Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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M1987 said:
Why do people think this is even a option? Microsoft won't be closing Xcloud in the UK,and they certainly won't be taking ABK out of the UK and all of the other crazy shit I hear people saying
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It does seem impossible, but this FTC preliminary injunction is kinda predicated on it being at least a possibility.
 
cmon sony bribe the judge (with help from yakuza)

jim-ryan-yakuza-0-nft-patent.large.jpg
 
DeepEnigma said:
CAT can't force CMA to do anything. They can only kick it back for another review. And if the CMA sticks to their original decision, which history says they would. It's done.
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That's not true. CAT can surpass the CMA and allow the merger. It very unlikely it will happen, but it's not true that CATs only option is to give the case back to CMA.
 
Sony said:
That's not true. CAT can surpass the CMA and allow the merger. It very unlikely it will happen, but it's not true that CATs only option is to give the case back to CMA.
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In the CMCs the judge has already indicate via many comments that they aren't becoming experts in the acquisition details and that expertise is deferred to the CMA on issues of substance, even in the face of contradictory so-called expert opinion from MSTF/ATVI.

The CMA will get the final say within the constraints of the process. Anyone thinking different wasn't listening to the Judge in the CMCs
 
Sony said:
That's not true. CAT can surpass the CMA and allow the merger. It very unlikely it will happen, but it's not true that CATs only option is to give the case back to CMA.
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Only if found irrational. EC threw a wrench into that argument.

The worst case in all of this, is that it will be kicked back, and that has potential for console SLC to be tacked on after these past several days.
 
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PaintTinJr said:
In the CMCs the judge has already indicate via many comments that they aren't becoming experts in the acquisition details and that expertise is deferred to the CMA on issues of substance, even in the face of contradictory so-called expert opinion from MSTF/ATVI.

The CMA will get the final say within the constraints of the process. Anyone thinking different wasn't listening to the Judge in the CMCs
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If Microsoft closes before the 18th it would look very bad for them. I doubt the CAT is going to accept that let the merger pass without any concessions.

I guess Microsoft really needs that extension if they want this to go through without any legal issues.
 
mansoor1980 said:
cmon sony bribe the judge (with help from yakuza)

jim-ryan-yakuza-0-nft-patent.large.jpg
Click to expand...
I caught a snippet of the Arnold documentary on netflix - while the better half was watching it - and noticed Warren Buffet on Arny's ticket on stage. With this held in CA and Warren set to make big money from the deal going ahead, you have to wonder what levers, if any are available and could have been used. The way some tweeted quotes of the judge have suggested she's been a little short with the FTC cutting them short doesn't seem unbiased, if that's what happened.
 
I missed yesterday due to travelling. I just had a look a look at some highlights form various sources. The FTC seem to be fumbling a bit from what I can tell.
 
DeepEnigma said:
This is only an injunction hearing. The CMA still has it blocked.
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obviously ..and because of this many of us think that the trick that Ms pulled on the FTC by expediting their request for a preliminary injunction, will lead not only the bad result for the FTC to not getting the IP but also to the FTC losing the case before the real process even start .the most important effect of all this in a chain reaction is the stubborn and ideological CMA would remain the only regulator in the world still at stake, recalling all regulators who approved the merge and above all the CAT to evaluate the comity as I don't believe it and it makes me laugh just thinking about it ..that the NO of the UK regulators can decide against the YES of all the other world regulators. At most it will happen that the CAT (clearly already under political pressure), trying not to make the ridiculous CMA lose face, gives the green light to the merger excluding the streaming service (xcloud) in the UK.
 
Approved or not, at least the charade is over.

And if you want to judge companies solely on their actions and not on their internal communication, the actions speak for themselves. Sony buys Bungie and makes a public commitment that they will remain independent and free to put their games on all platforms. MS buys Bethesda and cancels PS5 versions despite telling a regulator they don't have an incentive to, and despite their internal proposal for the acquisition never mentioning the goal was to make the games exclusive, in fact it was a decision post acquisition despite their financial analysis for the rentability of the acquisition not taking into account said exclusivity. This was confirmed by Phil Spencer yesterday.

Be pro merger be anti merger, be whatever you want to be, but the truth has been spilled from the horse's mouth.
 
The thing that gets me is that surely a competition regulator should be seeking a balance and siding with no actual individual organisation.
And yet the FTC clearly are attacking MS.

I would have thought any organisation playing catchup would be in a more favorable position (although understandably deals can still be blocked if it would cause unbalance).

The tone from both the FTC and CMA does not in any way seem impartial to me.
 
Jimmy_liv said:
The thing that gets me is that surely a competition regulator should be seeking a balance and siding with no actual individual organisation.
And yet the FTC clearly are attacking MS.

I would have thought any organisation playing catchup would be in a more favorable position (although understandably deals can still be blocked if it would cause unbalance).

The tone from both the FTC and CMA does not in any way seem impartial to me.
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If a regulator raises competition concerns and MS does nothing but obfuscate, deceive, and be contrarian to facts, how can a regulator argue its points which contradict MS's without looking confrontational?

Sorry but this new narrative of "regulators are being mean to MS" is a bunch of bullshit.

Look at how MS reacted when the CMA moved to block. Friendship was over, went out there and made threats to a nation. And then the talk about them closing the deal anyway and go against the law.
 
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VinnyG said:
obviously ..and because of this many of us think that the trick that Ms pulled on the FTC by expediting their request for a preliminary injunction, will lead not only the bad result for the FTC to not getting the IP but also to the FTC losing the case before the real process even start .the most important effect of all this in a chain reaction is the stubborn and ideological CMA would remain the only regulator in the world still at stake, recalling all regulators who approved the merge and above all the CAT to evaluate the comity as I don't believe it and it makes me laugh just thinking about it ..that the NO of the UK regulators can decide against the YES of all the other world regulators. At most it will happen that the CAT (clearly already under political pressure), trying not to make the ridiculous CMA lose face, gives the green light to the merger excluding the streaming service (xcloud) in the UK.
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"The trick"

The fanfiction is at an all time high.
 
Sony said:
That's not true. CAT can surpass the CMA and allow the merger. It very unlikely it will happen, but it's not true that CATs only option is to give the case back to CMA.
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CAT can't supersede the CMA's decision. If CAT finds irregularities, they can ask the CMA to resolve those irregularities and look into the decision again. That's it.

And unless new material facts are introduced (e.g., the CMA made an error in calculating xCloud's market share), the CMA will just stick with their decision because the same evidence will lead to the same result.
 
foamdino said:
I'm not a lawyer, so I have a surface level understanding (at best) about what is likely to happen with respect to this FTC vs MS/ABK thing.

However I think it's pretty clear to everyone that considers objective facts (rather than cheerleading for a brand), that MS/XBox has been building up a fake presence as "the pro-consumer choice". The last couple of days have completely skewered any notion that Phil Spencer + MS leadership are somehow "good guys". They will push out a PR narrative to the press (which has been wildly pro-MS since at least the beginning of the Xbox One gen when they carried water for MS around the used-games/always online fiasco). This narrative is amplified by their loyal social media tribe.

All the while, they are desperately trying to do everything many of us said they would - buy out the gaming landscape to destroy their competition. That's the end game, and MS are one of the very few companies on earth that could afford to adopt these tactics. It is no coincidence that Phil mentioned in the past that he sees Google, Amazon and Apple as competition, not Sony or Nintendo (the other megacap corps could run the same playbook as MS, no-one else can). This is the very definition of anti-competitive.

So yeah, if this goes through in the end (as I think it will due to the vast amount of money MS can leverage as "influence"), then at least the hearing has led to these lies of "good guy Phil" and "pro-consumer MS" been put to rest.

We now have documents and statements that refute the good guy narrative, on record.
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They're business doing business things ensuring their business makes money. Just like Sony is doing the EXACT same thing. No one believes MS is being the saint of the industry but the proposal they've put forth have been good or like by millions.
 
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VinnyG said:
obviously ..and because of this many of us think that the trick that Ms pulled on the FTC by expediting their request for a preliminary injunction, will lead not only the bad result for the FTC to not getting the IP but also to the FTC losing the case before the real process even start .the most important effect of all this in a chain reaction is the stubborn and ideological CMA would remain the only regulator in the world still at stake, recalling all regulators who approved the merge and above all the CAT to evaluate the comity as I don't believe it and it makes me laugh just thinking about it ..that the NO of the UK regulators can decide against the YES of all the other world regulators. At most it will happen that the CAT (clearly already under political pressure), trying not to make the ridiculous CMA lose face, gives the green light to the merger excluding the streaming service (xcloud) in the UK.
Click to expand...

That has "cool story, bro" vibes all over, dude. The CMA doesn't work anything like what you are describing. They are independent entity for this very reason. Some to find some happy path in the shitshow this week to a crumbling, flip-flopping CMA in UK is a silly dream. Fact: Microsoft has to win the appeal before the CAT (which is also not a political entity). That's what has to happen next assuming the FTC loses here, which I expect it will.

Foilz said:
No one believes MS is being the saint of the industry ANYMORE
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FTFY, because a hell of lot of folks seemed to think they were.
 
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I believe the judge discloses what may be considered a conflict of interest, aka their son being employed by Microsoft, before the trial starts. Either party, the FTC or Microsoft could have brought up their concerns then and there and got a new judge, right?

Holding out hope for an appeal based on those grounds is a tad desperate.
 
Calverz said:
I missed yesterday due to travelling. I just had a look a look at some highlights form various sources. The FTC seem to be fumbling a bit from what I can tell.
Click to expand...

The FTC was made to look like a fool again for the second time. There was a few moments they tried to back Phil I to a corner and strong arm him but it didn't make any sense because the lawyer knew Phil couldn't speak or bind the corporation so it was a useless attempt.
 
Jimmy_liv said:
The thing that gets me is that surely a competition regulator should be seeking a balance and siding with no actual individual organisation.
And yet the FTC clearly are attacking MS.

I would have thought any organisation playing catchup would be in a more favorable position (although understandably deals can still be blocked if it would cause unbalance).

The tone from both the FTC and CMA does not in any way seem impartial to me.
Click to expand...
Both the FTC and the CMA are anti-trust regulators. If Microsoft is making anti-competitive moves, these 2 regulatory bodies will counter them. That's literally their (only) job.
 
Thirty7ven said:
Approved or not, at least the charade is over.

And if you want to judge companies solely on their actions and not on their internal communication, the actions speak for themselves. Sony buys Bungie and makes a public commitment that they will remain independent and free to put their games on all platforms. MS buys Bethesda and cancels PS5 versions despite telling a regulator they don't have an incentive to, and despite their internal proposal for the acquisition never mentioning the goal was to make the games exclusive, in fact it was a decision post acquisition despite their financial analysis for the rentability of the acquisition not taking into account said exclusivity. This was confirmed by Phil Spencer yesterday.

Be pro merger be anti merger, be whatever you want to be, but the truth has been spilled from the horse's mouth.
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We going in circles

Is today well know that Sony uses its dominant position to corner the competition .. depriving it of games, dlc, special modes all this obviously spending a fraction (or sometimes for free) of what the competition has to spend in order to obtain nothing lasting. We must not hide behind a finger, we know that if it weren't for the money that Ms has any other competitor thanks to sony's cornering would have already declared bankruptcy. Sony is ruthless and Ryan's total mindshare policy is the same. Given the expansion of the video game market which today is bigger than that of music and movies combined, Ms, as a trillion-dollar company, has woken up and has simply decided to invest by treating opponents clearly economically much weaker with the same aggressiveness as the Xbox division has been treated for the past 15 years.
 
VinnyG said:
obviously ..and because of this many of us think that the trick that Ms pulled on the FTC by expediting their request for a preliminary injunction, will lead not only the bad result for the FTC to not getting the IP but also to the FTC losing the case before the real process even start .the most important effect of all this in a chain reaction is the stubborn and ideological CMA would remain the only regulator in the world still at stake, recalling all regulators who approved the merge and above all the CAT to evaluate the comity as I don't believe it and it makes me laugh just thinking about it ..that the NO of the UK regulators can decide against the YES of all the other world regulators. At most it will happen that the CAT (clearly already under political pressure), trying not to make the ridiculous CMA lose face, gives the green light to the merger excluding the streaming service (xcloud) in the UK.
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You sound desperate to have COD on gamepass
 
Calverz said:
I missed yesterday due to travelling. I just had a look a look at some highlights form various sources. The FTC seem to be fumbling a bit from what I can tell.
Click to expand...

Yes, multiple instances of the judge telling them to change their line of questioning, the google guy completely un-making their case with his answers and Phil handling the responses pretty well. Wasn't their (FTC's) best showing.
 
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adamsapple said:
Yes, multiple instances of the judge telling them to change their line of questioning, the google guy completely un-making their case with his answers and Phil handling the responses pretty well. Wasn't their (FTC's) best showing.
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Google did not "completely unmake their case." There has been plenty of things exposed and all of that is weighed in.
 
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DeepEnigma said:
"The trick"

The fanfiction is at an all time high.
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All of this is stuff with the FTC is gamesmanship. MS wanted this as soon as possible so that they have ammo for extending the deal if they win. For the FTC if they win great. If they lose then MS is still effectively barred from closing the deal within a couple of weeks of a trial that determined they wouldn't. And if they decide to go the crazy route and close before the current deadline then that just shows that the FTC does need more power. The FTC stuff is a game, the CAT/CMA is where the meaningful decisions will take place.
 
VinnyG said:
No, honestly the only game that I like from ABK is at the moment Diablo.
But having all those games on GP is clearly good for the consumers
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No it isn't "clearly good for the consumers" - the games are available now already - why would removing them from some large fraction of the total consumer base so that a smaller fraction of the consumer base can choose to buy or rent these games, be pro-consumer?

  1. Right now all PS owners and all Xbox owners can choose to buy these games
  2. Post acquisition some of these games will not be available to PS owners and all these games will now be available to either buy or rent to just Xbox owners
It is illogical to say that this expands the number of consumers that can access the games - it simply isn't true.

So now your argument is "removing some/all of these ABK games from PS owners is pro consumer".
 
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poppabk said:
All of this is stuff with the FTC is gamesmanship. MS wanted this as soon as possible so that they have ammo for extending the deal if they win. For the FTC if they win great. If they lose then MS is still effectively barred from closing the deal within a couple of weeks of a trial that determined they wouldn't. And if they decide to go the crazy route and close before the current deadline then that just shows that the FTC does need more power. The FTC stuff is a game, the CAT/CMA is where the meaningful decisions will take place.
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Shareholders better get on it quick, last time it took 100 days for a vote.
 
PaintTinJr said:
No surprise Phil didn't see the trap there, and Tom being no better at forming an argument thought it was a win situation for a tweet.

Phil is now on record that he understands the financial situation of how the merger works, and can no longer defer a question as beyond his knowledge, where the the FTC would get that transcript read back to him to discredit him completely.

Only a dumb person would fail to see a smart person intentionally playing dumb and then think they were smart by saying exactly what that person had wanted them to say.
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Except that the FTC lawyer isn't smart in any way, shape or form.
 
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