-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Media Create Software Sales 2/5 - 2/11
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
jj984jj said:
No one in that thread, at least.
It's funny, reading over that thread again, how perfectly all the doom remarks towards the DS mirror exactly what's being said about the Wii now. In particular, the really novel strain of thought that it would see an initial strong burst of success and popular support that would just suddenly evaporate after the novelty wore off.
Pope Benedict XVI
Member
Lapsed said:
Man, :lol :lol
The absolute confidence with which people informed us that psp would slaughter ds as soon as consumers saw them side by side...
If there is any justice in the world, surely HyperionX must get a tag of awesomeness for that thread
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
How close was he with his initial predictions?
MINI-GAMES!!!!11111ethelred said:
Though one thing Wii did different is bringing the games for the non-gamers right from launch, but the question is will Wii Sports will hold up as long as Brain Age or Nintendogs has? If not then what's next? The highly rumored Wii Fitness I suppose?
Don't remember, but I bet if he had separated them by region he would've been wrong all around.PantherLotus said:
Pope Benedict XVI
Member
PantherLotus said:
hmm, actually i just had a look at vgcharts, and it looks like he was way off
i was just sort of vaguely thinking about these mediacreate threads when i looked at that thread.
Well he still deserves some credit for the ensuing hilarity
Eteric Rice
Member
Wow... :lol
Isn't March the exact same month that gaffers are saying that the Wii will be in trouble?
:lol :lol :lol
Isn't March the exact same month that gaffers are saying that the Wii will be in trouble?
:lol :lol :lol
ethelred said:
I was struck by this comment.
The objection insofar as the actual ratios isn't so significant but the underlying assumption (taken for granted) that once consumers has had a chance to compare both the DS and the PSP the clear winner would be obvious and consumers would obviously (not) buy a DS. This sounds remarkably like the current strain of argument which states that the Wii is a fad and the whole console wars being a no-contest deal once next-gen kicks into high gear.
in many ways that thread is hilarious, but by the end i felt sorry for the sony fansLapsed said:
to have such relentless, unflinching conviction about something, and be so, so wrong is tragic to witness. at least it serves as a warning to fans on all sides to err on the side of caution with their predictions.
Just be sure to bookmark this one:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=142770
Oh, and this one's a good one too:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=142044
Then again, Lapsed has probably already filed those away for a couple years from now :lol
As was commented earlier in the thread, it's quite funny to read exactly the same things being said about the Wii that were said about the DS - quite literally deja vu. From analysts to joke characters, the exact same spiel. With the Wii having won Japan (factually, for all intents and purposes), and doing quite well in other regions (anecdotally), I wonder if threds like those will serve up a similar amount of crow to those involved awhile from now
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=142770
Oh, and this one's a good one too:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=142044
Then again, Lapsed has probably already filed those away for a couple years from now :lol
As was commented earlier in the thread, it's quite funny to read exactly the same things being said about the Wii that were said about the DS - quite literally deja vu. From analysts to joke characters, the exact same spiel. With the Wii having won Japan (factually, for all intents and purposes), and doing quite well in other regions (anecdotally), I wonder if threds like those will serve up a similar amount of crow to those involved awhile from now
Pud, to be fair to the Sony fans, their proposition isn't exactly far fetched so I can see what they are saying actually happening. The parallels are there but I'm also not a big fan of drawing conclusions based on shaky belief that one product will replicate the success of another product merely because someone has written up a list pointing out their similarities. The correlations are untested and although I think there is a fair chance of the Wii's success mirroring that of DS. However it's only a fair chance based on the fact that the mindshare earned from the DS success appears to be bleeding into interest in the Wii, especially among the hardcore gamers (PAX 2006 was an eyeopener. DSlites everywhere) So be careful with the taunting, you may well be the one eating crow in a few years.
I do think though it is on topic insofar as our discussions about the DS and the predictions made in 2004 about that platform. That's fair game.
I do think though it is on topic insofar as our discussions about the DS and the predictions made in 2004 about that platform. That's fair game.
I may eat crow, sure, since nothing is ever really set in stone. But as far as Japan goes, I highly doubt it. The rest of the world is where the premise of Nintendomination still hasn't shaken out completely, despite anecdotal evidence that Nintendo is doing extremely well in all markets. The correlations are interesting to me because they are quite literally the exact same arguments, and that's what makes the whole thing humorous. You can quite often replace the word "DS" with the word "Wii" in those 2004 threads and the exact same argument is present. As I said, I'm sure Lapsed is already filing them away for future crow
The arguments are exactly the same because its exactly the same types of people (in some cases, the same poster) making the arguments. That may say more about their biases and blindspots than it does about Wii's potential.
With respect to that I'm not convinced of the correlation, but I did point out in an earlier post how the confidence exuded by said posters for the PS3 mirrored that shown on the PSP. It was something I noticed as a trait of the arguments, though not trying to tie it to sales in any way.
With respect to that I'm not convinced of the correlation, but I did point out in an earlier post how the confidence exuded by said posters for the PS3 mirrored that shown on the PSP. It was something I noticed as a trait of the arguments, though not trying to tie it to sales in any way.
Stormbringer
Member
Deku said:
This is exactly what I was going to say. Absolutely nothing is done yet, so no need for you to be as affirmative as this, unless you like the risk of taking really uncertain bets.
Just wait, and see.
Stormbringer said:
While I don't often like the prospect of bets - if I had the chance to make money betting on the outcome of the japanese market, I'd side with Nintendo at this point. Hell, if I lived in Japan I'd be kicking myself for not investing in NTDOY.PK a couple years back when they were in the gutter along with their stock.
It's North America (where Microsoft is doing OK) and Europe (???) where the market could shake it in many ways in the upcoming future.
Phife Dawg
Member
Didn't those posters drohne and duckroll end up with a DS? After all the "it's just a gimmick" speech to actually go out and buy one-guess their theories didn't even hold up to themselves.
Stormbringer
Member
Pud said:
Sure, you absolutely can think that and you can definitely tell us your thoughts about that, but still, it looks like you are already celebrating the Wii victory, really. Because the fact is that in some of your past posts, you are really sounding as affirmative as the internet analysts you are calling out... So once again, just be careful that this taunting attitude does not backfire one day.
In any case, just do that once you can say that every data, fact, pac-chart, review, and anecdotal evidence backs you up in the short , middle, and long term. Believe me, this is then way more fun to call out people on their mistakes.
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
Phife Dawg said:
Before the PSP was released, there were no chinks in Sony's armor. Hell, even I believe that they would steamroll the DS. Mostly everyone was wrong though.
viciouskillersquirrel
Member
Fixed!Shaheed79 said:
Mr. Pointy
Member
I thought the PSP was going to blow the DS away. Although that's because the PSP had that awesome launch lineup, and I thought it would get PS2 levels of support.
I was going to make a thread with all the shitty predictions I'd made (and ask others to come forward with the shitty predictions of their own), but ultimately decided against it. But while we're doing a crow-eating thingamajig, here's an old classic.
Galactic Fork
A little fluff between the ears never did any harm...
It's weird, you all act as if this was destined or something. All these predictions were close to coming true. Before Nintendo released brain age and nintendogs, the DS was in quicksand. The psp WAS winning. The DS had its big lead from launch, but each weak the DS was outsold.
I just want to stress the point. One or two pieces of software can change anything. This stands for the Wii and the PS3. It's only 3 months from launch, it's way too early.
Just because the predictions before were wrong, doesn't mean they were completely off base. They just forgot that the software was the most important factor.
I just want to stress the point. One or two pieces of software can change anything. This stands for the Wii and the PS3. It's only 3 months from launch, it's way too early.
Just because the predictions before were wrong, doesn't mean they were completely off base. They just forgot that the software was the most important factor.
Eteric Rice
Member
AniHawk said:
Smiles and Cries
Member
Mr. Pointy said:
PSP was sexy as hell, I was worried for the DS there for a moment until the mega sales and the DS lite
PSP should have won, but as a Nintendo fan I only got a DS
sorry Sony
Smiles and Cries
Member
People also spoke about Graphics and how old the DS hardware was compared to the PSP
And all this was true, so it was harder for them to see DS software giving sales such a boost
I was kinda pissed that the PSP did not get enough software when it needed it to challenge the DS
Wii is getting hit with the same aguements old tech... but I think the PS3 is in a better position to gain all the software needed to challenge anyone
I'm still cheering for the Wii because many people think in a few years it will not be able to compete because of its old tech
And all this was true, so it was harder for them to see DS software giving sales such a boost
I was kinda pissed that the PSP did not get enough software when it needed it to challenge the DS
Wii is getting hit with the same aguements old tech... but I think the PS3 is in a better position to gain all the software needed to challenge anyone
I'm still cheering for the Wii because many people think in a few years it will not be able to compete because of its old tech
i agree to an extent, but i think it was only part of the equation why the predictions were off base.GreenGlowingGoo said:
the main reason the psp supporters were so wrong is because they put too much faith in graphics and processing power. every 'psp will win' post was centred around ds not being able to compete with psp's technical prowess, but today we know graphics don't matter, certainly in the handheld arena.
software is obviously a major factor, and here the sony fans over-estimated the importance of playstation related franchises/developers and underestimated the strength of nintendo's internal teams.
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
Smiles and Cries said:PSP should have won, but as a Nintendo fan I only got a DS
sorry Sony
I disagree with this. Nintendo obviously knows this market better. Sony thought that they could just take the home experience and place it into a handheld and people would just flock to it because it was of the Playstation lineage. As far as the Wii and the PS3 in Japan. It looks to follow the same trend, it's just the Wii is taking off even sooner.
Smiles and Cries
Member
Agent Icebeezy said:
really? My only problem with Sony was that the PSP was the same as a PS2 and I felt it would hurt them in getting software.
Even Nintendo wanted to play down the DS by calling it the Third Pillar, trying to hint that the GBA2 would still be coming. As a fan I wanted the DS to do well but face it when those guys in Japan posted that famous pic with the DS on the table surrounded by 3 PSPs I felt maybe the DS would be shutout sooner or later.
If Nintendogs and Brain Age failed the DS would have been cooked
Galactic Fork
A little fluff between the ears never did any harm...
ziran said:
1: It's not that graphics don't matter, it's that they didn't matter as much as the other factors: Price, the touch screen, and software. People were so focused on the graphics, they couldn't see what the touch screen offered.
2: To your last paragraph, that's true, but the people on the other side are over-estimating the DS effect on the Wii and ignoring what Sony has to offer.
3: Man... Here I am, the biggest DS fangirl defending people who attacked it. Sad.
First Children
Member
I was one of them, but at the time I posted only in an italian forum.Shaheed79 said:
I predicted DS would have had new types of games that would have been a hit, while Psp would have been succesfull only with the hardcore ps2 audience, I predicted the worldwide success of Nintendogs, yet I didn't expect DS to sell 600k in a single week in Japan in December 2005.
Other things I didn't expect:
the japanese success of Brain Age;
the japanese success of Animal Crossing ds.
After reading that whole topic I must say that some of those posters (at least one of which was a mod at the time) were down right venomous towards the poor lil DS but now I remember such was the norm back then. Its like everything they said would happen, just....didn't. Even the "Doom and gloom" for traditional games if the DS was a big success didn't come to pass. Personally I'm glad they ate crow on this because now they just keep their mouth shut about anything sales related which they need to. Most of em didn't even allow for the possibility of their predictions being wrong which I think most DS supporters back then were at least willing to consider.
Smiles and Cries
Member
I am seriously amazed by what types of games I see the DS pulling off using the touch screen... I think it really lived up to what Nintendo promised.
I hope a year from now I can be as happy with software on the Wii delivering
I hope a year from now I can be as happy with software on the Wii delivering
Those predictions were so wrong and the ones concerning the Wii will probably revealed wrong because people ( and analysts ) make them with what they know :
- power of the Playstation brand
- high tech and multimedia potential
- successor of the DVD (?)
- well-known franchises that drive sales
But for the DS, and we could guess that the same may happen for the Wii, the IP that really boost the sales and sent the console in a vertuous circle came FROM NOWHERE.
Nintendogs ?? Brain Academy ?? English Training ?? Who could predict these would "launch" a console ?
I don't feel sorry for the PSP and I'm glad that creativity still drives the gaming industry.
- power of the Playstation brand
- high tech and multimedia potential
- successor of the DVD (?)
- well-known franchises that drive sales
But for the DS, and we could guess that the same may happen for the Wii, the IP that really boost the sales and sent the console in a vertuous circle came FROM NOWHERE.
Nintendogs ?? Brain Academy ?? English Training ?? Who could predict these would "launch" a console ?
I don't feel sorry for the PSP and I'm glad that creativity still drives the gaming industry.
The way I see it, the same is happening now/before Wii launch: "Wii has crappy graphics", "Wii has weak hardware opposed to the supposed beasts that are X360 and PS3", "low 3rd party support", "Wii is just a gimmick and in a year now one will care", etc. Software is and always will be the most important factor, and quite frankly, the Wii has the most promosing line-up right about now. The Wii controlls are certainly no gimmick. And if anything, the market has shown more than once that great graphics doesn't really matter in the end, it's all about the software and how (in this case) they can disrupt the market with new gameplay and possibilities.GreenGlowingGoo said:
The whole Wii thing is amazing really, I expected it to be a succes, but not on this level. It shows that Nintendo was right all along. Ofcourse, there isn't much point to repeat this, but I think that it isn't being said enough, and more or less being taken for granted. When in reallity, it is mind blowing what Nintendo actually have accomplished this past 2 years. They've shown again, that they indeed can change the entire gameindustry, in fact, I think that in spirit, Nintendo is the only true gameindustry leader, as it always has been. And all by itself, even now they are the ones carrying the Wii, and are responsible for most of the succes of DS. 3rd party's are simply 'jumping in' to keep the flow going with a few exceptions ofcourse.
Furthermore, I strongly believe that the Wii will do very well this year, their software line-up is amazing really. Hell, already they have 4 potentially GOTY material on their hands for this year alone (Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Super Paper Mario and Metroid Prime). On launch they had 2 (if you count Wii Sports for every type of gamer not just hardcore). And even more potentially non-games hits, and more games to be announced in a short while. I really believe that they have an incredible software line-up (not even mentioning the DS line-up). If we add the ongoing Virtual Console offerings, more Wii channels, the start of online games soon, the ever growing 3rd party support and the enormous hype and momentum the Wii is enjoying right now, I think it's fair to say 2007 will be yet another amazing year for Wii/Nintendo.
Smiles and Cries
Member
good points Neomoto, I really hope Wii does well