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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)
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But this is not the "FTC outcome" in general as far as I've understood, it's the outcome of the request to get a preliminary legal block of the acquisition in the US before the FTC reviews the case starting in August.
Topher
Identifies as young
Wait a minute.....why does Microsoft even care about speeding up the process? I thought some were saying Microsoft can ignore all this regulator nonsense and do the deal anyway?
Oh wait......did I open up twitter again? Yeah....sorry guys.....I opened up twitter again.
feynoob
Banned
Someone is ready
feynoob
Banned
Dont lose your sanityWait a minute.....why does Microsoft even care about speeding up the process? I thought some were saying Microsoft can ignore all this regulator nonsense and do the deal anyway?
Oh wait......did I open up twitter again? Yeah....sorry guys.....I opened up twitter again.
GHG
Gold Member
jm89
Member
So if the block is rejected, wouldn't that just put MS back to how things are right now anyway?
I mean they can't close this whole thing because of the CMA and that would still be the case, personally i don't believe the narrative they will close over the CMA or removing them from the merger agreement.
I guess they get something that they can use with abk when negotiating maybe.
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Yes that's why FTC is doing it, it's not like they're dumb. If they win the preliminary injunction the deal is effectively blocked in the US for the time being which coupled with the CMA block would likely force Microsoft and Activision to give up.
If FTC is not warranted the preliminary block it's technically the same situation as now, they would still have CMA as an obstacle and FTC will still review the case but without being able to legally block the deal in the US until a final ruling in their favour is reached.
Probably if the FTC loses Microsoft could apply some extra pressure to the CMA in the appeal and re-negotiations could be easier but it's obvious that for FTC the potential benefits of this move are higher than the risks.
It's hard though to understand everyone's true intentions, at this point everyone is using their poker face but imo we're close to the end.
But the real question is...
Would MS be as close to just closing the deal anyway if the FTC didn't file an injunction, if there was any fear of the UK actually fining them that amount?
I'd say no. MS, for whatever reason or thru whatever strategy, have no or little reason to believe that would happen.
The FTC also came to the conclusion that the CMA wasn't going to stop them.
I don't know why it is but I can see what's happening.
Trying to butter up a US federal judge obviously. So the arguments are about US workers, US companies, US this and that. Trying to appeal to nationalism.
splattered
Member
I'm with Brad Smith... glad this shit is being accelerated cause i'm tired of hearing about it 
Thirty7ven
Banned
feynoob
Banned
What an angle person. Hope he is not a bad guy with a devils horn.Bobby's public reasonings for wanting the deal to go through sure are something:
The workers, the savings/pensions, America good foreign companies bad.
Activision Blizzard CEO denies culture of harassment and blames unions for company problems
It’s (not) me, hi, I’m (not) the problem, it’s (not) me.
www.theverge.com
bxrz
Member
Not necessarily.
If the FTC loses the federal case, they're essentially out of the equation. They can keep their ALJ case going on, but knowing that they already lost the federal case, they will most likely lose that one too.
And the results of the FTC case would be used in the CAT appeal. Microsoft would tell CAT the CMA are the outlier because every other jurisdiction accepted the deal. Not sure if that would work with the CAT judge but its damning good evidence.
XesqueVara
Member
Would be Funny if MS won't close the deal and the FTC just took the Bait for nothing.
jm89
Member
But the FTC would not have accepted at that point, so not all jurisdictions have approved. All they have is the injunction failed.
And if there is any evidence of Microsoft actually attempting to close over the FTC that means they probably wanted to close over CMA and CAT for that too work. I wonder how that would look to the CAT judge?
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They're not out of the equation.
This federal case is about the opportunity to grant a preliminary block of the deal in the US.
It won't prevent the antitrust review of the case in the US which will have to be done anyway.
It's the reason why FTC is doing this move.
If they win they have basically killed the deal, if not it's pretty much the same current situation although they will have exposed their weakness. They clearly think the reward is bigger than the risks (including Microsoft actually trying to do some tricks to try to bypass laws and regulators).
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Thirty7ven
Banned
Detecting a pattern in your posts here.
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Varteras
Member
The injunction being denied is not them losing the case. This is a quick, temporary measure that is void of any substantial argumentative proceeding. A judge not agreeing to that is not the same as a full on court case where the FTC brings in its body of evidence to argue the deal and then MS rebuttals.
Basically, the FTC wants a judge to prevent the deal from being forced through before they've had their chance to even argue their case in front of another judge. It doesn't mean their case is over. It means the case would be heard after the fact.
bxrz
Member
The FTC doesn't actually accept acquisitions, what they do is sue to block them. They have the power to do that but they don't accept them. If they sue to block an acquisition on a federal level (like now) and lose the case, then the acquisition goes through in the U.S.
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feynoob
Banned
James Sawyer Ford
Member
Bobby's public reasonings for wanting the deal to go through sure are something:
The workers, the savings/pensions, America good foreign companies bad.
How does this acquisition help shareholders/pensioners?
It's a zero sum game. Presumably, shareholders/pensioners own a diversified basket of stocks that includes both Microsoft and Activision. Presumably they own more of Microsoft. If Microsoft must pay a premium to own Activision, that only helps those shareholders, especially if this acquisition actually destroys value (which it usually does) rather than create value.
feynoob
Banned
Activision games bring alot of revenue, so owning them means more money for MS.
As for the risk, who knows. CMA 10% fine isnt a law yet, so they cant charge MS with that fine.
Varteras
Member
Again, this is NOT the actual case proceeding. A judge not agreeing to their preliminary injunction request is not them "losing the case". It simply means a judge refused a temporary block before their case is heard. That their case might not be heard until after the deal went through.
James Sawyer Ford
Member
That's not what I was saying. It's irrelevant that Activision brings a lot of revenue.
The acquisition of Activision must make more value after Microsoft buys them than what they already have independently. That's questionable at best to claim it's going to create shareholder value.
feynoob
Banned
It already does, as this deal helps MS on the mobile sector. That is a huge growth sector for them.
James Sawyer Ford
Member
That's not what I'm saying
How does Microsoft/Activision combined >>>>> Microsoft + Activision separately
Pension/shareholders own both companies, roughly at market cap weights.
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feynoob
Banned
Wouldnt they get money from MS acquisition?
Anyone who owns activision stock will get that premium money.
James Sawyer Ford
Member
Activision shareholders do, they get a premium.
Microsoft? Well, they could just be overpaying. Their investment hasn't paid off yet and will take time to see if they can actually create more combined value than Activision independently.
But pensioners/shareholders own both at approximately market cap weights so AT BEST it's a wash. It's not good for them at all unless you only own Activision.
mansoor1980
Gold Member
Varteras
Member
mansoor1980
Gold Member
looked like phil is confident in the ABK merger
Iced Arcade
Member
reinking
Gold Member
..but for who?
feynoob
Banned
It's a dice roll.
drganon
Member
Phil is the living embodiment of that Steve Buscemi shirt meme.
looked like phil is confident in the ABK merger
Varteras
Member
El Pistolero
Banned
The Pleasure
Gold Member
Are you playing Street fighter 6?
freefornow
Gold Member
mansoor1980
Gold Member
not yet
The Pleasure
Gold Member
Practicing your Juri combo then?
mansoor1980
Gold Member
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Ar¢tos
Member
He seems ...wider... Is he trying to become Aaron 2?
looked like phil is confident in the ABK merger
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