Just last month they predicted less than 75k for Arms, but still your point is correct.
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Just last month they predicted less than 75k for Arms, but still your point is correct.
DarkLordMalik
Member
I have a hard time believing their this week's prediction. That would be quite the attach rate on PS4.
BronzeWolf
Banned
When are we getting numbers for Splatoon 2 or Switch? Before next media create?
DarkLordMalik
Member
That would be Famitsu/Dengeki, I believe.
Before we start searching predictions one by one, when they are off is when preorders don't reflect the real situation before of last moment building momentum. Arms, NieR, Nioh and are in there.
But for every wrong prediction they make I can find you 10 more they were spot on and for far more important titles.
Seems like some heavy courting on Sony's part to me. Callbacks to the incredibly successful PS1-PS2 partnership between the two companies and a marketing deal or two was probably enough to do the trick.
Margin of Error would be more interesting. A difference of 10% either way for the individual SKUs of DQXI would be more sales than like 90% of titles get in their lifetime.
The Last One
Member
A 2 million opening is about what I expected for DQ XI. The split is definitely surprising though, maybe they're a bit off with that.
You expected DQXI PS4 to do less than FFXV? Lol
To be fair that was more plausible when people were expecting the Switch version at the same time.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Check the predictions to see I am not alone here on GAF
DQXI on the PS4 really blew away my expectations. At the beginning of the year I was thinking it would release towards November/December on PS4 and Switch and expected that to suppress PS4 sales. In the end the PS4 version will end up biggest game on the PS4, its difficult to picture MHW on a console doing more than 1 million at launch in Japan(although MH will have more legs than any SP RPG even if it lacks to portable local).
I seem to recall it being 99x,xxx on Famitsu, perhaps more on Media Create, but at least by now it's likely crossed 1 million.
I mean that is still 20% of the userbase, and considering that console gaming is supposed to be 'dead', that's quite a showing.
same, unless they add voice acting and stuff. As of now I don't see much appeal tho.
How did DQ8 do in the west?
I can't see it doing more than that. Especially if not every version gets brought over.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
I think they will because this will surely open 1.5 million plus???
DQVIII did just north of a million IIRC, similar to DQIX.
If the prediction is right and Japan does 800-850k retail alone, I doubt 2m is out of the question.
The first game did ~1.7-1.8m total in Japan right? And WW it was most recently 4.8 million.
Despite all the Japan hype, do we know if Splatoon did better in NA than Japan?
hm, it can cross that with all versions imo, but definitely not the PS4 alone unless changes are made. Or there's crazy advertising.
Aye, GAF as a whole has really had its head in the sand when it comes to the strength of the PS4 version's preorders
I dont think thats true...most ppl expected more of the 3DS version, but PS4 is more or less in line with what you would expect from the biggest release on that plattform.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
I wonder how much if a factor recruiting was for putting DQ11 on PS4, if you want the best talent in japan it would probably be easier to recruit them with ps4 and UE4 than with 3ds tech. I also think this plays a role in why SE announces games so early, they werent being subtle when they were recruiting for FF7 remake.
it will be truly unprecedented
Well we went from a very succesful Wii DS PSP PS3 generation to basically PS4 Switch. Both offer different kind of experiences and there is room for both. Releasing DQ for PS4 will do the market good. There isnt much else to work with besides mobile anyway.
Weak performance on 3ds DQXI version kind of falls on Nintendo imo. SE is pushing both the PS4 version and 3ds version in their own ads.
Sony has done a lot to promote the game, meanwhile Nintendo is basically doing nothing on the social side.
Just look at the Playstation channel vs the Nintendo one in the past 2 months. 5 videos vs 1. Furthermore, Sony's got high quality promotions too such as:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuPHlZ7JUd8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5XR1ZtNVE0
... while Nintendo's is a direct which only reaches the hardcore
Nintendo looks like a bad partner in comparison. ¯\_(ツ
_/¯
Sony has done a lot to promote the game, meanwhile Nintendo is basically doing nothing on the social side.
Just look at the Playstation channel vs the Nintendo one in the past 2 months. 5 videos vs 1. Furthermore, Sony's got high quality promotions too such as:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuPHlZ7JUd8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5XR1ZtNVE0
... while Nintendo's is a direct which only reaches the hardcore
Nintendo looks like a bad partner in comparison. ¯\_(ツ
_/¯DQXI PS4 developed by DQX team (Orca inc. team 1) that was using Crystal tools (witn Maya, XSI, and Photoshop plugin) in DQX, the same team now move to UE4 with I presume, the same plugins. (doesn't know shit about game development tools, sorry if I'm said something really stupid here)
I think they can handle HD console game fine, DQX even have 4K resolution with some PC mumbo jumbo graphic setting.
(DQX now on Orca inc. team 2, younger blood I guess.)
That's true, but keep in mind that Sony could have a marketing deal for the game. They do it all the time for big Western multiplats, so I don't see why they wouldn't do the same for Dragon Quest.
I also think Nintendo might be saving their co-marketing budget for the Switch version.
YSO could be wrong with DQXI as Chris mentioned, they can't account how interest might just jump after the game was released, such things happened with NiOh, Nier and Arms.
The difference of course is that all of those are essentially new IPs, Dragon Quest is a 30 year old franchise as such its easier to predict week one sales.
I do however think they may be wrong, mainly on the 3DS version, that one is likely to get a larger shipment, it has a larger userbase to sell and its much better priced, its the kind of casual pick up you could see over the weekend, while for the PS4 version it'll mostly be on preorders.
I've seen the PS4 rank consistently higher than the 3DS version on every retailer that show preorder data, PS4 owners are more likely to preorder a game than 3DS owners but still, the 3DS is definetly dissapointing on that regard, even if DQ appeals to the demographic that doesn't preorder games both versions are doing well below predecesors.
Still though, let's see early impressions startng from people that somehow get it on Friday are very positive, as are from the people that get it digital on midnight, lets see that translate to fisrt day sales on Saturday.
Say first week shipment for the PS4 version is 1.1m, just like for FFXV, while the 3DS gets 1.5m, now lets say day one sales are something like 700k on PS4 and 800k on 3DS, PS4 are mostly preorders, while 3DS gets a healthy ammount of casual people.
Now moving to Sunday if word keeps spreading from these audience, lets say PS4 version does an additional 200k-300k, price of that one will limit huge sales later on, while the 3DS version could sell an aditional 500k-600k as units will certainly be there and price is favorable.
Dragon Quest is nearly immune from second hand sales early on, so unless the game is panned that won't happen, its not like second hand is new its been forever and its never been an issue for the games.
I also wouldn't bet on no multiplayer aspects hurting it, as its no series tradition either and its not like single player games can't have a good long term performance, specially if they're well received, just look at Nier and Zelda.
The difference of course is that all of those are essentially new IPs, Dragon Quest is a 30 year old franchise as such its easier to predict week one sales.
I do however think they may be wrong, mainly on the 3DS version, that one is likely to get a larger shipment, it has a larger userbase to sell and its much better priced, its the kind of casual pick up you could see over the weekend, while for the PS4 version it'll mostly be on preorders.
I've seen the PS4 rank consistently higher than the 3DS version on every retailer that show preorder data, PS4 owners are more likely to preorder a game than 3DS owners but still, the 3DS is definetly dissapointing on that regard, even if DQ appeals to the demographic that doesn't preorder games both versions are doing well below predecesors.
Still though, let's see early impressions startng from people that somehow get it on Friday are very positive, as are from the people that get it digital on midnight, lets see that translate to fisrt day sales on Saturday.
Say first week shipment for the PS4 version is 1.1m, just like for FFXV, while the 3DS gets 1.5m, now lets say day one sales are something like 700k on PS4 and 800k on 3DS, PS4 are mostly preorders, while 3DS gets a healthy ammount of casual people.
Now moving to Sunday if word keeps spreading from these audience, lets say PS4 version does an additional 200k-300k, price of that one will limit huge sales later on, while the 3DS version could sell an aditional 500k-600k as units will certainly be there and price is favorable.
Dragon Quest is nearly immune from second hand sales early on, so unless the game is panned that won't happen, its not like second hand is new its been forever and its never been an issue for the games.
I also wouldn't bet on no multiplayer aspects hurting it, as its no series tradition either and its not like single player games can't have a good long term performance, specially if they're well received, just look at Nier and Zelda.
Weak performance on 3ds DQXI version kind of falls on Nintendo imo. SE is pushing both the PS4 version and 3ds version in their own ads.
Sony has done a lot to promote the game, meanwhile Nintendo is basically doing nothing on the social side.
Just look at the Playstation channel vs the Nintendo one in the past 2 months. 5 videos vs 1. Furthermore, Sony's got high quality promotions too such as:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuPHlZ7JUd8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5XR1ZtNVE0
... while Nintendo's is a direct which only reaches the hardcore
Nintendo looks like a bad partner in comparison. ¯_(ツ
They are making bundles aren't they.
They are, which makes the lack of effort in communicating it that much more baffling.
- [SWI] Splatoon 2 - 1020
- [3DS] Layton's Mystery Journey - 73
- [PS4] Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age - 38
- [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Koko, Dokonan Desu? - 29
- [3DS] Hey! Pikmin - 25
- [PS4] UNDER NIGHT IN-BIRTH Exe:Late[st] - 14
- [3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot - 11
- [3DS] Monster Hunter XX - 10
- [SWI] Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star - 8
- [3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X - 8
- [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition - 7
- [SWI] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 7
- [PSV] World Election - 6
- [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege - 6
- [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition - 6
- [SWI] Arms - 6
- [3DS] Ever Oasis - 6
- [3DS] The Alliance Alive - 6
- [3DS] Radiant Historia: Perfect Chronology - 5
- [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo - 5
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time - 708
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time - 621
[PS4] Gran Turismo Sport - 83
[3DS] The Snack World - 45
[3DS] The Great Ace Attorney 2 - 36
[PS4] New Everybody's Golf - 35
[3DS] Etrian Mystery Dungeon 2 - 28
[SWI] Monster Hunter XX Nintendo Switch ver. - 26
[PS4] Nights of Azure 2 - 26
[PSV] Nights of Azure 2 - 25
[PS4] Sen no Kiseki 3 - 15
[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei: Strange Joruney Redux - 11
[PS4] Crash Bandicoot N.sane Trilogy - 11
[PS4] Star Wars: Battlefront 2 - 11
[PS4] The Evil Within 2 - 10
Easy there on the double negatives buddy.
Edit: Maybe Nintendo doesn't feel any need to market DQ on the 3ds. They could go all out on the marketing for the Switch version whenever it's released.
I'd think it's best to wait and see what other retailers (Rakuten / Tsutaya) show and just get a first picture by looking at all of them. Comgnet weekly charts can be strangely off sometimes. Actually, and this is something I should've probably asked a few days ago: Chris1964, did retailers blogs talk about brand new Switch customers buying other games alongside Splatoon 2 for this week-end?
Now, if early reports with both Splatoon 2 and hardware sales help us including non-Splatoon 2 software sales as well somehow that'd be great, but I doubt it'll happen
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
Member
First Week at COMG
NSW Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 452 pt / 280.229
NSW ARMS Arms - 154 pt / 122.007
NSW The Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild - 202 pt / 193.060
NSW 1-2-Switch - 133 pt / 82.392
NSW Splatoon 2 - 1020 pt
NSW Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 452 pt / 280.229
NSW ARMS Arms - 154 pt / 122.007
NSW The Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild - 202 pt / 193.060
NSW 1-2-Switch - 133 pt / 82.392
NSW Splatoon 2 - 1020 pt
NintendosBooger
Member
Nintendo looks like a bad partner in comparison. ¯_(ツ
Partner lol. SE was all set and happy to have Nintendo holding nothing but its **** in hand before they saw DQ couldn't sell on the PS4 alone.
The initial discussion was about how much Nintendo ships every month which is based on what reaches the customers. However the amount of units produced per months is not equal to the units available to customers as the latter depends on the allocation each region gets with different shipping times that necessarily distort the statistics. It's hard to avoid units being available to customers a calendar months after being produced. To go back to the initial discussion, hardware shipment to coincidence the launch of Splatoon 2 globally doesn't require e.g. cutting shipment to Japan now; on the contrary Japan could see (to keep this simple) all hardware produced half a week ago, US all from 3 weeks ago, Europe all from a month ago etc. and all could coincidence the same release time of today. In turn that would make the statistics seem like Nintendo vastly increased production for that month where in reality only the allocation changed.
If YSO prediction is correct, Splatoon 2 might be over 1 million in Japan with digital during it's launch week.
While for the rest of the World it should pass a million by the end of the month easily.
It's 5th on Amazon US and 14th in Canada.for the year. With only MK8D, Zelda(NSW), Horizon Zero Dawn and Zelda(WiiU) ahead of Splatoon 2 it bodes very well about the launch. I think we should expect Splatoon 2 to open at least around 500K in the US.
While in Europe we have it 11th France, Germany it's 14th, 41st ranking in the UK. First week sales for Europe and ROTW could tip it over 2 million.
With 4.8 million sales for Splatoon over 3 million were outside of Japan, it was the most successful Wii U games outside of established franchises. I'm sure if the debut is really this strong we should expect PR from Nintendo, because this would make it rival Zelda: BotW in terms of sales and thus far BotW has been 2nd best selling game in the US for 2017.
That's week two.