Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Topher said:
Yeah, Microsoft integrated IE and all that ActiveX crap into Windows. Pretty much laid the groundwork every thousands of virus script kiddies.
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Forgot to post this
6lNcXPR.png
 
MasterCornholio said:
Was there a similar situation in the past with both the CMA and FTC blocking the deal?

I'm curious what will happen if Microsoft wins this but the CMA still blocks the deal.
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Likely the same that happened to Meta and Giphy. FTC lost. CMA said no. Meta had to sell Giphy off.
 
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Thirty7ven said:
Was Meta closed before or after FTC?
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I believe Meta closed the deal before any regulators said no. The CMA ordered divestment in 2020, the same year Giphy was bought. Two or three years later, after fighting the CMA, they were forced to sell Giphy at an 87% loss for what they paid.

They wouldn't have had to sell unless the deal closed before they lost the battle to a regulator.
 
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www.businessinsider.com

The sneaky way Facebook reportedly got its $400 million Giphy acquisition under regulatory radar is completely legal, experts say

Giphy reportedly paid dividends to investors, lowering its assets' value so it didn't have to tell antitrust officials. Experts say that was legal.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com

They snuck the deal through under regulator noses. So, it doesn't sound like any regulators made a move on this until after the fact, because they didn't even know it happened.

So it's not a similar situation. Though it also doesn't mean much for the ultimate outcome how similar it was or if the FTC loses its current case.
 
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ToadMan said:
There are 2 different and conflicting terms relating to expediting this.

MS wanted the case "expedited" - they wanted it to start earlier than 22/23 (pre-trial on the 15th June which was the day after this filing - not accepted by the court).

But MS also asked to extend the original 2 day hearing to 5 days minimum - obviously this is not expediting the PI judgement. That's because MS wants to argue over the expert testimony now, feel their case is stronger that way and don't want to wait until August.

So their call for expeditious treatment is actually to increase the amount of court time right now in hopes of avoid passing the July drop dead date.

But I have a feeling that growing this case will mean the judge has to take longer deliberating on all the evidence and risks pushing this past July 12 (the restraining order limit) and even 18 July.

And then there's that Illumina/Grail situation. FTC claim that MS may close regardless of the CAT process in the UK and that forms the FTC's "immediate harm" part of the injunction. MS will presumably argue they won't do that and will abide by the laws in all jurisdictions.

At which point the FTC can withdraw this suit saying they'll wait pending decisions in other jurisdictions as with Illumina. That would mean MS still doesn't get a decision in the US and the FTC maintain the option to file a further PI suit with associated temporary restraining order if they have cause to believe MS will back track on their assurance before July 18.

⏳⏳⏳
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OK I didn't think of this at all, that would be masterful 4D chess on the part of the FTC if they actually thought about doing this
 
Unknown Soldier said:
OK I didn't think of this at all, that would be masterful 4D chess on the part of the FTC if they actually thought about doing this
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Well let's see.

Actually after the post in this thread about AT&T buying Directv I went and had a look into that merger and the extensions.

That was a similar situation to this - the purchase totalled around $65bn and the purchase share price was $95 even!

Anyway shareholder vote was 99% in favor of the acquisition and originally had a 12 month deadline to close. Bear in mind that was a US only regulation issue unlike this more global deal.

When the extensions came (quite short but 2 of them) there was no need for a shareholder vote - the company boards just agreed to extend.

So given that, I don't believe there are any non-negotiable time constraints on MS - unless they believe ATVI will bail out on July 18, and perhaps MS do believe that.

But assuming ATVI are on board there's not too much pressure on that July 18 date.

From the FTC perspective, I'd make the point that MS is theorising about closing despite the ongoing case in the UK, wait for MS's answer which won't say that - they'll either use hazy wording or specifically say they're going to follow the UK order - and then halt this injunction on the basis the case in UK continues and MS have implicitly or explicitly said they won't close prior to that concluding.

Then FTC can work on its own case in its own court as planned.

There's no need to risk continuing a rushed Federal court hearing for now - the rushed timescale is an arbitrary one if MS and ATVI can extend at will.
 
SixPin said:
If the PI gets rejected can't the FTC just appeal ? The appeal resolution will definitely be post July 18.
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Yes they can - the only question is if they will get another restraining order while they consider the appeal.

They got a 14 day restraining order after the failed Meta/Within injunction in which to appeal.

But in that case the FTC dropped everything within about a week and meta closed a day or two after.
 
SixPin said:
If the PI gets rejected can't the FTC just appeal ? The appeal resolution will definitely be post July 18.
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If the PI gets rejected on the grounds that they're just trying stall tactics, why would they then be allowed to use another form of stall tactic? If it's rejected it's rejected
 
 
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feynoob said:
This is what I found so far. If anyone wants to continue, click Alt F and search "banned". Though, you will need to click every page, which is too long.
Bernd Lauert Bernd Lauert
Lognor Lognor
Punished Miku Punished Miku
Captain Toad Captain Toad
MOTM MOTM
Goalus Goalus
SenjutsuSage SenjutsuSage
Thebonehead Thebonehead
anthony2690 anthony2690
A Ash Sparrow
Daytonabot Daytonabot
GhostOfTsu GhostOfTsu
Kagey K Kagey K
Ass of Can Whooping Ass of Can Whooping (He wont stop)
oldergamer oldergamer
EdGalTBR EdGalTBR
J j.k.2021
S Scorpionking426
SoloKingRobert SoloKingRobert
Shi11 Shi11
bentanchorbolt bentanchorbolt
Ozzy Onya A2Z Ozzy Onya A2Z
C Cheezewizz
P PumaDeluxe
Ezekiel_ Ezekiel_
L Lyrical
knocksky knocksky
Phil Spencer CarSales Man Phil Spencer CarSales Man
remember_spinal remember_spinal
JLB JLB
SLB1904 SLB1904
Freeza93 Freeza93
Swift_Star Swift_Star
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Not sure if it's was this thread that got them the ban. But its true that many are getting really emotional over this. Some downright crazy.
 
ToadMan said:
Deja vu all over again reading that…
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It seems to be a copy paste of what they've submitted to the CMA with some changes to accommodate for the FTC...
What's the process here, does the FTC now have to reply to this? Or will that happen during the audiences?
 
X-Wing said:
It seems to be a copy paste of what they've submitted to the CMA with some changes to accommodate for the FTC...
What's the process here, does the FTC now have to reply to this? Or will that happen during the audiences?
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The CMA can put them on hold until July. (Hopefully)
 
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X-Wing said:
It seems to be a copy paste of what they've submitted to the CMA with some changes to accommodate for the FTC...
What's the process here, does the FTC now have to reply to this? Or will that happen during the audiences?
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Find: CMA
Replace with: FTC

Replace All.
 
X-Wing said:
It seems to be a copy paste of what they've submitted to the CMA with some changes to accommodate for the FTC...
What's the process here, does the FTC now have to reply to this? Or will that happen during the audiences?
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As I understand it the FTC brought the case to the court, this is MS response to FTC's case - so now next week they do the case pre-hearing to work out the details of how the hearing will run and then they start the hearing after that.

Although the FTC opposed the MS requested timings. I'm not sure if that has been dealt with yet. Probably has or we'd have heard, but if not that could be on the table at the pre-trial too.
 
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It's January 2024. The deal is finally dead.
The date is 1/23/2024. MS announced that they intent to to buy Sega. The internet is on uproar as that is the fated Wednesday. The FTC and CMA felt bad for MS when they blocked their last acquisition. Out of kindness, they approve the merge and fulfill the prophecy of Wednesday.
 
feynoob said:
It's January 2024. The deal is finally dead.
The date is 1/23/2024. MS announced that they intent to to buy Sega. The internet is on uproar as that is the fated Wednesday. The FTC and CMA felt bad for MS when they blocked their last acquisition. Out of kindness, they approve the merge and fulfill the prophecy of Wednesday.
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dont you put that evil on me GIF
 
ToadMan said:
As I understand it the FTC brought the case to the court, this is MS response to FTC's case - so now next week they do the case pre-hearing to work out the details of how the hearing will run and then they start the hearing after that.

Although the FTC opposed the MS requested timings. I'm not sure if that has been dealt with yet. Probably has or we'd have heard, but if not that could be on the table at the pre-trial too.
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Everyone seems to think that Microsoft will win this one easily.
 
feynoob said:
It's January 2024. The deal is finally dead.
The date is 1/23/2024. MS announced that they intent to to buy Sega. The internet is on uproar as that is the fated Wednesday. The FTC and CMA felt bad for MS when they blocked their last acquisition. Out of kindness, they approve the merge and fulfill the prophecy of Wednesday.
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But... SEGA is protected in Japan. Chances of MS being allowed to buy it are 0.000001%.
 
Ar¢tos said:
But... SEGA is protected in Japan. Chances of MS being allowed to buy it are 0.000001%.
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Wait until US Senators start writing letters to the United Nations saying that Japan isn't playing fair because the Japanese government doesn't allow Microsoft to buy SEGA. It's sad, but I totally think something like that could happen.
 
X-Wing said:
Everyone seems to think that Microsoft will win this one easily.
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Yes … the FTC record in injunctions like this isn't that great (about 70% overall but the recent cases have worse success than that - hence the comment FTC will lose) compared to the administrative court that is due in August where they always win (like 95%).

And if they take the above administrative court win to the federal court (where the hearing is now) they do better (like 70%) even in recent times.

So just going for the injunction seems to make everything more risky for the FTC on the basis of historical outcomes - particularly recent history.

But this is an optional injunction - the CAT process is still out there, so FTC can withdraw if the judge seems to be against them and come back later.
 
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X-Wing said:
Everyone seems to think that Microsoft will win this one easily.
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Second reply because another angle.

The AT&T with Directv deal had many stipulations before the FTC passed it. That included not limiting content to AT&T distribution.

We have the EU remedies. CAT is in progress and FTC just starting. MS can pass this deal tomorrow if they wish - they have to give more… and that kind of compromise may well still come about.

In the latest MS filing vs the FTC, they already said Activision games would remain multiplat, and that ATVI would run as an independent business unit making it easier for them to be divested if the FTC succeeds later.

So while the negotiations are halted in the UK pending the appeal, the negotiations in the US are still on the table.
 
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I don't even understand why MS is allowed to argue the merits of the merger in this court case, considering the only thing that should be on the table is wether or not MS has an incentive to close and bypass regulatory scrutiny in the US or not.

Sorry fellow Americans, but the way the system works looks like a joke for somebody on the outside.
 
Thirty7ven said:
I don't even understand why MS is allowed to argue the merits of the merger in this court case, considering the only thing that should be on the table is wether or not MS has an incentive to close and bypass regulatory scrutiny in the US or not.

Sorry fellow Americans, but the way the system works looks like a joke for somebody on the outside.
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Welcome to America.
freedom-america.gif
 
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