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[duderon]

wait, what are you arguing?



cheaper than PS2 and Wii... then what's the dealio, yo? I remember, when Wii Pokemon was shown... people saying it would do great things in Japan, now it's "just another Pokemon stadium game" and "a much lower profile Wii title". lolz Also, I clearly stated Wii Sports' sales were notable.

When all else fails, single out one game on the opposing console and claim it has poor sales!

 

[LanceStern]

Since I have no life tonight, I've been stalking the previous MC threads fervently in the sales archives trying to figure out the whole history (and transcribing it on Notepad).

Interestingly enough, Deku was able to foreshadow doom AND accurately define the people in this MC thread:

DEKU
----
Can you answer to those accusations and will that affect the integrity of your website?
It might be a good idea to put up an FAQ on that issue in particular so people here
won't use it as a way to disquality numbers from your site it the dicussion ever
evolved into that direction. Knowing GAF, discrediting your work would probably be
high on people's list if they don't like your numbers

It's amazing what a little snooping can do. I think I'll have fun with this.

I also found the first rhead of the creation of IT PRINTS MONEY: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=83931&page=5&highlight=Media+Create

It's funny to see how far we've come from then

 

[duderon]

Since I have no life tonight, I've been stalking the previous MC threads fervently in the sales archives trying to figure out the whole history (and transcribing it on Notepad).

Interestingly enough, Deku was able to foreshadow doom AND accurately define the people in this MC thread:


It's amazing what a little snooping can do. I think I'll have fun with this.

I also found the first rhead of the creation of IT PRINTS MONEY: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=83931&page=5&highlight=Media+Create

It's funny to see how far we've come from then

We know you have a hard on for ioi, why don't you go to his site and tell him about it?

That isn't the first time the itprintsmoney.gif showed up. The Androgyne did it sometime in January 06.

 

[xaosslug]

Your argument seems to basically be that a bunch of big games will revive the PS3's sales and perhaps bring it out on top, but it doesn't show any signs of grabbing up smaller devs. And honestly, from what gamers know Sony isn't doing a damn thing about it. Without those smaller devs, there won't be enough games to fill out the droughts between the really big name JP titles. To put it simply, Gamecube syndrome.

Do you think the Japanese will find GT5 in stores and all of a sudden wonder how they haven't embraced "true next gen"?

it's not that serious, really. I'm sure with GT5 (or any other MASSIVE game to see release on PS3) will come tons of marketing. PS2 (or PSP) is STILL out there, selling, for smaller developers if PS3 development's too rich for their blood. And I'm not saying anything except if that games that sold incredibly well in Japan previously don't do so upon release THEN I'll start to worry about PS3's future in Japan.

but, it's more than obvious that Japan isn't even looking toward next-gen at all, even in Wii's case, and to say otherwise at this point is reaching, imo. Until Japan shifts into next-gen gear, it's DS territory.

 

[xaosslug]

When all else fails, single out one game on the opposing console and claim it has poor sales!

wait, what?

 

[LanceStern]

We know you have a hard on for ioi, why don't you go to his site and tell him about it?

That isn't the first time the itprintsmoney.gif showed up. The Androgyne did it sometime in January 06.

I'm impartial to the whole site, but I tend to side with the side that is sided against. See: 300k success rate, Zelda Wii selling low, Third party DS sales not doing good and the like.

Interestingly enough, I found the topic that was publicly put on GAF and people listened to and agreed with his methods, and yet people still continued to degrade the MC topics faster thana vile of acid: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=95061

I gotta work on my similes. This snooping is fun.

 

[PantherLotus]

This one will sell shitloads. <--clicky

 

[AniHawk]

I am in love with the art design of Professor Layton. Holy awesome, Batman. That may be the first Level 5 game that they make themselves that's actually good.

 

[Deku]

Since I have no life tonight, I've been stalking the previous MC threads fervently in the sales archives trying to figure out the whole history (and transcribing it on Notepad).

Interestingly enough, Deku was able to foreshadow doom AND accurately define the people in this MC thread:

Backtracking and spotted this post. Please don't quote me on that anymore. At one point I thought he was being genuine, and from an academic point of view, there's nothing wrong with adjusting data if a person knows what they are doing. Media Create, Famitsu, NPD are all statistical extrapolations anyways and are not 'actual' sales. Only the manufacturers can know that. So essentially each prediction made by one of these organizations will have built in errors based on their models. Theoretically, those errors could be adjusted with sufficient analysis of the data. However I don't believe he's done it properly.

Thank you.

 

[Brak]

This one will sell shitloads. <--clicky

200,000 actually seems sort of low to me.

Stupid DS inflating my expectations for everything.

 

[marc^o^]

Pachter thought of the DS as the N-Gage and that "I don't think the DS will sell".

Pachter is amazing :lol

 

[enishi]

200,000 actually seems sort of low to me.

Stupid DS inflating my expectations for everything.

I suggest it might be the next Brain Training for DS. It should have amazing legs.

 

[Phife Dawg]

cheaper than PS2 and Wii... then what's the dealio, yo? I remember, when Wii Pokemon was shown... people saying it would do great things in Japan, now it's "just another Pokemon stadium game" and "a much lower profile Wii title". lolz Also, I clearly stated Wii Sports' sales were notable.

I don't really get your first point (may has to do with me not being a native speaker) but of course PS3 20G is not as cheap as PS2 and Wii but it offers a lot more and the price point is nor unattractive.
I don't think the Japanese market is as price sensitive as the German one for instance (or the European, on a broader scale). Esp. considering the japanese economy is in a good shape right now (as opposed to a couple of years back) which will affect consumers.
I didn't say it's a much lower profile Wii title, lolz. It is just another stadium game, which is only attractive if you are dying to see 3D renditions of your Pokemon characters. I don't have all the data in hand like some other posters but I don't think the stadium style Pokemon games have faired considerably better than Pokemon Wii. It caters to a rather small userbase. That would be different if it introduced Wi-Fi battling but that has already been included in the DS version.
Wii Sports being a notable success also means you can't expect all other titles to perform as great. Wi software is doing OK, you have Wario Ware, Zelda and Pokemon doing healthy numbers considering the installed user base. Third party software could fare a lot better though, I for one thought Elebits would do better honestly. I'm interested to see how Sonic WF will do on Wii.

 

[xabre]

VF5 came out and PS3 barely moved over last week. Poor PS3 performance in Japan has repercussions for all territories and if we see a growing trend of big name Japanese publishers begin to focus their energies elsewhere in lieu of big budget PS3 games then there may be troubled times ahead for Sony.

At this point Wii is just sitting steady and waiting to explode with the right game, i.e. something like Wii Fitness or Music.

 

[jj984jj]

I suggest it might be the next Brain Training for DS. It should have amazing legs.

The Brain Training games not by Nintendo don't have legs.

 

[GDJustin]

That's really great. For some reason the Xbox 360's japanese performance really fascinates me. It's like... clearly the system isn't going to put up a real challenge against Sony or Nintendo, but for some reason it's interesting to see MS slowly, slowly make progress.

It's like an Apple Computer scenario. If they DOUBLE their marketshare they still have just like 6%, but it's a huge success

This is a similar deal it seems. If MS ends up selling 1M 360s in Japan, that would have to be seen as a big success, I would imagine.

Glad to see the comparison finally put into graph form.

 

[Coen]

The Brain Training games not by Nintendo don't have legs.

What's your point, Vanessa?

 

[fresquito]

The Brain Training games not by Nintendo don't have legs.

Maybe because publishers of those titles don't care to market them properly.

 

[jj984jj]

My point is that if this title does well it's not only because of it's similarities with Brain Training games.

 

[Stealth]

games as well, but I think PS3's big $$$ is, in part, a contributing factor, going by PS2's continued sales. But Japan just doesn't seem to want next-gen, in general, yet. Even on Wii's side (as bogus a next-gen console it may be ), didn't Pokemon Wii bomba, at least by Pokemon's standards? Aren't the only "next-gen" games doing anything notable on the charts: Wii Play and Wii Sports...? Nothing has really been released to kickstart next-gen in Japan, imo. I really do think it's too soon to tell, as far as next-gen in Japan goes, until the bigger games launch. If GT5 bombas... R.I.P. PS3. ;p

Ah, we seem to actually agree then. I was simply making the joke that any Ninty hardware was like diamonds in Japan whereas Sony and MS consoles are treated like coal. Even if Pokemon Wii was a flop, the verdict from Japan is clearly a call for more non-games, of which Nintendo is willing to provide plenty.

In response to Ephemeral, you too have a point that big releases like GT5 and MGS4 aren't enough to push Sony into safe territory overseas. There really isn't anything -- aside from that damned price drop everyone is calling for -- likely to make a significant impact on HW sales for Sony in the foreseeable future. VF5 was expected to be the high-water mark in terms of unit pull, but it seems we underestimated how much of an effect the abundance of arcades and pre-existing VF5 culture could sway the the minds and wallets of Japanese gamers. As someone mentioned earlier, it's easy to go and play a live person somewhere for a few bucks on an actual arcade machine, but it's quite difficult to get a PS3, two recalled Virtua Sticks, an HDTV, and a friend over for the same game. Plus, they already have their swipe cards full of player data or whatever the system is. Why would they want to change that? And as for MGS4 and DMC4, it's reasonable to expect them to sell well, but I won't be shocked if HW sales don't soar when they're released. What'dya think those 600,000 PS3 owners are waiting for?

So yes, next-gen is pretty much dead on its feet as far as Japan is concerned. Will this mean less Japanese developer support for PS3? Probably. Is Sony "doomed"? Unless the Euro launch is a monumental disaster and the January NPD makes our heads spin off, I don't think so. They're in trouble, yeah, but we've known that for nearly a year now. All we can really do here is sit on our hands and wait for them to stand up and do something about it.

 

[speculawyer]

Weren't you saying a few days ago how Japan is a nationalistic country that only buys Japanese products?

That over states my position. I do think there is a strong nationalistic strain in Japan.

Do you hate the Japanese?

No, not at all. I admire Japan quite a bit. Lots of great products, nice pacifist stance. But I also love America and I'd like to see quality American products do better in Japan. Our country runs huge trade deficits and it bothers me when our 'friends' seem to have practices that make our trade deficits even worse. :-(

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

This is a similar deal it seems. If MS ends up selling 1M 360s in Japan, that would have to be seen as a big success, I would imagine.

not a success, but progress in motion

 

[Eteric Rice]

That over states my position. I do think there is a strong nationalistic strain in Japan.



No, not at all. I admire Japan quite a bit. Lots of great products, nice pacifist stance. But I also love America and I'd like to see quality American products do better in Japan. Our country runs huge trade deficits and it bothers me when our 'friends' seem to have practices that make our trade deficits even worse. :-(

I'm not trying to troll, I'm really not, this is a serious thought. But lately "American" products don't seem to stand up to Japanese quality. When it comes to cars, etc, unless you live in the south, people avoid American made stuff like a plague.

Now, there are acceptions like tools, motorcycles, etc. But Japanese stuff is just as good, if not better (especially in the electronics department).

One reason I haven't jumped on the 360 yet is due to all these reports of "red circles of death." It's the reason I didn't get a PS2 until the re-model came out. With many Japanese companies (accept for Sony's PS2, for some reason), the products usually last, especially when it comes to a company like Nintendo, etc.

I will give Sony one thing on the PS3. So far, I haven't really heard of any problems or defects. When it comes to the 360 (unfortunately), it's all over the place. : /

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Analysts just need to even stop bothering with the DS. There's no way to predict the system anymore, it's a runaway train.

Agree 200%. Analysts have one single talent: make wrong predictions.

 

[Pud]

Agree 200%. Analysts have one single talent: make wrong predictions.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

I'm not trying to troll, I'm really not, this is a serious thought. But lately "American" products don't seem to stand up to Japanese quality. When it comes to cars, etc, unless you live in the south, people avoid American made stuff like a plague.

Now, there are acceptions like tools, motorcycles, etc. But Japanese stuff is just as good, if not better (especially in the electronics department).

One reason I haven't jumped on the 360 yet is due to all these reports of "red circles of death." It's the reason I didn't get a PS2 until the re-model came out. With many Japanese companies (accept for Sony's PS2, for some reason), the products usually last, especially when it comes to a company like Nintendo, etc.

I will give Sony one thing on the PS3. So far, I haven't really heard of any problems or defects. When it comes to the 360 (unfortunately), it's all over the place. : /

From formerly working in the automobile industry, this is a very big combination of media press and the fact the a lot of Japanese simply don't recall products. Toyota, for example, recalled nearly as many vehicles as it sold last year.

The 360 is made by 3 different companys, Celestica, Wistron, and Flextronics. All plants are located in southern China. So, shoddy work isn't coming from America with this console

 

[Terrell]

From formerly working in the automobile industry, this is a very big combination of media press and the fact the a lot of Japanese simply don't recall products. Toyota, for example, recalled nearly as many vehicles as it sold last year.

The 360 is made by 3 different companys, Celestica, Wistron, and Flextronics. All plants are located in southern China. So, shoddy work isn't coming from America with this console

Maybe it's the shoddy engineering? You can't fault the Chinese factory workers for assembling something to the letter with the design if the design itself is at fault. Not to say it is the problem for sure, but it's equally as likely to be the culprit of 360's failure rate.

 

[Bearillusion]

Considering the software sales Sony should be very happy with the amount of PS3s they have shipped. Why are the Japanese even buying it when they seem to have no interest in games released on it?

 

[SovanJedi]

I don't think Japan celebrates Easter, but it's almost scary to think what kind of numbers the DS could put up if not constrained by supply.

I think once they outsell absolutely everything that can be outsold they should hold back shipments for about 2-3 months and stockpile an absolutely massive amount of DS Lites, then unleash them on Japan and see how they sell.

Y'know, just for a laugh. Because they can, e.t.c.

 

[nubbe]

No point in arguing over sales. The DS sells better than any gaming machine has ever sold.

The one game machine future is here!

 

[Deku]

No point in arguing over sales. The DS sells better than any gaming machine has ever sold.

The one game machine future is here!

I've been saying this for a while. In Japan you can't treat the DS as a product of a sub-segment of the market. The DS is the market. It's a major platform, not just a popular handheld, its the most popular platform. DQIX going to the DS confirms this, but the analysis of its success in Japan is still stifled by minds stuck in the 1980s when the portable space was created.

 

[Bearillusion]

A popular handheld will usually always outsell a popular console because one console is enough for entire family but one handheld isn't.

The sky is blue.

 

[tanasten]

I'm not surprised at the DS sales. Double screens = double the sales.

And with the Wii you can keeep moving your body, so it's normal that sales keeps healthy.

Makes sense, eh?

 

[Ngeist]

No Thursday's releases numbers ?

 

[Error]

A popular handheld will usually always outsell a popular console because one console is enough for entire family but one handheld isn't.

The sky is blue.

just like the GBA selling more than the PS2 in japan right?

 

[bud]

The sky is blue.

actually, the sky isn't blue.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

Maybe it's the shoddy engineering? You can't fault the Chinese factory workers for assembling something to the letter with the design if the design itself is at fault. Not to say it is the problem for sure, but it's equally as likely to be the culprit of 360's failure rate.

A lot of it is shit soldering. The first known problem with the 360 came in the dev kits when the memory wasn't running at the right speed. Flextronics did the first Xbox, and they did a hell of a job with it. I'm not saying that Microsoft is innocent in this, they are culpable in this as well, but I'm almost positive a lot of this is on the manufacturers and not Microsoft. That is why I hope they pulled back on their original number so they can work on their revisions.

 

[Ikael]

In contrast, he believes Nintendo will be able to ship out six million Wii units (2 million to Japan, 3 million to America, 1 million to Europe)

They do need to ship more to Europe. The PS3 is launching here and I haven't seen a Wii anywhere since it launched (and I live in Madrid, full of malls and electronic stores). Seriously. It is as if they dissappeared from the time - space continuum, I only see wiimotes and games for sale and no freaking console. They are either undershipping Europe or have screwed up the distribution badly.

But at the same time I have to admit, the PSP did look like it would really shake Nintendo to its knees.

I remember before Nintendogs/Brain Training came out in Japan that it would be great if both could do 800k-1 million life time.

I remember that Nintendogs on GAF went something like this:

- LOL, retarded game, how can anyone like this and dare to make a game for a public other than male teenagers? DS am doomed to failure and deserved to be forever hated.

- Ok, it sells well in Japan. But it is because their houses are too small to have a pet and because they like Tamagochis (I swear that people were using these reasons). It will be a "Japan only" type of game, will bomb horribly in the US.

- Ok, it sells well in the US. But it is only selling to the Japanophile community and because of the novelty only. It will die soon and...

- Damn. Ok, it is selling a freaking lot in the US and girls are buying the console for that game. But still, I really doubt that Europe would...

- Holy freaking crap.

 

[AniHawk]

I remember that Nintendogs on GAF went something like this:

- LOL, retarded game, how can anyone like this and dare to make a game for a public other than male teenagers? DS am doomed to failure and deserved to be forever hated.

- Ok, it sells well in Japan. But it is because their houses are too small to have a pet and because they like Tamagochis (I swear that people were using these reasons). It will be a "Japan only" type of game, will bomb horribly in the US.

- Ok, it sells well in the US. But it is only selling to the Japanophile community and because of the novelty only. It will die soon and...

- Damn. Ok, it is selling a freaking lot in the US and girls are buying the console for that game. But still, I really doubt that Europe would...

- Holy freaking crap.

That was Archie. It was all him. It was always all him.

 

[Tadaima]

You mean, like your Mario Chart?

Actually, I made the Mario chart.

I don't get enough GAF cred here

 

[ziran]

great job Cheesemeister!! very well looked after thread and love the charts.


wow at ds sales! 200k for a week in feb is just amazing! also, great wii sales, especially since there's been no major releases, once again emphasises the strength (and awesomeness) of wii and wii sports.

the strategy of providing incentives for buying hardware (in this case simply increasing the size of the shipments) when the competition has a high profile game is a good one, and i expect there is something of this going on here. iirc sony did something similar when mario sunshine was released by launching new ps2 colours. i wouldn't be surprised if nintendo ensures bigger than usual shipments of ds and wii during the weeks of all ps3's big releases.

 

[ziran]

Actually, I made the Mario chart.

I don't get enough GAF cred here

i remember your mario chart, it was great!
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=4193015&postcount=576

 

[marc^o^]

Yes, there are no words to express the achievement Nintendo is realizing with the DS in Japan. At this rate, one japanese out of four could own a DS in a couple of years. That's insane.

It is now in Nintendo hands to release a killer app that will make DS owners need a Wii. Something tells me this app will feature miis, like a Mii Crossing playable on the go and on the wii.

When you think of the 2 upcoming Marios, WiiSports 2 or Wii Music, Nintendo has not finished to own Japan.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

In two years, the HD consoles will begin to outsell everything. Pachter said so. He is smarter than all of us.

:lol :lol He's smart as a Cactus.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

Yes, there are no words to express the achievement Nintendo is realizing with the DS in Japan. At this rate, one japanese out of four could own a DS in a couple of years. That's insane.

It is now in Nintendo hands to release a killer app that will make DS owners need a Wii. Something tells me this app will feature miis, like a Mii Crossing playable on the go and on the wii.

When you think of the 2 upcoming Marios, WiiSports 2 or Wii Music, Nintendo has not finished to own Japan.

Dragon Quest 9 flavored Miis would be a knockout punch

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Outside of the next generation, the analysts offers some interesting thoughts on the DS. Sakurai believes that the system saw its Japanese sales peak in 2006 and that sales will gradually go down from here on. However, he believes that the system's flame was lit in Europe over the holiday season, and that 2007 will be the breakout year over there. Murakami believes that while the DS's success will continue throughout the term, the end of 2007 is a bit unclear. There's the possibility that the light users will move away from the system. He feels that Dragon Quest IX will be the big test.

What a ****ing stupid analysis. DS is destroying the entire world and in Japan is selling like never seen before and there aren't signs of stopping that trend. WTF is talking about this guy with "DS's sales will slow down" and "light users will move away from the system" ?!???
And when he says "Dragon Quest will be the big test". What ?!?? The DS doesn't need a test anywhere anymore and there are plenty of games coming out.

I have to find an analyst that make some intelligent prediction. And with that I don't mean that what he says it has to become reality, but at least it has to make sense.

 

[fresquito]

What a ****ing stupid analysis. DS is destroying the entire world and in Japan is selling like never seen before and there aren't signs of stopping that trend. WTF is talking about this guy with "DS's sales will slow down" and "light users will move away from the system" ?!???
And when he says "Dragon Quest will be the big test". What ?!?? The DS doesn't need a test anywhere anymore and there are plenty of games coming out.

I have to find an analyst that make some intelligent prediction. And with that I don't mean that what he says it has to become reality, but at least it has to make sense.

Don't be so upset, he's the same analyst predicting VF5 will be an important title for the PS3 :lol

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

Don't be so upset, he's the same analyst predicting VF5 will be an important title for the PS3 :lol

pay attention to the boards, he wasn't the only one to think this

 

[Pureauthor]

Seeing as this is a sales topic... what happened to NPD?

 

[Magicpaint]

Seeing as this is a sales topic... what happened to NPD?

Delayed or something.