Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Smoke6 said:
But didn't ABK specify that the regulators had to agree or it's no deal? Like where on earth are people saying two different things whej one is stamped in ink!
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What some are arguing is they can change the deal at any time to make it go through. Which I don't believe is possible without consequences.

Best hope is a successful appeal and then the CMA would accept further concessions from Microsoft.
 
Smoke6 said:
But didn't ABK specify that the regulators had to agree or it's no deal? Like where on earth are people saying two different things whej one is stamped in ink!
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Low IQs. Even if it wasn't "stamped in ink," region/country regulators are still going to comb over the deal and approve/disapprove. Especially one this large and impactful on the industry. It doesn't have to be "in ink" in order for them to do what they were set up to do, regulate. ABK/MS were probably putting in a solid $3b escrow clause to make parties more confident.
 
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MasterCornholio said:
What some are arguing is they can change the deal at any time to make it go through. Which I don't believe is possible without consequences.

Best hope is a successful appeal and then the CMA would accept further concessions from Microsoft.
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Yeah, they can't change the deal without shareholder approval.

Also even if they "ringfence" the UK, the merger would still be under the jurisdiction of the CMA because both companies have subsidiaries that are either based in the UK or are operating there (for MS it's Ninja Theory, Rare and Playground games. For ActiBlizz there is a Sledgehammer UK studio).
 
Astray said:
People who talk about ringfencing or carving out the UK portion of Activision business, here is the #1 reason that will never ever happen: The financial loss would be insane!

Giphy's pricetag went from $400m to $53m!!!!

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They did the divestment the CMA demanded after all.

This is also a caution about going ahead with these acquisitions when regulators are opposed. Those post acquisition divestments are painful.
 
Astray said:
Yeah, they can't change the deal without shareholder approval.

Also even if they "ringfence" the UK, the merger would still be under the jurisdiction of the CMA because both companies have subsidiaries that are either based in the UK or are operating there (for MS it's Ninja Theory, Rare and Playground games. For ActiBlizz there is a Sledgehammer UK studio).
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Also Microsoft has more than just studios in the UK. Pretty sure things like their cloud business is located there.

ToadMan said:
They did the divestment the CMA demanded after all.

This is also a caution about going ahead with these acquisitions when regulators are opposed. Those post acquisition divestments are painful.
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Imagine divesting COD. That has to be very painful.
 
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MasterCornholio said:
Also Microsoft has more than just studios in the UK. Pretty sure things like their cloud business is located there.
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They probably have Azure data centers and a lot of enterprise customers in there that they don't want to lose.

This deal is increasingly dead the more I think about it tbh.
 
MasterCornholio said:
What some are arguing is they can change the deal at any time to make it go through. Which I don't believe is possible without consequences.

Best hope is a successful appeal and then the CMA would accept further concessions from Microsoft.
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Its not possible, period. Say MS just re-writes the terms of the Merger Agreement and nulls the portion stating it needs to pass a handful of regulators including the CMA for the deal to close: this still wouldn't prevent the CMA from weighing on this.

Folks keep living in this fantasy where MS will be willing to go to war with the government of its 2nd biggest market for Xbox. That just is not going to happen. Even if its just a move to put pressure on the CMA and UK Government, at a certain point, you trigger that scenario where public support swells for telling a big corporation to go fuck itself and that they won't be held hostage.

Why would MS risk getting all of their businesses getting banned in the UK? This makes no sense. Not just that, going this far would put any future deal MS could want to do, gaming related or not, in jeopardy in front of the CMA and every other regulatory agency in the world. MS' actions would also be used against them by the FTC in the US courts.
 
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SneakersSO said:
Its not possible, period. Say MS just re-writes the terms of the Merger Agreement and nulls the portion stating it needs to pass a handful of regulators including the CMA for the deal to close: this still wouldn't prevent the CMA from weighing on this.

Folks keep living in this fantasy where MS will be willing to go to war with the government of its 2nd biggest market for Xbox. That just is not going to happen. Even if its just a move to put pressure on the CMA and UK Government, at a certain point, you trigger that scenario where public support swells for telling a big corporation to go fuck itself and that they won't be held hostage.

Why would MS risk getting all of their businesses getting banned in the UK? This makes no sense. Not just that, going this far would put any future deal MS could want to do, gaming related or not, in jeopardy in front of the CMA and every other regulatory agency in the world. MS' actions would also be used against them by the FTC in the US courts.
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People aren't grasping that regulators will still regulate, whether the contract includes them or not. That was only put into the contract along with the $3b escrow to ease investors "back out" nerves on overpriced shares.

MS: "Hey look, we are so confident this deal will pass these top major markets, we will put it in writing that if not, here is your $3b."

None of the regulators are all of a sudden going to go, "oh well, they didn't put us in the SEC filing in some tiny ass state in the US, I guess we can't do our jobs within our own country now."

Otherwise, corporations would use that Low IQ loophole to gobble up the world. Think, rere's, think.
 
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MasterCornholio said:
Who knows maybe they will breed with each other. We have have a bunch of mutant Sage/Florian hybrids running around the place.

Mark Proksch Fx GIF by What We Do in the Shadows
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Astray said:
They probably have Azure data centers and a lot of enterprise customers in there that they don't want to lose.

This deal is increasingly dead the more I think about it tbh.
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Appeal is One hour & 16 minutes.

They can still win at CAT and CMA might reverse decision by Summer 2024.

US Appeal will likely take way longer though.
 
feynoob said:
If they do the appeal, does that mean they will extend the deal?
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Not necessarily. ATVI could still nope out in July and take their $3 billion. They just have to look united until the cut off date. I'm not saying that's what they will do, only that the ball is in their court to decide if they want to cash out or go for broke.

Bernoulli said:
they say the appeal is 4 weeks after the final order, but the final order isn't out yet
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They have until the end of business day today to file their appeal.
 
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IFireflyl said:
Not necessarily. ATVI could still nope out in July and take their $3 billion. They just have to look united until the cut off date. I'm not saying that's what they will do, only that the ball is in their court to decide if they want to cash out or go for broke.
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I haven't paid that much attention to everything that is going on but from what I can tell, Activision is just as interested in doing this as Microsoft (which is a shame), so I don't really see them backing out at the cut off date. I think they will stay the course.
 
X-Wing said:
Why is this relevant?
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I skimmed it. Looks like they are still accepting feedback on their decision for another couple of weeks (June 19th actually). My guess is everyone saying today was the appeal deadline might have jumped the gun. Purely a guess though.

It does make me wonder if there's still hope for MS to change their minds, one way or another. This is why:

"The CMA will have regard to any written representations made in accordance with this Notice and may make modifications to the proposed Order as a result. In the absence of any written representations, or in the event that the CMA decides, on consideration of representations made, not to make material amendments to the Order, the CMA proposes to make the Order pursuant to section 84 of the Act. If the CMA considers that any representation necessitates any material change to the proposed Order, the CMA will give notice of the proposed modifications."
 
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X-Wing said:
Why do you think I'm being condescending?!
It was a simple question considering it was posted with no context, chill.
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When someone posts something that is directly related to the thread topic, and someone fires off a response that asks why is it relevant, it's not a strong leap to interpret that post as condescending. Maybe if you would have read the link you could have saved yourself a pointless post. As you said: chill.
 
NickFire said:
I skimmed it. Looks like they are still accepting feedback on their decision for another couple of weeks. My guess is everyone saying today was the appeal deadline might have jumped the gun. Purely a guess though.

It does make me wonder if there's still hope for MS to change their minds, one way or another.
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Reuters mentions the 24th as deadline for the appeal. I think they know what they are talking about…
 
X-Wing said:
Reuters mentions the 24th as deadline for the appeal. I think they know what they are talking about…
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What I've seen said is that it can be submitted today. But that doesn't mean it will be revealed to us.

Why they wouldn't I have no idea. Showing that they submitted the deal is evidence that they still want to make it.
 
MasterCornholio said:
What I've seen said is that it can be submitted today. But that doesn't mean it will be revealed to us.

Why they wouldn't I have no idea. Showing that they submitted the deal is evidence that they still want to make it.
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I expect a big tweet from Brad Smith claiming the appeal was filed and that if the UK doesn't accept it that they will starve or something.
 
X-Wing said:
Reuters mentions the 24th as deadline for the appeal. I think they know what they are talking about…
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I edited my comment with more details. I don't know how law works in England. But in the US, the appeal periods typically run from the time of final judgments / orders. And the notice of order invited feedback until June 19th. Reuters may have insight not apparent in those documents I skimmed, but if they skipped a step (notice of final order period) they may have gotten it wrong, with the 30 days running from the date of the final order that issues after June 19th.

I am completely against the deal, but those docs seem pretty clear.
 
sainraja said:
I haven't paid that much attention to everything that is going on but from what I can tell, Activision is just as interested in doing this as Microsoft (which is a shame), so I don't really see them backing out at the cut off date. I think they will stay the course.
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That 67b is more attractive than the 3b that they will get..ride the bus until the deal is dead.

Especially now that they got the EU approval, they have nothing to lose. If the appeal fails, they will get the 3b or more, if it is successful, they will get that 67b.
 
feynoob said:
That 67b is more attractive than the 3b that they will get..ride the bus until the deal is dead.

Especially now that they got the EU approval, they have nothing to lose. If the appeal fails, they will get the 3b or more, if it is successful, they will get that 67b.
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Doesn't mean they will get that 67 billion even if the appeal is successful. There's one more step after that and that 67 billion can look pretty expensive if divestment becomes a requirement.
 
Bernoulli said:
this means they introduced the appeal?
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It sounds like they will.

feynoob said:
If they do the appeal, does that mean they will extend the deal?
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Or it could be MS going through the process to not easily pay the 3bn. Not sure.

NickFire said:
I edited my comment with more details. I don't know how law works in England. But in the US, the appeal periods typically run from the time of final judgments / orders. And the notice of order invited feedback until June 19th. Reuters may have insight not apparent in those documents I skimmed, but if they skipped a step (notice of final order period) they may have gotten it wrong, with the 30 days running from the date of the final order that issues after June 19th.

I am completely against the deal, but those docs seem pretty clear.
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That was my assumption as well but who knows. Maybe MS being extra extra safe.
 
MasterCornholio said:
Doesn't mean they will get that 67 billion even if the appeal is successful. There's one more step after that and that 67 billion can look pretty expensive if divestment becomes a requirement.
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That is why I said "successful".

CMA still has to approve it. If it's divestment, the deal won't happen.
 
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Ronin_7 said:
Appeal is One hour & 16 minutes.

They can still win at CAT and CMA might reverse decision by Summer 2024.

US Appeal will likely take way longer though.
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The big problem is not in filing the appeal, the problem now is renewing the merger agreement beyond July 18 (essentially a renegotiation of the deal), they still have the FTC court battle in August, and now they have to win an appeal against the CMA (which is expected to take a year or so).

Meanwhile, Activision is in commercial limbo, they can't sign marketing agreements etc with anyone while the merger agreement is in effect, not to mention that renegotiating the deal will likely involve revisiting the figures and terms (is it still gonna be 69bn? what will happen if CMA appeal fails? etc).

Lots of new ways for things to go wrong, but not a lot of novel ways for them to go right.
 
feynoob said:
That is why I said "successful".

CMA still has to approve it. If it's diversion, the deal won't happen.
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The appeal can be granted or denied. If it's granted then it goes back to the CMA. Which can still give reasons for Microsoft to drop the deal depending on what's asked.

Just because an appeal happens doesn't mean the deal will go through without any concessions.
 
sainraja said:
I haven't paid that much attention to everything that is going on but from what I can tell, Activision is just as interested in doing this as Microsoft (which is a shame), so I don't really see them backing out at the cut off date. I think they will stay the course.
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This means nothing since they are contractually obligated to show support for the acquisition. If Activision fails to show support for the acquisition and the acquisition fails, then Activision has to pay money to Microsoft. It is in their best interest to show support for this acquisition regardless of whether they bow out of the deal or go all in.
 
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MasterCornholio said:
Doesn't mean they will get that 67 billion even if the appeal is successful. There's one more step after that and that 67 billion can look pretty expensive if divestment becomes a requirement.
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To both you and feynoob feynoob , I would probably remember there is a big difference in the 67bn and 3bn numbers in terms of what's happening to it.

If they do complete, the shareholders are getting their 95 usd per share.

If they don't, the company is getting the 3bn, the shareholders just need to hope that the payment helps the shares retain it's value.

I also suspect that the divestment would be after the merger so ABK shareholders won't take the hit, but MS as a company will.
 
Astray said:
The big problem is not in filing the appeal, the problem now is renewing the merger agreement beyond July 18 (essentially a renegotiation of the deal), they still have the FTC court battle in August, and now they have to win an appeal against the CMA (which is expected to take a year or so).

Meanwhile, Activision is in commercial limbo, they can't sign marketing agreements etc with anyone while the merger agreement is in effect, not to mention that renegotiating the deal will likely involve revisiting the figures and terms (is it still gonna be 69bn? what will happen if CMA appeal fails? etc).

Lots of new ways for things to go wrong, but not a lot of novel ways for them to go right.
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Yeah it's shitty for everyone involved, i don't think anyone actually thought this would come to this.
 
Astray said:
The big problem is not in filing the appeal, the problem now is renewing the merger agreement beyond July 18 (essentially a renegotiation of the deal), they still have the FTC court battle in August, and now they have to win an appeal against the CMA (which is expected to take a year or so).

Meanwhile, Activision is in commercial limbo, they can't sign marketing agreements etc with anyone while the merger agreement is in effect, not to mention that renegotiating the deal will likely involve revisiting the figures and terms (is it still gonna be 69bn? what will happen if CMA appeal fails? etc).

Lots of new ways for things to go wrong, but not a lot of novel ways for them to go right.
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Sounds like a lot of drama. Can't wait.
 
Pollux said:
This is insane. It's YOUR studio, you make the damn rules, if 18 months is disruptive....change the rules, you don't have to go through an act of Congress or something, you're a corporation, just change the rules to make this shit work.

Or, simpler, just hire people, pay them, give them solid benefits, and treat them like actual people and not cogs. But, that's just me.
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This is common in software development - we've had contractors working for years at a time.

The problem is the contractors get paid more because they're transient labor and so don't get full "benefits". That pisses off the permanents who take home pay is less, and the contractors go out of their way to stay in the job and ride the gravy train.

How do they do that? They write code that is impenetrable. As a young software engineer I was given contractor's code to finish - it was like they'd made a puzzle instead of a product. Get paid more, then make themselves indispensable. If they're let go it takes significant effort to work on their stuff - their goal is to make it cheaper to keep them on.

So now we got all these stupid development regimes, code reviews blah blah all that time and effort, just to make sure everyone is producing code that meets the company guidelines.

Guess what happens if you're on an 18 month window? You go out of your way to write shit - what difference does it make anyway? You get paid regardless.

Guess who wants the 18 month limit? The permanent staff - the same ones pissed off at being paid less. And those same permanents will try to get unions in to enforce that.

The corporate managers would be happy if everyone was a contractor on an unlimited timescale - they can be let go easily.
 
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Ronin_7 said:
Yeah it's shitty for everyone involved, i don't think anyone actually thought this would come to this.
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I mean it's not really affecting the consumers, who cares if Bobby Kotick or Phil Spencer don't get their bonuses?

Consumers never get the benefits of mergers, it's almost always C-suite level employees.

jm89 said:
Sounds like a lot of drama. Can't wait.
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Yep it's gonna be great to behold.
 
why did sony wait until after the deadline of the appeal to make their show 🤔

you can't enter new evidence after the appeal right?
 
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