Joe Molotov
Member
Hmmm...
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Media Create Software Sales 2/5 - 2/11
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
Hmmm...
soundwave05
Member
Analysts just need to even stop bothering with the DS. There's no way to predict the system anymore, it's a runaway train.
Clever Pun
Member
Eteric Rice said:
It would sell out. Oh, wait...
soundwave05
Member
Wii Fitness or Wii Music + DQ Swords + Super Paper Mario honestly would be all Nintendo needs for the next 4-5 months, though I think they'll manage better than that.
Wii Sports + Play still have a ways to go before they stop selling.
Wii Sports + Play still have a ways to go before they stop selling.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Heh. Well, here are the numbers as they stand.ethelred said:
PS2 after week 1 according to Famitsu: 630,552
PS2 after week 2 according to Famitsu: 784,797
PS3 after week 13 according to Famitsu: 634,922
PS3 after week 13 according to Media Create: 612,861
PS3 after week 14 according to Media Create: 636,292
For purposes of comparisons with new systems and old I usually do Famitsu for the old (because we actually have it) and Media Create for the new (because it's always got one more week). In this case an apples-to-apples Famitsu comparison is a bit kinder since Famitsu's PS3 total is a fair step above it's MC counterpart.
Some numbers (Media Create) to see how this would work...IGN said:
DS first 6 weeks, 2006: 351,803
DS first 6 weeks, 2007: 1,104,149
DS final 46 weeks, 2006: 8,006,927
To match the 2006 total in the next 46 weeks, DS needs sell 7,254,581 units. Put another way, each week can be only 90.6% as good as the equivalent week in 2006 to reach the same total.
*shrug* I think being nearly a million (and growing) ahead of the previous leader several months in at least qualifies Wii as a strong contender.Speevy said:
Personally, for whatever reason it was on January 23 of this year that it struck me that Wii wasn't going to give PS3 a chance to catch up. (I mostly note this for future reference when people are searching old threads for things to quote.)
PS2's launch price was 39800 yen, PS3 20GB is 49800.XiaNaphryz said:
BrodiemanTTR
Member
cvxfreak said:
Dragon Quest IX, FFXII RW, and who knows what else Nintendo and others have in store for 2007. Brain Training 3? If anything, we've seen nothing yet.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
This Week Sales:
Sales History:
Since 11/27/07 - 11 total weeks:
360 - lowest week. Following the trend. Next Gen Avg = 13,028. Post Holiday Avg = 6,876.
Wii - 2nd lowest week. Establishing new trend: 65-75k. Next Gen Avg = 138,466. Post Holiday Avg = 81,629.
PS3 - 4th lowest week. Very consistent sales. Trend: 18-23k. Next Gen Avg = 43,627. Post Holiday Avg = 21,758.
Results, Analysis, & Expectations
The 360's sales are insignificant. They will not hit 1 million units before its successor is announced. 2k-6k per week for the foreseeable future.
The PS3 has flopped after 11 next-gen weeks. Almost three months and the biggest title increased hardware sales by ~4k. Multiple factors can be considered, but price must be chief among them. On a positive note, at 23k, the PS3 had its second highest sales of the year. :| Expected mediocrity until at least October. 18k-30k per week for the foreseeable future.
The Wii is clearly dependent upon hardware shipments, as sales rose by ~13k without a new title on the charts. It has sold between 3.35x and 4.19x as many units as the PS3 since the post-holiday "lull" began. Until Nintendo can supply Japan with as many Wii as they want, we'll never truly know the impact of individual software units. One might assume that they would hold some units back for the impending big releases like DQS. 65k-80k until production increases.
Expectations for 02/05-02/12
360 - 6k
Wii - 72k <--- Clearly dependent upon shipments.
PS3 - 21k <--- Dark times ahead.
This Week's Market Share:
Market Share History:
Significant Notes:
1. Wii has an almost 900k lead on PS3 in 11 weeks.
2. The PS3 has never been closer week-to-week with the Wii than 20k units, and 45k units this year.
3. The PS3 hasn't sold more than 76k units in one week since launch.
4. The Wii hasn't sold less than 65k units in one week since launch.
5. The PS3 has never come closer than 28% market share.
6. The Wii hasn't lost market share since it went on sale.
7. The PS3 just had its second best week of the post-holiday year. 23,431 (1st - 25,531 - 1/8-1/14)
8. The Wii just had its second worst week of the post-holiday year. 78,550 (1st - 93,708 - 1/8-1/14)
9. In the same time that the PS3 sold 100k, the Wii sold 400k. The 360 sold 35k.
Sales History:
Since 11/27/07 - 11 total weeks:
360 - lowest week. Following the trend. Next Gen Avg = 13,028. Post Holiday Avg = 6,876.
Wii - 2nd lowest week. Establishing new trend: 65-75k. Next Gen Avg = 138,466. Post Holiday Avg = 81,629.
PS3 - 4th lowest week. Very consistent sales. Trend: 18-23k. Next Gen Avg = 43,627. Post Holiday Avg = 21,758.
Results, Analysis, & Expectations
The 360's sales are insignificant. They will not hit 1 million units before its successor is announced. 2k-6k per week for the foreseeable future.
The PS3 has flopped after 11 next-gen weeks. Almost three months and the biggest title increased hardware sales by ~4k. Multiple factors can be considered, but price must be chief among them. On a positive note, at 23k, the PS3 had its second highest sales of the year. :| Expected mediocrity until at least October. 18k-30k per week for the foreseeable future.
The Wii is clearly dependent upon hardware shipments, as sales rose by ~13k without a new title on the charts. It has sold between 3.35x and 4.19x as many units as the PS3 since the post-holiday "lull" began. Until Nintendo can supply Japan with as many Wii as they want, we'll never truly know the impact of individual software units. One might assume that they would hold some units back for the impending big releases like DQS. 65k-80k until production increases.
Expectations for 02/05-02/12
360 - 6k
Wii - 72k <--- Clearly dependent upon shipments.
PS3 - 21k <--- Dark times ahead.
This Week's Market Share:
Market Share History:
Code:
[B][U]Date____ 360 Wii PS3[/U][/B]
11/27-12/03: 25% 49% 26%
12/04-12/10: 24% 49% 27%
12/11-12/17: 21% 50% 29%
12/18-12/24: 17% 57% 26%
12/25-12/31: 16% 56% 28%
01/01-01/07: 15% 58% 27%
01/08-01/14: 14% 59% 27%
01/15-01/21: 14% 60% 26%
01/22-01/28: 13% 60% 26%
01/29-02/04: 13% 61% 26%
02/05-02/11: 13% 61% 26%Significant Notes:
1. Wii has an almost 900k lead on PS3 in 11 weeks.
2. The PS3 has never been closer week-to-week with the Wii than 20k units, and 45k units this year.
3. The PS3 hasn't sold more than 76k units in one week since launch.
4. The Wii hasn't sold less than 65k units in one week since launch.
5. The PS3 has never come closer than 28% market share.
6. The Wii hasn't lost market share since it went on sale.
7. The PS3 just had its second best week of the post-holiday year. 23,431 (1st - 25,531 - 1/8-1/14)
8. The Wii just had its second worst week of the post-holiday year. 78,550 (1st - 93,708 - 1/8-1/14)
9. In the same time that the PS3 sold 100k, the Wii sold 400k. The 360 sold 35k.
LanceStern
Banned
You know guys, JoshuaJslone's messages are reminding me of a previous certain someone that posted a bunch of links in the same type of message structure every media create topic only once, but this other person was attacked by a lot more people initially when humble and doing nothing.
Hypocrisy am total in Media Create.
Just a small observation I noticed. Nothing big. Keep up the good work Joshua
Hypocrisy am total in Media Create.
Just a small observation I noticed. Nothing big. Keep up the good work Joshua
Eteric Rice
Member
I think Nintendo is keeping their mouths shut until the Wii's flame goes down some. Then, out of left field there will be some kind of brain child of Miyamoto that will take the world by storm.
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
LanceStern said:
Are you talking about ioi?
That's the only person I can think of, and I really hope you're not comparing joshuajslone to ioi.
xaosslug
Member
Stealth said:
games as well, but I think PS3's big $$$ is, in part, a contributing factor, going by PS2's continued sales. But Japan just doesn't seem to want next-gen, in general, yet. Even on Wii's side (as bogus a next-gen console it may be
), didn't Pokemon Wii bomba, at least by Pokemon's standards? Aren't the only "next-gen" games doing anything notable on the charts: Wii Play and Wii Sports...? Nothing has really been released to kickstart next-gen in Japan, imo. I really do think it's too soon to tell, as far as next-gen in Japan goes, until the bigger games launch. If GT5 bombas... R.I.P. PS3. ;pcvxfreak said:It's Media Create and Famitsu data, both of which are allowed to actually be discussed in here.
Exactly. Plus he isn't plugging his site at any chance he gets. Joshua is putting the links under text so anyone interested will click and anyone not interested doesn't have to worry about urls being plastered all over his posts.
Dante said:
Point is, if the PS3 continues at this momentum then it won't do better than cube numbers. You can assume that it will pick up with pricedrops, but after a year worth of these sort of sales (Wii @ near PS2 levels, PS3 @ GC levels) there is going to be a serious userbase gap, and development is going to go to the biggest marketshare. So noone will care if the PS3 'did well for its price', it'll merely be at GC numbers, and it can't be spinned positively.
A Black Falcon
Member
Square2005 said:
How about Virtua Fighter (32X) and Virtua Fighter 2 (Genesis)? Those might have numbers closer (or below) VF 5's are... not that that would be saying much.
LanceStern
Banned
duderon said:
Touche. I was just throwing it out there to let people take a little reflective look on MC thread-values.
Blue-links, same sentences, multiple lines... parallelism
JoshuaJSlone
Member
I actually have considered the parallels. However, I'm guessing as long as I stick with agreed-upon data and don't fill my site with interstitial advertising, it will probably go over a lot better.LanceStern said:
Battersea Power Station
Member
I really hope that these analysts convinced a lot of investors to bank on the PSP and PS3 and that they all lost a shitton of money. I'm not usually a spiteful person, but in this case, I can live with it on my conscience.Lapsed said:
I detest with a passion when people attempt to apply the rules of traditional capitalism to the world of the arts, even if it works 90% of the time.
EphemeralDream
Member
until the bigger games launch?xaosslug said:games as well, but I think PS3's big $$$ is, in part, a contributing factor, going by PS2's continued sales. But Japan just doesn't seem to want next-gen, in general, yet. Even on Wii's side (as bogus a next-gen console it may be
Every console that has won it's generation has done so mainly by having a large library with everything from great games to horrible ones. Right now PS3 is in bad shape because it has a small library in Japan and not enough games that appeal to the Japanese to sell. The Wii meanwhile has locked down most of the anime-based titles and smaller developers.
Even if MGS4, DMC4, and GT5 release in a 2 month span over in Japan, if they don't have those smaller titles to flesh out the library, they'll still be in trouble.
BTW that Pokemon game that you referred to beat VF5's first week sales by 20,000 units and most everyone agreed that Pokemon BR was a shell of a game. So if a much lower profile Wii title can beat out a very high profile PS3 title, this is why they are in trouble.
XiaNaphryz
LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
Nice, but no 4 Swords GCN?moku said:Okay, here it is;
Any mistakes will have changes.
LanceStern
Banned
I'm just going to throw out one more observation, one that doesn't bother me, but just to further cement the values (coughcoughhypocrisycoughcough) of MC threads.
If I'm not mistaken, the charts we all love (I do love them, especially the Mario ones haha), are based off of that one data we all love, that I just paralleled with Joshua.
Food for thought.
If I'm not mistaken, the charts we all love (I do love them, especially the Mario ones haha), are based off of that one data we all love, that I just paralleled with Joshua.
Food for thought.
PepsimanVsJoe
Member
moku said:Okay, here it is;
Any mistakes will have changes.
I LOVE IT!
Kind of surprised the sales for Zelda games haven't been higher(well at least comparable to Mario's) though it is nice to see Zelda 2 taking second place.
I understand, and if I could get actuall data for all these games, I would, TRUST ME. I have ZERO problem fixing numbers, thats easy as hell.LanceStern said:
If any of the sales wizards want to post actuall numbers for all zelda titles, I'll hack away at it.
As it stands, I have only a few sources myself, and I have a mix of them in there.
LanceStern
Banned
You know I always saw soundwave as a consistently impartial poster here in MC. I can't for the life of me imagine how he's banned everytime I see him.
You know, considering the Wii has only been out for 2 months (?) now, Zelda TP might just wind up doing fine. It seems all the console Zeldas do over 600k in Japan while handhelds go less than.
I wonder if the Wii will keep up with that trend, I mean the title certainly deserves it.
In contrast, I wonder if the DS will BUCK the trend of < 400k sales for handheld Zeldas.
You know, considering the Wii has only been out for 2 months (?) now, Zelda TP might just wind up doing fine. It seems all the console Zeldas do over 600k in Japan while handhelds go less than.
I wonder if the Wii will keep up with that trend, I mean the title certainly deserves it.
In contrast, I wonder if the DS will BUCK the trend of < 400k sales for handheld Zeldas.
moku said:Okay, here it is;
Any mistakes will have changes.
Hey moku, a small request.
Please use this flag.
The flag you used it the Ensign of the Imperial Japanese Navy.
Battersea Power Station
Member
I remember old threads with the majority of posters claiming Twilight Princess would outsell Wind Waker. I wish I could dig them up.
:lol Well the IJN also lost the war to the Americans. Xbox360 winning in Japan confirmed?cvxfreak said:There must be some subtle symbolism here involving conquest.
Okay, bad joke, sorry.
Possible if Nintendo re-issues the game midway through the Wii's lifespan, especially if it takes off and does something like 10m in Japan by late 2008 and the original release ends up at around 400k on Wii.Battersea Power Station said:
Segata Sanshiro
Member
I know one major difference off the top of my head: I couldn't tell you the url or even name of Joshua's site for the bloody life of me. Also, I'm hardpressed to remember a single post by you-know-who that didn't somehow slyly reference his income-generating site, whereas Joshua is active all throughout the forum, even in the O-T.
Phife Dawg
Member
Well PS3 20G is considerably cheaper in Japan (price drop right before launch). Pokemon Wii was just another Pokemon stadium game and not a fully fleshed Pokemon RPG. And as someone else mentioned, some games, which are proclaimed a sales success right now (at least by some people) didn't beat it's first week sales (granted that was in the christmas period). I think Wii Sports being a million seller this early on is pretty notable.xaosslug said:games as well, but I think PS3's big $$$ is, in part, a contributing factor, going by PS2's continued sales. But Japan just doesn't seem to want next-gen, in general, yet. Even on Wii's side (as bogus a next-gen console it may be
Glad to see Excite Truck and Etrian Odyssey hanging on in the top 50.
Not especially surprised by VF5 sales, but very surprised it didn't have a greater affect on PS3 sales. Guess that means either the fighter fans have already gotten their PS3, or they're sticking to the arcades for their play.
What happened to Cooking Mama though? It didn't even chart? Sad.
As for hardware sales, I don't understand Nintendo's shipping schedules on the DS. I expected this week to be about the same as last week, and next week to see an increase. Assuming the DS and Wii sell whatever they ship, I wonder at the inconsistent variation in units sold weekly. I guess it makes sense to them, but looks like they're going to need to ramp up DS production in April as well, not just Wii production.
PSP is doing well, I forsee it picking up, but mostly remaining steady at it's current rate, probably until early - mid fall. Overall, I think it'll do better than it's 2006 numbers, but not by much barring a price drop or new color.
Not especially surprised by VF5 sales, but very surprised it didn't have a greater affect on PS3 sales. Guess that means either the fighter fans have already gotten their PS3, or they're sticking to the arcades for their play.
What happened to Cooking Mama though? It didn't even chart? Sad.
As for hardware sales, I don't understand Nintendo's shipping schedules on the DS. I expected this week to be about the same as last week, and next week to see an increase. Assuming the DS and Wii sell whatever they ship, I wonder at the inconsistent variation in units sold weekly. I guess it makes sense to them, but looks like they're going to need to ramp up DS production in April as well, not just Wii production.
PSP is doing well, I forsee it picking up, but mostly remaining steady at it's current rate, probably until early - mid fall. Overall, I think it'll do better than it's 2006 numbers, but not by much barring a price drop or new color.
LanceStern said:
1. The site's not to pimp himself.
2. His data isn't questionable. (e.g. "How'd you get that number when we have this number?")
3. His raw data is open to public consumption.
Also, ioi was quite full of himself and his "methods" whereas JoshuaJSlone comes off as just trying to help with "real" data. Most of the problem with ioi wasn't with his site but with his attitude.
LanceStern said:
LanceStern said:
Nope. Just a misunderstanding on your part of the actual problem with ioi's posts.
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
Segata Sanshiro said:
Same. I honestly didn't know he had a site until Lance brought it up. I always read Joshua's fun sales information, but I've never paid attention to any links that he's posted.
Besides, he posts in other threads and even in the OT. I'm not even sure what you were going for, Lance. We already know GAF has double-standards, but don't drag Joshua into it just because you miss ioi
LanceStern
Banned
donny2112 said:1. The site's not to pimp himself.
2. His data isn't questionable. (e.g. "How'd you get that number when we have this number?")
3. His raw data is open to public consumption.
Also, ioi was quite full of himself and his "methods" whereas JoshuaJSlone comes off as just trying to help with "real" data. Most of the problem with ioi wasn't with his site but with his attitude.
Nope. Just a misunderstanding on your part of the actual problem with ioi's posts.
You dare speak the name of he-who-must-not-be-named?
I remember him first showing up, he was very humble and just posted it every MC thread with the majority of people enjoying them except for like 3 people after a month or two (cooltrick, and either you or ethel I'm not sure). The qords were something like: "I'm tired of seeing the same message every **** week pimping your site! The message structure is annoying".
There's no real big issue here, I just like observations and questioning. If the numbers are despised, how do we love the charts based off the numbers?
I digress. I enjoy both the charts and Joshua's comments. Let me stay on-topic
xaosslug
Member
EphemeralDream said:
wait, what are you arguing?
Phife Dawg said:
cheaper than PS2 and Wii... then what's the dealio, yo? I remember, when Wii Pokemon was shown... people saying it would do great things in Japan, now it's "just another Pokemon stadium game" and "a much lower profile Wii title". lolz Also, I clearly stated Wii Sports' sales were notable.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
The charts are ordinal and thus unless two games are very, very close, discrepencies in the data aren't as damaging. Plus, pretty pictures.
Aside from the franchise charts, we tend to deal with specific sales numbers (chiefly, as in the title, Media Create, but Famitsu gets dragged in as well due to our impatience) in these threads. Mysterious methodology and willy-nilly adjustments are not friends to statistics weiners like us.
Aside from the franchise charts, we tend to deal with specific sales numbers (chiefly, as in the title, Media Create, but Famitsu gets dragged in as well due to our impatience) in these threads. Mysterious methodology and willy-nilly adjustments are not friends to statistics weiners like us.
EphemeralDream
Member
Your argument seems to basically be that a bunch of big games will revive the PS3's sales and perhaps bring it out on top, but it doesn't show any signs of grabbing up smaller devs. And honestly, from what gamers know Sony isn't doing a damn thing about it. Without those smaller devs, there won't be enough games to fill out the droughts between the really big name JP titles. To put it simply, Gamecube syndrome.xaosslug said:
Do you think the Japanese will find GT5 in stores and all of a sudden wonder how they haven't embraced "true next gen"?