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Why are folks taking YSO's predictions as gospel? They've been pretty wrong before.
I mean a decline was inevitable to me even though Duckroll suggested otherwise. But I am just surprised that the PS4 version is keeping so close to 3DS despite the HUGE gulf in the audience on both platforms.Potentially seeing a decline to somewhere above DQVII but below DQVIII. Nevermind DQIX.
Does Japan have game rental stores or something similar?
I mean a decline was inevitable to me even though Duckroll suggested otherwise. But I am just surprised that the PS4 version is keeping so close to 3DS despite the HUGE gulf in the audience on both platforms.
Why are folks taking YSO's predictions as gospel? They've been pretty wrong before.
Yeah, i dont understand how thats possible. Is Japan starting to care about HD visuals now?
Yeah, it baffles me. Every week we have people talking about them like a sales report just came out. They've been way off many times.
Sinobi tends to be accurate. On the flip, his current expectations would be... a bad result.
What are his expectations ?
I actually thought Sinobi was a member here, but now that I look closer I see that it's not exactly spelled the same...
"Only 90"? "Surprisingly exclusive"? The console with the highest number of 85+ games is the Xbox 360, with 184. Over 8% of these were added during 2013, so I'd argue it was relevant until then. So we're talking about 8 years of releases to hit 180 such titles (or if you'd prefer, 7 years to hit 164). PS4 is at 90 titles in 3.5 years, so that strongly suggests it's getting great games at a faster rate than any previous platform.So I went to look up a counter example, but then I noticed there are only 90 PS4 games with an 85 or above, and like less than a third of those are $60 retail games from this generation, so if it can get in that surprisingly exclusive club, I agree it should be fine.
360: 184
PS3: 177
PS2: 144
XBX: 106
PS4: 90
GCN: 65
PS1: 56
XB1: 53
NDS: 48
Wii: 43
GBA: 35
3DS: 34
N64: 29
PSP: 29
WIU: 28
SDC: 26
PSV: 19
In the US shipping almost never exceeds a month for China-sourced electronics. Though the new Panamax size has helped, it's almost always a better plan to land goods on the West Coast (21 days shipping) and use rail cross-country. And there is little quantization of delivery from carriers. Stores operate on retail week or every-other, yes, but as far as freight companies are concerned the enduser is the DC. And they schedule ad hoc.Note that shipping time to other regions (like US east coast and Europe) can exceed one month. So while production should be steady (not a given considering shortage of parts may fluctuate as well) actual stock arriving at stores globally at a given time varies depending on when allocations are put to further away markets.
The predictions are to sell 2m, though.I can't believe te first mainline game in the series will sell just 1M FW
800k PS4, 3DS down from previous expectations and potentially at or around a million.
It'd be a really big drop in total for the series for FW performance.
800k PS4, 3DS down from previous expectations and potentially at or around a million.
It'd be a really big drop in total for the series for FW performance.
I don't what's really a test for what. I don't think DQXI is going to have much of a tail on any platform, its a JRPG and, bizarrely, they moved *backwards* from DQIX by removing the multiplayer component entirely. So used or not, after the first few weeks (and pre-launch weeks, ala now) most people interested are going to jump in and that's it. Used copies vs. shipped is going to potentially result in another mess like FFXV, though, so that will depend on SE's plans here vs. how much they can get retailers to buy.
From there, as per sinobi's analysis, others (probably 3DS) are just content to wait for the switch version. 3DS in general has also slowed its ability to move software in its old age.
At the end DQXI didnt make much less money DQ compared to DQIX - the PS4 version almost costs twice as much as DQIX was on DS. People play DQ all the time on mobile or as the MMO with DQX....DQXI will end up on Switch next year, in addition to a western release and probably a mobile version after that.
Obv. the 5m some people like the Enterbrain/Famitsu chef expected at some point arent happening.....but it will sell 3-4m as it should.
At the end DQXI didnt make much less money DQ compared to DQIX - the PS4 version almost costs twice as much as DQIX was on DS. People play DQ all the time on mobile or as the MMO with DQX....DQXI will end up on Switch next year, in addition to a western release and probably a mobile version after that.
Obv. the 5m some people like the Enterbrain/Famitsu chef expected at some point arent happening.....but it will sell 3-4m as it should.
It only feels this way because the 3DS version was a later consideration. They probably expected much stronger market penetration for the PS4 but when the userbase didn't grow big enough to exclusively host a mainline DQ they had to consider a 3DS version. If the game had been conceived originally as a 3DS title it'd have been out much earlier.SE dropped the ball by not having the game out by last year, I think. Sure, the PS4 is able to sell software much better than it could 1-2 years ago, but not enough to mitigate the hit that the 3DS has taken in that regard, especially now that its successor is on the market. They really just took too long to start development.
It only feels this way because the 3DS version was a later consideration. They probably expected much stronger market penetration for the PS4 but when the userbase didn't grow big enough to exclusively host a mainline DQ they had to consider a 3DS version. If the game had been conceived originally as a 3DS title it'd have been out much earlier.
And as a general point, I think we shouldn't draw too many conclusions based off of predictions. I too think this might fall a little short of recent DQ standards but I hope I'm wrong and we see great numbers.
It only feels this way because the 3DS version was a later consideration. They probably expected much stronger market penetration for the PS4 but when the userbase didn't grow big enough to exclusively host a mainline DQ they had to consider a 3DS version. If the game had been conceived originally as a 3DS title it'd have been out much earlier.
And as a general point, I think we shouldn't draw too many conclusions based off of predictions. I too think this might fall a little short of recent DQ standards but I hope I'm wrong and we see great numbers.
SE dropped the ball by not having the game out by last year, I think. Sure, the PS4 is able to sell software much better than it could 1-2 years ago, but not enough to mitigate the hit that the 3DS has taken in that regard, especially now that its successor is on the market. They really just took too long to start development.
The idea that they were genuinely going to let the 3DS come and go without a new mainline DQ game is honestly astonishing.
At the same time it almost assuredly cost a lot more to make, especially when you consider they made two entirely different versions of the game.
But probably needed more than twice the money to develop. I doubt it will bring more cash than DQIX, especially since it most likely won't be as successful in the west.
That would have been an extremely poor result for SE domestically. FFXV level.I expected DQXI to open somewhere between 500-600k on PS4 and 800k-900k on 3DS. I know we were talking about predictions and not actual estimates but still I would be really surprised if the PS4 version opens closer to a million.
I expected DQXI to open somewhere between 500-600k on PS4 and 800k-900k on 3DS. I know we were talking about predictions and not actual estimates but still I would be really surprised if the PS4 version opens closer to a million.
As noted above, 3DS was a late addition. This was a PS4-only title at conception but the PS4 failed to make headway and even though it has managed to achieve respectable software potential for its base, its ceiling performance is generally low and there'd have been no way to actually sustain DQ. Rather than discussing coming short of DQVII/DQVIII/DQIX, we'd be talking about DQIII.
The realities of the market became clear after the first-into-second year of the PS4, and by then making it to market with both the PS4 and 3DS versions wasn't going to be possible until now. Games take time to make, especially those that are greelit at the last moment. Problem is that in arriving so late, the title has come at a time when the 3DS is starting to wind down and its successor has already hit the market.
This is why the Switch version was probably added even before its performance was known, they needed more sources of sales because the current platforms were expected to underperform based to some degree.
What was PS4 supposed to be?
Was the thought "Wii U is doing so bad, PS4 is a more attractive device than PS3, so PS4 will do PS3+, eating into Wii's numbers?"
But we're talking 2012 and earlier, right? So the Wii U stuff is probably not pertinent.
So just, it's more attractive than PS3?
Or is there some other reason to expect PS4 to have performed better?
I mean..yeah the budget for both games were likely higher, than again Level 5 working for a couple years on the DQIX probably wasnt that cheap either especially after they had to scrap the initial gameplay vision.
Thats just the way it is with more powerful hardware and higher ambitions - all the Switch games Nintendo develops will also have a higher budget than their DS/3DS games of the last two generations while not selling much more if at all.
We already saw it with Pokemon S/M there are just so many games of this type that can be sold in this market environment. I still would assume the 3DS version to have longer legs and to chart again for the Holidays.
That would have been an extremely poor result for SE domestically. FFXV level.
What was PS4 supposed to be?
Was the thought "Wii U is doing so bad, PS4 is a more attractive device than PS3, so PS4 will do PS3+, eating into Wii's numbers?"
But we're talking 2012 and earlier, right? So the Wii U stuff is probably not pertinent.
So just, it's more attractive than PS3?
Or is there some other reason to expect PS4 to have performed better?
"Only 90"? "Surprisingly exclusive"? The console with the highest number of 85+ games is the Xbox 360, with 184. Over 8% of these were added during 2013, so I'd argue it was relevant until then. So we're talking about 8 years of releases to hit 180 such titles (or if you'd prefer, 7 years to hit 164). PS4 is at 90 titles in 3.5 years, so that strongly suggests it's getting great games at a faster rate than any previous platform.
Which is why SE eventually came to their senses. Somewhere all the chain someone went wait, this is a bad idea.It's pretty obvious by making the game exclusive to PS4 originally that domestic sales prioritization came second to potential global growth, by that meaning western penetration. The strategy makes sense when the game itself possesses some western appeal intrinsically (MH, for example) but I'm at a loss as to why SE would make such a gamble with a franchise as deeply embedded in Japan as DQ.
It only feels this way because the 3DS version was a later consideration. They probably expected much stronger market penetration for the PS4 but when the userbase didn't grow big enough to exclusively host a mainline DQ they had to consider a 3DS version. If the game had been conceived originally as a 3DS title it'd have been out much earlier.
And as a general point, I think we shouldn't draw too many conclusions based off of predictions. I too think this might fall a little short of recent DQ standards but I hope I'm wrong and we see great numbers.
Wait when it was finally revealed everyone was saying the ps4 version was the after thought and holding up the 3DS version which was farther ahead. But lately it's been described as the opposite. When did this change?
Yeah, it baffles me. Every week we have people talking about them like a sales report just came out. They've been way off many times.
I think it mostly makes sense:
1- the presumption, despite Nintendo's attempts to make a device attractive to Japan, that consoles are "doomed" there and mobile is the ~only future, is a common one (and for them, partly a self-fulfilling presumption), and not without reason.
2-After Vita, Sony is probably never going to make a device with Japan in particular in mind again: they make PlayStation for the rest of the world where it does well. I'm sure that many developers would prefer Japan be on the same page wrt PlayStation.
3-PlayStation has an ecosystem where new forms of monetization are more tried and true than on Nintendo portables.
4-Developers often simply want to develop for hardware with more grunt or that's stationary (Horii's professed reason for going PS4).
What I don't get is expecting PS4 to have done markedly better than it did in Japan. I guess, as suggested above, it is a case of wanting to make it true that it did? And then on that failing to happen, things like DQ going 3DS happened?
I mean, that is, iirc, the attitude Nomura or someone at Square expressed about PS4, but I didn't think we took that at face value...
What's the last time they've been way off? Monster Hunter Stories comes in mind and that was way back. They are close with almost everything.
Interesting.Horii actually said people would get bored of mobile and go back to home consoles.
Mario Maker 3DS doubled their predictions.
Didn't they predict like 60k for ARMS? That'd be the most recent one I could think of.What's the last time they've been way off? Monster Hunter Stories comes in mind and that was way back. They are close with almost everything.