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Media Create Software Sales 2/5 - 2/11
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
Pureauthor
Member
Magicpaint said:
What? We already had to wait an extra week!
I want my lovely internet meltdowns...
MrSardonic
The nerdiest nerd of all the nerds in nerdland
cvxfreak said:
But in the first 6 weeks of 2007 the DS sold 752,346 units more than it did in 2006 (due to shortages). If the DS-2007 sells just 150k a week for the next 6 weeks it will have a 1m unit lead over DS-2006. At that stage DS-2007 would have to sell (on average) 25k less every week in order to fall behind DS-2006 total sales.
This graph shows how far ahead DS-2007 is already.
However, the linear graph for 2006 is what is amazing. Near constant sales no matter what time of year, no dip during the summer. It's difficult to say whether or not DS-2007 can do the same thing, but with DQIX, sequels to new IPs, more 3rd party support, and supply increases...it has a good chance.
The DS could be the first console ever to sell 10m units in a 52 weeks period. It is a possibility at some point in 2007.
It is amazing that the fastest selling system ever, which is certain to become the best selling system ever (at some point in 2007), with some of the best software sales of all time, is still not pulling the 3rd party support in like a black-hole and is still getting analyst predictions like "the light users will abandon the system".
LanceStern said:
ioi wasn't banned for the way he acted when he first showed up.
Also, my position has been and continues to be that I'm fine with ioi's numbers as long as you know where and how he gets them.
LanceStern said:
I'm not a fan of the charts since we are comparing apples (Media-Create/Famitsu data) to oranges (ioi data), but I don't mind others posting them.
Famitsu Jan 29-Feb 4
1. PS2 J-League Pro Soccer 5 108334 / NEW
2. NDS Harvest Moon: The Island I Grew Up On 70980 / NEW
3. PS2 GTA: San Andreas 64086 / 274060
4. NDS Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 58116 / 1094192
5. WII Wii Sports 51611 / 960068
6. NDS Pokemon Diamond/Pearl 45467 / 4719114
7. WII Wii Play 37335 / 824278
8. NDS Brain Training 2 32567 / 3990080
9. NDS New Super Mario Bros. 31924 / 4079935
10. NDS General Knowledge Training 29804 / 1149610
11. NDS Hotel Dusk: Room 215 25171 / 86507
12. NDS Animal Crossing: Wild World 24564 / 3861454
13. NDS Wario: The Seven 21612 / 163173
14. PS2 Saint Seiya: The Hades 20745 / NEW
15. NDS Picross DS 20567 / 88896
16. NDS Mario Kart DS 17604 / 1922226
17. NDS Kanji Brain 17202 / 283986
18. NDS Mega Man Star Force Pegasus/Leo/Dragon 17098 / 354514
19. NDS Brain Training 15964 / 3113123
20. NDS English Training 15856 / 1634979
21. NDS Sangokushi Taisen DS 15313 / 98324
22. PS2 Pachinko Winter Sonata 14925 / 63031
23. NDS Heisei Kyouiku Iinkai DS 12689 / 109127
24. NDS Hoshi no Kirby DS 12262 / 866392
25. PSP MGS: Portable Ops 11964 / 319720
26. WII Wario Ware: Smooth Moves 11916 / 319062
27. WII Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 11889 / 393857
28. PSP Monster Hunter Portable (BEST) 11828 / 234376
29. NDS Kanji Quiz DS 11027 / 427354
30. NDS 1000 Healthy DS Recipes 10441 / 286026
PepsimanVsJoe
Member
hadareud said:
Yeah but after Japan it's....the world..
Oh wait :/
DeaconKnowledge
Member
MrSardonic said:But in the first 6 weeks of 2007 the DS sold 752,346 units more than it did in 2006 (due to shortages). If the DS-2007 sells just 150k a week for the next 6 weeks it will have a 1m unit lead over DS-2006. At that stage DS-2007 would have to sell (on average) 25k less every week in order to fall behind DS-2006 total sales.
This graph shows how far ahead DS-2007 is already.
However, the linear graph for 2006 is what is amazing. Near constant sales no matter what time of year, no dip during the summer. It's difficult to say whether or not DS-2007 can do the same thing, but with DQIX, sequels to new IPs, more 3rd party support, and supply increases...it has a good chance.
The DS could be the first console ever to sell 10m units in a 52 weeks period. It is a possibility at some point in 2007.
It is amazing that the fastest selling system ever, which is certain to become the best selling system ever (at some point in 2007), with some of the best software sales of all time, is still not pulling the 3rd party support in like a black-hole and is still getting analyst predictions like "the light users will abandon the system".
One phenomena I don't think many people account for is a videogame system selling by virtue of its previous successes. The PS2 was a system you could buy at anytime because you knew that there would be a game you liked in the future. I think the DS is the same, which would explain the lack of dips in traditional low sales periods (like now, for instance).
Stormbringer
Member
hadareud said:
The fact is that the market that Nintendo want to reach with the DS is just so much larger than what it has already achieved...So I'd say no, it's probably not going to end soon. At least not until, ideally, every single person in the market effectively has one. This is Nintendo's target.
Mr Killemgood
Member
Although it's still a fairly dead console.........
The 360 has been doing far better than it has. Someone posted a chart showing that the 360 did better than any Xbox did for the full year...And if #s hold true for the 360 this year, we could see the 360 do somewhere near 400,000 units just for the year. Is that great? Of course not, but considering that's about 80% of what the Xbox did in its lifetime in Japan, it shows that MS has done in Japan (they havent done much of anything, but still).
Also, its interesting to note why the 360 has had such a "huge" increase:
Most people say it's BD, but I tend to somewhat disagree: There are about 3 factors that have enabled the 360 to do quite a bit better:
1. Core Systems (Since the core launched, sales have not been under 4k units. The core launch increased 360 sales by roughly 100% WoW with the previous week)
2. Large(r) library of J-Centric titltes: Even though DOA4 and eM are J-Centric, 2 games cannot really garner any support for a system. With Lost Planet, BD, DOAX2, and quite a few other decent J-games, a buyer has a far better selection of games than they did a year ago.
3. More J-Centric games on the horizon. The 360 in December showed to its small market that it can put out some decent Japaneese games when they care. This year's lineup seems to of energized the small basis, and emboldened a few more people (to the tune of 150% more) to buy the system this year.
A Comparison chart:
Now, although the 360 has had its weakest week of the year, it's still FAR ahead of where the 360 was at this point - about 30,000 consoles ahead (22k to 52k). Thats still a dead system, but its showing some life. What if the 360 had 125k units to date at this point next year, and 260k by this point 2 years from now? (if the 150% held through the next few years).
Bold fanboy prediction: The 360 will sell 500,000 units THIS YEAR alone. Call it crazy, but with Lost Odyssey coming out sooner than BD did last December, and a few other strong J-titles, it will do great. If the 150% held, we'd see the 360 do somewhere near 350k this year (increasing its user base by 125% over 2005 + 2006). Lost Odyssey should improve the fanbase by quite a bit if it launches in summer and has 4-5 months to continue sales.
Again, 500k units for the 360 is huge compared to the first box and last year, and is horrid compared to the Wii (for all we know, Wii will easily outsell the 360's year in just a little over a month), but it is atleast fun to think of for a Xbox fanboy such as myself.
The 360 has been doing far better than it has. Someone posted a chart showing that the 360 did better than any Xbox did for the full year...And if #s hold true for the 360 this year, we could see the 360 do somewhere near 400,000 units just for the year. Is that great? Of course not, but considering that's about 80% of what the Xbox did in its lifetime in Japan, it shows that MS has done in Japan (they havent done much of anything, but still).
Also, its interesting to note why the 360 has had such a "huge" increase:
Most people say it's BD, but I tend to somewhat disagree: There are about 3 factors that have enabled the 360 to do quite a bit better:
1. Core Systems (Since the core launched, sales have not been under 4k units. The core launch increased 360 sales by roughly 100% WoW with the previous week)
2. Large(r) library of J-Centric titltes: Even though DOA4 and eM are J-Centric, 2 games cannot really garner any support for a system. With Lost Planet, BD, DOAX2, and quite a few other decent J-games, a buyer has a far better selection of games than they did a year ago.
3. More J-Centric games on the horizon. The 360 in December showed to its small market that it can put out some decent Japaneese games when they care. This year's lineup seems to of energized the small basis, and emboldened a few more people (to the tune of 150% more) to buy the system this year.
A Comparison chart:
Now, although the 360 has had its weakest week of the year, it's still FAR ahead of where the 360 was at this point - about 30,000 consoles ahead (22k to 52k). Thats still a dead system, but its showing some life. What if the 360 had 125k units to date at this point next year, and 260k by this point 2 years from now? (if the 150% held through the next few years).
Bold fanboy prediction: The 360 will sell 500,000 units THIS YEAR alone. Call it crazy, but with Lost Odyssey coming out sooner than BD did last December, and a few other strong J-titles, it will do great. If the 150% held, we'd see the 360 do somewhere near 350k this year (increasing its user base by 125% over 2005 + 2006). Lost Odyssey should improve the fanbase by quite a bit if it launches in summer and has 4-5 months to continue sales.
Again, 500k units for the 360 is huge compared to the first box and last year, and is horrid compared to the Wii (for all we know, Wii will easily outsell the 360's year in just a little over a month), but it is atleast fun to think of for a Xbox fanboy such as myself.
People like to overlook that a significant portion of the original DS' 6.5 million sold were hardcore users (just look at how many systems were sold within the first few weeks), and they reconverted to DSLites. So, obviously, a very significant portion do have them, but not even 15 million people have DSes in Japan.
cank stoochie
Banned
what happened to the original xbox in japan.
i always had a giggle seeing it sell about 2 or 3 every week :lol
i always had a giggle seeing it sell about 2 or 3 every week :lol
WrathOfOtaibah
Banned
The Xbox 360 is doing a little better in Japan this year but my guess is the slow accumulation of titles that Japanese gamers want. Although it appears to be little more than a Dead or Alive box, with some of the games on the horizon, it might carve a semi-decent niche.
MrSardonic
The nerdiest nerd of all the nerds in nerdland
Mr Killemgood said:
no chance
the x360 had the benefit of no competition and a very expensive competitor. a few games helped to capitalize on this but had the PS3 already been out and been cheaper then I'd imagine those x360 games would have made little difference.
i don't think there is any chance of microsoft establishing themselves in the japanese market even if they do slightly better this time around. they had a lot of advantages for the x360 launch and have failed to make a meaningful step forward over xbox.
D.Lo
Member
It's utterly ridiculous. It must truly be some kind of strange bias - they still WANT Nintendo to fail, and are willing them to fail, and therefore believe they will eventually somehow fail, even though the DS has already broken all records and can't possibly fail in any way at this point.MrSardonic said:
Are you serious? Over a year and someone still brings up the 'Nfans just upgraded' thing? I guess the last 30 million PS2s were slim replacements too?CoolTrick said:
DS Lites and phats sell for full retail second hand in Japan (sometimes more). If someone is sitting on a second DS, they will most likely sell it or pass it on to their buddy/wife etc who is desperate to have one, who will then buy software for it. Look at the software charts. It's not 'hardcore users' buying the majority of the software.
This kind of denial is exactly the thing I was talking about above in response to Sardonic's post.
Pureauthor
Member
2 problems:
1st) Software sales don't fit this theory. If any significant number of sales were people switching to Lites over old DSes, it would show a drop in software. Software sales have been amazingly constant.
2nd) Even if this were true, the same holds for the PS2 and GBA, the two most successful systems of last gen, so it's a moot point.
The DS could sell a million units a month if the hardware was there. Also, the DS is destined to become the best selling system ever in Japan. Amazing really - and you can prove this by looking at the graphs, the DS hasn't even reached K value, its more like an exponential graph.
Wii will pass by 2 million and beyond come Golden Week. I really do believe that Super Paper Mario will have the same effect that NSMB's did. Both are side scrollers, and are played like traditional Mario games. I really do believe that Nintendo knows this also.
Wii will pass by 2 million and beyond come Golden Week. I really do believe that Super Paper Mario will have the same effect that NSMB's did. Both are side scrollers, and are played like traditional Mario games. I really do believe that Nintendo knows this also.
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
D.Lo said:
Well, my brother and I both owned DS Fats and then bought DS Lites. 2nd time buyers upgrading certainly makes up a portion of the sales...but, the fact that software is selling at an incredible rate with super long legs suggests that a much larger portion of sales are obviously first time buyers.
NintendosBooger
Member
D.Lo said:
You could start a whole new topic on that. Third-party bias against Nintendo definitely exists. I mean, look at the PSP. Why aren't developers treating it like the next Gamecube given its same position relative to its closest competitor? I see new PSP games popping out every week, whereas the Gamecube suffered from these long third-party droughts.
That's irrelevant, the switchers are covered by toddlers and children too young to use a DS. Still 113 millions to go.CoolTrick said:
And your "significant portion" is more than highly debatable. Well I guess it could've been worse, you could've pulled numbers out of your ass on top of that.
Stormbringer
Member
LOCK said:
I don't think it's really comparable. From what we know, it seems that Super Paper Mario is fairly more deep and complex than New Super Mario Bros...I mean, I don't think it will target a public as broad as the public of NSMB, at all. I think it will still sell well and have an effect on the Wii sales, but not nearly as much as the explosive sales of NSBM in my opinion.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Jokeropia said:
Yeah...sorry. It just seemed redundant and insensitive. But, just for your pleasure:
The 360's sales are so insignificant that their inclusion in the data tracking is almost insulting. At this point it's just a 3rd color on the chart and should never, ever be regarded as more than such. <---I'm not going to change this paragraph until 360 sales go above 30k for a week. (5th Week)
speculawyer
Member
Eteric Rice said:
Unfortunately, I agree with you there. And beyond quality, there is design . . . American still makes too many big ugly gas guzzlers.
Eteric Rice said:
Again, you raise a very good point. The unreliability of the 360 is unacceptable. I wonder if they have fixed whatever the problem is . . . clearly they did not fix the problem when they drew he arbitrary pre-2006 unit line in the sand.
But even before this problem became known, the x360 didn't sell. But then again, it had a crap launch line-up in Japan.
That's because no one plays their PS3s long enough for them to break down. :lolEteric Rice said:
(I sure don't . . . mine just sits there except for the period blu-ray movie.)
I think there's a difference between the 360 becoming successful and selling 500k this year in Japan. I would say it's impossible, but the system has shown it can get sustained boosts from software. Last year it did ~196k. So far this year it's done ~53k, over the same period last year it did ~24k. I think keeping that trend up and hitting 500k is possible this year, given the blips on the sofware lineup and the likelyhood of a price cut later in the year.MrSardonic said:
But like I said, that's not success. He said 500k, and you argued against "establishing themselves in the Japanese market". I don't think those are mutually exclusive things.
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
NintendosBooger said:
I thinks tehre is some explication:
First, they know that Nintendo is dominant with their systems, i.e. the majority of games sold on their consoles is developed or edited by themself and this scaries Third Parties.
Second, they have to innovate because the audience is different (not completely !). But try to reply the success of games like Brain Training or Nintendogs is not the best idea, so they had to try to make something really new and this is more difficult then to port some games to the PSP.
Third, well, I'm not sure about this point, but I think many remember that in the late '80 Yamauchi wasn't really what we call a "nice and comprensive guy" with Third Parties. many years have passed, but a lot of people that work in the industry right now are working in it since the early '80...
--------------------------------------
Behind this, I think that they have really no choice: if Nintendo keep the leadership with both Wii and DS, they have to develop games for them, or they'll risk to have economicals problems.
http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/day-20070216.html
NDS
=========
Prof. Layton ~50k
Bleach DS2 ~30k
Death Notes DS ~30k
PSP
=========
Tales of Destiny 2 ~50k
Lumines II ~2k
PS2
=========
Soul Cardle ~30k
EDIT: Sorry, beaten...
NDS
=========
Prof. Layton ~50k
Bleach DS2 ~30k
Death Notes DS ~30k
PSP
=========
Tales of Destiny 2 ~50k
Lumines II ~2k
PS2
=========
Soul Cardle ~30k
EDIT: Sorry, beaten...
speculawyer
Member
Rock_Man said:
So it looks like a lot of PS3 buyers just wanted a cheap blu-ray player . . . that has got to hurt sony since the blu-ray license fees probably don't make up for the subsidy very quickly. (Especially if they are rented discs.)
meltpotato
Member
speculawyer said:
the people it really hurts is third-parties. but just remember, its nintendo that is killing gaming, right??
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
enishi said:
Are those first day sales? Professor Layton with 50k is pretty damn good!
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Allow me to rephrase your question. If we remove Wii's one/two most successful games (depending on how you count Wii Play), and its software sales are even then comparable to another current system with 3 times the userbase, is that a good thing?xaosslug said:
Wii software is doing similarly to PS2 software at the same point in their lives, and that's if you exclude Wii Sports and Wii Play for whatever reason. You have Zelda at 400k, WarioWare at 330k, Pokemon Battle Revolution at 210k and then a bunch of games between 50-100k. I really don't think you can exclude Wii Sports and Wii Play to begin with though as they're perfect examples of what "Wii next-gen"/new gen is about, and clearly it interests Japan.xaosslug said:
Uh, no, it was just in reference to someone saying "13 million people have DS', so and so more to go". Please, like I'm trying to defend the PS2 here.
You're making it 10 times more than what it was, which was just pointing out the obvious that 13 million different people don't have DSes, which also means market penetration won't happen for quite a bit longer when you take that into account.
Mr. Pointy
Member
I don't believe it's 3rd party bias so much, more like a lot of devs are or were recently only starting to plan and make big software for the DS, because the PSP was still competitive and a somewhat viable platform for software up until at least 18 months ago, before the DS really blew up.D.Lo said:
You'll see some massive announcements and floods of titles on the DS this year.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
Which would be so funny if Drinky came back fully behind the DS, like a WWF switch.nubbe said:
linsivvi said:
Yeah, people seem to forget western devs don't really care for handhelds. Much of the good software on psp is from good ps2 devs and sony, which sony of course isn't going to make any ds games anytime soon. The ps2 devs can either develop some ds technology so there games don't look like crap or ignore the ds and focus on home consoles, which what most probably choose to do. We'll probably see id and bioware's(?) games this year along with a lot of pc-ish games for ds. Anyway, there has definitely been more third party software for ds than before.
youngblood000
Member
Does anyone know if Double Fine Productions has any games in the pipeline for the DS? I know they just signed a distribution deal or something like that with Steam and maybe they are too busy with that since they are a small dev, but you would think Tim Schafer would be all over the DS.
First Children
Member
Sequels on handhelds usually sells a lot less than the previous game, I predict LTD < 600k.enishi said:
Kobun Heat
Member
I think we need to avoid pinning the blame on developers, in this case -- I'm sure there are no end of genius ideas from Western game developers as to how to use the DS, but publishers are so risk-averse that they won't greenlight anything that's not a licensed kids' game or a Brain Age rip-off: the two markets that they know beyond a shadow of a doubt exist.