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Chris1964 · Oct 6, 2017

Media Create doesn't look very satisfied with Trails of Cold Steel III sales either.

H13 · Oct 6, 2017

I wonder will we receive a direct for Mario or will we be getting a normal direct on November.

silpheed-mcd · Oct 6, 2017

H13 said:
I wonder will we receive a direct for Mario or will we be getting a normal direct on November.

I hope a nintendo direct with the zelda botw dlc story

L~A · Oct 6, 2017

Nintendo eShop Sales: September 28th to October 4th, 2017

Nintendo eShop Nintendo Switch

(N) 01. Fire Emblem Warriors (Koei-Tecmo) [28.9.2017] (launch discount)
(-1) 02. Dragon Quest X: All-in-One Package (Square-Enix) [21.9.2017]
(+1) 03. Minecraft: Nintendo Switch Edition (Mojang) [12.5.2017]
(N) 04. Picross S (Jupiter) [28.9.2017]
(N) 05. FIFA 18 (Electronic Arts) [29.9.2017]
(+3) 06. Arcade Archives Mario Bros. (Hamster) [27.9.2017]
(N) 07. Nazotoki Mail (Silverstar Japan) [28.9.2017]
(-1) 08. Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) [21.7.2017]
(-3) 09. Snipperclips: Cut it out, together! (Nintendo) [03.3.2017]
(-5) 10. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) [28.4.2017]

Nintendo eShop Nintendo 3DS

(=) 01. Pokémon Silver (The Pokémon Company) [22.9.2017]
(=) 02. Pokémon Gold (The Pokémon Company) [22.9.2017]
(N) 03. Minecraft: New Nintendo 3DS Edition (Microsoft Japan) [14.9.2017]
(-1) 04. Dragon Quest Ⅲ (Square-Enix) [24.8.2017]
(B) 05. Dasshutsu Adventure: Kyuukousha no Shoujo (Arc System Works) [01.8.2012] (currently on sale)
(-1) 06. The Battle Cats POP (Ponos) [31.5.2015]
(-1) 07. Kirbys Blowout Blast (Nintendo) [04.7.2017]
(-4) 08. Dragon Quest II (Square-Enix) [10.8.2017]
(N) 09. Fire Emblem Warriors (Koei-Tecmo) [28.9.2017] (launch discount)
(-1) 10. Ice Station Z (Wobbly Tooth) [05.4.2017]

Nintendo eShop Wii U

(=) 01. Cube Life: Pixel Action Heroes (Teyon Japan) [09.8.2017]
(=) 02. Minecraft: Wii U Edition (Microsoft) [17.12.2015]
(=) 03. Splatoon (Nintendo) [28.5.2015]
(=) 04. Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day / Dr. Kawashimas Brain Training: How Old Is Your Brain? (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [05.8.2015]
(=) 05. Kirby Super Star (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [01.5.2013]
(+4) 06. Super Mario World (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [27.4.2013]
(+2) 07. Earthbound (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [27.4.2013]
(-1) 08. Super Smash Bros. for Wii U (Nintendo) [06.12.2014]
(B) 09. Discovery (Rainy Frog) [31.8.2016]
(-4) 10. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) [03.3.2017]

https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/ba42ccfb-a4e7-11e7-8cda-063b7ac45a6d.html

Not sure why Minecraft N3DS is only showing up this week.

theprodigy · Oct 6, 2017

Is there a post with a compilation of the PSN/eShop weekly charts?

L~A · Oct 6, 2017

hiska-kun said:
Let's wait until the end of the day about the Bic Camera lotteries. It might be an error and they might update later today.

Like Chris, wasn't expecting lotteries to end before November, maybe with Super Mario Odyssey launch at the earliest (I think it's safe to assume there'll be steady shipments from now on, at a higher level than in the past few weeks).So if it's just an error, that would make sense.

theprodigy said:
Is there a post with a compilation of the PSN/eShop weekly charts?

Hmm... have to admit, I never really thought of doing that, since the charts don't have any actual sales data. I'll start adding links to previous posts starting next week then. I believe you can just search for "Nintendo eShop Sales" within my posts for previous one, for now.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/search.php?searchid=32086328

(Not sure if search link expire?).

For PSN, Okami's the one doing those.

kuroneko0509 · Oct 6, 2017

L~A said:
Like Chris, wasn't expecting lotteries to end before November, maybe with Super Mario Odyssey launch at the earliest (I think it's safe to assume there'll be steady shipments from now on, at a higher level than in the past few weeks).So if it's just an error, that would make sense.

Hmm... have to admit, I never really thought of doing that, since the charts don't have any actual sales data. I'll start adding links to previous posts starting next week then. I believe you can just search for "Nintendo eShop Sales" within my posts for previous one, for now.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/search.php?searchid=32086328

(Not sure if search link expire?).

For PSN, Okami's the one doing those.

search link expires. you'll need to put concrete link instead of search one

L~A · Oct 6, 2017

fortunato · Oct 6, 2017

Laplasakos said:
Actually you are partialy confirming what i said about PS4 having better software sales compared to Vita and not the other way around. PS4 managed to have better software sales not because of the important releases you are talking about, but thanks to numerous mid-small releases that sold decently. Even if this wasn't the case and it was all thanks to the big releases this doesn't make it less impressive for a home console that was released 2 and a half year after a portable. So i don't think it's something it should be downplayed but i have the impression that in these threads with PS4 it's always about moving goalposts.

It's not about downplaying. It's simply about not finding impressive software sales on a platform like PS4, which is receiving all the top support from Japanese third parties, selling as much software as a platform like PSV, which hasn't received any meaningful third party support outside God Eater and portings, which were technically inferior.

Also, it's true that PS4 was released after PSV, but keep in mind that PSV never really took off in terms of third party support and hardware sales. Not that PS4 is doing spectacularly well, but I can't remember a period where PSV was selling between 20k and 30k units.

BrokenJohnCena · Oct 6, 2017

fortunato said:
It's not about downplaying. It's simply about not finding impressive software sales on a platform like PS4, which is receiving all the top support from Japanese third parties, selling as much software as a platform like PSV, which hasn't received any meaningful third party support outside God Eater and portings, which were technically inferior.

Also, it's true that PS4 was released after PSV, but keep in mind that PSV never really took off in terms of third party support and hardware sales. Not that PS4 is doing spectacularly well, but I can't remember a period where PSV was selling between 20k and 30k units.

inb4 complaining about the ps4 not having kids games like Yokai Watch or Layton

fortunato · Oct 6, 2017

BrokenJohnCena said:
inb4 complaining about the ps4 not having kids games like Yokai Watch or Layton

Layton is not a kid franchise

Skullwaker · Oct 6, 2017

BrokenJohnCena said:
outrighting asking for free marketing is as bullshit as testing a Japan only port for a certain company entire support,just sayin

I didn't say otherwise.

casiopao · Oct 6, 2017

If PS4 is able to hit that Ps3 mark, then it is a successful venture as it means PS4 at least is stable in jpn even with its pathetic start. If not, i would see it as failure.

Chris1964 · Oct 6, 2017

It looks we are entering the bad quarter for new software very quickly. October could be worse than September for new releases. Week 41 has nothing important and 42-43 are full of bombs and underperformers.

duckroll · Oct 6, 2017

casiopao said:
If PS4 is able to hit that Ps3 mark, then it is a successful venture as it means PS4 at least is stable in jpn even with its pathetic start. If not, i would see it as failure.

Hardware doesn't mean that much. Software is much more important.

Laplasakos · Oct 6, 2017

fortunato said:
It's not about downplaying. It's simply about not finding impressive software sales on a platform like PS4, which is receiving all the top support from Japanese third parties, selling as much software as a platform like PSV, which hasn't received any meaningful third party support outside God Eater and portings, which were technically inferior.

Personally, i find it impressive. The data we have also points to this. Seems like you don't agree and i can see why, since you explained your reasons, but i can't say that i agree with any of them (for reasons i already explained).

fortunato said:
Also, it's true that PS4 was released after PSV, but keep in mind that PSV never really took off in terms of third party support and hardware sales. Not that PS4 is doing spectacularly well, but I can't remember a period where PSV was selling between 20k and 30k units.

Yeah, it's not about downplaying.

casiopao · Oct 6, 2017

duckroll said:
Hardware doesn't mean that much. Software is much more important.

Umm. I think the software for PS4 right now is still allign with PS3 right? So if PS4 is much earlier to be removed for PS5, wont it be failure then?

ggx2ac · Oct 6, 2017

https://app.famitsu.com/20171006_1144715/

There's going to be a closed beta for the Final Fantasy Explorers Force game, there's also images in the link.

Edit: I can't read, it says the closed beta has started.

fortunato · Oct 6, 2017

Chris1964 said:
It looks we are entering the bad quarter for new software very quickly. October could be worse than September for new releases. Week 41 has nothing important and 42-43 are full of bombs and underperformers.

Do you think Shin Megami Tensei will bomb as Etrian Mystery Dungeon 2 did? Strange Journey wasn't a very popular game, especially compared to mainline entries.

gundamkyoukai · Oct 6, 2017

casiopao said:
Umm. I think the software for PS4 right now is still allign with PS3 right? So if PS4 is much earlier to be removed for PS5, wont it be failure then?

I thought software sales were ahead of PS3 or maybe i mistaking and that is hardware ?

TheLegendaryN · Oct 6, 2017

Aters said:
Sony platforms always have more anime license games. I don't know why but that always seems to be the case no matter who is market leader.

I know Sony owns Sony Music, Aniplex, Animax (partially), and A-1 Pictures, so they fully produce a lot of anime, and have (a share in) ownership of a lot more popular anime series. I think they have used this to get anime-based games exclusively on PlayStation, but that's just a guess of mine; I have no evidence. I'm actually pretty surprised that the new Sword Art Online game is coming to PC and Xbox, because that's one of the series I'm talking about.

Chris1964 · Oct 6, 2017

fortunato said:
Do you think Shin Megami Tensei will bomb as Etrian Mystery Dungeon 2 did? Strange Journey wasn't a very popular game, especially compared to mainline entries.

PS4 will have a weaker quarter comparing to last year but 3DS will literally dive. Don't expect anything to light the charts except US/UM. You'll try with light to find games that will top 100k LTD. The number of releases is small additionally to low profile releases. Yo-kai Watch Busters 2 could be the exception but it needs a miracle to raise interest for it.

TheLegendaryN · Oct 6, 2017

Chris1964 said:
PS4 will have a weaker quarter comparing to last year but 3DS will literally dive. Don't expect anything to light the charts except US/UM. You'll try with light to find games that will top 100k LTD. The number of releases is small additionally to low profile releases. Yo-kai Watch Busters 2 could be the exception but it needs a miracle to raise interest for it.

Yo-kai Watch Busters 2 can be happy if it sells even 10% of the original's sales. Isn't the Yo-kai hype completely dead in Japan?

fortunato · Oct 6, 2017

Chris1964 said:
PS4 will have a weaker quarter comparing to last year but 3DS will literally dive. Don't expect anything to light the charts except US/UM. You'll try with light to find games that will top 100k LTD. The number of releases is small additionally to low profile releases. Yo-kai Watch Busters 2 could be the exception but it needs a miracle to raise interest for it.

Shin Megami Tensei might still perform well even if missing the 100k mark. The original one was below 150k.

Anyway, I think 3DS can always surprise under holidays. Of course, total software sales will decrease, but games like Attack on Titan 2, Girls Mode 4 and the new Kirby (is it releasing in store as well in Japan?) can crack the 100k mark, selling constantly in December.

TheLegendaryN said:
Yo-kai Watch Busters 2 can be happy if it sells even 10% of the original's sales. Isn't the Yo-kai hype completely dead in Japan?

Completely dead... Not so much. It's still in the Top 10 of the most watched anime on a weekly basis. The third version of Yo-kai Watch 3 did well (above 750k units). As 3Ds won't have much these holidays outside Pokémon, the game can benefit.

Chris1964 · Oct 6, 2017

Since Sukiyaki came out interest for Yo-kai Watch went up after disappointing results of Sushi / Tempura but so far there is zero hype for Busters 2.

BuggyMike · Oct 6, 2017

About the general Fifa sales, I'm curious what kind of WW numbers you guys think would satisfy/disopoint EA for Switch. From what I'm hearing, they made sure not to put too much money into the Switch port just incase?

random25 · Oct 6, 2017

Chris1964 said:
Since Sukiyaki came out interest for Yo-kai Watch went up after disappointing results of Sushi / Tempura but so far there is zero hype for Busters 2.

Man that popularity was just a flash in a pan. Once upon a time it's rivaling Pokemon and MonHun for dominance in Japan.

TheLegendaryN · Oct 6, 2017

fortunato said:
Completely dead... Not so much. It's still in the Top 10 of the most watched anime on a weekly basis. The third version of Yo-kai Watch 3 did well (above 750k units). As 3Ds won't have much these holidays outside Pokémon, the game can benefit.

It's back in the top 10 then. I didn't do my research on Sukiyaki, my bad.
There isn't much buzz around Busters 2 tho, like Chris is pointing out. It's still two months; a lot can happen in the meantime. Hopefully Level-5 can continue the upward trend in 2018. Looks like there's still some life left for Yo-kai Watch.

Chris1964 · Oct 6, 2017

fortunato said:
Shin Megami Tensei might still perform well even if missing the 100k mark. The original one was below 150k.

Anyway, I think 3DS can always surprise under holidays. Of course, total software sales will decrease, but games like Attack on Titan 2, Girls Mode 4 and the new Kirby (is it releasing in store as well in Japan?) can crack the 100k mark, selling constantly in December.

Even if they achieve the 100k mark, it is a super low barrier for games of this caliber based on previous entries' sales. These are the "big" releases for October-December. Full release list isn't much bigger. There isn't anything that can surprise, it will have weak sales.

10/05 Mario & Luigi: RPG1 DX
11/02 Girls Mode 4: Star & Stylist
11/17 Pokemon Ultra Moon / Ultra Moon
11/30 Kirby Battle Royale
11/30 Attack on Titan 2
12/07 Yo-kai Watch Busters 2
12/28 Mario Party: The Top 100

Skullwaker · Oct 6, 2017

Girls Mode 4 could benefit from its November release and top 100k throughout the holidays. GM3 had nice legs a couple years ago.

Edit: Ninja'd.

TheLegendaryN · Oct 6, 2017

Girls Mode 4 will do well. Low FW but long legs. It's hard to say how active its audience still is on 3DS, since the previous game released April 2015, so that's two and a half years ago. 100k+ LTD should be doable tho, right?

Skullwaker · Oct 6, 2017

TheLegendaryN said:
Girls Mode 4 will do well. Low FW but long legs. It's hard to say how active its audience still is on 3DS, since the previous game released April 2015, so that's two and a half years ago. 100k+ LTD should be doable tho, right?

It should be, barring a notable decline in quality. I think they picked a good release date for it.

Zedark · Oct 6, 2017

BuggyMike said:
About the general Fifa sales, I'm curious what kind of WW numbers you guys think would satisfy/disopoint EA for Switch. From what I'm hearing, they made sure not to put too much money into the Switch port just incase?

Seeing they seemingly never decided on putting in extra effort to get online with friends working, along with not working on the cutting edge with Frostbite, I don't expect this to be an expensive by any means.

As for what they expect: who knows, really. FIFA is massive (more than 8 million players online already on PS4/XB1 in FIFA 18), so I doubt they would settle for below a million for Switch, personally.

Chris1964 · Oct 6, 2017

Q4 2016 (last known Famitsu numbers)
2016.10.08 Monster Hunter Stories - 330.576
2016.10.20 Mario Party: Star Rush - 188.795
2016.11.18 Pokemon Sun / Moon - 3.902.672
2016.11.23 Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo - 249.200
2016.12.01 Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS - 1.159.468
2016.12.08 Miitopia - 231.060
2016.12.15 Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki - 751.191
2016.12.15 Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball Heroes - 120.737
2016.12.22 Momotaro Dentetsu 2017: Tachiagare Nippon!! - 408.958

Q4 2017
2017.10.05 Mario & Luigi: RPG1 DX
2017.11.02 Girls Mode 4: Star & Stylist
2017.11.17 Pokemon Ultra Moon / Ultra Moon
2017.11.30 Kirby Battle Royale
2017.11.30 Attack on Titan 2
2017.12.07 Yo-kai Watch Busters 2
2017.12.28 Mario Party: The Top 100

We must play the game of how lower it will go this year. More interesting to watch is how weaker software will affect hardware sales of both PS4 and 3DS.
First signs have already shown but December will be the barometer. Switch supply will play a role too.

casiopao · Oct 6, 2017

fortunato said:
Do you think Shin Megami Tensei will bomb as Etrian Mystery Dungeon 2 did? Strange Journey wasn't a very popular game, especially compared to mainline entries.

It will bomb. Most 3ds game this year is going to bomb badly.

BrokenJohnCena · Oct 6, 2017

casiopao said:
It will bomb. Most 3ds game this year is going to bomb badly.

Imagine how badly the next 3ds etrian odyssey is gonna bomb

casiopao · Oct 6, 2017

BrokenJohnCena said:
Imagine how badly the next 3ds etrian odyssey is gonna bomb

Well, Atlus should be more or less used to that bomba sound as many of their 3DS project is going to bomba badly. And this time, the western 3ds market is more or less non existence.

Chris1964 · Oct 6, 2017

I can see Attack on Titan 2 on 3DS having a hard time topping 50k, not 100k. The popularity of the anime is nowhere high anymore and that will be quite a drop after the 500k of the original. Not that AoT Musou will have much better faith next year. It's worse that one started with even lower first entry sales.

BuggyMike · Oct 6, 2017

Zedark said:
Seeing they seemingly never decided on putting in extra effort to get online with friends working, along with not working on the cutting edge with Frostbite, I don't expect this to be an expensive by any means.

As for what they expect: who knows, really. FIFA is massive (more than 8 million players online already on PS4/XB1 in FIFA 18), so I doubt they would settle for below a million for Switch, personally.

Yeah, makes sense. Maybe it has a shot to hit an accumulation of 1 mil through the holidays. Guess we'll have a better picture of things after the numbers for other territories come out. As of now it's number 8 on the US eshop if that means anything.

BrokenJohnCena · Oct 6, 2017

casiopao said:
Well, Atlus should be more or less used to that bomba sound as many of their 3DS project is going to bomba badly. And this time, the western 3ds market is more or less non existence.

but tbf Ive never thought the downfall of the 3ds is this fast

silpheed-mcd · Oct 6, 2017

ComG! preorders

Super mario odyssey surprise me, better than I thought, 20 units ahead of super mario land 3ds, i don't know if super mario odyssey will win vs super mario land 3ds but for now it's good, really, best day score (+6, pokémon US/UM +5, MH:W +3 http://www.comgnet.com/ranking/ ):

MARIO 3D

Super mario odyssey switch:
ComG! preorders(22 days left, no bundle included): 93 pt
Hardware: 2 million?

Super mario 3d world wii u:
ComG! preorders (last day): 66 pt
22 days left: -
First week (famitsu): 106.967
LTD: 613.693
Hardware: 1.173.014

Super mario 3d land 3ds:
ComG! preorders (last day): 262 pt
22 days left: 73 pt
First week: 344.698
LTD: 2.111.490
Hardware: 2.356.915

Super mario galaxy 2 wii:
ComG! preorders (last day): 313 pt
22 days left: 72 pt
First week: 337.569
LTD: 1.046.696
Hardware: 11.607.212

Super mario galaxy wii:
ComG! preorders (last day): 201 pt
22 days left: 43 pt
First week: 256.341
LTD: 1.025.664
Hardware: 3.725.999

Super mario sunshine gc:
First week: 280.610
LTD: 789.989
Hardware: 1.453.421

Super mario 64 n64:
First week: 162.111
LTD: 1.646.558
Hardware: 159.943

Best ComG! preorders: Super mario galaxy 2 wii
Best first week: Super mario 3d land 3ds
Best LTD: Super mario 3d land 3ds

Chris1964 · Oct 6, 2017

All links from Bic Camera stores for Switch lotteries are still missing. The time they will be confirmed dead is closer.

Chris1964 · Oct 6, 2017

BrokenJohnCena said:
but tbf Ive never thought the downfall of the 3ds is this fast

3DS wasn't the brightest page in Nintendo history for a gaming device outside Japan. When people understand that and stop repeating the "Nintendo should be happy if Switch sells as much 3DS" looking only at hardware sales we'll move on.

test_account · Oct 6, 2017

fortunato said:
It's not about downplaying. It's simply about not finding impressive software sales on a platform like PS4, which is receiving all the top support from Japanese third parties, selling as much software as a platform like PSV, which hasn't received any meaningful third party support outside God Eater and portings, which were technically inferior.

Also, it's true that PS4 was released after PSV, but keep in mind that PSV never really took off in terms of third party support and hardware sales. Not that PS4 is doing spectacularly well, but I can't remember a period where PSV was selling between 20k and 30k units.

Just wondering, which software numbers would you find impressive? Which games would you expect (or thinking had a good chance) to pull the extra weight in the regards to boost the overall software sales?

silpheed-mcd · Oct 6, 2017

Chris1964 said:
All links from Bic Camera stores for Switch lotteries are still missing. The time they will be confirmed dead is closer.

Yes, big supplies incoming, it would seem.

BrokenJohnCena · Oct 6, 2017

silpheed-mcd said:
Yes, big supplies incoming, it would seem.

Im kinda lost,how does missing lotteries links mean bigger stocks?I mean the lotteries are still happening,right?

hiska-kun · Oct 6, 2017

First Day Sell-through {2017.10.05}

[PS4] Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen <ACT> (Capcom) (¥3.990) - 60%

[3DS] Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga + Bowser's Minions <RPG> (Nintendo) (¥4.980) - 30%

[PS4] Sniper: Ghost Warrior 3 <ACT> (Ubisoft) (¥7.980) - 40%

[PSV] Tokyo Clanpool # <RPG> (Compile Heart) (¥6.800) - 30%

TheLegendaryN · Oct 6, 2017

USUM will do great, like any Pokémon game. Of course less than XY and SM, but still >1M FW. Probably ORAS numbers or slightly below (1.3M to 1.6M range).
Girls Mode 4 will have a <50k FW, but LTD will be >100k
If I have to guess, Mario Party will have a <100k FW but >100k LTD
I'm not sure what YWB2 will do. Could very well be a >100k FW, but if it doesn't, I won't be surprised either.
The rest of the games won't reach 100k LTD; actually, Mario & Luigi is the only one I can see doing >50k numbers.

ArkhamFantasy · Oct 6, 2017

hiska-kun said:
First Day Sell-through {2017.10.05}

[PS4] Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen <ACT> (Capcom) (¥3.990) - 60%

[3DS] Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga + Bowser's Minions <RPG> (Nintendo) (¥4.980) - 30%

[PS4] Sniper: Ghost Warrior 3 <ACT> (Ubisoft) (¥7.980) - 40%

[PSV] Tokyo Clanpool # <RPG> (Compile Heart) (¥6.800) - 30%

What is considered a decent sell through rate in your opinion?

ggx2ac · Oct 6, 2017

BrokenJohnCena said:
Im kinda lost,how does missing lotteries links mean bigger stocks?I mean the lotteries are still happening,right?

.

Chris1964 said:
Lotteries is difficult to be maintained inside holidays at big stores for technical reasons. The traditional old system will like return and the faster will be the one who will purchase a Switch. If at January Nintendo runs out of stock after December rush it's possible they will return.

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