Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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THE DUCK

voted poster of the decade by bots
Difference is that MS service would be attractive.

Sony contract on the other hand will bankrupt them. They can't make all activision/blizzard exclusives as that requires insane amount of money.


Man, you are getting newer cards as soon as they launch. If your computer gets damaged, you lose all those money. You don't lose that with GeForce now.

No it would not, just talking cloud exclusives here. Wouldn't hurt them at all the way things are at this moment, and they would be paid a cut.

Computers rarely get damaged, that's a moot point. As to upgrading graphics cards, you don't lose the equity in the old ones, I typically get 60-75% of what I paid. Upgrades aren't from scratch. And your still ignoring the part about it not working for a large group of gamers.
 

THE DUCK

voted poster of the decade by bots
Remember Wrath Of Khan GIF by BBALLBREAKDOWN


Once a monopoly is established its a lot harder to take down with regulation. The whole point of the CMA of blocking it now is because it will be much more difficult to dismantle once an anti competitive environment is established.

Hopefully that helps.

This could be maybe be accepted if such a policy was actually being applied elsewhere, and acquisition didn't just affect the one stated area. So you block ms from becoming cloud king while simultaneously allowing an anticompetitive environment in.l the traditional console space? (Which is currently a much larger market) Flawed logic, spock not happy.
 
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DForce

NaughtyDog Defense Force
But they are the ones saying traditional gaming has no part in this, if that's the case, currently Activision has no cloud gaming presence of substance.
You can't block an acquisition because their product "might" or "probably" will become part of anther revenue stream, that's kind of crazy.
I can't think of any other large acquisitions that are being blocked by companies potentially moving into other areas.
You're not making any sense.

The CMA already looked at the cloud market and notice it has grown over the past several years. Netflix, Amazon, and others are going to continue to invest more in cloud gaming, and giving Microsoft Activision is going to make it harder for others to compete in this market.

This gives others a chance to compete outside of the console and mobile market.


And why are you saying, "Activision has no cloud gaming presence"? That's irrelevant. The CMA reviewed the merger based on what would happen IF Microsoft acquired them.

Yes, they can block it if it's a growing market and they don't want MS to have a strong hold on it this early. It's just that simple.
 

Astray

Member
That's a whole new ball of wax, by that kind of logic meta should be blocked from any vr game company purchases.
Not necessarily, Nintendo could come out tomorrow with a VR headset and pitch it to people and still gain share. In fact, there are rumors that Microsoft could actually come out with a VR set of their own:

VR doesn't have the same network effects that cloud gaming would have, the two markets are markedly different.
 

Bernardougf

Member
Yep that's how I understand it.

People keep bringing up consoles but they are not even part of the CMAs final decision. That argument was eliminated a while ago with recognition of their math error and coming to conclusion that it wouldn't impact the console market that much.

Its the cloud where they are making their argument because its a different market.
When you dont have a point.. strawman it ... the stupid shill fanboy way of life ... nothing we can do .. let them bend in mental gymnastics for their plastic box or shit game rent service
 
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This could be maybe be accepted if such a policy was actually being applied elsewhere, and acquisition didn't just affect the one stated area. So you block ms from becoming cloud king while simultaneously allowing an anticompetitive environment in.l the traditional console space? (Which is currently a much larger market) Flawed logic, spock not happy.

I'm sorry but the CMA tossed Sonys arguments out the window. This isn't about the console market anymore.

And as to what Microsoft could have done. They had the chance to address the CMAs concerns but they didn't do enough. Simple sketchy 10 year deals didn't make the cut.

Edit:

Proof

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/sony-calls-uk-regulator’s-reversed-stance-on-the-microsoft-activision-deal-‘surprising-and-irrational’.1655144/

Sony’s response, published today by the CMA, questions the regulator’s new stance.

“The CMA’s reversal of its position on its consoles theory of harm is surprising, unprecedented, and irrational”, Sony’s response reads.

The PlayStation company argues that the CMA had “assessed a significant body of evidence” to come to its initial conclusion where it had suggested there would be an issue with the acquisition.
 
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THE DUCK

voted poster of the decade by bots
You're not making any sense.

The CMA already looked at the cloud market and notice it has grown over the past several years. Netflix, Amazon, and others are going to continue to invest more in cloud gaming, and giving Microsoft Activision is going to make it harder for others to compete in this market.

This gives others a chance to compete outside of the console and mobile market.


And why are you saying, "Activision has no cloud gaming presence"? That's irrelevant. The CMA reviewed the merger based on what would happen IF Microsoft acquired them.

Yes, they can block it if it's a growing market and they don't want MS to have a strong hold on it this early. It's just that simple.

Still sounds like a crazy double standard, fine, if you want to block ms from having more Markey share of the overall gaming market, even though they are in third place, I guess ok. But to.cherry pick a very small part of it and say that ms "might" dominate it, is weak.

We are ok with sony and Nintendo having a strong hold on the actual big market but we aren't ok with ms maybe having the advantage in what is currently the smallest part and could easily remain the smallest part.
 

feynoob

Banned
No it would not, just talking cloud exclusives here. Wouldn't hurt them at all the way things are at this moment, and they would be paid a cut.
Psnow doesn't have the money. Sony will spend a lot of money making those games exclusively on their psnow.

Imagine making cod day1 exclusive to your cloud service. That is more expensive than a regular AAA timed exclusives game. It's not cheap.
Psnow can't afford those costs. Hell, they can't even afford COD day1 cost from MS.

Computers rarely get damaged, that's a moot point. As to upgrading graphics cards, you don't lose the equity in the old ones, I typically get 60-75% of what I paid. Upgrades aren't from scratch. And your still ignoring the part about it not working for a large group of gamers.
Laptops gets damaged all time. I had my laptop screen turned to kebabs, because my little brother and my nephew spill drinks and crack the screen with the mouse.

For PC on other hand, it will be the cost and limited graphic devices numbers. That is one advantage which cloud gaming/GeForce has.
You are enabling vast majority of gamers all around the world experience a high end computer experience. That is the limitation that GeForce is breaking.

GeForce now is more feasible than a high end computer for a lot of gamers. Internet is not the same as in the past. People now have fast Internet. So your excuse isn't going to work.
 

THE DUCK

voted poster of the decade by bots
Not necessarily, Nintendo could come out tomorrow with a VR headset and pitch it to people and still gain share. In fact, there are rumors that Microsoft could actually come out with a VR set of their own:

VR doesn't have the same network effects that cloud gaming would have, the two markets are markedly different.

Just as any large company could launch thier own cloud gaming service, given the funds and time.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
CMA is trying to stop a future where ABK content is locked behind a single/strong cloud gaming provider.

Despite not knowing how cloud gaming will develop, how important ABK content will be to cloud gaming, what kind of cloud gaming models will emerge, if ABK will even want their content on any cloud gaming services or which services.

Their decision based largely on uncertainty and assumptions does stop a hypothetical future where Microsoft in 10 years time restricts cloud gaming access to their service
, but it also keeps these smaller cloud gaming providers from having access right now, in a time where the CMA says cloud gaming is having explosive growth.

A lot of assumptions being made based on an uncertain future in the hopes that specific outcomes don't come to pass, outcomes that could be remedied with a remedy package, something the CMA doesn't want to do because it would require their involvement.

The decision to block may also disincentive investment into this growing nascent market. All to stop a hypothetical future that doesn't have much if any evidence to support.
So should the CMA approve the acquisition on a hypothetical future where Microsoft does not restrict cloud gaming access to their service?
 

DForce

NaughtyDog Defense Force
Still sounds like a crazy double standard, fine, if you want to block ms from having more Markey share of the overall gaming market, even though they are in third place, I guess ok. But to.cherry pick a very small part of it and say that ms "might" dominate it, is weak.
They blocked it based on cloud gaming. There's no double standard.

We are ok with sony and Nintendo having a strong hold on the actual big market but we aren't ok with ms maybe having the advantage in what is currently the smallest part and could easily remain the smallest part.

Sony would get blocked if they tried to acquire ABK, so again, you're not making sense.

I don't know why you don't understand that the CMA blocked it because of cloud and not because of the console market.
 

THE DUCK

voted poster of the decade by bots
Psnow doesn't have the money. Sony will spend a lot of money making those games exclusively on their psnow.

Imagine making cod day1 exclusive to your cloud service. That is more expensive than a regular AAA timed exclusives game. It's not cheap.
Psnow can't afford those costs. Hell, they can't even afford COD day1 cost from MS.


Laptops gets damaged all time. I had my laptop screen turned to kebabs, because my little brother and my nephew spill drinks and crack the screen with the mouse.

For PC on other hand, it will be the cost and limited graphic devices numbers. That is one advantage which cloud gaming/GeForce has.
You are enabling vast majority of gamers all around the world experience a high end computer experience. That is the limitation that GeForce is breaking.

GeForce now is more feasible than a high end computer for a lot of gamers. Internet is not the same as in the past. People now have fast Internet. So your excuse isn't going to work.

Not sure why you think a cloud exclusive would be expensive. Not thst many people actually playing on it.

The hardware you are playing geforce now could get damaged too, same with the tv. Not sure that argument works.

I think you really need to try geforce now at 10 peoples houses. 2 of them will work flawlessly, 6 will be "pretty good but some lag", and 2 will be unplayable. 9 out of the 10 people you show it to won't care.
 

THE DUCK

voted poster of the decade by bots
They blocked it based on cloud gaming. There's no double standard.



Sony would get blocked if they tried to acquire ABK, so again, you're not making sense.

I don't know why you don't understand that the CMA blocked it because of cloud and not because of the console market.

It's a double standard because they are sacrificing the competitive landscape of the big area to "save" the smaller one.

Show me one instance of Sony being blocked from.buying anything.......

I get they blocked due to cloud, it's just not making sense in the bigger picture.
 

feynoob

Banned
Not sure why you think a cloud exclusive would be expensive. Not thst many people actually playing on it.
You are denying Activision from renting their business to other competitors. They will need a high return, if you want exclusive.


The hardware you are playing geforce now could get damaged too, same with the tv. Not sure that argument works.
From your side, you aren't damaging anything.
You are only paying a monthly fee to rent their service. Instead of paying 1k for a high end computer, you are putting that money in to a monthly payment, which has the same cycle as your high end PC.


I think you really need to try geforce now at 10 peoples houses. 2 of them will work flawlessly, 6 will be "pretty good but some lag", and 2 will be unplayable. 9 out of the 10 people you show it to won't care.
That is what I am doing. I am using a wifi, in the 2nd floor house. The wifi is far away from me and we have a lot of connections to be our wifi.

The game that I used needs to be connected to the internet, on top of your GeForce connection.

If I can have smooth experience under these circumstances, then it's good.
 
It's a double standard because they are sacrificing the competitive landscape of the big area to "save" the smaller one.

Show me one instance of Sony being blocked from.buying anything.......

I get they blocked due to cloud, it's just not making sense in the bigger picture.

It's an emerging market that's why.

As for an example of a Sony being blocked they never bought anything bigger than Bethesda.

 
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DForce

NaughtyDog Defense Force
It's a double standard because they are sacrificing the competitive landscape of the big area to "save" the smaller one.
They're saving the market to allow others to compete in the could space. That's something you're not understanding.

It would be difficult for someone to come into the console market space and compete against Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo.

They CAN compete in the cloud gaming space.
Show me one instance of Sony being blocked from.buying anything.......
Sony didn't make major acquisitions outside of Bungie, which is still acting as a third party. Maybe if you tried looking more into the CMA's report, then you would know they wouldn't allow Sony to buy major publishers like ABK if they're well ahead of MS.
I get they blocked due to cloud, it's just not making sense in the bigger picture.
It's not making any sense to you because you don't know why they blocked it and their reasoning behind it. You're just making assumptions.
 

Dick Jones

Banned
It's an emerging market that's why.

As for an example of a Sony being blocked they never bought anything bigger than Bethesda.


On top on that the statements that Bungie would be independent going forward and free to work multiplatform as is their wish. Providing they keep their word, they could make larger purchases as long as they keep that caveat. If they break that they can get fucked.
 
On top on that the statements that Bungie would be independent going forward and free to work multiplatform as is their wish. Providing they keep their word, they could make larger purchases as long as they keep that caveat. If they break that they can get fucked.

Yeah.

Both Microsoft and Sony can buy developers and publishers. However there is a limit to what they can buy. If they stick to smaller devs they shouldn't have an issue. But going after publishers like EA or ABK will cause problems for both of them.

This isn't a case of regulators protecting the market leader because they want a monopoly in the market.
 
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Ar¢tos

Member
It's a double standard because they are sacrificing the competitive landscape of the big area to "save" the smaller one.

Show me one instance of Sony being blocked from.buying anything.......

I get they blocked due to cloud, it's just not making sense in the bigger picture.
The CMA doesn't exist to stop market leaders from existing, or companies from growing. It exists to stop unfair competition from acquisitions. Nobody will ever stop MS from buying as many small studios as they want and growing them over time to as big as MS wants them to be.
Sony grew into the market leader of consoles this way, they didn't buy their place.

The biggest purchase by Sony was Bungie by half of the price of Zenimax and under the condition of allowing Bungie to remain multiplatform.
Compare that with Zenimax at double the price with no such conditions.
 

graywolf323

Member
Not just statements, internal communications that include emails, board meeting notes, internal reports.

There's a reason Spencer was crowing about Nintendo and Sony being not as well positioned as they are for cloud.
yep exactly, they openly stated they viewed Sony like Blockbuster and you even see it still with Spencer’s recent bizarre interview responses where he says people won’t sell their PS5s just because Starfield is great

Spencer himself said that PlayStation was trying to grow by shrinking Xbox, that’s exactly what Microsoft wants to do and they didn’t really hide that that’s what this purchase was about until they unexpectedly (to them) got pushback from regulators

Microsoft doesn’t want to just be successful with Xbox, they want to be dominant & have been willing to do anything to achieve that

the CMA recognized their original intentions despite the pivot to “oh we’re just so tiny and small and haven’t had success after 20+ years which is why we should be allowed to buy the largest third-party publisher”
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
Right now, console manufacturers largely take a loss on hardware.

If they can avoid that AND expand their consumer base, that's obviously massively profitable for them.

When you look at PC gaming and having to spend resources optimizing across hardware, versus the promise of giving everyone a 4090 experience without them needing any hardware?

Once Cloud gaming technology "gets good" it'll change gaming forever. And that doesn't even mean that we won't have B2P. iTunes still exists you can still buy albums and sync that with apple music.
 

The Alien

Banned
The CMA doesn't exist to stop market leaders from existing, or companies from growing. It exists to stop unfair competition from acquisitions. Nobody will ever stop MS from buying as many small studios as they want and growing them over time to as big as MS wants them to be.
Sony grew into the market leader of consoles this way, they didn't buy their place.

The biggest purchase by Sony was Bungie by half of the price of Zenimax and under the condition of allowing Bungie to remain multiplatform.
Compare that with Zenimax at double the price with no such conditions.
And yet the CMA protected the console market leader - who is also a very large corporation- and has 90% market share. Theyvalso stopped innovation or advancement in the cloud gaming space - a segment by their own admission is both inits infancy and somewhat undefined. Additionally, the CMA identified MS as the cloud market leader based on GamePass subscribers. Not every single person on GamePass uses the cloud - id venture that's a minimal part of their subscribers.

From a historical context, they said nothing (absolutely nothing) when fast-tracking Disney's acquisition of 20th Century Fox for the same content usage and purprose. Replace Disney and 20th with MS and ABK and ubwinder what the difference is.

Regardless, there's half a dozen ways for MS to move forward on the deal in the UK - if they choose. No cloud gaming in UK on ABK, etc.
 

graywolf323

Member
And yet the CMA protected the console market leader - who is also a very large corporation- and has 90% market share. Theyvalso stopped innovation or advancement in the cloud gaming space - a segment by their own admission is both inits infancy and somewhat undefined. Additionally, the CMA identified MS as the cloud market leader based on GamePass subscribers. Not every single person on GamePass uses the cloud - id venture that's a minimal part of their subscribers.

From a historical context, they said nothing (absolutely nothing) when fast-tracking Disney's acquisition of 20th Century Fox for the same content usage and purprose. Replace Disney and 20th with MS and ABK and ubwinder what the difference is.

Regardless, there's half a dozen ways for MS to move forward on the deal in the UK - if they choose. No cloud gaming in UK on ABK, etc.
Confused Henry Cejudo GIF by UFC

not to even go into the whole Sony is tiny compared to Microsoft aspect, where the bleep do you get 90% market share from in that nonsensical diatribe?
 

Bojanglez

The Amiga Brotherhood
Just as any large company could launch thier own cloud gaming service, given the funds and time.
That path becomes so much harder if MS consolidate the cloud market though. The chance of being able to provide competitive content is massively reduced if MS own them. The company must build the cloud infrastructure (unless they have it), then even if they do that, they'd probably have to hope that Microsoft play nicely with Windows licensing because asking the remaining third party vendors to support an alternative (e.g. Linux) further reduces the likelihood of getting games unfortunately (as Stadia found out).
 
You can lose market leader, but you can't lose monopoly.
Monopoly is worse than being a market leader, as market can change at any time. Like cloud gaming taking over the console place.

I personally believe regulators are fine with consumer chosen monopolies. If someone makes a great product they deserve to be rewarded for it. If not then their product is a hard sell compared to their competitors product. That's how a competitive market should work.
 

feynoob

Banned
I personally believe regulators are fine with consumer chosen monopolies. If someone makes a great product they deserve to be rewarded for it. If not then their product is a hard sell compared to their competitors product. That's how a competitive market should work.
What you are describing is market leader, not a monopoly.

Consumers don't make monopoly, because they have no choice and only the monopoly offer a competent product. While market on other hand offers better value for consumers, even though same or close quality is being offered by competition.

Market leader could lose their position, if they piss off their consumers. X360 to Xbox one, Netflix to other streaming service.

While on other hand monopoly can piss off their consumers and won't lose their position. PC windows is example of that as consumers can't switch to Linux or MacBook iOS easily.
 
What you are describing is market leader, not a monopoly.

Consumers don't make monopoly, because they have no choice and only the monopoly offer a competent product. While market on other hand offers better value for consumers, even though same or close quality is being offered by competition.

Market leader could lose their position, if they piss off their consumers. X360 to Xbox one, Netflix to other streaming service.

While on other hand monopoly can piss off their consumers and won't lose their position. PC windows is example of that as consumers can't switch to Linux or MacBook iOS easily.

Well then Sony isn't a monopoly then. No idea why people are complaining about consumer choice.
 

Ar¢tos

Member
And yet the CMA protected the console market leader - who is also a very large corporation- and has 90% market share. Theyvalso stopped innovation or advancement in the cloud gaming space - a segment by their own admission is both inits infancy and somewhat undefined. Additionally, the CMA identified MS as the cloud market leader based on GamePass subscribers. Not every single person on GamePass uses the cloud - id venture that's a minimal part of their subscribers.

From a historical context, they said nothing (absolutely nothing) when fast-tracking Disney's acquisition of 20th Century Fox for the same content usage and purprose. Replace Disney and 20th with MS and ABK and ubwinder what the difference is.

Regardless, there's half a dozen ways for MS to move forward on the deal in the UK - if they choose. No cloud gaming in UK on ABK, etc.
Not acting against =/= Protecting

Otherwise MS has been "protected" for decades regarding Windows and Office.
 

ToadMan

Member
If you go buy future outcomes then, Sony should be stopped from buying any other software companies (control of console software market) .......ditto on Nintendo (control of portable console software market). And no companies to Meta/facebook.
If we are going to segment markets and apply arbitrary rules based on conjecture it should be applied to all individual areas.

Why should Sony and Nintendo be forced to play by different rules compared to MS? As for Meta - they have been blocked from acquisitions and those same rules are the very ones that are being applied to MS in this process.

Your whole argument is "Give MS special rights!" - weak.
 
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Elios83

Member
We're getting close to EU's decision.
It will be interesting to see if the CMA's decision will have an influence on their judgement.
We know that internally EU and CMA have followed parallel paths, both dropped the console concerns in March, both are concerned about cloud market, EU asked Microsoft to make more concessions on cloud.
The difference is that EU has probably considered more seriously a solution based on a set of behavioural remedies as they fear more the legal and political consequences of their decisions than the CMA.
But with CMA blocking and FTC willing to block, they're now in the position to kill this deal out of the misery of being dragged for an other 18 months while not looking weak and willing to compromise to please big companies.
So we'll see what they decide at the end.

Nevertheless an other important date will be in late July when the current contract between Activision and Microsoft ends. At that point things will need to be renegotiated and given that the conditions around the deal have totally changed it won't be an easy decision to extend the whole thing from both sides and shareholders will have to agree again.
 
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POKEYCLYDE

Member
Why do people conveniently forget Nintendo when talking about marketshare?
The regulators narrowed the market definition to "high performance consoles" or something along those lines.

If Nintendo were included in the market definition, Xbox's marketshare would be much lower, Call of Duty's importance to the success of a platform would be proven wrong.
 

killatopak

Member
The regulators narrowed the market definition to "high performance consoles" or something along those lines.

If Nintendo were included in the market definition, Xbox's marketshare would be much lower, Call of Duty's importance to the success of a platform would be proven wrong.
I see. Good point. However I don't get why bringing COD to the Switch has become such a huge point during the trial if they're a non factor.
 

Astray

Member
I see. Good point. However I don't get why bringing COD to the Switch has become such a huge point during the trial if they're a non factor.
Because Microsoft wanted to push the line that this deal is great for console competition, meanwhile they get to build a cloud monopoly in 10 years.

The regulators narrowed the market definition to "high performance consoles" or something along those lines.
Not just what Banjo64 Banjo64 said, you can even notice that Spencer barely mentioned Nintendo in his now-infamous XCast interview. He specifically mentioned people not selling their PS5s if Starfield is great.
 
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