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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)
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Thirty7ven
Banned
Maybe they sold out and are about to have a monster NPD month.
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Varteras
Member
I think the deal being blocked raises some questions worth thinking about. It wasn't blocked on console concerns, but cloud concerns. So what does that mean for Microsoft? Would the CMA have a similar concern to something like EA? T2? Probably not, but still something to ponder.
Would cloud concerns also apply to Sony or is Microsoft's position much more unique? Would it apply to any other company, really?
As far as console concerns, where is the CMA's line? They nearly blocked it when they had data showing it would be very damaging to competitors, but additional data removed that concern.
What would it take for the CMA to block an acquisition, based on console concerns, if a console manufacturer that is highly competitive in the US and UK wasn't going to be denied buying ABK?
Would cloud concerns also apply to Sony or is Microsoft's position much more unique? Would it apply to any other company, really?
As far as console concerns, where is the CMA's line? They nearly blocked it when they had data showing it would be very damaging to competitors, but additional data removed that concern.
What would it take for the CMA to block an acquisition, based on console concerns, if a console manufacturer that is highly competitive in the US and UK wasn't going to be denied buying ABK?
BennyBlanco
aka IMurRIVAL69
BennyBlanco
aka IMurRIVAL69
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Lawyer streaming channels with their live commentary go vroooooommm.
bender
What time is it?
Varteras
Member
Thirty7ven
Banned
I want full on body language experts.
X-Wing
Member
Too important to risk it. Otherwise it would be 90 minutes of people asking each other "can you hear me?"
X-Wing
Member
I want more. I want a full analysis on who the judge is most likely to side with based on her zodiac sign. That will be peak analysis.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Most probably, yeah, those will be blocked as well.
They will, but they won't be much of a concern. Sony has a 20% share in the UK cloud gaming market.
The line. Unpopular guess, but if MS were to acquire Zenimax today, CMA might have even blocked that one.
In 2021, xCloud had a 20% market share in the UK cloud gaming market. In 2022, it jumped up to 70%. When the CMA analyzed Zenimax's acquisition, Xbox wasn't dominating the UK Cloud market.
Xbox will have a tough time getting anything even remotely substantial through the CMA going forward. And I'm all for it.
Just my 2 cents though. Nobody knows what's gonna happen.
Varteras
Member
So from your thinking here, if accurate, that would mean that Microsoft might have to make a choice? On either abandoning the cloud market in order to acquire big companies to compete elsewhere, or build up through much smaller acquisitions, like their pre-2020 run, and stay in both?
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
More or less. I think they'd go with their pre-2020 run anyway -- considering the declining state of the Xbox division and the rise of AI as a potential, more profitable investment opportunity.
But I think they might also work towards separating xCloud with GPU after a while and change the structure of their cloud gaming market share that way.
If they separate Xcloud into its own pay tier that alleviates a lot of the issue. MS cloud dominance is because cloud gaming is attached to Gamepass.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
It's also because they have the infrastructure and don't need to rent.
Sleepwalker
Member
Nvidia would also love to stop selling gpus to dirty gamers and shift them all to the cloud (tm), so it can charge the shit out of vaporware AI companies instead
GHG
Gold Member
ReadGHG ’s post again
Activision’s stock price is now trading with high volatility, meaning it’s unanchored to Microsoft’s deal. The market is pricing in that the deal will fail and it’s current price reflects true market value
So yes. If the deadline expires MS will need to renegotiate a much higher price should they want to continue battling it out in the courts
Beta has gone back to being suppressed if today is anything to go by. Very low trading volume and narrow trading range in what was a more volitile session overall as far as the indexes are concerned.
Just one day, but if that's the case again tomorrow then it's once again decoupled from the rest of the market and I suspect it will stay that way until the FTC case has a resolution.
Ronin_7
Member
They won't
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Varteras
Member
feynoob
Banned
At least those guys are not useless.
This is fun for ftc.
Varteras
Member
Supposedly, Microsoft really wants that information to stay out. It was an internal e-mail between Matt Booty and Tim Stuart. The company CFO. Just like Microsoft wanting the contents of their proposed deal to PlayStation to remain hidden, there is a good reason why they don't want this e-mail being known either.
feynoob
Banned
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
A company that has always had that mission dynamic at its core? Down to EEE. Color me shocked!
Paging their paid politicians that like to crop up with their bullshittery, where you at?
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Dick Jones
Banned
My money is on Aaron Greenberg. He is dense enough. Although Matt Booty has been recently talking enough shite out of his booty to jump up near the top of the rogues gallery.
Edit: Aaron has risen in my estimation by doing nothing and letting Matt Booty overtake him in general dumbassery
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feynoob
Banned
It's why it's important to not allow them this kind of power.
Activision is the last holding for gaming.
Allowing a purchase like that would destroy gaming and allow other big company purchase spree.
MistBreeze
Member
But are these talks from execs taken seriously in court?
Varteras
Member
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
If they are done on internal company emails, they can be.
azertydu91
Hard to Kill
Yep this has always been how Ms acts...But they always pretend to be the good hollier than thou guys....
feynoob
Banned
Yes. They have intent and could be used as evidence.
Pelta88
Member
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Dick Jones
Banned
Matt Booty, the gift that keeps on giving.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
They don't win PR awards for nothing.
Ronin_7
Member
Why email this to anyone LMAO this email might fuck the whole thing.Matt Booty right now like...
If this is true, it's a wrap for this acquisition.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Well. that's and interview you won't get a second chance on. Booty stank dodged a bullet.
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azertydu91
Hard to Kill
Yep, let's remember that it comes from a company that cried that sony was belittling competition and doing discreet deals....It's crazy how everything they complain about is applying even moreso to them.
Varteras
Member
Not to mention it is between a very high level executive and one of the heads of Xbox. That is absolutely damning information if true. It would show Microsoft's intent is to not merely compete, but altogether remove competition. Especially in a way they believe is incredibly damaging, despite their outward arguments otherwise. Which would definitely call back into question the concerns of console gaming that the CMA initially worried about and then dismissed when Microsoft, and presumably a few others, gave them "better data".
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Thirty7ven
Banned
The head of Xbox Game Studios telling Xbox’s Chief Financial Officer that the plan for ABK acquisition is to put PlayStation out of business?
To arms rat army, damage needs to be controlled.
To arms rat army, damage needs to be controlled.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
lmao. I literally fucking said this. There is no way Sony can survive without COD. 55% of console gamers play cod and even if half of them moved to xbox, sony would lose 35% of its PS+ subs, 35% of its digital store revenue, and god knows what else as a knock-on effect. At least not without significantly downscaling and turning into a different company. Like Nintendo which had to essentially turn itself into a handheld only company.
MS knew this. There was no other reason to spend $70 billion on one publisher when they couldve spend half that and gotten ubisoft, capcom, square-enix and take2. It wasnt about games or gamepass or providing value to their users. It was to put sony out of business first and foremost. I cant believe people here who see everything with a lens of system wars didnt see the biggest system wars flex ever.
Bernoulli
M2 slut
splattered
Member
Clintizzle
Lord of Edge.
Speed and coverage is actually improving rapidly but that isn't really the issue. There are no local Microsoft servers in our Datacentres, they have made commitments to build some here but the priority is Azure and other services.
I am confident when I say Cloud gaming isn't going to take off in NZ and even if we somehow start primarily gaming via the cloud, it's is not going to affect the operations of Sony and Nvidia. UK and Europe I can understand, maybe even Australia, NZ? Nah mate.
Source: I live in NZ
azertydu91
Hard to Kill
Remember when it was viewed as a bad thing when Jim Ryan wanted to end this deal?I'm pretty sure the same people will have no problem with Ms wanting to put Sony out of business.When it is magnitudes way worse but as always it will be brushed like nothing.
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