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[Kiriku]

I'm not linking to these analysts and old posts to 'pwn' anyone or insist people eat crow. I just want a good discussion of the business (since we already have discussion of the sales). The errors people make are when they analyze the hardware of the console and some of the software. But one can accurately predict the future by learning and understanding the business strategies. Investors do this all the time. I've tried even copying and pasting directly from the Blue Ocean Strategy book itself in hopes it would cast good seeds for blossoming discussion. No luck.

Well, the way you expressed yourself in your previous post was open for misinterpretation then ("Nothing is more awesome than this GAF thread of DS predictions"). And just making a post like that, do you seriously believe people will look at it and go "oh, let's have a good discussion about the business now!".
In any case, what I'm saying is...did you paste the Blue Ocean strategy into that thread more than 2 years ago? Did you honestly predict, back then, that Nintendo would use this strategy? It's one thing to say "they are using the Blue Ocean strategy", another thing to say "they are GOING to use the Blue Ocean strategy".

 

[ProgramFighter]

Don't want to start a new thread just to ask this question so I figured this thread would be as good as any. What's the latest word on what happened to the January NPD numbers we were expecting to get and when can we expect them?

On subject, great sales for Nintendo as always. I hope they can ramp up production of Wii soon.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

That's not logical. That's a rhetorical device that essentially circumvents the other poster's point. Just because the thread started out about Japanese sales, the debate has changed. The backlit GB was used to counter his argument about Nintendo lagging behind the available technology, and he countered that the device was only made available to a minority of potential customers. It's a fair statement, regardless of the thread title.

Sorry to jump in like this. I just find it annoying when people fall back on lame rhetorical tactics and then congratulate one another on their superior debating skills.

I am nothing if not self-congratulating.

The fact of the matter is, Nintendo did release a system with backlight technology, but the Color GB was so close to being ready that they decided it wasn't a prudent business move to release them on the heels of each other. The Color didn't have backlighting included in its spec, probably because the combination of the newer tech and the light would've drained the battery quickly.

A crappy battery life buried many a portable. Nintendo (worldwide) had a choice if they wanted a decent battery life off of AA's: Color or Light. They went with the Color. It's being said they deprived us of something by not including a back light. I say they would have deprived me of something more by sucking batteries the way their competitors did.

And all of this aside, Nintendo didn't force you to carry that nonsense around. There were much smaller lights available, and the smaller revisions of the system reduced the size even further. On top of that, there were always competitors with those features that you were more than welcome to take advantage of. The market obviously made their choice.

 

[Fuzzy]

Don't want to start a new thread just to ask this question so I figured this thread would be as good as any. What's the latest word on what happened to the January NPD numbers we were expecting to get and when can we expect them?

Tuesday.

 

[jesusraz]

Has anyone checked 2ch to see if there were any non-top 10 Media Create sales leaked at all?

 

[D.Lo]

I think the hegemony on this board is undeniable, and while it has quited some, as you say, Nintendo fans are still an underclass around here. It's getting less overt, perhaps, but everyone who has spent a decent amount of time here knows there are invisible lines that cannot be crossed -- and those lines are not evenly drawn.

Don't believe me? Just type even a mild troll in a Sony thread, then get back to me in a month or so.

Totally true - I got banned for a week by suggesting that the Castlevania game on PSP was a bad platform choice and should be on a platform more people have, like PS2. The Mod's message on my ban screen was something like 'boo hoo, your precious DS doesn't get one awesome game, get over it'.

Yet in the same thread, people got away with repeatedly stating factually incorrect info about the DS's capabilities with various trolling 'lol DS' and 'PSP rulez! High five!' type comments.

But Sega never turned around, either. Nintendo went from First (NES/SNES), to second (n64) to last (Gamecube) in a span of a few generations. If Nintendo's able to jump back to #1 against the megapowers that are Sony and Microsoft, it would be one of the biggest (if not biggest) turnarounds in the console gaming history.

While it seems that way, the Gamecube didn't come last in any fair way of measuring it. First, you forget the Dreamcast. And second, Microsoft lost $4 billion to sell, what, a milllion more then the Gamecube? Sega went third party after making far smaller losses then Microsoft. It's a totally uneven playing field when one of the players is banrolled by a sugar daddy.

 

[Eteric Rice]

ProgramFighter: bigger version of your avatar, please.

Anyway, yeah, Nintendo fans do seem to be the red headed step child of gaf. I posted a jab or two against Sony and got banned for 10 days for "trolling," yet I see people jabbing at Nintendo all the time.

But eh, that's life.

The cold hard fact is that the DS is doing amazingly well, and so far the Wii is on the way to copying that. No complaints from me.

 

[Rocksteady33]

Totally true - I got banned for a week by suggesting that the Castlevania game on PSP was a bad platform choice and should be on a platform more people have, like PS2. The Mod's message on my ban screen was something like 'boo hoo, your precious DS doesn't get one awesome game, get over it'.

Yet in the same thread, people got away with repeatedly stating factually incorrect info about the DS's capabilities with various trolling 'lol DS' and 'PSP rulez! High five!' type comments.

That's an exaggeration. I've lurked around here for a long time now and my impression is this is much more of an anti-Sony community.


Anyone have any list of some of the bigger games to hit this week?

 

[ProgramFighter]

ProgramFighter: bigger version of your avatar, please.

Glad you like it. Unfortunately I don't have the bigger version anymore.

Also, thanks, Fuzzy.

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

While it seems that way, the Gamecube didn't come last in any fair way of measuring it. First, you forget the Dreamcast. And second, Microsoft lost $4 billion to sell, what, a milllion more then the Gamecube? Sega went third party after making far smaller losses then Microsoft. It's a totally uneven playing field when one of the players is banrolled by a sugar daddy.

I'm sorry, I'm comparing hardware + software for the 3 main systems of last generation. I'm not funded by Microsoft or Nintendo and I wasn't referring to who made more money.

In all practical purposes for us gamers, the Gamecube finished last among the 3 systems worldwide.

Dreamcast already had its fire sale before the Gamecube and Xbox launched worldwide.

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

That's an exaggeration. I've lurked around here for a long time now and my impression is this is much more of an anti-Sony community.

It might be less so than in the past, but there's definitely a Sony bias around here. But, that comes with the territory when the overwhelming #1 system for the past 2 generations was on a Sony platform. Bias will slowly shift to whomever is at the top, with some exception for those die-hard defense force people and those exceptions who don't like what the #1 is offering.

 

[AndoCalrissian]

That's an exaggeration. I've lurked around here for a long time now and my impression is this is much more of an anti-Sony community.

I would say this assertion is incorrect, but I ultimately don't care, as I just avoid the situations I don't particularly like or agree with. If anything, most anti-Sony stuff that you're seeing is likely related to the huge amount of bad press that Sony has garnered for the last few months and the relation of that to the amount of good press that Nintendo has been getting. However, the pro-Sony community here is still very large.

 

[Frankfurter]

Huh, 3.5 year lifespan? I got my GBA back in 2001...and I do believe they're still selling - especially in North America.

In fact, I just picked up Final Fantasy VI.

- edit - Even though I realize we're in a MediaCreate thread, they always evolve into worldwide discussion. I don't see that as a problem.

Normally, you start counting from the release day until the day a successor is released. That's the lifespan.

 

[Kobun Heat]

Normally, you start counting from the release day until the day a successor is released. That's the lifespan.

I've given up trying to figure out what counts as "normal" around here, but that's a shaky argument at best.

 

[D.Lo]

I'm sorry, I'm comparing hardware + software for the 3 main systems of last generation. I'm not funded by Microsoft or Nintendo and I wasn't referring to who made more money.

In all practical purposes for us gamers, the Gamecube finished last among the 3 systems worldwide.

Dreamcast already had its fire sale before the Gamecube and Xbox launched worldwide.

Microsoft lost about US$173 per Xbox they got into households.

Sure, it's not a fair world, and by doing this they managed to slightly edge out Nintendo for the #2 spot.

But Nintendo's got to get some credit here for simply surviving in such a climate. And that it wouldn't take much of a 'turnaround' for them to top a company that only 'beat' them by about 6%. Hell, since Nintendo's hot again, and they're still making the gamecube, it's possible the Gamecube will eventually re-take the #2 spot anyway - highly likely even, since it's made up almost a million in the last year in the US alone.

 

[Parl]

Everybody loves King Ken Kutaragi...

Spoiler

Damn, that s key is so close to the d key.

 

[cvxfreak]

What were GC and Xbox's latest worldwide LTDs again?

 

[BorkBork]

Microsoft lost about US$173 per Xbox they got into households.

Sure, it's not a fair world, and by doing this they managed to slightly edge out Nintendo for the #2 spot.

But Nintendo's got to get some credit here for simply surviving in such a climate. And that it wouldn't take much of a 'turnaround' for them to top a company that only 'beat' them by about 6%. Hell, since Nintendo's hot again, and they're still making the gamecube, it's possible the Gamecube will eventually re-take the #2 spot anyway - highly likely even, since it's made up almost a million in the last year in the US alone.

There're not enough Gamecubes shipped to overtake the Xbox.

 

[PiccoloCube]

Gamecube production was halted some time ago. the sales it has got lately are just the remaining stock.
it won't surpass the Xbox since it would need to sell like 2 million for that and it barely sells nowadays.

but it doesn't matter who won between them since the PS2 stomped them incredibly bad. it's like debating which ant died first when an elephant stomps 2 of them.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

I've given up trying to figure out what counts as "normal" around here, but that's a shaky argument at best.

Pretty much. The GBA's lifespan certainly didn't end when the DS was released, nor is the PS2 dead because the PS3 is here. Though sometimes the release of the successor does effectively end the life of its predecessor - Xbox to Xbox 360, for example - plenty of systems survive for a long time after. IMO, for as long as there are significant releases coming out for a system, it's still "live" - and by "significant releases", I mean God of War II or FF6Advance, not Barbie's Magical Magical Adventure in Pinkland. I'm sure others would disagree & just mark the end of production or game releases as the endpoint though.

 

[cvxfreak]

Gamecube production was halted some time ago. the sales it has got lately are just the remaining stock.
it won't surpass the Xbox since it would need to sell like 2 million for that and it barely sells nowadays.

but it doesn't matter who won between them since the PS2 stomped them incredibly bad. it's like debating which ant died first when an elephant stomps 2 of them.

Actually Reggie confirmed the other day that the system was still being produced, and that manufacturing reasons kept the thing at $99.

 

[Frankfurter]

I've given up trying to figure out what counts as "normal" around here, but that's a shaky argument at best.

Well, that's as precise as it gets. If the lifespan of a product doesn't end when its successor is released, when does it end? A year later, two years later? Never?

 

[PiccoloCube]

holy shit i'm pwned

unless reggie lied again.

 

[Kobun Heat]

GameCube will almost definitely eventually take over the #2 spot from Xbox, but who the ****ing **** cares anymore.

Also, Microsoft did far more last generation than barely edge out Nintendo. They built major mindshare. Which was funny to hear them say in 2004, but not so funny now.

 

[Kobun Heat]

Well, that's as precise as it gets. If the lifespan of a product doesn't end when its successor is released, when does it end? A year later, two years later? Never?

Call me crazy, but: when they discontinue the product? Even if you think it happens before then, the GBA market (especially in the US) is incredibly, almost shockingly, robust right now.

 

[D.Lo]

Gamecube production was halted some time ago. the sales it has got lately are just the remaining stock.
it won't surpass the Xbox since it would need to sell like 2 million for that and it barely sells nowadays.

but it doesn't matter who won between them since the PS2 stomped them incredibly bad. it's like debating which ant died first when an elephant stomps 2 of them.

There're not enough Gamecubes shipped to overtake the Xbox.

Reggie confirmed the other day that they're still making them. And given it made up almost a million on the Xbox in the last year in the US, another 1.5 million doesn't seem out of the question.

 

[cvxfreak]

Reggie confirmed the other day that they're still making them. And given it made up almost a million on the Xbox in the last year in the US, another 1.5 million doesn't seem out of the question.

Not that it really matters now, but 2006 is the final year the GC will have done anything remotely noticable. What's the maximum they can sell this year, 500K?

 

[Ikael]

That's an exaggeration. I've lurked around here for a long time now and my impression is this is much more of an anti-Sony community

.

After observing GAF since a long time (I was a lurker long before I started to post here), I came to the conclussion than more than anti this or that company, GAF is anti heretics. If anyone dares to post something against the GAF's general consensus, that said person will be labelled as a troublemaker and trounced by members and mods alike, it really doesn't matter if his commentary is reasoned, well sustained or politely stated. And it has nothing to do with alliegations with one company or another, since GAF's consensus changes with time.

Say, if GAF decided that the PSP is gonna trounce the PSP, you don't dare to post anything otherwise. Predictions against the contrary outcome weren't made on GAF not only because few saw such an outcome of the portable war, but also because if anyone would have dare to do say such a thing they would have probably get their asses banned or ridulized, no matter if they would cite marketing strategies or post it on an educated manner. Same reaction would follow agains anyone that would have the guts go against any other GAF consensus whichever would be (ffVII can be only liked by fanboys, occidental games = bad art, etc, etc etc).

Still, like some members already pointed out; since the DS sucess served this board the biggest piece of crow that ever existed, heretic opinions which differs from the consensus have been slowly more accepted, thus making intelligent discussion flourish more frequently.

 

[ethelred]

Reggie confirmed the other day that they're still making them. And given it made up almost a million on the Xbox in the last year in the US, another 1.5 million doesn't seem out of the question.

They even come in a shiny new handle-less white design, too.

 

[D.Lo]

GameCube will almost definitely eventually take over the #2 spot from Xbox, but who the ****ing **** cares anymore.

Also, Microsoft did far more last generation than barely edge out Nintendo. They built major mindshare. Which was funny to hear them say in 2004, but not so funny now.

Also known as hype out of proportion to their actual success.

And now that's coming crashing down since the 360 is only performing at the same rate as the original Xbox (actually, I believe it's well behind worldwide).

Not that it really matters now, but 2006 is the final year the GC will have done anything remotely noticable. What's the maximum they can sell this year, 500K?

True, but who knows? Maybe it's already closer then we think.

But I agree it's a moot point - I was originally just mentioning it as an argument that Nintendo coming 'last' wasn't very meaningful given the amount and the circumstances.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

To be fair, even I look a bit stupid in that old DS-trashing thread in retrospect. I was still believing their claims about third pillar and expecting a new Game Boy by now.

It's weird, you all act as if this was destined or something. All these predictions were close to coming true. Before Nintendo released brain age and nintendogs, the DS was in quicksand. The psp WAS winning. The DS had its big lead from launch, but each weak the DS was outsold.

By a small amount. PSP was in the lead for 10 weeks straight, during which time PSP outsold DS by 197K, a number DS had already outsold PSP by in weekly numbers twice. That time period was what started to get me into representing these stats graphically; I wanted to point out how minor those weekly leads were in the large view.

Yeah. That was 2003. What did we have to carry around since 1989?

GBASP came out 23 months after the original GBA. DS Lite came out 15 months after the original DS. It's possible the existence of the PSP pressured them into making the redesign sooner, but it wasn't exactly an unprecedented occurrence.

The Li-Ion battery was on the market in 1991 and all over the place in 1992-1993. It took Nintendo 10 years after that to do a backlit screen.

If it was such an obvious and easy thing to do, though, how come Nintendo was the first with the GBASP to have an affordable rechargeable system with a lit screen? Wouldn't it have been a pretty smart thing to do if you're the Neo Geo Pocket or Wonder Swan trying to eke out a piece of the market?

 

[BorkBork]

Reggie confirmed the other day that they're still making them. And given it made up almost a million on the Xbox in the last year in the US, another 1.5 million doesn't seem out of the question.

Huh, what do ya know? I guess then it probably could happen. I was basing my comment on the last Nintendo fiscal report stating that they weren't shipping anymore in fiscal 2007.

 

[D.Lo]

GBASP came out 23 months after the original GBA. DS Lite came out 15 months after the original DS. It's possible the existence of the PSP pressured them into making the redesign sooner, but it wasn't exactly an unprecedented occurrence

I'd say it was the other way around, and that the DS phat was rushed into production to beat Sony to market, and the DS Lite was the 'finished' version that they got around to in their own time. I mean, the Lite was released in what was at that time the DS's prime in Japan. As someone else said, the Lite was more a 'finishing move' then a defensive move.

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

Well, that's as precise as it gets. If the lifespan of a product doesn't end when its successor is released, when does it end? A year later, two years later? Never?

When the system no longer sees relevant releases and production has completely stopped.
I think it's fair to call the Xbox dead, but the PS2 is still very much alive.

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

Also known as hype out of proportion to their actual success.

Pretty much every company does that, though. Coming off of their successful holiday where the Gamecube was hard to find (after the $99 price drop) Reggie was boasting about how they had momentum. Well...the 'Cube kinda just fell on its face after RE4 came out.

PS2 stating that they won the next gen and everything else was moot.
etc. etc.

It's their job to overhype.

As for 360 sales, it's all relative to the competition. If next week's NPD numbers show the 360 sales lagging behind the PS3 and Wii by a large margin, maybe there's cause for concern. But, I do feel Microsoft is in a pretty good position in North America. That might not translate to worldwide success, but it's definitely worth mentioning.

And really, who gives a damned where the Gamecube finishes in relation to the Xbox? It had a lifetime of shit support that lived off of mainly subpar versions of Nintendo's games. I loved my Cube, but no amount of hardware sales now will improve what's already happened.

 

[Mar]

LTTP: Wow at VF5 bomb.

So that's the RR and VF cards played. PS3 has another to go. Be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Eteric Rice]

That's an exaggeration. I've lurked around here for a long time now and my impression is this is much more of an anti-Sony community.


Anyone have any list of some of the bigger games to hit this week?

In all honesty, I never used to be against Sony. Hell, I have a Playstation and a Playstation 2, and I enjoyed them quite a bit. What really turned me on them was their attitude towards customers as of late, especially from Ken. I feel they've just gotten to comfortable and they need a beating to set them straight again.

But I definately don't want them to drop out of the race. Sony helped expand gaming quite a bit, and they deserve some credit for that. I just want them to keep their mouths shut, and put up good stuff.

Basically, a put up or shut up deal. :/

Nintendo, I'm rooting for because they're the underdog, and I grew up with them. Microsoft I'm also fine with, they haven't really said much to rub me thr wrong way.

That's just me, though.

 

[Mar]

In all honesty, I never used to be against Sony. Hell, I have a Playstation and a Playstation 2, and I enjoyed them quite a bit. What really turned me on them was their attitude towards customers as of late, especially from Ken. I feel they've just gotten to comfortable and they need a beating to set them straight again.

But I definately don't want them to drop out of the race. Sony helped expand gaming quite a bit, and they deserve some credit for that. I just want them to keep their mouths shut, and put up good stuff.

Basically, a put up or shut up deal. :/

Nintendo, I'm rooting for because they're the underdog, and I grew up with them. Microsoft I'm also fine with, they haven't really said much to rub me thr wrong way.

That's just me, though.

That's exactly how I am. Except add a PSP to that PS1 and PS2.

It's the company I've started to hate. I despise arrogance (which is why I used to hate Nintendo), and quickly turn on anyone who displays it. Sony has been nothing but arrogant since before the PS3 launch. It's like they are trying to make their customers hate them.

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

In all honesty, I never used to be against Sony. Hell, I have a Playstation and a Playstation 2, and I enjoyed them quite a bit. What really turned me on them was their attitude towards customers as of late, especially from Ken. I feel they've just gotten to comfortable and they need a beating to set them straight again.

But I definately don't want them to drop out of the race. Sony helped expand gaming quite a bit, and they deserve some credit for that. I just want them to keep their mouths shut, and put up good stuff.

Basically, a put up or shut up deal. :/

Nintendo, I'm rooting for because they're the underdog, and I grew up with them. Microsoft I'm also fine with, they haven't really said much to rub me thr wrong way.

That's just me, though.

I'm pretty much in the same boat as you.

 

[Fuzzy]

Huh, what do ya know? I guess then it probably could happen. I was basing my comment on the last Nintendo fiscal report stating that they weren't shipping anymore in fiscal 2007.

I thought the same until I noticed they weren't showing a forecast for the current fiscal year (ending March 31st 2007) for the whole year but they still shipped 660K in the first 9 months.

 

[Parl]

Can somebody make a DS vs PSP marketshare in Japan graph please?

 

[Galactic Fork]

That's exactly how I am. Except add a PSP to that PS1 and PS2.

It's the company I've started to hate. I despise arrogance (which is why I used to hate Nintendo), and quickly turn on anyone who displays it. Sony has been nothing but arrogant since before the PS3 launch. It's like they are trying to make their customers hate them.

Actually they expressed the arrogance since before the PSP launch. Sony was going to destroy Nintendo's feeble hold on the handheld market and show them how it was done. This goes back a while. Nintendo did the same thing a while back. Comes with being number 1 I guess.

 

[D.Lo]

It's their job to overhype.

And my point was that MS's hype is way out of proportion. Sony's hype is at least justified - they sold more then double both their main competitors combined. But if you went by hype alone, you'd believe MS beat Sony.

For last gen, it somewhat helped - success breeds success since people want to buy the 'in' thing, and even their 'fake' success bred something, since the xbox had a small sales upswing at the end of it's life (still less then the PS2, but for the only time it it's whole life it was comparable). But the emperor was really naked, and now that will hurt them, since the expectation is that they will continue 'beating Sony like they did last gen', which just hasn't happened. All year they've been behind the PS2, DS and GBA, and often even the 'failing' PSP. And just because the PS3 is faltering too doesn't make the 360 a success.

If next week's NPD numbers show the 360 sales lagging behind the PS3 and Wii by a large margin, maybe there's cause for concern.

If the leaked numbers were anything to go on, then they're both in trouble.

And really, who gives a damned where the Gamecube finishes in relation to the Xbox? It had a lifetime of shit support that lived off of mainly subpar versions of Nintendo's games. I loved my Cube, but no amount of hardware sales now will improve what's already happened.

Given you're bolded opinions, how exactly did you 'love your Cube'?

 

[D.Lo]

Actually they expressed the arrogance since before the PSP launch. Sony was going to destroy Nintendo's feeble hold on the handheld market and show them how it was done. This goes back a while.

Phil Harrison:
http://palgn.com.au/article.php?id=2964

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Can somebody make a DS vs PSP marketshare in Japan graph please?

Cumulative market share after each week, or what?

 

[Pud]

They even come in a shiny new handle-less white design, too.

Sorry, it's still got a handle. Nice try, though.

 

[Fuzzy]

If the leaked numbers were anything to go on, then they're both in trouble.

Those weren't leaked, they were made up. :lol

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

Given you're bolded opinions, how exactly did you 'love your Cube'?

Because Nintendo at its worst is better than most companies' best. And although it wasn't very good, the third party support they got was much, much better than the n64. Besides, Fire Emblem on its own is enough to justify loving my gamecube.

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

Sorry, it's still got a handle. Nice try, though.

I know I'm in the tiny, tiny, minority...but I think the Gamecube (especially in white) looks much better than the Wii....and pretty much any other console in recent memory.

 

[Parl]

Cumulative market share after each week, or what?

Yeah, cumulative is what I'm on about. But, if ye don't mind, do one for each week in isolation too please.