slaughterking
Member
Excellent sales for SMT SJ. Good to see it having first day sales worthy of a mainline entry.
Media Create Sales: Sep 28 - Oct 4
- Thread starter cvxfreak
- Start date
DangerousDave said:
I would not count MH because the game has always been on a Sony system. Plus I gather it would sell better on the PSP than on the Wii for the same reason a Pokemon game would sell better on the DS than on the Wii.
I don't think NSMB Wii will sell as much as the DS game , but it could sell much more than SMG. 2D Mario games are just more popular. Just look at the top VC games.
I think Nintendo will be in big trouble if it does not sell much more than SMG. The game should move hardware too imo. Even this late into the console life I think NSMB Wii should be a system seller for the Wii.
31. [PS3] Mobile Suit Gundam: Battlefield Record U.C. 0081 (Namco Bandai)
32. [NDS] Puyo Puyo 7 (Sega)
33. [WII] Endless Ocean 2: Call of the Sea (Nintendo)
34. [PS2] Touka Gettan: Koufuu no Ryouou (Kadokawa Shoten)
35. [WII] Dead Space: Extraction (Electronic Arts Victor)
36. [360] Cross Edge: Dash (Compile Heart)
37. [NDS] Pokemon Platinum (Pokemon Co.)
38. [PS2] Shin Hisui no Shizuku: Scarlet Fragments 2 (Idea Factory)
39. [NDS] Welcome Home! Chibi-Robo! Happy Rich Big Cleaning (Nintendo)
40. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto IV（PlayStation 3 the Best) (Capcom)
41. [PS3] Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (Playstation 3 the Best) (Konami)
42. [PS3] Uncharted: Drake's Fortune (Playstation 3 the Best) (SCE)
43. [WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii (Namco Bandai)
44. [NDS] Mario Kart DS (Nintendo)
45. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo)
46. [360] Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (Platinum Collection) (Activision)
47. [PSP] Taikou Risshiden V (Koei)
48. [PSP] Way of the Samurai 2 Portable (Spike)
49. [PS2] Scarlet Fragments: Aizouban (Twin Pack) (Idea Factory)
50. [PSP] Katekyoo Hitman Reborn! Battle Arena 2: Spirits Burst (Marvelous Entertainment)
xx. [ALL] Total Software Sales - 1.774.446 / 45.888.696
Sellthrough of Wii Fit Plus is 79,02%. Most of the purchasers own the original Wii Fit
Inazuma Eleven 2: Blizzard to Inazuma Eleven 2: Fire ratio = 57:43
Inazuma Eleven LTD = 411.000
Sellthrough of Gran Turismo is 53,08%
* There are many multiple versions of the same title (Pokemon, Inazuma Eleven, etc.). That's the reason for combined rankings.
* PS2 hits new low again. The king has finally fallen. (this is mine not from Media Create)
32. [NDS] Puyo Puyo 7 (Sega)
33. [WII] Endless Ocean 2: Call of the Sea (Nintendo)
34. [PS2] Touka Gettan: Koufuu no Ryouou (Kadokawa Shoten)
35. [WII] Dead Space: Extraction (Electronic Arts Victor)
36. [360] Cross Edge: Dash (Compile Heart)
37. [NDS] Pokemon Platinum (Pokemon Co.)
38. [PS2] Shin Hisui no Shizuku: Scarlet Fragments 2 (Idea Factory)
39. [NDS] Welcome Home! Chibi-Robo! Happy Rich Big Cleaning (Nintendo)
40. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto IV（PlayStation 3 the Best) (Capcom)
41. [PS3] Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (Playstation 3 the Best) (Konami)
42. [PS3] Uncharted: Drake's Fortune (Playstation 3 the Best) (SCE)
43. [WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii (Namco Bandai)
44. [NDS] Mario Kart DS (Nintendo)
45. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo)
46. [360] Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (Platinum Collection) (Activision)
47. [PSP] Taikou Risshiden V (Koei)
48. [PSP] Way of the Samurai 2 Portable (Spike)
49. [PS2] Scarlet Fragments: Aizouban (Twin Pack) (Idea Factory)
50. [PSP] Katekyoo Hitman Reborn! Battle Arena 2: Spirits Burst (Marvelous Entertainment)
xx. [ALL] Total Software Sales - 1.774.446 / 45.888.696
Sellthrough of Wii Fit Plus is 79,02%. Most of the purchasers own the original Wii Fit
Inazuma Eleven 2: Blizzard to Inazuma Eleven 2: Fire ratio = 57:43
Inazuma Eleven LTD = 411.000
Sellthrough of Gran Turismo is 53,08%
* There are many multiple versions of the same title (Pokemon, Inazuma Eleven, etc.). That's the reason for combined rankings.
* PS2 hits new low again. The king has finally fallen. (this is mine not from Media Create)
So, based on previous Atlus releases going from first day to first week, it looks totally likely that SMT SJ will clear 100k in the first week. Depending on whether they restock over the weekend or not, it could do up to 120k possibly. Regardless, with a first week figure of 100k, as long as word of mouth stays strong, it's likely the game could do over 200k lifetime, which is fantastic for Atlus and for SMT fans worried about a possible lack of appeal for the more traditional and less mainstream style of SMT. 
GO GO KANEKO!
As for Blue Dragon..... with a first day figure of 7.5k, and it being a mere 22% take up rate of a pathetic 35k shipment.... I doubt the game will even sell 30k honestly. I'll be shocked if it sells out the first shipment ever. Expect this to be 10 bucks in Japan by the end of the month. Too bad for Sakaguchi, too bad for Mistwalker and too bad for Tri-Crescendo. It's not too bad for Bandai Namco Games, since they deserve to lose money on something they failed utterly to market.
GO GO KANEKO!
As for Blue Dragon..... with a first day figure of 7.5k, and it being a mere 22% take up rate of a pathetic 35k shipment.... I doubt the game will even sell 30k honestly. I'll be shocked if it sells out the first shipment ever. Expect this to be 10 bucks in Japan by the end of the month. Too bad for Sakaguchi, too bad for Mistwalker and too bad for Tri-Crescendo. It's not too bad for Bandai Namco Games, since they deserve to lose money on something they failed utterly to market.
JoshuaJSlone said:
Compared to the analysis you did after the first three months of the year, the market has recovered a bit YOY with all the push. I didn't even remember how bad things looked as a whole when the year started.JoshuaJSlone said:
Back then, only the 360 was the system selling relatively great compared to 2008. Now it seems like the PS3 may have the best growth. In fact, with the latest numbers, it has already surpassed 2008's total by MC (not yet by Famitsu, in parenthesis; maybe in one or two weeks, though).
PS3 yearly comparison -- M-Create (Famitsu):
2008 - 980,797 (991,303)
2009 - 988,161 (963,705)
The other systems that have a shot at doing the same are 360 and DS.
Wii is a little bit less worse, but keeps being the biggest offender right behind the PSP (in absolute numbers).
Back to PS3 and some silly graph I did past week:
Coincidentally, the PS3 sold exactly 37k. Hehe Next goal is 36k (PSP slim started to stabilize approaching a new, higher floor). Let's see what the PS3 will do. (By the way, the comparison using MC data is more favorable to the PS3: last week should have been 33k, it did 37k; this week should be 32k.)Road said:
Finally, Dengeki also has the PS3 above Wii this week.
Code:
Hardware | This Week | Last Week | LTD
NDS | 59,380 | 77,316 | 27,787,665
PSP | 49,254 | 15,254 | 12,721,713
Wii | 32,030 | 10,574 | 8,657,804
PS3 | 33,628 | 43,279 | 3,692,450
X360 | 3,403 | 5,419 | 1,144,913
PS2 | 2,457 | 3,139 |
Total | 180,152 | 154,981 |Magicpaint
Member
Good SMT:SJ first day sales -- as expected it does better than EO1 and 2. Hopefully it does >100K first week and maintains some decent legs. At least that way we'd be guaranteed more classic Megaten. I mean why the hell wouldn't Atlus want to reuse the sprite assets?
Also Level-5 needs to give up on the Atamania series :lol
Can't believe how badly this bombed. For something that looked like a relatively good effort (at least compared to BD+) it's going to sell FAR less than BD+ which was already bomba. It makes me wonder why Bamco even bothered taking up publishing duties if they couldn't give a shit about the damn game.duckroll said:
Also Level-5 needs to give up on the Atamania series :lol
Magicpaint said:
This is a great mystery that Bamco will likely take with them into the grave. I have to wonder though, Mistwalker seems to have shit marketing for every single game they design, regardless of publisher.
Microsoft:
Blue Dragon 360 - No gameplay footage or actual information until the playable demo debuted at TGS a mere 3 months before the game was released. Wut?
Lost Odyssey 360 - Playable demo released on a DVD packed with Famitsu a year before the game is out. Demo was shit, ran like crap and gave a shit impression of the game.
Nintendo:
ASH DS - Announced 2 years in advance with no footage. No news for 2 years, only to resurface suddenly about 3 months before release. Poor marketing push and low awareness. Massively overshipped to retailers. Price collapse.
AQ Interactive:
Cry On 360 - Cancelled.
Blue Dragon Plus DS - Basically no marketing, bombed.
Away DS - Basically no marketing, bombed.
Bandai Namco Games:
Blue Dragon Ikai no Kyouujuu DS - Announced a year in advance. Very little media follow up. Bits of info here and there. Publisher seems reluctant to push or raise awareness of the game's co-op functions even though it supports wireless AND Wi-Fi modes. Bomba.
At some point we have to realize, something seems to be very, very wrong. Maybe it's the way Mistwalker works with publishers, or maybe it's the way Sakaguchi handles things, but I think the conclusion is that the problem has to be with Mistwalker, and not just the publishers or developers they work with. Whatever it is, it will most likely result in Mistwalker not surviving this generation of hardware.
NeonZ
Member
The console game does have a subscription though. It's not necessary to pay anything extra to use SMB Wii's main feature.
Of course, either way, I don't believe SMB Wii will sell as well as the DS version. People just don't play 2d platformers on consoles anymore. This game has the Mario brand, but also probably will suffer from having a visual style so close to the DS game... I don't like to attempt guessing sales, but I don't think it'll even approach NSMB's sales.
LiquidMetal14
hide your water-based mammals
Really happy to see a Megaten game perform
Magicpaint
Member
Definitely seems to be a Mistwalker curse looking at it that way, but also aside from lack of marketing, they've made some really awful design decisions too. ASH had fugly sprites and art outside of the prerendered stuff, AWAY was an extremely odd concept and BD+ was an RTS-RPG that has struggled on the platform outside of the one that had the Final Fantasy name on it.duckroll said:
It just bugs me that the one time (or two times? I consider both BD and LO on 360 successes) Mistwalker found success -- of which one can largely attribute that to Microsoft's marketing push -- was with turn based RPGs. Great, that obviously means a small developer like Mistwalker should keep things relatively low risk and continue that tradition when deciding to work on the more popular platform (where turn based RPGs have also found great success), but instead they feed the platform with ultra-niche games with zero marketing and media awareness. Recipe for disaster. I can't say I feel sad for them overall when I look at such poor decisions they've made. I want Sakaguchi to succeed, but yeah, they're running out of chances here.
Pureauthor
Member
cvxfreak said:
Oh. I would have preferred they remained distinct, but, oh well.
In other news, Nintendo's stock jumped after Citigroup rated it a buy- the expectations are that Nintendo will revise its earning forecast and announce ANOTHER ds revision next year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a0krNRiQFyq8
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a0krNRiQFyq8
Pureauthor
Member
Huh. Don't see why a new DS would be needed.
I think both Sony and Nintendo are looking at the ipod business model for inspiration. Frequent revisions to the hardware allow them to mostly hold the line on pricing and still stimulate demand. I wouldn't be surprised to see new, same gen handhelds from both Sony and Nintendo every 12-18 months.
Hero of Legend
Member
schuelma said:
:lol
pseudocaesar
Member
So I seriously think the PS3's new baseline will actually settle above the Wii's from here on out, will be interesting to watch the rest of the year.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Ooh, can't wait to pick up my 1000 yen copy of Blue Dragon next month.
Hero of Legend
Member
gkrykewy said:
From now on?
Hero of Legend
Member
gkrykewy said:
Best guess: The end of the gen.
Kurosaki Ichigo said:Famitsu First Day Sales Analysis (10/08)
[NDS] Shin Megami Tensei: Strange Journey (Atlus) - 71,000 (63%)
Niiiice. Excellent first day and good sell through, hopefully it has a second in the weekend because I think its locked for a >100k first week and the first shipment is 113k.
Sinobi first day comparisons for Atlus on DS:
2007 Month 01: DS "Etrian Odyssey" - 22k
2008 Month 02: DS "Etrian Odyssey Ⅱ" - 52k
2009 Month 01: DS "Devil Survivor" - 35k
2009 Month 10: DS "Shin Megami Tensei: STRANGE JOURNEY" - 71k
Btw, Persona PSP did 65k but it was a 2-day number.
That's interesting. It's too bad he didn't provide first day sales (if he has them) for any of the PS2 games, though. I would've been interested in seeing comparisons against some of those as well as the other DS games. Either way, at least we'll get to make first week comparisons!
Magicpaint said:
I don't know about that. It's a budget series. Pretty much zero effort goes into the games and they're not advertised at all because they're just cheap quick cash releases (the opposite of stuff like Professor Layton). I'm pretty sure Level-5 must be making money off of them or they wouldn't still be releasing them, and I think the actual number of units they sell are kind of inconsequential. I view these as more like D3's Simple series -- they routinely sell practically nothing on the first day, but they're so cheap that casual buyers just pick them up over time and they bring in a profit. The Atama no Taisou games, for instance, seem to range from between 1500 to 2000 yen cheaper than Inazuma Eleven 2.
Magicpaint said:
Yup. I've said this stuff before, too -- it's my biggest frustration with how Mistwalker has operated. I feel like they have no idea what they're doing most of the time. Sakaguchi knows how to make really good turn-based RPGs, but then they make these schizo development decisions... like, okay, he commissions Brownie Brown to handle development on a Blue Dragon game for the DS. To me, the smart money says this should be a really gorgeous 2D game (think Mother 3-level visuals with Toriyama-esque sprites ala... oh, hey, how about Chrono Trigger!) which continues the BD story and keeps the BD gameplay of turn-based battles and monster groupings and the job system and really good dungeons, all just in 2D instead. But on the contrary! Brownie Brown instead makes a 3D real time strategy game, because Japan has proven they're definitely craving more of those. Then he gets another crack at it, and this time it's an... MORPG?
I just wish they'd develop the types of games they're really good at making and THEN, once they've become more established and have more brand strength, THEN expand out to try more experimental stuff. No one cares about spinoffs of non-established series. :/
duckroll said:So, based on previous Atlus releases going from first day to first week, it looks totally likely that SMT SJ will clear 100k in the first week. Depending on whether they restock over the weekend or not, it could do up to 120k possibly. Regardless, with a first week figure of 100k, as long as word of mouth stays strong, it's likely the game could do over 200k lifetime, which is fantastic for Atlus and for SMT fans worried about a possible lack of appeal for the more traditional and less mainstream style of SMT.
Yup, it's pretty exciting. Great to see it performing well. I think the game will definitely clear 100k for its opening week, but how well it does depends on whether or not Atlus can get a second shipment out. I'm not so sure if they will. If not, there's a pretty low cap on how it'll do and I'd expect to see something like 107k for the week, which would be close to a total sellout. If they do pull that off, 115-120k seems reasonable. Ultimately, I expect the game will clear 200k lifetime (I'm guessing something like 220k) as long as its first week sellout is high.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
so my "more than eo2 less than nocturne" prediction seems right, maybe a little conservative depending on the first day : first week multiplier plays out.
pseudocaesar
Member
gkrykewy said:
Well at the time I had the end of the year in my head. In no way will the PS3 overtake the Wiis LTD in Japan.
ethelred said:
Raidou 1 is a bit too old. Sinobi didn't provide first day numbers back then, instead he only compared which games sold more than others on that day. For the rest...
Persona 3 first day 93k -> first week 127k
Persona 3 Fes first day 65k -> first week 100k
Persona 4 first day 148k -> first week 211k
Persona PSP first day 65k -> first week 95k
Raidou 2 first day 50k -> first week 76k
EO2 first day 50k -> first week 85k
DevSur first day 35k -> first week 56k
Judging from that, it seems Atlus games perform pretty evenly in terms of growing from first day to first week. A first week of 110k seems about right, based on the past figures.
Dengeki is still keeping them separated, and they agree with MC in IE2B outselling IE2F.Pureauthor said:
Sep 28 - Oct 04
01./00. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 338,495 / NEW
02./00. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Kyoui no Shinryakusha Blizzard (Level 5) - 161,759 / NEW
03./00. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Kyoui no Shinryakusha Fire (Level 5) - 143,533 / NEW
04./00. [PSP] Gran Turismo (Sony) - 140,147 / NEW
05./03. [NDS] Pokemon Soul Silver (Pokemon Co.) - 114,905 / 1,148,345
06./02. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold (Pokemon Co.) - 108,800 / 1,143,912
07./00. [PSP] Macross Ultimate Frontier (Bandai Namco Games) - 72,967 / NEW
08./01. [NDS] Tomodachi Collection (Nintendo) - 67,747 / 1,289,894
09./00. [PS3] Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2 (Tecmo) - 46,328 / NEW
10./00. [PS3] Dynasty Warriors Strikeforce (Koei) - 32,800 / NEW
11./07. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 27,294 / 1,239,603
12./06. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Defenders of the Starry Sky (Square-Enix) - 23,122 / 3,971,611
13./04. [PS3] Tales of Vesperia (Bandai Namco Games) - 22,939 / 298,521
14./05. [PSP] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakkyuu Portable 4 (Konami) - 21,115 / 181,674
15./00. [PSP] Minna no Sukkiri (SCE) - 17,894 / NEW
16./00. [PSP] Trinity Universe (Idea Factory) - 13,080 / NEW
17./20. [NDS] Love Plus (Konami) - 12,565 / ?
18./12. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2nd G (BEST) (Capcom) - 11,341 / 988,388
19./09. [NDS] SaGa 2: Hihou Densetsu Goddess of Destiny (Square-Enix) - 9,239 / 136,914
20./11. [WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) - 8,619 / 901,157
Other software:
[WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo): FW - 235,000 / LTD - 3,460,000
[NDS] Inazuma Eleven (Level 5): FW - 38,000 / LTD - 421,000
-- Estimated PSP GT bundle sales: 24,000
-- Approximately 10% of Wii Fit Plus sold were with the Balance Wii Board: 35,000.
Code:
Hardware | This Week | Last Week | LTD
NDS | 59,380 | 77,316 | 27,787,665
PSP | 49,254 | 15,254 | 12,721,713
Wii | 32,030 | 10,574 | 8,657,804
PS3 | 33,628 | 43,279 | 3,692,450
X360 | 3,403 | 5,419 | 1,144,913
PS2 | 2,457 | 3,139 |
Total | 180,152 | 154,981 |I guess I'll be the first to jump the gun on Super Mario Bros. Wii. Here are all the previous mainline platform 2D entries of Mario. The titles are arranged by system and by date.
There hasn't been a 2D Mario on a Nintendo console since Yoshi's Island and even that for some (but not me) isn't considered a main entry.
Code:
Sys Title Release date First week LTD
FC Mario Bros. 09/09/83 - 1.630.000
FC Super Mario Bros. 13/09/85 - 6.810.000
FC Super Mario Bros. 2 03/06/86 - 2.650.000
FC Super Mario Bros. 3 23/10/88 - 3.840.000
SFC Super Mario World 21/11/90 - 3.550.000
SFC Super Mario All Stars 14/07/93 - 2.120.000
SFC Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island 05/08/95 - 1.770.000
GB Super Mario Land 21/04/89 - 4.190.000
GB Super Mario Land 2: Six Golden Coins 21/10/92 - 2.700.000
GB Super Mario Land 3: Wario Land 21/01/94 - 1.590.000
GBA Super Mario Advance: Super Mario Bros. 21/03/01 219.551 887.505
GBA Super Mario Advance 2: Super Mario World 14/12/01 113.183 919.234
GBA Super Mario Advance 3: Yoshi's Island 20/09/02 95.596 515.633
GBA Super Mario Advance 4: Super Mario Bros. 3 11/07/03 105.813 718.207
GBA Famicom Mini: Super Mario Bros. 14/02/04 63.894 1.280.158
GBA Famicom Mini: Mario Bros. 21/05/04 18.673 92.521
GBA Famicom Mini: Super Mario Bros. 2 10/08/04 52.705 365.456
DS New Super Mario Bros. 25/05/06 865.024 5.535.730
WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii 03/12/09 700.000 3.000.000There hasn't been a 2D Mario on a Nintendo console since Yoshi's Island and even that for some (but not me) isn't considered a main entry.
charlequin
Banned
duckroll said:So, based on previous Atlus releases going from first day to first week, it looks totally likely that SMT SJ will clear 100k in the first week. Depending on whether they restock over the weekend or not, it could do up to 120k possibly. Regardless, with a first week figure of 100k, as long as word of mouth stays strong, it's likely the game could do over 200k lifetime, which is fantastic for Atlus and for SMT fans worried about a possible lack of appeal for the more traditional and less mainstream style of SMT.
GO GO KANEKO!
My thoughts exactly!
I think this speaks very strongly to the idea that even though Persona has taken off with a life of its own, the classic SMT is still a franchise with a lot of pull in Japan and one that, I think, Atlus has done a very good job of managing.
With this performance I feel quite confident we'll see quite a few more Megaten titles on the DS before its time is through.
schuelma said:
That prediction sounds ludicrous to me. What possible reason could Nintendo have to announce another DS next year when the DSi is still doing exceptionally well and no one is actually calling for a true DS-2?
Cosmonaut X
Member
charlequin said:
I wonder whether some analysts are buying into the suggestion that Nintendo are going to start following Apple's approach, going for regular "refreshes" of platforms rather than sticking with one platform and then a generational leap after x years.
I could certainly see Nintendo releasing another DS variant in the next 1 or 2 years, but I don't expect any real kind of hardware revision - more DS Phat-to-DS Lite than DS Lite-to-DSi. A DSi Lite with a shell redesign, improved screens and battery life and perhaps some minor spec improvements (better cameras?) seems possible.