Kiriku said:
But let's be fair here...back then, there was NO way to predict that Nintendo would even release a game like Brain Training, and that it would become a HUGE success and attract people who normally aren't into games etc etc.
Naturally, it's very convenient to go back and say "wow, those people were so wrong let's point and lol nintendo ftw!" when in fact some of those predictions were pretty reasonable (not drohne and Drinky though
) given the facts at hand and the uncertainty of what was to come. Hell, I bet even Nintendo themselves never thought Brain Training would be such a smashing success.
I'm not linking to these analysts and old posts to 'pwn' anyone or insist people eat crow. I just want a good discussion of the business (since we already have discussion of the sales). The errors people make are when they analyze the hardware of the console and some of the software. But one can accurately predict the future by learning and understanding the business strategies. Investors do this all the time. I've tried even copying and pasting directly from the Blue Ocean Strategy book itself in hopes it would cast good seeds for blossoming discussion. No luck.
I could write a post saying, "Those who are saying the Wii will become a novelty and flop after a few months are like those who said the same thing about the DS." Not only would such a post be ignored, one would immediately think the person is a fanboy for saying that while the thread becomes a parade of further marching nonsense. But by linking to these analysts and old GAF threads, people make the connection themselves. Sadly, I fear that people will only be looking at 'pwnership' at these old analyst and GAF threads rather than seeing common business mistakes. (The all time most common mistake in the console business is to think it is the technology business. It isn't. It is in the entertainment business.)
The "Console War" and military jargon just needs to die. There will be no more 'console wars' in the future, at least not in the traditional manner. Console companies are going to be emulating the Wii for now on. They will emulate the Wii's strategy not just because the Wii is selling extremely well but because the Wii is vastly more profitable than the alternative strategies of Playstation 3 and (especially) Xbox 360.
We have an interesting opportunity in front of us. Today, business students read about Atari, NES, and other products like the ipod in business textbooks. But imagine if, during those time periods, you studied the sales performance, the business strategies, and all while it was going on. Real life beats any textbook. The Wii will go down in future business textbooks because it is a good example of an intentional Blue Ocean Strategy and disruptive product. But also, it will be included to give inspiration to future companies that even if your competitors own the movie and music studios or throw away billions upon billions of dollars to push their product out, a small company can not only outsell them but disrupt the industry.
We have the opportunity before us to learn much about the business of entertainment. The Internet has been primarily used for information, but the next wave will be the Internet being used primarily for entertainment. Just like at the dot com boom who knew how to ride the information wave, many people became rich. Some, disgustingly rich. We can apply the same lessons to our business ventures in the future (unless you want to work for someone else your entire life). The DS may print money, but there is no reason why
we can't.
