So or the deal is dead or they will go back to table to have a new deal before July 17th that is it? Becausd cat 1st hearing is july 28th.
Okay, lets break this down cause I can tell some folks are forgetting things here.
- There is no universe in which negotiations between MS and ATVI on re-forming a Merger Agreement, which goes into affect after this one expires on July 18th, didn't already begin or weren't currently under. In fact, in such a scenario, you'd see the parties announce a month or two ahead of time that they had already signed an extended agreement, while listing the renegotiated terms. This isn't the sort of thing you wait until July 10th to begin doing. If a deal cannot be closed by the original agreed expiration date, that means there is a significant reason (either financial or legal) as to why you can't, and that now gets factored into any renegotiation.
If you're ATVI, and you just handed 18 months of deal making potential to a major corporation in the hopes of being acquired, and are seeing legitimate factors that could ultimately prevent this acquisition from going through no matter what (CMA), then setting outlandish terms on a number of variables is totally within your purview. The fact that Kotick did a leadership puff piece for ATVI 6-7 weeks before the expiration date of the current Merger Agreement speaks volumes as to how he thinks things are going to go.
- I've listed a number of reasons why ATVI could outright refuse to re-enter a merger agreement or could simply try to price MS out of wanting to enter one, but its pretty clear based on what we're hearing out of MS' legal teams and the moves being made by the FTC and CMA, that once MS was granted the CAT review date outside of the Merger Agreement (despite loads of Xbox fans claiming at the time that the post-July 18th date that was granted by CAT was somehow a 'win'), MS began to explore very aggressive avenues to close the deal prior to July 18th. This, in combination with Kotick's leadership article, is more than enough to distill that MS doesn't necessarily feel that they will be able to re-enter a merger agreement with ATVI prior to that time.
Heck, even if ATVI were willing to re-enter into a Merger Agreement with MS, MS could also be feeling that the outcome by the CMA is still probably negative, and would seek to save themselves a bit of higher-potential exit/break fees that ATVI will surely ask for should they re-sign a merger agreement. Microsoft has every incentive to try and close the deal before July 18th.