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Media Create Software Sales 2/5 - 2/11

jj984jj

He's a pretty swell guy in my books anyway.
First Children said:
Sequels on handhelds usually sells a lot less than the previous game, I predict LTD < 600k.
It's entirely possible since Capcom underestimated the sales of the first game. The first game combined with it's best price rerelease is almost at 1 million.
 
jj984jj said:
It's entirely possible since Capcom underestimated the sales of the first game. The first game combined with it's best price rerelease is almost at 1 million.
I think it could be similar to Yakuza.

Yakuza 2 beated Yakuza original release but couldn't beat Yakuza + Yakuza The Best!, also the re-release got a bump when the sequel was released (which would make MHP the first PSP million seller!).


I hope they make MHP3 with infrastucture and connection to MH3 PS3...it could be quite a good system seller.
 

BuzzJive

Member
Kobun Heat said:
I think we need to avoid pinning the blame on developers, in this case -- I'm sure there are no end of genius ideas from Western game developers as to how to use the DS, but publishers are so risk-averse that they won't greenlight anything that's not a licensed kids' game or a Brain Age rip-off: the two markets that they know beyond a shadow of a doubt exist.

Have Western publishers ever really put out many high profile handheld games? I think they saw some promise in the PSP simply because they knew that developers had plenty of PS2 experience that could translate over (not to mention game engines and assets). Is the DS really getting any different support than the GBA did?

Like you said - they are just taking the safe route still with what they publish. I'm not sure why they aren't taking a couple chances with some high quality original titles. With the install base as big as it is - and growing - it seems like it would be worth the risk.
 

MrSardonic

The nerdiest nerd of all the nerds in nerdland
GhaleonEB said:
He said 500k, and you argued against "establishing themselves in the Japanese market". I don't think those are mutually exclusive things.

Please read my post properly. I said no chance of 500k. Then I also said no chance of "establishing themselves in the Japanese market".
 

Linkup

Member
Kobun Heat said:
I think we need to avoid pinning the blame on developers, in this case -- I'm sure there are no end of genius ideas from Western game developers as to how to use the DS, but publishers are so risk-averse that they won't greenlight anything that's not a licensed kids' game or a Brain Age rip-off: the two markets that they know beyond a shadow of a doubt exist.

yeah, I meant pubs.
 
MrSardonic said:
no chance

the x360 had the benefit of no competition and a very expensive competitor. a few games helped to capitalize on this but had the PS3 already been out and been cheaper then I'd imagine those x360 games would have made little difference.

i don't think there is any chance of microsoft establishing themselves in the japanese market even if they do slightly better this time around. they had a lot of advantages for the x360 launch and have failed to make a meaningful step forward over xbox.

Just a quick reminder to those questioning my bold prediction:

The 360 YOY is up 236% (22k to 52k) versus 2006. Now, if the 360 sold 196k units last year (with the vast majority being moved since the core launch), then 236% would equal out to 462,000 units. I am just believing that the launch of Lost Odyssey and a few other games this year will improve the YOY difference to around 260%. Is that so difficult to believe? 6 months ago, seeing the 360 doing what it has this year would of been impossible, but it has. Could I be wrong? Absolutely, I am givinig the prediction based on the maximum possible (well, it could even get 600k, but I dont want to go that high).

Again, quote me on it. By 2008, the 360 will have sold 500k, or within that number by 10k units. LO will come out and give it a BD-esque boost in the summer, which will allow it to do very well. Numbers in Dec will be very similar to last years, but the rest of the year, we'll see around a 300% increase in sales (this MC shows 360 with 4811 versus last years ~2000, a 250% increase in sales)
 

GhaleonEB

Member
MrSardonic said:
Please read my post properly. I said no chance of 500k. Then I also said no chance of "establishing themselves in the Japanese market".
I read your post properly. My point stands. 500k is doable, if at the high-end. I also don't think the 360 will achieve "success" or anything approximating it in Japan. So I agree with one point and not the other.
 

Deku

Banned
BuzzJive said:
Have Western publishers ever really put out many high profile handheld games? I think they saw some promise in the PSP simply because they knew that developers had plenty of PS2 experience that could translate over (not to mention game engines and assets). Is the DS really getting any different support than the GBA did?

Like you said - they are just taking the safe route still with what they publish. I'm not sure why they aren't taking a couple chances with some high quality original titles. With the install base as big as it is - and growing - it seems like it would be worth the risk.


I don't think its the western pub's fault per se. The western game scene is healthier and more diversified. There's the console business and the niche players tend to gravitate towards the PC and make great games there. So there aren't many publishers with a hand in the handheld pie, and those who do tend to be B level pubs looking to make low cost high margin products on the cheap.

The Majescos and THQs of this world can score a few hits here and there, but with most publishers doing other stuff elsewhere, its hard to get the good western software on it. And I'm sure there can be great stuff on the DS if the confluence of developer ambition and publisher backing were to occur.
 

MrSardonic

The nerdiest nerd of all the nerds in nerdland
Mr Killemgood said:
Just a quick reminder to those questioning my bold prediction

I've got all the data here in Excel. You're being unbelieveably optimistic if you think the X360 is going to continue selling at twice the rate it did in 2006...but I guess that is the hobby of fanboys.

GhaleonEB said:
I read your post properly. My point stands.

You obviously didnt or you wouldn't falsely be claiming that I claimed the 500k prediction and success in Japan were one and the same. I clearly said, 500k wasn't going to happen and then went on to discuss the separate issue of MS establishing themselves in Japan (which stands irrespective of 500k or not).
 
Mr Killemgood said:
The 360 YOY is up 236% (22k to 52k) versus 2006. Now, if the 360 sold 196k units last year (with the vast majority being moved since the core launch), then 236% would equal out to 462,000 units. I am just believing that the launch of Lost Odyssey and a few other games this year will improve the YOY difference to around 260%. Is that so difficult to believe?
Well, yes, that is pretty hard to believe. X360 was so huge (relatively) in December due to Blue Dragon. Lost Odyssey will have its work cut out equaling that bump, let alone causing an even greater one.

Mr Killemgood said:
LO will come out and give it a BD-esque boost in the summer, which will allow it to do very well. Numbers in Dec will be very similar to last years
OK, let's look at this another way. 6 weeks of the year gone, and it's up to 52K. Let's say this year there are two Blue Dragon-sized bumps where 114K systems sell in a 6 week period. Let's say every other week is 5K. That still only sums up to 450K for the year.

Unrelated, but you're referring to your percentage increases incorrectly. 52K is 236% of 22K, but it's up 136%.
 

Neomoto

Member
It seems like 3rd parties are getting more and more healthy sales on the DS! Even in the top 10 more and more 3rd party games sneak there way in!

That reminds me, does anybody know when the next ('big') Nintendo game will be released in Japan?
 

Taurus

Member
Oh ffs...

Seriously GAF, please help me. I have a bet going on with some guy about sales numbers in Japan.

My argument is: Wii is sold-out basically everywhere in Japan, and its sales are what they are because demand > supply.

His argument is: Wii isn't sold-out in Japan, and there is approximately 200-400k Wiis in Japan collecting dust on shop shelves.

So who is right and who is wrong? Prove it. Please?
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Taurus said:
Oh ffs...

Seriously GAF, please help me. I have a bet going on with some guy about sales numbers in Japan.

My argument is: Wii is sold-out basically everywhere in Japan, and its sales are what they are because demand > supply.

His argument is: Wii isn't sold-out in Japan, and there is approximately 200-400k Wiis in Japan collecting dust on shop shelves.

So who is right and who is wrong? Prove it. Please?

You made a bet on something you can't prove? You've already lost, even if you are right. (and you are).
 

Deku

Banned
Taurus said:
Oh ffs...

Seriously GAF, please help me. I have a bet going on with some guy about sales numbers in Japan.

My argument is: Wii is sold-out basically everywhere in Japan, and its sales are what they are because demand > supply.

His argument is: Wii isn't sold-out in Japan, and there is approximately 200-400k Wiis in Japan collecting dust on shop shelves.

So who is right and who is wrong? Prove it. Please?

And where did your friend get his information?
 

Taurus

Member
PantherLotus said:
You made a bet on something you can't prove? You've already lost, even if you are right. (and you are).
You know how hard it is to prove someone who doesn't have a clue. :(

My proof was that Nintendo is currently producing about 1 million consoles/month; NA gets about 450k, Japan gets about 300k and Europe gets the rest. Japan's 300k equals approximately 75k in a week which means it's sold out.

God damnit. If there only was a webpage which says if it is/isn't sold-out and I could just paste a link to that. :/

Deku said:
And where did your friend get his information?
Don't even ask.
ioi

But how to convince him that vgchart's numbers are inaccurate!? "You are just saying this because those numbers prove you are wrong." Eat $hit and die ffs! :D
 
I am actually disappointed at the DS' strong sales. Without a major sag in sales, what will cause Nintendo to bring out new colors on the market?
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Mr Killemgood said:
Just a quick reminder to those questioning my bold prediction:

The 360 YOY is up 236% (22k to 52k) versus 2006. Now, if the 360 sold 196k units last year (with the vast majority being moved since the core launch), then 236% would equal out to 462,000 units. I am just believing that the launch of Lost Odyssey and a few other games this year will improve the YOY difference to around 260%. Is that so difficult to believe? 6 months ago, seeing the 360 doing what it has this year would of been impossible, but it has. Could I be wrong? Absolutely, I am givinig the prediction based on the maximum possible (well, it could even get 600k, but I dont want to go that high).

Again, quote me on it. By 2008, the 360 will have sold 500k, or within that number by 10k units. LO will come out and give it a BD-esque boost in the summer, which will allow it to do very well. Numbers in Dec will be very similar to last years, but the rest of the year, we'll see around a 300% increase in sales (this MC shows 360 with 4811 versus last years ~2000, a 250% increase in sales)

Oh man.

First of all, don't you already have an account named jimbo? That's bannable, d00d. ;)

Next off, your assertions are meaningless. The 360 could hit some magical number that opens the gates of hell and it still wouldn't matter. It's like debating about the Wonderswan's potential or the Virtual Boy's potential. Sure, they might hit 500k IN TWO MORE YEARS (by the end of 2008 is what you said, right?), but there couldn't be a less significant milestone by anyone's standards.

Now, nobody likes to rub that shit in, and generally its pretty easy to ignore the guys hoping for some magical resurgence in this insignificant (to Japan) product. We ALL want more competition to improve for every company because that makes every product improve to stay ahead. But c'mon. It's dead. Every time some guy like yourself makes some irrelevant prediction, like "if it can keep up 3k sales per month, blah blah blah," you only make yourself look absurd and make people like me write up snippy responses like this.
 
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
I think it could be similar to Yakuza.

Yakuza 2 beated Yakuza original release but couldn't beat Yakuza + Yakuza The Best!, also the re-release got a bump when the sequel was released (which would make MHP the first PSP million seller!).


I hope they make MHP3 with infrastucture and connection to MH3 PS3...it could be quite a good system seller.

My question is where the hell is Monster Hunter DS. If it can do those numbers on PSP, it could be a record setter on DS(assuming they didn't half-ass it).
 

Jokeropia

Member
Taurus said:
But how to convince him that vgchart's numbers are inaccurate!? "You are just saying this because those numbers prove you are wrong." Eat $hit and die ffs! :D
Where on Vgcharts does it even say how many Wiis that are on shelves in Japan?
 

icecream

Public Health Threat
Well for all the people saying the 360 would do worse than the original Xbox, it's fair to state the viewpoint that it will do better, and pass 500K relatively soon.

Of course it won't matter in terms of "winning the console war" in Japan, but a large userbase is certainly more incentive for developers to try out the 360 with Japan's userbase in mind.
 

lawnjam

Member
Taurus said:
God damnit. If there only was a webpage which says if it is/isn't sold-out and I could just paste a link to that. :/

Amazon.co.jp says it's sold out, does that count? They have other sellers selling it at over RRP, which would kind of point to a shortage...
 
Jammy said:
Again, I cannot wait to see the charts when Wii gets Fire Emblem and Naruto next week.

Wii is always sold out and around 80 000 is the maximum Wii per week according to the production capacity. Except if Nintendo has some Wii in stocks for big release games, we cannot see any increase in Wii sales...
 
CoolTrick said:
13 million different people don't have DSes

That's impossible to know. We can assume a large percentage of original DS owners bought DS Lites, but we don't know what they did with their old DS. It was pointed out that a used original DS goes for a lot, though, and those sales aren't tracked my MC. So who knows?

Maybe we should do a poll: everyone who replaced their DS with a Lite--what did you do with the original?

I gave mine to a friend.
 

cvxfreak

Member
Taurus said:
You know how hard it is to prove someone who doesn't have a clue. :(

My proof was that Nintendo is currently producing about 1 million consoles/month; NA gets about 450k, Japan gets about 300k and Europe gets the rest. Japan's 300k equals approximately 75k in a week which means it's sold out.

God damnit. If there only was a webpage which says if it is/isn't sold-out and I could just paste a link to that. :/


Don't even ask.
ioi

But how to convince him that vgchart's numbers are inaccurate!? "You are just saying this because those numbers prove you are wrong." Eat $hit and die ffs! :D

www.amazon.co.jp -> &#12466;&#12540;&#12512; -> &#12466;&#12540;&#12512; Top 100 -> Wii
 
PantherLotus said:
Oh man.

First of all, don't you already have an account named jimbo? That's bannable, d00d. ;)

Next off, your assertions are meaningless. The 360 could hit some magical number that opens the gates of hell and it still wouldn't matter. It's like debating about the Wonderswan's potential or the Virtual Boy's potential. Sure, they might hit 500k IN TWO MORE YEARS (by the end of 2008 is what you said, right?), but there couldn't be a less significant milestone by anyone's standards.

Now, nobody likes to rub that shit in, and generally its pretty easy to ignore the guys hoping for some magical resurgence in this insignificant (to Japan) product. We ALL want more competition to improve for every company because that makes every product improve to stay ahead. But c'mon. It's dead. Every time some guy like yourself makes some irrelevant prediction, like "if it can keep up 3k sales per month, blah blah blah," you only make yourself look absurd and make people like me write up snippy responses like this.

This is my one and only account.

To re-state what I said - 360 will get 500k this year in h/w sales - atleast thats my outlandish prediction. Is that a "huge milestone" for gaming in Japan? Of course not. However, I'd think it'd show that western consoles can do well in an eastern country provided they actually have content that matters to their audience. The reason I'm predicting this or care - What other system in history has sold in one year what the previous console sold its entire lifecycle? Thus far, none (but the Wii could nearly do that against the GC this year).

How do you define the 360 to be dead in a country? The 360 was dead last year, and sold horridly due to crappy content. Now that it has slightly less crappy content, sales are up. We see the DS doing so incredibly well - it's outsold itself very well thus far this year - I see the importance of the 360 doing the same thing on about 1/20th the scale to be interesting - although its not relevant in the PS3/Wii wars. *However* if what I said was true, and it did keep up a 135%-ish increase, and did the same next year, it could potentially move a decent (still nothing compared to PS3/Wii) bit of units. Again, not very relevant in the big picture, but still noteworthy nonetheless.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
If a rise is units sold week to week is only 5-7k units is 200% from the year before, it only serves to prove how futile the product was in the first place, rather than any "miracle" resurgence or as you modestly put it, "noteworthy."

Yeah--I see what you're saying, but it's totally irrelevant. And I was joking about the jimbo thing. He was suggesting that the 360 would hit a million in sales*, which is idiotic beyond belief.





*before its successor is announced.
 
Mr Killemgood said:
This is my one and only account.

To re-state what I said - 360 will get 500k this year in h/w sales - atleast thats my outlandish prediction. Is that a "huge milestone" for gaming in Japan? Of course not. However, I'd think it'd show that western consoles can do well in an eastern country provided they actually have content that matters to their audience. The reason I'm predicting this or care - What other system in history has sold in one year what the previous console sold its entire lifecycle? Thus far, none (but the Wii could nearly do that against the GC this year).

How do you define the 360 to be dead in a country? The 360 was dead last year, and sold horridly due to crappy content. Now that it has slightly less crappy content, sales are up. We see the DS doing so incredibly well - it's outsold itself very well thus far this year - I see the importance of the 360 doing the same thing on about 1/20th the scale to be interesting - although its not relevant in the PS3/Wii wars. *However* if what I said was true, and it did keep up a 135%-ish increase, and did the same next year, it could potentially move a decent (still nothing compared to PS3/Wii) bit of units. Again, not very relevant in the big picture, but still noteworthy nonetheless.

The Wii doesn't have a bad chance of pulling that off, so long as supply is ramped up by the end of the year.

The 360 is dead there, man. When the systems lifetime to date is rivaling what the Wii does in month (or what the DSLite can do in little more than a week), the system is dead. It's not 3 systems a week dead...but, really, there's not much hope for Microsoft this generation.

The best they can hope for is that the 360 crosses the million console mark by the end of the generation. If they're able to do that, perhaps they can enter the next - next generation with at least some semblance of a fan base.

You keep fantasizing about the 360 more than doubling this year, then doubling over again next year. I just don't see how that will be possible once Sony hits its stride and Nintendo deepens its hold on the Japanese market.
 

Defuser

Member
miguel_c_hammer said:
My question is where the hell is Monster Hunter DS. If it can do those numbers on PSP, it could be a record setter on DS(assuming they didn't half-ass it).
Half ass Monster hunter with limited cartridge space + half ass audio + half ass graphics ftw
 
Yes, cuz the thought of half-assing something has stopped Capcom so very many times in the past.

Ancient: Now imagine those games with a whole ass. Pretty mind-blowing, isn't it?
 

Yamauchi

Banned
I have a feeling Fire Emblem is going to do quite poorly given the Wii's current userbase ("non-gamers"), but it will help in ending the drought.
 

Eteric Rice

Member
Leondexter said:
That's impossible to know. We can assume a large percentage of original DS owners bought DS Lites, but we don't know what they did with their old DS. It was pointed out that a used original DS goes for a lot, though, and those sales aren't tracked my MC. So who knows?

Maybe we should do a poll: everyone who replaced their DS with a Lite--what did you do with the original?

I gave mine to a friend.

I still have mine, as it kept me sane during Katrina. I use it to play with friends. :)
 
Leondexter said:
Maybe we should do a poll: everyone who replaced their DS with a Lite--what did you do with the original?
Use it as an alarm, or for the occasional multiplayer.

cank stoochie said:
why is nintendo releasing naruto and fire emblem at the same time. i figured they would kinda space it out
Do they publish Naruto?
 

cvxfreak

Member
I remember two years ago when Naruto 3 for DS came out on the same day as Nintendogs - Naruto clearly benefitted from the 100K DS systems sold that week due to Nintendogs.
 

xsarien

daedsiluap
Leondexter said:
Maybe we should do a poll: everyone who replaced their DS with a Lite--what did you do with the original?

I gave mine to a friend.

For about a week late last year, EB was running a special where if you traded in an SP and a DS Fat, you'd get a DS Lite for roughly $50. It really was a no-brainer.
 
Let's try this again:
Wii vs. DS m-create weekly + cumulatives for both:
Weekly scale on the Left. Cumulative scale on the Right.
392613141_95ebe5a023_o.png

L-T-D:
Wii - 1,523,121
DS - 1,801,275 (after 11 weeks)

EDIT: Wii is well ahead of the Super Famicom:
SFC shipments by March after launch (end of Mar. 1991) were 1.44m (source=famitsu weekly I believe).
Just now going into Feb. and Wii has passed that mark!
 
Effort appreciated, Square2005, but I think there are three strikes against that.
1) Two different scales for two different sets of lines... well, there's little point in having them put together.
2) Fancy background to grab attention away from the lines themselves.
3) Thanks to having a high number of colors, but not wanting the lossiness of JPEG, the file size is larger than Super Mario World.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Please just put the numbers in a graph. No Iwata. No "Ninty". No bright, gaudy colours. If you can't force yourself not to use the bright, annoying stuff, just uninstall Office 2007 and downgrade to 2000 or something.
 

sazzy

Member
The purpose of a graph is to make statistics easy to 'see' and understand. Not to make it more complicated.
 
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