Metallix87
Member
The entire situation is very dire, and there's a real chance that Vita could hit sub-5k numbers before the end of May. Sony really needs to step up and do something pretty soon if they want to turn this disaster around.
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Media Create Sales: Week 16, 2012 (Apr 16 - Apr 22)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
The entire situation is very dire, and there's a real chance that Vita could hit sub-5k numbers before the end of May. Sony really needs to step up and do something pretty soon if they want to turn this disaster around.
AceBandage
Banned
The only thing they can do is release software. But they don't even have a single one to even announce until May and who knows when it will release...
bomba?
frankie_baby
Member
Am i right in thinking may is generally a pretty slow month? If so then this is a very very real possibility
Crisis Core (and Chain of Olympus) are million sellers in USA. Let's see what's SE next title that will achieve that.
Peace Walker wasn't developed looking only to Japan. Original forecast was 3 million sales WW.
Head to head comparison of 3DS launch onwards sales vs Vita launch onwards sales
3DS gets the price cut at week 25.
That is one flat line right there, folks. Poor Vita sent to die in it's first year on the market in Japan. I'm not going to get into future predictions because who knows what could be in the works but the current numbers certainly do not lie.
I don't expect Project Diva Next numbers to be good due to the very small Vita userbase but I also don't think that any real Miku fan with a Vita is going to wait for the PS3 version either. I think the game could launch with numbers that are in the ballpark of the Project Mirai game but then tail off pretty quickly and not show legs to any extent.
Alot depends on how the Vita does in the next couple of months. If P4G, Gundam and MGS:HD plus a key announcement or two (like Soul Sacrifice) can spark the Vita back into at least mediocrity then PD Next might end up having a decent launch.
grimshawish
Banned
Sony have to just relaunch, hold back on releases and pay developers to develop. Then launch around one date.
I just think they will have difficulty otherwise. A price drop might work (but is it viable business wise?), but if done right now, they don't have games that will sell the system anyway. So it means they can't just up-production and use economies of scale to sell cheaper - instead they are basically selling current stock atm...
If they do a price drop AND a relaunch...it might work - it won't be huge, but I think over its life time the system will do 'decent'.
Alternatively they could launch another redesign on the PSP and focus on it. Dropping the Vita unceremoniously (what will that do to customer loyalty I wonder? Maybe they can over freebies? (but it won't really be able to make up the loss to the customers)) might just be the best thing to do. PSP is selling well, it could probably do with a strong up-date.
Maybe begin a transition from UMD's to the new Vita card with a PSP that runs both devices, then make all new PSP games sell only with the new device (forcing customers to chose to update or leave PSP - its risky, but in the long term were talking about Sony disappearing for a generation if they don't act now - the customers/companies will leave eventually).
At least this way they can build up a customer base for the cards and maybe look back to the Vita project in the future?
IDK, I just think its not a simple fix, and none of the fixes above are simple. One is a relaunch that might fail, making the problem worse as public perception of the product worsens, one is a 'walk away' move that will hang out a lot of customers (right sure the fan boys will find excuses, but a lot of people will think twice about any future Sony handheld, or console) or do what they should have done and started moving the PSP forward.
Am one to think Sony/Microsoft should not launch entirely new consoles soon, but update there current ones (almost Gameboy>Gameboy Colour) - big changes to how they work and maybe upgrade certain games on the system, but no drastic change (the economy is not for a new system I believe, but we've seen with Kinect it is there for 'updates' to current systems)
So I think they should have done this with Vita originally. I don't think its too late now, and there is a chance they'll be able to run two markets - a higher and lower model - over a long period of time, and eventually Vita might do okay.
/rant
Sammy Samusu
Member
Looks like PSP will soon join the four digits club.
(this is actually good news)
(this is actually good news)
Well, not for Sony, obviously.
Burning Justice
the superior princess
Wow @ Fire Emblem.
Wonder how much of that was due to the Sacred Stones Ambassador release. They had to have picked up some new fans by doing that...
Wonder how much of that was due to the Sacred Stones Ambassador release. They had to have picked up some new fans by doing that...
Metallix87
Member
In some ways, it may be. Declining PSP sales might convince some devs to move their late-life PSP titles to Vita, though if Vita's sales are absolutely dead by then, they may be more likely to move those projects to 3DS.
Well, that's my point. Not like PSP's decline has been Vita's gain.
Metallix87
Member
That's because the software isn't there. If Sony had a steady stream of titles coming out, even if they're not big titles, the momentum could grow from there to take advantage of the decline of PSP. It's all going to come down to whether the developers on PSP move their titles and assets to 3DS or Vita in the coming weeks and months. I'm not saying that Sony won't suffer as a result, but that there's a possibility that it ends up being beneficial to them by the end of 2012.
timetokill
Banned
Amazing sales for Fire Emblem. Really impressive.
Souldriver
Member
The Vita situation is just sad.
Such a beautiful piece of hardware. What did Sony expect to happen when releasing the most expensive handheld on the market with little software support? That the OLED screen alone would sell the device? :-/
At this point we can only hope for a PS3 (and PSP) like scenario where Nintendo completely dominates the first few years of the generation, but slowly and steadily the more future-proof Sony hardware starts to gain some traction and trucks along for a while after Nintendo has decided to jump to next gen.
Such a beautiful piece of hardware. What did Sony expect to happen when releasing the most expensive handheld on the market with little software support? That the OLED screen alone would sell the device? :-/
At this point we can only hope for a PS3 (and PSP) like scenario where Nintendo completely dominates the first few years of the generation, but slowly and steadily the more future-proof Sony hardware starts to gain some traction and trucks along for a while after Nintendo has decided to jump to next gen.
AceBandage
Banned
Same thing they thought with the PSP.
That people and developers would love it simply because it had Playstation in the name.
Metallix87
Member
Unlikely, actually, given that the sales are just SO much more abysmal this time around.
That's the case by a huge margin right now. Something inevitable isn't scary, unless I've misunderstood you.
For anyone who expects/wants Vita to be a viable and competitive system, it should absolutely be scary. The 3DS just sold more from January through mid-April then Vita will likely sell in total through two full holiday seasons. That's actually pretty preposterous if Vita is supposed to be an actual competitor to 3DS.
Of course, for those who've already given up on Vita, then yeah - there's nothing scary about it.
BassForever
Member
I never could have imagined FE:A would do as well as it did. And if the rumored 30k bundle sold online currently isn't in that number it'll be even more impressive. Wonder if Nintendo will give it the same kind of marketing treatment worldwide as they have in Japan could become one of the biggest FE titles ever.
And Vita continues to not Vita, honestly it's really hard to find anything new to say about it. Nothing major coming out anytime soon and it's obvious Sony doesn't have much to show or else they'd have to at this point. Vita is not selling and there really is no reason to save megaton announcements for E3/TGS.
And Vita continues to not Vita, honestly it's really hard to find anything new to say about it. Nothing major coming out anytime soon and it's obvious Sony doesn't have much to show or else they'd have to at this point. Vita is not selling and there really is no reason to save megaton announcements for E3/TGS.
It's such an incredible blunder. Huge. I never could have imagined such mismanagement. Like...I just can't wrap my head around it. I imagine back some time in early 2010, all the execs were huddled together in a dimly lit conference room at some ungodly hour, charts and graphs sprawled out over the table, a thick cloud of cigarette smoke hovering above, their coffee mugs empty and their minds at their wits end, when somebody, maybe Kaz, gets a twinkle in his eye and bolts upright as everyone turns to watch him say, "What if...guys, what if we make a powerful but exorbitantly expensive portable...leave no room for price cuts without taking painful losses...launch the thing months after our main competition has a strong foothold...force consumers to buy additional required memory cards...and let the software dry up for 6 months to a year."
A moment's pause hovers over them as they all look upon the speaker, their mouths agape, the clock audibly ticking away the seconds, and then, all at once, roaring applause, thunderous cheering, tears stream down the faces of execs as they take in the idea, people rush the man with the plan, hoist him up on their shoulders, and go gallivanting off into the night.
Really, I have no idea what they could have possibly been thinking. I wonder what they're thinking now. Oy.
Code:
Famitsu numbers; do not include all software, only those whose LTD numbers we have available.
3rd party software sales by generation (rounded to the nearest 100k)
PS2 165.3
XBX 1.5
GCN 7.1
SDC 6.1
(total home: 180.0)
GBA 24.0
BWS 1.4
NGP 0.0
(total handheld: 25.4)
Total: 205.4 (214.1 if you include Bandai, SNK and SEGA that were 1st party on their systems)
PS3 33.4
WII 15.1
360 7.2
(total home: 55.7)
NDS 80.6
PSP 63.5
(total handheld: 144.1)
Total: 199.8But it had the greatest launch lineup of all time! OF ALL TIME
I think it's probably doing about what they expected.
I went by Wikipedia's classification. (Wikipedia, I know...)
As for the the NGP, I only one week sales for one third party game: http://homepage2.nifty.com/~NOV/d570.html
InsaneZero
Member
Ironically, if they spaced out the launch lineup and distributed those titles over a longer period of time, the Vita might be in a better state than it is now.
Until you said this, I actually thought NGP was referring to the Vita.
>_>
(didn't read the bit about generations)
Souldriver
Member
Lol, that was entertaining.
Reminds me of a comic I saw the other day about Iwata deciding to name the new mario game "New Super Mario Bros", and the other guy says "that's stupid, because what if we wanna make a sequel later... LETS DO IT!"
True, but the profit margin on the memory card has got be huge. I figure that would be easier for Sony to accept and absorb than dropping the price on the unit. I guess it all comes down to taking the loss or potentially being Dreamcasted. With numbers the Vita is pulling, I don't think being another DC is out of the realm of possibilities.
TBH, it is the price of the Vita and the memory card that is keeping me away. If Sony changes that equation, I'll be a happy camper.
There should be a few others although Yumekobo and ADK were always close to SNK.
http://gamedatamuseum.web.fc2.com/ngp.htm
Not that would made any difference.
As per wiki classification I sort of understand why the writer thought it was an right thing to do.
Still bizzare if you ask me.
A strategy to save this, I hope. I hope they have a good long term strategy and that's...well, easier said than done.
Conrad Link
Member
3DS has really taken control of Japan. Nintendo just so know what they're doing. Slow start had people wondering then they just laughed and hit the booster win switch. :O
Wii U is gonna be interesting, can they strike again in a similar fashion?
Wii U is gonna be interesting, can they strike again in a similar fashion?
'NGP', how appropriate. You couldn't make this stuff up.
But the huge profit margin of the memory card must be to offset losses Sony are making on the main unit. Why else would they make such a boneheaded move as releasing a system requiring a non-included proprietary accessory? It's the hidden cost of the system. Bundling a memory card would suddenly turn Vita into a big loss maker, and Sony can't afford that right now.
Regarding Dreamcast, that system was actually performing a hell of a lot better than Vita is. It's Sega mismanagement going back years that really killed it. If Vita finds itself in the same position it will be a true testament to the scale of Sony's ineptitude. It's the successor to the PSP, not the damn Saturn.
It will be interesting to see if they will, or can, bring their current 3DS aggressiveness to the console market. Wii was pretty mismanaged, but seeing how on the ball Nintendo are right now makes me think they're going to pull some very smart moves with the Wii U.
By Fall they should be.
This is a MC thread but let's not get too myopic such that we miss the bigger picture of Japan's sales within the worldwide market. I'm sure Sony's plan was not to fail miserably in Japan with the Vita but they had to know rough times were ahead within their knowledge of release schedules and what was in the works and they chose to launch anyway.
And the reason they chose to launch anyway is because Sony's strengths in software these days, such as they are, really aren't focused on what's popular in Japan and haven't been for some time. I've made the point before that I think that Sony has traded strength (development dollars is more accurate) in Japan for strength in territories outside Japan and has found some success doing it. The best example: We learned this week that Uncharted series is now at 17 million shipped. That's an accomplishment for a series that is PS3 (ok a little bit of PSV also) exclusive (we do remember how the PS3 started, right?) And interestingly enough it was the release of Uncharted back in late 2007 that actually opened my eyes as to the potential of the PS3 and it was one of my favorite games of that holiday season. (As was R&C: Tools of Destruction!)
Certainly it wasn't only Uncharted that helped pull the PS3 back from the nearly dead but Uncharted + other quality Sony IP's (Infamous, Resistance, God of War, Killzone, GT) and key third party support did.
I certainly don't know which IP (or even IF their will be an IP) will be the one to spark the Vita but I have to think that Sony has the software support to at least lead the way. They've already done a good job at launch with Uncharted, Hot Shots, Gravity Rush, Unit 13, Wipeout, etc. which are all games which show the potential of the system. If Sony can keep that up (and we still have the Western launch of Gravity Rush, Sound Shapes, Resistance and Little Big Planet this year as just the stuff that's known right now) and continue to get some key third party support then the Vita might not set the charts on fire but it will continue to sell and hopefully reach a healthy market penetration. At least in places not named Japan. =(
Of course not much of what I've discussed here helps the situation in Japan based on what we know right now. And that's a direct result of that lack of software that appeals to Japanese tastes, mainly, with pricing and popularity of other platforms being secondary problems. The pricing will be fixed, eventually. The software is a tougher problem but perhaps Sony showing off Soul Sacrifice on May 10 is a sign that they are at least aware of the problem and doing everything they can possibly do to fix it. At this point I doubt it will be enough for the short term but I'm at least going to keep an open mind. For the long term I still can't conceive of the Vita being an outright failure. The hardware is too good, too developer friendly and offers cheap enough development costs that at the very least it will always have a niche.
And the reason they chose to launch anyway is because Sony's strengths in software these days, such as they are, really aren't focused on what's popular in Japan and haven't been for some time. I've made the point before that I think that Sony has traded strength (development dollars is more accurate) in Japan for strength in territories outside Japan and has found some success doing it. The best example: We learned this week that Uncharted series is now at 17 million shipped. That's an accomplishment for a series that is PS3 (ok a little bit of PSV also) exclusive (we do remember how the PS3 started, right?) And interestingly enough it was the release of Uncharted back in late 2007 that actually opened my eyes as to the potential of the PS3 and it was one of my favorite games of that holiday season. (As was R&C: Tools of Destruction!)
Certainly it wasn't only Uncharted that helped pull the PS3 back from the nearly dead but Uncharted + other quality Sony IP's (Infamous, Resistance, God of War, Killzone, GT) and key third party support did.
I certainly don't know which IP (or even IF their will be an IP) will be the one to spark the Vita but I have to think that Sony has the software support to at least lead the way. They've already done a good job at launch with Uncharted, Hot Shots, Gravity Rush, Unit 13, Wipeout, etc. which are all games which show the potential of the system. If Sony can keep that up (and we still have the Western launch of Gravity Rush, Sound Shapes, Resistance and Little Big Planet this year as just the stuff that's known right now) and continue to get some key third party support then the Vita might not set the charts on fire but it will continue to sell and hopefully reach a healthy market penetration. At least in places not named Japan. =(
Of course not much of what I've discussed here helps the situation in Japan based on what we know right now. And that's a direct result of that lack of software that appeals to Japanese tastes, mainly, with pricing and popularity of other platforms being secondary problems. The pricing will be fixed, eventually. The software is a tougher problem but perhaps Sony showing off Soul Sacrifice on May 10 is a sign that they are at least aware of the problem and doing everything they can possibly do to fix it. At this point I doubt it will be enough for the short term but I'm at least going to keep an open mind. For the long term I still can't conceive of the Vita being an outright failure. The hardware is too good, too developer friendly and offers cheap enough development costs that at the very least it will always have a niche.
charlequin
Banned
What makes you think they'll have one?
Honestly, I predicted that Sony's next handheld would look a lot like this, simply because there wasn't anywhere else for it to really go. If anything, their hardware engineering and pricing were better than my expectations.
This would make me very happy.
Almost!
Looking at the above, it seems not by much...lol
perfectchaos007
Member
I wonder how Fire Emblem 3DS will do in the states...
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Nope, next will be Mario Tennis. 500k+