyo Puyo 7 has already come out for DS and WII and PSP late versions will sell near to zero copies, Cooking Mama is a small franchise in Japan, Tea Dog’s Room DS may sell in the long run, but not at the first week, Naruto isn’t as popular as it used to be, goes down on Wii with every new release and two weeks later Naruto: Shippuuden Narutimate Accelerator 3 comes out for PSP, Karaoke Joysound Wii DX is Karaoke Joysound Wii 1.1 and Higurashi Daybreak Portable: Mega Edition is an updated version of Higurashi Daybreak Portable. From all the new releases this week I would pick Layton, Momotaro Railway and maybe Higurashi.

 

[shinshero]

Anyone want to make guesses for PS3 December HW number? How about whether the PS3 will hit 4M before FF XIII hits. I'd say yes.

So ummm...here's my prediction:

Week 1: 70K
Week 2: 100K
Week 3: 280K
Week 4: 140K

Total: 590K

Expected LTD: 4.5M

 

[schuelma]

Anyone want to make guesses for PS3 December HW number? How about whether the PS3 will hit 4M before FF XIII hits. I'd say yes.

So ummm...here's my prediction:

Week 1: 70K
Week 2: 100K
Week 3: 280K
Week 4: 140K

Holy frack 280K?? :lol :lol :lol Did the PS2 ever get that high? Wow

Here are my rough predictions..subject to change (I'm really going to try and get a December hardware PS3/Wii prediction going next week!).

W1- 50
W2- 65
W3- 155
W4- 140

410 total

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Holy frack 280K?? :lol :lol :lol Did the PS2 ever get that high? Wow

Past launch probably once. The last week of 2001 and the first week of 2002 was one of Famitsu's two week combined periods, but they averaged out to 281,818.

Past launch, Media Create has Wii narrowly missing 280K the week starting December 18, 2006, with 279,277.

 

[shinshero]

Holy frack 280K?? :lol :lol :lol Did the PS2 ever get that high? Wow

Here are my rough predictions..subject to change (I'm really going to try and get a December hardware PS3/Wii prediction going next week!).

W1- 50
W2- 65
W3- 155
W4- 140

410 total

Haha...I'm just expecting some crazy numbers because there is some serious pent up demand for FF XIII + Holiday Effect (not to mention LE FFXIII PS3 looks really nifty).

I mean, if PS3 sales went up to 56K over a FF XIII demo (in spring) imagine whats going to happen with FFXIII + Cool LE PS3 FFXIII + Holiday Season.

Plus if FFXIII is going to realistically meet a 2M+ LTD in Japan, PS3 has to do some crazy numbers so that the tie ratio is less than 50% which is pretty much unheard of for a game.

 

[schuelma]

Haha...I'm just expecting some crazy numbers because there is some serious pent up demand for FF XIII + Holiday Effect (not to mention LE FFXIII PS3 looks really nifty).

I mean, if PS3 sales went up to 56K over a FF XIII demo (in spring) imagine whats going to happen with FFXIII + Cool LE PS3 FFXIII + Holiday Season.

Plus if FFXIII is going to realistically meet a 2M+ LTD in Japan, PS3 has to do some crazy numbers so that the tie ratio is less than 50% which is pretty much unheard of for a game.

I mean, don't listen to me- I've consistently underestimated the PS3 since September...it just feels high to me. I think people have been buying PS3's for FF for a while and so I'm not convinced we're going to see such an epic bump. Should be interesting though.

 

[shinshero]

I mean, don't listen to me- I've consistently underestimated the PS3 since September...it just feels high to me. I think people have been buying PS3's for FF for a while and so I'm not convinced we're going to see such an epic bump. Should be interesting though.

That's a fair point but think about this.

There are 2.2 to 2.5M potential FF XIII purchasers (not saying all of them will be able to afford to experience FF XIII within the next 3 montsh) BUT I doubt all of them have PS3's by now. Simply because 2.2 to 2.5M people represent 56% to 64% of the current PS3 install base. While I'm expecting close to 45% of PS3 owners to buy FF XIII, which means the PS3 needs a big boost for it to achieve 2M + FF XIII sales in Japan.

 

[schuelma]

Thats true but think about this.

There are 2.2 to 2.5M potential FF XIII purchasers (not saying all of them will be able to afford to experience FF XIII within the next 3 montsh) BUT I doubt all of them have PS3's by now. Simply because 2.2 to 2.5M people represent 56% to 64% of the current PS3 install base. While I'm expecting close to 45% of PS3 owners to buy FF XIII, which means the PS3 needs a big boost for it to achieve 2M + FF XIII sales in Japan.

Others have made this point before me, but I'm wondering if the potential base is quite that high these days.

 

[duckroll]

I feel 2 million is sort of the ceiling for FFXIII in Japan. In a best case scenario, it will sell 2 million eventually. 2.2-2.5 million is not really realistic, because logically there has to be a decline from FFX era sales.

Why? Because if you look at the LTD of all FF games from the beginning until now, it went from a million plus selling series in the FC and early SFC eras (FF1-4), to a 2 million plus selling series in the later SFC era (FF5-6), to a 3 million plus selling series in the early PS1 era (FF7-8), before starting it's decline back to a high 2 million plus selling FF9, down to FF10 and 12 which both sold about what FF5 sold back in the mid-SFC era.

What does this mean? It doesn't just indicate to me that FF is starting to lose a bit of the huge fanbase which it built up rather rapidly, but rather that FF's top end sales also mirror and reflect the growth in the videogame industry in Japan. As the industry grew from a niche hobby to something more and more mainstream, FF caught up and rode the tide very successfully.

But once it hit the PS2 era, the market started to become saturated. The PS2 was no doubt a HUGE success and the hardware sold a shitload, but it was also about that period when software sales started to see a decline after years of endless growth. The average game started selling less and less as the market got more and more crowded, and as it got saturated, gamers got more picky or just lost interest in buying everything all the time.

The current generation we have now is even worse. Not only is it still saturated, but the userbase itself is totally fragmented. Gamers with different interests and priorities are split over different consoles and/or portables, and hence might not contribute sales to games on systems they don't own even if they might have a passing interest.

With that in mind, I find it really hard to believe that there are still 2.5 million gamers going "RAH RAH MUST GET FFXIII ZOMG!" when there weren't even 2.5 million gamers who felt that way about FFX or FFXII. It's just not logical to expect the series to suddenly experience a GROWTH in sales on a system with a lower installed base, in a worse economic climate, and in a more saturated and fragmented gaming generation, especially when S-E has done NOTHING which would indicate that the FF brand is being strengthened and renewed during the long years between FFXII and FFXIII. If anything, I see even more potential customers slipping away because they have mismanaged and further watered down the quality standard and meaning behind the FF brand.

So yeah, to summarize, 2 million is the ceiling for FFXIII in Japan on the PS3, which imo will be a BIG success if they actually get those sales. More realistically I expect the game to launch with maybe a million units of sales, but not much more or much less than that. I don't think the game will have any problems crawling to 1.5-1.6 million at all, it's totally an attainable goal, and if the world of mouth and/or promotional magic they pull off in Dec is incredibly strong, 1.7 to 2 million is not impossible. But that's the max.

 

[Yoboman]

Most major franchises have seen an increase in fanbase rather than a decrease in recent years. I think FFXIII has the killer-app label stitched on as well that'll help a lot.

If it delivers as a quality game, it should deliver on sales

 

[duckroll]

Most major franchises have seen an increase in fanbase rather than a decrease in recent years. I think FFXIII has the killer-app label stitched on as well that'll help a lot.

In Japan? Which ones? :lol

DMC4 is the only one I can which actually had an increase over the previous release, but mostly because of a multiplatform release. Otherwise the increase from DMC3 to DMC4 PS3 is a mere 30k.

 

[schuelma]

Most major franchises have seen an increase in fanbase rather than a decrease in recent years. I think FFXIII has the killer-app label stitched on as well that'll help a lot.

Like what? Nintendo games? I think Biohazard and DMC maybe, but the numbers are so much lower than Final Fantasy I don't know how many conclusions you can draw.

 

[duckroll]

Like what? Nintendo games? I think Biohazard and DMC maybe, but the numbers are so much lower than Final Fantasy I don't know how many conclusions you can draw.

Nope, RE5 PS3+360 is still lower than RE4 GC+PS2.

 

[schuelma]

Nope, RE5 PS3+360 is still lower than RE4 GC+PS2.

Ok well nevermind that one!

 

[wrowa]

There are 2.2 to 2.5M potential FF XIII purchasers (not saying all of them will be able to afford to experience FF XIII within the next 3 montsh) BUT I doubt all of them have PS3's by now.

Eh, I don't like that line of thinking. Just because there might be "2.2 to 2.5M potential FFXIII purchasers" it doesn't mean that all of these people are interested enough in the game to buy a PS3 because of it. In that case you're assuming that everyone who bought previous FF games is a hardcore FF fan and therefore buys even a new console just to play the newest game. That's not a very likely scenario, if you ask me. It's more likely that many people only bought previous FFs because they already owned the console it was released on.

It kinda reminds me of the guy (with one important difference: that guy was absolutely dumb and you're not) who said that Blue Dragon will sell a million 360s. Why? Because every Sakaguchi game sells at least a million copies in Japan. It was a given to him that Blue Dragon will sell at least a million units, so people also have to buy a million 360s in order to play it. That was what he called "logic".

 

[duckroll]

It kinda reminds me of the guy (with one important difference: that guy was absolutely dumb and you're not) who said that Blue Dragon will sell a million 360s. Why? Because every Sakaguchi game sells at least a million copies in Japan. It was a given to him that Blue Dragon will sell at least a million units, so people also have to buy a million 360s in order to play it. That was what he called "logic".

I think that guy was Sakaguchi.

 

[Spiegel]

Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest are the only ones I can think right now.

But they aren't on Ps3

 

[shinshero]

Eh, I don't like that line of thinking. Just because there might be "2.2 to 2.5M potential FFXIII purchasers" it doesn't mean that all of these people are interested enough in the game to buy a PS3 because of it. In that case you're assuming that everyone who bought previous FF games is a hardcore FF fan and therefore buys even a new console just to play the newest game. That's not a very likely scenario, if you ask me. It's more likely that many people only bought previous FFs because they already owned the console it was released on.

It kinda reminds me of the guy (with one important difference: that guy was absolutely dumb and you're not) who said that Blue Dragon will sell a million 360s. Why? Because every Sakaguchi game sells at least a million copies in Japan. It was a given to him that Blue Dragon will sell at least a million units, so people also have to buy a million 360s in order to play it. That was what he called "logic".

Hence why I said "(not saying all of them will be able to afford to experience FF XIII within the next 3 montsh)"

 

[schuelma]

Hence why I said "(not saying all of them will be able to afford to experience FF XIII within the next 3 montsh)"

Well that's when virtually everyone buys a FF mainline game it seems like.

 

[duckroll]

Hence why I said "(not saying all of them will be able to afford to experience FF XIII within the next 3 montsh)"

So what do you think of my analysis?

 

[shinshero]

So what do you think of my analysis?

I think its pretty much spot on. It's pretty clear that Final Fantasy franchise has been declining in popularity in Japan since FF 8 to be honest (with FF 7 being the peak). I mean, I expect 2M to be the upper end of FF XIII sales with 1.8M LTD being the lower end.

That said, DQ 9 has demonstrated that there is still a healthy JRPG market out there for big franchises. Obviously, this does not neccessarily translate to consoles since the DS has brought in new consumers.

 

[Opiate]

Most major franchises have seen an increase in fanbase rather than a decrease in recent years. I think FFXIII has the killer-app label stitched on as well that'll help a lot.

If it delivers as a quality game, it should deliver on sales

I've already been burned by this after claiming something similar.

It's not true. Virtually everything has sold less (RE, MGS, Winning Eleven, Hot Shots Golf, Gundam, Virtua Fighter, Dynasty Warriors, and many more). These franchises have sold anywhere from 15%-50% less, and presumably cost significantly more to make, so it's a bad deal all around.

Edit: For argument's sake, the only "HD franchise" that can possibly be considered to have sold more is DMC, which outsold DMC3 slightly, but is still profoundly down from DMC2.

 

[shinshero]

I've already been burned by this after claiming something similar.

It's not true. Virtually everything has sold less (RE, MGS, Winning Eleven, Hot Shots Golf, Gundam, DMC, Dynasty Warriors, and many more). These franchises have sold anywhere from 15%-50% less, and presumably cost significantly more to make, so it's a bad deal all around.

Fighting games have taken the greatest hit. I guess SF/Tekken was more of a mid to late 90's thing. :lol

Actually, I'm interested to know why. Does anyone have any information which could give us an idea as to why fighting games on home consoles have declined so greatly.

 

[Opiate]

Fighting games have taken the greatest hit. I guess SF/Tekken was more of a mid to late 90's thing. :lol

Actually, I'm interested to know why. Does anyone have any information which could give us an idea as to why fighting games on home consoles have declined so greatly.

I actually believe the hardest hit of the franchises I listed is Hot Shots Golf. It's close, though. Regardless, all of the games I mentioned are (presumably) spending more to sell less.

 

[Opiate]

To me, "anti-consumer" means behaviour that knowingly shifts the balance of power from the consumer to the manufacturer with an eye towards making additional money.

This is what the term means. It has to: if it were simply "things I don't like," then virtually anything can be anti-consumer from someone's perspective.

What if you have an SDTV and have no plans to upgrade? From this person's perspective, the addition of HD may seem like a completely superfluous addition that does nothing but drive up the cost of the system. Tah dah! HD is anti-consumer.

The definition you have just given is the only one which can be applied objectively and not relatively. Producer intent must be considered.

 

[wrowa]

Hence why I said "(not saying all of them will be able to afford to experience FF XIII within the next 3 montsh)"

I think it's less a matter of "being able to afford" as of "wanting to afford"

 

[charlequin]

I don't see how we can place that much blame on Nintendo. It's third parties that screwed up the show.

Because in the aggregate, platform-holders have a huge and significant influence on the behaviors of third parties. Microsoft and Sony both utilize a variety of techniques, not limited to "moneyhats," to bring third-party titles to their platforms; it's clear that Nintendo is willing to do so (since they clearly sought out both MH3 and DQX) but they didn't do a good enough job and are reaping the consequences of that now.

This line just makes you sound like you're stuck in 2007.

If the Wii wasn't attracting third party games on the basis of its massive install base, it is Nintendo's prerogative to convince them otherwise.

This is a nice brief way of putting it, yes.

The core gamer market is so segmented now that a huge userbase on the Wii is not an immediate draw to any publisher to development team, unless they feel they will be able to also tap into the more casual market that Nintendo has captured so successfully.

I don't think this was really a good plan, though. It's not like, by and large, people have actually found success in the casual market -- more than anything else because these developers don't have the core competencies to make good casual games.

I think the real problem on the publisher side here is myopia about what exactly the "core" market contains. Historically there's a whole realm of games that have appeal to gaming hobbyists without pandering to the 18-35 male cohort or driving away "casual" players, but third-parties have seemingly been willing to let that market atrophy.

There will be groups that you simply can't convince without giving up too much.

Nintendo has shitloads of money, is currently losing huge amounts of value on the backs of the Wii's current failure. There is no legitimate way to argue that they are pledging enough value to this cause.

Calling Nintendo stupid and inept and those responsible for their own failure is one thing; calling them consistently "anti-consumer" is another.

Sure, but they're two things that are both accurate.

In fairness, there isn't a hardware manufacturer that has not implemented anti-consumer practices that would be completely unimaginable a generation ago this time around. Microsoft has far more offensive pricing than they do and Sony's ruined all the cred they built up with the consumer-friendly PS3 by releasing literally the most anti-consumer product gaming has ever seen in the PSP Go.

I don't think everything that people have listed in this thread qualifies, certainly, but Nintendo's storage policies and their doubling-down on region-locking when everyone else is loosening up on it is downright regressive and sleazy.

Haha...I'm just expecting some crazy numbers because there is some serious pent up demand for FF XIII + Holiday Effect (not to mention LE FFXIII PS3 looks really nifty).

As I said before, software bumps tend to overlap heavily with holiday bumps. You're not going to have X people who want to buy a PS3 for New Years' and Y people who want to buy a PS3 for FFXIII; a lot of the former are also going to be the latter.

I think you're probably looking at a baseline of, like, 160k for the PS3 in the highest week of this December given the new Slim success; I'd expect FFXIII to bring that up to maybe 200k.

While I'm expecting close to 45% of PS3 owners to buy FF XIII, which means the PS3 needs a big boost for it to achieve 2M + FF XIII sales in Japan.

I think you have this backwards. The math you are showing is indicating why FF XIII is going to underperform previous FFs, not why PS3 is going to see an abnormally huge December.

Most major franchises have seen an increase in fanbase rather than a decrease in recent years.

Er, this is exactly the opposite of true. Maybe you should actually read the M-C threads in weeks where the PS3 isn't on an upswing if you want to comment on this sort of thing. :lol

 

[gerg]

In fairness, there isn't a hardware manufacturer that has not implemented anti-consumer practices that would be completely unimaginable a generation ago this time around. Microsoft has far more offensive pricing than they do and Sony's ruined all the cred they built up with the consumer-friendly PS3 by releasing literally the most anti-consumer product gaming has ever seen in the PSP Go.

I don't think everything that people have listed in this thread qualifies, certainly, but Nintendo's storage policies and their doubling-down on region-locking when everyone else is loosening up on it is downright regressive and sleazy.

Sure. But "regressive and sleazy" isn't "anti-consumer".

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Does Nintendo even want 3rd parties to be successful? A sale for a 3rd party title is potentially a sale less for a 1st party title.

Third party games are going to sell. Certainly they'd be better off if the consumer hardware purchases and publisher licensing fees were headed their way rather than somewhere else.

 

[Kenka]

This thread is going on without first day numbers ?

 

[schuelma]

This thread is going on without first day numbers ?

Yeah its weird. I expect Taiko Wii to at least do 30-40K..don't know why the leakers didn't report anything.

 

[charlequin]

Sure. But "regressive and sleazy" isn't "anti-consumer".

These things are all three. Region-locking is just about the most unambiguous and pure expression of contempt for the consumer that exists in the gaming world and only Nintendo has doubled down on it. The lack of a legitimate storage solution is similarly implemented in a way that serves only to reduce the consumer's options without providing any end-user benefit (as opposed to, say, the friend codes system, which is an extremely dubious tradeoff but still at least implemented with a specific end-user "benefit" in mind.)

Oh! I also forgot the Wii's inability (or Nintendo's unwillingness) to tie purchases to an account, thereby forcing you to go through Nintendo's specific process and pay their specific prices to recover content that you own upon a system failure. Also extremely anti-consumer.