Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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So Sony played right into Microsoft's hand? lol.....now that's a twist

Well that was obvious the moment that they folded, in more way than one I'd argue as well.

I'd still have liked to have seen how the long term impact of no COD on Playstation would have played out.

Fire Elmo GIF
 

Why this would work with the CMA when they said that it's not about consoles?
They don't care about playstation and they said the remedies by EU were bad

Either the CMA accepted the pause of appeal to prepare better and block again

Or there has been some outside influence to make them drop the case

Either way it doesn't make sense
 
The quote below is from the CMA request for feedback, and the link at the far bottom is Microsoft's submission for "special reasons".


"Invitation to comment on Microsoft's submission on material change of circumstance/special reasons

5. In response to that notice, Microsoft has made a series of submissions to the CMA about developments since the publication of the Report, including the acceptance by the European Commission of commitments offered by Microsoft and the agreement recently entered into between Microsoft and Sony. These submissions state that there has been a material change of circumstances since the Report or that there are otherwise special reasons for reaching a different decision on the remedies question. Microsoft provided its final and consolidated submission on these matters on 25 July 2023.

A nonconfidential version of this submission has been published on our website today.

6. Submissions under section 41(3) of the Act regarding material change of circumstance or special reasons are very rare. It is not a usual part of the CMA's process during a remedies implementation period to consult on submissions received in response to a consultation on a proposed undertaking or order. However, in light of the guidance provided by the Competition Appeal Tribunal on this specific case, the Inquiry Group has decided it is appropriate to do so in this case.

7. Any person wishing to comment on Microsoft's submissions is now invited to do so. In particular, the CMA welcomes submissions on whether or not there has been a material change of circumstances since the preparation of the Report and/or that there is a special reason for the CMA to take remedial action other than as proposed in the Report (and as set out in the proposed Order previously consulted upon), on the bases set out in Microsoft's submission.

8. Representations made in response to this Notice should reach the CMA by the end of 4 August 2023. Representations should be made in writing and should be sent by email to: Microsoft.Activision@cma.gov.uk. 3 9. The Inquiry Group will have regard to any such representations received by the deadline stated above in making its final decision on remedial action. The statutory period for the CMA either to accept final Undertakings or make a final Order ends on 29 August 2023"

 
Microsoft seemingly playing hardball with the CMA, my guess is the CMA will probably block again. I only imagine with the deadline extended to October that the appeal will continue or the CMA will accept which would be somewhat suspect but we will see.
 
So MS plan was to once again offer the cma the same behavioral remedies the cma already said they dont care for?
We know the cma can give 2 shits about Sony, they are out of the argument and they sank the ftc's ship. So i would be shocked if the cma all of a sudden take the deal with sony into consideration.

The cma wants MS to chop off a finger to get this to close.
 
Why this would work with the CMA when they said that it's not about consoles?
They don't care about playstation and they said the remedies by EU were bad

Either the CMA accepted the pause of appeal to prepare better and block again

Or there has been some outside influence to make them drop the case

Either way it doesn't make sense

When did the CMA say the EU remedies were bad?
 
So absolutely nothing has changed. Sony and the console market are irrelevant and so are the EU deals (see above).

It will make a mockery of the CMA if they now approve it, unless MS make substantial concessions. Approving the deal in this state, more than anything else, will prove that the UK is not open for business to anyone but mega-corporations 🤦‍♂️
 
I expected they would have to give up more. If that goes through it sure seems like MS played hardball like I was speculating. No other reason for the CMAs performance in appeals court.
 
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And there it is. They're going to propose some form of divestiture or merge restructuring in the UK.

Maybe we shouldn't go off tweet summaries and actually read the linked articles?
 
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Lol, would be very strange if CMA lifts the block now because those things were already in place and taken into account if I understand the situation correctly.

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And there it is. They're going to propose some form of divestiture or merge restructuring in the UK.

Maybe we shouldn't go off tweet summaries and actually read the linked articles?

But the article also says that MS believes the remedies accompanied by the Sony contract "means that the acquisition should go through". That's the part of the article that folks are talking about. We have known since the last CMC that CMA was awaiting a new proposal. Could very well be it simply adds Sony's contract.

The rumored divestiture was reported by CNBC following the CMA announcement that they wished to adjourn the CAT.
 
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Man, this is why is hard to take any news about the deal seriously. Everyone talking like the deal is in the bag while Microsoft is trying to negotiate with nothing the CMA actually had a problem with. SMH.
 
Man, this is why is hard to take any news about the deal seriously. Everyone talking like the deal is in the bag while Microsoft is trying to negotiate with nothing the CMA actually had a problem with. SMH.

To me, this means one of two things:

1) The CMA doesn't want to pursue this any further and is trying to find something, anything that allows them to back out.
2) The CMA is using this to get the time they wanted initially to defend their findings.
 
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But the article also says that MS believes the remedies accompanied by the Sony contract "means that the acquisition should go through". That's the part of the article that folks are talking about. We have known since the last CMC that CMA was awaiting a new proposal. Could very well be it simply adds Sony's contract.

The rumored divestiture was reported by CNBC following the CMA announcement that they wished to adjourn the CAT.

when you're trying to string a compelling argument, you use all the tools at your disposal.

"We believe the remedies agreeed with the EU as well as the signed deal with Sony are enough to show we can be trusted with this merger. But if that's not enough, we're also proposing this restructuring in the UK" is a stronger argument than "You were 100% right before, our appeal
solely hinges on this new merger proposal"
 
To me, this means one of two things:

1) The CMA doesn't want to pursue this any further and is trying to find something, anything that allows them to back out.
2) The CMA is using this to get the time they wanted initially to defend their findings.
That's how i see it
But now with the deadline moved can the CAT change the dates of the hearings?
 
Did the CMA know that the revised version was like this before pausing the appeal?

So either the CMA accepted the pause to stall and have more time or money is involved and they will drop the case
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Both Microsoft and the CMA told the CAT judge that they were discussing a new proposal.

That's clearly not what's being discussed in the tweet.
 
when you're trying to string a compelling argument, you use all the tools at your disposal.

"We believe the remedies agreeed with the EU as well as the signed deal with Sony are enough to show we can be trusted with this merger. But if that's not enough, we're also proposing this restructuring in the UK" is a stronger argument than "You were 100% right before, our appeal
solely hinges on this new merger proposal"

Perhaps, but we have yet to hear anything official about any proposed restructure, in the UK or otherwise. Everyone is still waiting on that proposal.

That's how i see it
But now with the deadline moved can the CAT change the dates of the hearings?

Really don't know. These seem to be uncharted waters for this entire process.
 
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Perhaps, but we have yet to hear anything official about any proposed restructure, in the UK or otherwise. Everyone is still waiting on that proposal.



Really don't know. These seem to be uncharted waters for this entire process.
We probably won't know for a few more days (weeks?) - there's obviously more being discussed... even CMA's updates reference this:

A nonconfidential version of this submission has been published on our website today.

This was also noted in the CAT proceedings a few weeks ago...

I sincerely doubt we'll hear anything else until an agreement is reached (or blocked?) - all of this chatter is just that... chatter and innuendo of the obvious...
 
My crystal ball that I bought from mystic Meg. Tells me that MS will offer some cloud related Uk specific remedy or divesture together with the change of circumstances mentioned. Then CMA will accept. And ABK and MS will live happily ever after. With Lies Of P Spencer, Brad Tosser Chops Smith, LooLoo Bogbrush and Bobby WankTit all telling each other how great they are. Whilst collectively wanking each other off. The end.
 
The CMA had previously blocked it precisely because it did not see how secure later solutions would be; Her changing positions to me indicates more political than technical pressure; Since what changed in the US and Sony's contract was in relation to the console market and not the cloud, which remains exactly the same as your initial concern
 
The CMA had previously blocked it precisely because it did not see how secure later solutions would be; Her changing positions to me indicates more political than technical pressure; Since what changed in the US and Sony's contract was in relation to the console market and not the cloud, which remains exactly the same as your initial concern
Yes but is the yet to be disclosed modified merger proposal not the key here. Rather than the change of circumstances. Its the main/interesting part left for me.
 
The CMA had previously blocked it precisely because it did not see how secure later solutions would be; Her changing positions to me indicates more political than technical pressure; Since what changed in the US and Sony's contract was in relation to the console market and not the cloud, which remains exactly the same as your initial concern

The remedies agreed with the EU largely relate to Cloud, though.
 
So Sony played right into Microsoft's hand? lol.....now that's a twist
It certainly looks that way.

I guess in the alternate world where hope of this merger being blocked lives, that could be a big own goal for the inquiry group citing it as proof of the market power the merging entity would have, because absent the merger PlayStation would never have tied themselves to terms with ATVI for 10years, where PlayStation's cut is now probably locked in for that duration regardless of their market conditions, and absent the merger looking like it would close PlayStation would never have accepted losing all of ATVI's other content that has been published on PlayStations for over 2 decades to avoid the cliff edge of lost revenue from CoD being removed.

In these documents and even the CMCs it feels like the CMA are constantly talking about the inquiry group in the third person, as though there might still be a complete independence and disconnect between the accommodating behaviour of the CMA that Microsoft interface with and the inquiry group that analyses and writes reports.
 
Our ever insightful Mr Warren says and I quote "Microsoft is also working on a final proposal to modify the merger agreement to address the CMA concerns more directly, which could involve selling off its cloud gaming rights in the UK"
Any thoughts on what that would potentially look like?
 
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The CMA has released a new document (via Microsoft) that explains why the merger situation has changed. Microsoft is the author of the document and argues that we have a significantly different situation on our hands.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64c76983331a650014934e7c/A._Microsoft_submission.pdf

- The EC agreements technically cover the UK and MSFT no longer has incentive to foreclose on cloud rivals (because of the commitments & penalties). The CMA previously gave zero weight to the contracts MSFT offered in the UK because MSFT could change them (which is ridiculous, but here we are).

- The evidence from the FTC v. #Microsoft trial has brought new information to light, and that information should significantly change the CMA view of the deal.

- Sony has signed a deal for #CallOfDuty

- The CMA's market definitions were wrong, as concluded by the evidence provided by Google during the FTC case in the United States.

- Microsoft has put forth a new merger proposal that would be significantly different than the current merger proposal (this is the rumored divestiture of cloud distribution in the UK).
 
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That's not the final report. That was the prelim they sent out after decision and mentioned there will be a final one with all the remedies.

You and others keep saying "remedies," well, what are they? You say it, but you don't share what they are. Nobody has in this thread or anywhere I can find since the decision.

The remedies are there. Don't be lazy. The EU summarizes the discussion around the final remedies from pages 202 - 206 in that document, and Annex 2 at the end of the document has Microsoft's actual commitments aka remedies.

Sample screenshot

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The remedies are there. Don't be lazy. The EU summarizes the discussion around the final remedies from pages 202 - 206 in that document, and Annex 2 at the end of the document has Microsoft's actual commitments aka remedies.

Sample screenshot

45N6di2.jpg
So tell me how this does not entirely favor MS, and how is this a "remedy?"
T6ujq8C.jpg


Yet the CMA did not like or trust any of this in their decision, so how will these same "remedies" now sway their favor, that keep getting brought up?
 
So tell me how this does not entirely favor MS, and how is this a "remedy?"
T6ujq8C.jpg


Yet the CMA did not like or trust any of this in their decision, so how will these same "remedies" now sway their favor, that keep getting brought up?

You imagine Geforce Now receives IAP revenue from games streamed from your Steam library?

Family Feud Lol GIF by Steve Harvey


'Authorized game store' in this case would be Steam, for example. Not Microsoft.

It specifically has an exemption in cases where the streaming service sells the games themselves, under agreement with Microsoft.
 
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You imagine Geforce Now receives IAP revenue from games streamed from your Steam library?

Family Feud Lol GIF by Steve Harvey


'Authorized game store' in this case would be Steam, for example. Not Microsoft.
If you regress the argument just around that, obviously not, but it foes to the released court documents that showed the 10 year deals offered to other streaming services did not have any revenue sharing, even for products they sold.

Now answer the next question, you keep bringing up the EC agreed to "remedies" in context to the CMA, remedies they rejected, so what would make you think they would have a "change of heart?"
 




The CMA has released a new document (via Microsoft) that explains why the merger situation has changed. Microsoft is the author of the document and argues that we have a significantly different situation on our hands.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64c76983331a650014934e7c/A._Microsoft_submission.pdf

- The EC agreements technically cover the UK and MSFT no longer has incentive to foreclose on cloud rivals (because of the commitments & penalties). The CMA previously gave zero weight to the contracts MSFT offered in the UK because MSFT could change them (which is ridiculous, but here we are).

- The evidence from the FTC v. #Microsoft trial has brought new information to light, and that information should significantly change the CMA view of the deal.

- Sony has signed a deal for #CallOfDuty

- The CMA's market definitions were wrong, as concluded by the evidence provided by Google during the FTC case in the United States.

- Microsoft has put forth a new merger proposal that would be significantly different than the current merger proposal (this is the rumored divestiture of cloud distribution in the UK).

So to the CAT judge they said it has nothing to do with the FTC vs MS hearing yet submit it as what's radically changed?
 
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When you're on the precipice of blocking that clown to avoid the shill posts, but also want to give the benefit of the doubt...

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If you regress the argument just around that, obviously not, but it foes to the released court documents that showed the 10 year deals offered to other streaming services did not have any revenue sharing, even for products they sold.

Now answer the next question, you keep bringing up the EC agreed to "remedies" in context to the CMA, remedies they rejected, so what would make you think they would have a "change of heart?"
Why have you ignored the multiple posts that clearly show that that's only a part of their new argument to the CMA, and that the main thrust is their proposed UK divestiture plan?

There was a point some hours back where the "MS is coming back with the same arguments" chatter was going on, but we now know their overall approach includes the revised merger proposal.

I also have no idea why you'd claim that storefronts that sold Activision games could potentially have no revenue share. That's not sound logic at all.
 
Why have you ignored the multiple posts that clearly show that that's only a part of their new argument to the CMA, and that the main thrust is their proposed UK divestiture plan?

There was a point some hours back where the "MS is coming back with the same arguments" chatter was going on, but we now know their overall approach includes the revised merger proposal.

I also have no idea why you'd claim that storefronts that sold Activision games could potentially have no revenue share. That's not sound logic at all.
Because the "divesture" that is being PRed through the fan channels is laughable, and would be against everything the CMA stands for. We started off initially that they would just shut down xCloud in UK :rolleyes:, all the way to now they would devest just the UK xCloud to someone else, when the CMAs concerns were that of a global market as well.

Just seems we won't know shit, until shit is announced. The bare minimum divesture being spouted by the fancamp is painfully transparent. I would be shocked if the CMA somehow looks a fool now accepting the most minimal of terms, but at the same time, not in current year.

And yes, it was leaked that the 10 year deals offered to companies like Boosteroid, "the win for Romania Ukraine," MS kept 100% of all MTX revenue.
 
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Well that was obvious the moment that they folded, in more way than one I'd argue as well.

I'd still have liked to have seen how the long term impact of no COD on Playstation would have played out.

Fire Elmo GIF
I trully believe you will be able to see that ... just dont ask me how
 
Perhaps, but we have yet to hear anything official about any proposed restructure, in the UK or otherwise. Everyone is still waiting on that proposal.
I'd imagine that will probably be deemed commercially sensitive and not made public, except whether the proposal is acceptable/unacceptable... Not fair to expect any divestiture agreements to be made public before they can even legally be entered into...
So tell me how this does not entirely favor MS, and how is this a "remedy?"
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Yet the CMA did not like or trust any of this in their decision, so how will these same "remedies" now sway their favor, that keep getting brought up?
Could be wrong (it's been a long sequence of events) but I think I recall the CMA didn't take any of that into account (Microsoft didn't engage with them pre-decision I don't think?).
 
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