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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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    886
  • Poll closed .
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Varteras

Member
I think the deal being blocked raises some questions worth thinking about. It wasn't blocked on console concerns, but cloud concerns. So what does that mean for Microsoft? Would the CMA have a similar concern to something like EA? T2? Probably not, but still something to ponder.

Would cloud concerns also apply to Sony or is Microsoft's position much more unique? Would it apply to any other company, really?

As far as console concerns, where is the CMA's line? They nearly blocked it when they had data showing it would be very damaging to competitors, but additional data removed that concern.

What would it take for the CMA to block an acquisition, based on console concerns, if a console manufacturer that is highly competitive in the US and UK wasn't going to be denied buying ABK?
 

BennyBlanco

aka IMurRIVAL69
There were theories around MS artificially holding back Series stock and production to trick regulators. The merger was also supposed to have been cleared by now if the CMA hadn’t moved to block it. Did these theories gain strength with Phil Spencer announcing the shortages were over during the showcase?

The timeline is suspicious.

tinfoil-hat.gif
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
I think the deal being blocked raises some questions worth thinking about. It wasn't blocked on console concerns, but cloud concerns. So what does that mean for Microsoft? Would the CMA have a similar concern to something like EA? T2? Probably not, but still something to ponder.
Most probably, yeah, those will be blocked as well.
Would cloud concerns also apply to Sony or is Microsoft's position much more unique? Would it apply to any other company, really?
They will, but they won't be much of a concern. Sony has a 20% share in the UK cloud gaming market.
As far as console concerns, where is the CMA's line? They nearly blocked it when they had data showing it would be very damaging to competitors, but additional data removed that concern.

What would it take for the CMA to block an acquisition, based on console concerns, if a console manufacturer that is highly competitive in the US and UK wasn't going to be denied buying ABK?
The line. Unpopular guess, but if MS were to acquire Zenimax today, CMA might have even blocked that one.

In 2021, xCloud had a 20% market share in the UK cloud gaming market. In 2022, it jumped up to 70%. When the CMA analyzed Zenimax's acquisition, Xbox wasn't dominating the UK Cloud market.

Xbox will have a tough time getting anything even remotely substantial through the CMA going forward. And I'm all for it.

Just my 2 cents though. Nobody knows what's gonna happen.
 

Varteras

Member
Most probably, yeah, those will be blocked as well.

They will, but they won't be much of a concern. Sony has a 20% share in the UK cloud gaming market.

The line. Unpopular guess, but if MS were to acquire Zenimax today, CMA might have even blocked that one.

In 2021, xCloud had a 20% market share in the UK cloud gaming market. In 2022, it jumped up to 70%. When the CMA analyzed Zenimax's acquisition, Xbox wasn't dominating the UK Cloud market.

Xbox will have a tough time getting anything even remotely substantial through the CMA going forward. And I'm all for it.

Just my 2 cents though. Nobody knows what's gonna happen.

So from your thinking here, if accurate, that would mean that Microsoft might have to make a choice? On either abandoning the cloud market in order to acquire big companies to compete elsewhere, or build up through much smaller acquisitions, like their pre-2020 run, and stay in both?
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
So from your thinking here, if accurate, that would mean that Microsoft might have to make a choice? On either abandoning the cloud market in order to acquire big companies to compete elsewhere, or build up through much smaller acquisitions, like their pre-2020 run, and stay in both?
More or less. I think they'd go with their pre-2020 run anyway -- considering the declining state of the Xbox division and the rise of AI as a potential, more profitable investment opportunity.

But I think they might also work towards separating xCloud with GPU after a while and change the structure of their cloud gaming market share that way.
 

FritzJ92

Member
More or less. I think they'd go with their pre-2020 run anyway -- considering the declining state of the Xbox division and the rise of AI as a potential, more profitable investment opportunity.

But I think they might also work towards separating xCloud with GPU after a while and change the structure of their cloud gaming market share that way.
If they separate Xcloud into its own pay tier that alleviates a lot of the issue. MS cloud dominance is because cloud gaming is attached to Gamepass.
 

GHG

Gold Member
Read GHG GHG ’s post again

Activision’s stock price is now trading with high volatility, meaning it’s unanchored to Microsoft’s deal. The market is pricing in that the deal will fail and it’s current price reflects true market value

So yes. If the deadline expires MS will need to renegotiate a much higher price should they want to continue battling it out in the courts

Beta has gone back to being suppressed if today is anything to go by. Very low trading volume and narrow trading range in what was a more volitile session overall as far as the indexes are concerned.

Just one day, but if that's the case again tomorrow then it's once again decoupled from the rest of the market and I suspect it will stay that way until the FTC case has a resolution.
 

Varteras

Member
Supposedly, Microsoft really wants that information to stay out. It was an internal e-mail between Matt Booty and Tim Stuart. The company CFO. Just like Microsoft wanting the contents of their proposed deal to PlayStation to remain hidden, there is a good reason why they don't want this e-mail being known either.
 

Dick Jones

Banned

My money is on Aaron Greenberg. He is dense enough. Although Matt Booty has been recently talking enough shite out of his booty to jump up near the top of the rogues gallery.

Edit: Aaron has risen in my estimation by doing nothing and letting Matt Booty overtake him in general dumbassery
 
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Varteras

Member
But are these talks from execs taken seriously in court?

If they are done on internal company emails, they can be.

Yes. They have intent and could be used as evidence.

Not to mention it is between a very high level executive and one of the heads of Xbox. That is absolutely damning information if true. It would show Microsoft's intent is to not merely compete, but altogether remove competition. Especially in a way they believe is incredibly damaging, despite their outward arguments otherwise. Which would definitely call back into question the concerns of console gaming that the CMA initially worried about and then dismissed when Microsoft, and presumably a few others, gave them "better data".
 
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SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes

lmao. I literally fucking said this. There is no way Sony can survive without COD. 55% of console gamers play cod and even if half of them moved to xbox, sony would lose 35% of its PS+ subs, 35% of its digital store revenue, and god knows what else as a knock-on effect. At least not without significantly downscaling and turning into a different company. Like Nintendo which had to essentially turn itself into a handheld only company.

MS knew this. There was no other reason to spend $70 billion on one publisher when they couldve spend half that and gotten ubisoft, capcom, square-enix and take2. It wasnt about games or gamepass or providing value to their users. It was to put sony out of business first and foremost. I cant believe people here who see everything with a lens of system wars didnt see the biggest system wars flex ever.
 

splattered

Member
I think the deal being blocked raises some questions worth thinking about. It wasn't blocked on console concerns, but cloud concerns. So what does that mean for Microsoft? Would the CMA have a similar concern to something like EA? T2? Probably not, but still something to ponder.

Would cloud concerns also apply to Sony or is Microsoft's position much more unique? Would it apply to any other company, really?

As far as console concerns, where is the CMA's line? They nearly blocked it when they had data showing it would be very damaging to competitors, but additional data removed that concern.

What would it take for the CMA to block an acquisition, based on console concerns, if a console manufacturer that is highly competitive in the US and UK wasn't going to be denied buying ABK?

A phone call from Jim Ryan, obviously :p
 

Clintizzle

Lord of Edge.
Because internet speed and coverage is never going to improve over there, its going to remain fixed until the end of times, right?
Speed and coverage is actually improving rapidly but that isn't really the issue. There are no local Microsoft servers in our Datacentres, they have made commitments to build some here but the priority is Azure and other services.

I am confident when I say Cloud gaming isn't going to take off in NZ and even if we somehow start primarily gaming via the cloud, it's is not going to affect the operations of Sony and Nvidia. UK and Europe I can understand, maybe even Australia, NZ? Nah mate.

Source: I live in NZ
 
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