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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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I know thousands of people with all types of different opinions post here, but it's still bizarre to constantly read that Xbox is dying and that streaming will never take off and then read other comments in this thread about how acquiring Activision will completely upend the industry and give Microsoft monopolistic control over cloud gaming. I do get it to some degree. Just funny that the same company is seen as both the biggest joke and yet the biggest threat to the industry.

Anyway, based on Activision's stock price it doesn't look like this recent news has done much to convince investors that the deal will now go through. At best, it looks like a mild spark of hope for those who still choose to believe.
 

Kilau

Member
Sure - I expect that when the remaining decisions from FTC, etc., are finalized - and assuming that "if" they're approved aligned with similar remedies - that we'll see the CAT appeal focus on the "irrational" aspect of the CMA decision....

But who knows?

More importantly ... Back to ma bourbon..
Pretty sure that “irrational” doesn’t mean disagreeing with other regulators.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
I know thousands of people with all types of different opinions post here, but it's still bizarre to constantly read that Xbox is dying and that streaming will never take off and then read other comments in this thread about how acquiring Activision will completely upend the industry and give Microsoft monopolistic control over cloud gaming. I do get it to some degree. Just funny that the same company is seen as both the biggest joke and yet the biggest threat to the industry.

Anyway, based on Activision's stock price it doesn't look like this recent news has done much to convince investors that the deal will now go through. At best, it looks like a mild spark of hope for those who still choose to believe.
Maybe with how they handle things when they are in full control, which can be a joke, is what makes them such a threat.

You are missing a lot of context and nuance that has been discussed about these types of narrow takes ad nauseum.
 
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jm89

Member
The EU regulator applied the tools available to address it's concern for a long enough timeframe for the rest of the market to react. A decade is also enough time for the EU to craft new rules regarding digital licenses to further assauge it's concerns. The UK's decision to block the deal makes very little sense by comparison.
So give MS a huge advantage in a nascent market with a massive purchases and then figure it out.

Yeah that makes total sense.
 
I was joking a few days ago but this might start WW3. Didn't expect the CMA to respond like that. Lol.

Live footage of American soldiers ready to lay down their lives for Microsoft and the prospect of Call of Duty on game pass day 1.
France Dday Launch GIF by US National Archives
 
So give MS a huge advantage in a nascent market with a massive purchases and then figure it out.

Yeah that makes total sense.
Traditional antitrust enforcement is basically wait until a monopoly emerges and then fine them for it. The EU practices this method because fines are pure profits for them and they love the free money from American tech companies.

Unfortunately for MS, the UK love sticking their thumbs into mainland Europe's eyes and always have, Euroscepticism in Britain pre-dates Brexit by decades. So they don't give a fuck what the EU does and gaming is safer today because of it.
 
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HoofHearted

Member
I think it is going to be harder to convince CAT that the CMA's decision is "irrational" when EC agrees with CMA on the danger to competition. Remember, CAT cannot overrule the remedy.

Agreed - though there IS a difference here since it appears that EC approved the deal with the remedies - and assuming FTC also aligns with EC (i'm guessing China won't care..) - then, IF the appeal wins on irrational (i.e. everyone else approved it with remedies - CMA didn't) - then it'll be interesting to see how CMA responds...

Admittedly I don't know UK law here (I barely know US.. :)) and the entire appeals process with how CMA would respond/react with an alternate remedy (assuming that's the process?)..

But I also find it extremely interesting how CMA has been quick to respond on the EC approval - I'd have expected that CMA wouldn't have responded at all and stay silent..

Clearly there's some additional pressure being placed at the CMA for that immediate of a response..
 

X-Wing

Member
Realistically if they identify the same problems but EU approves it, doesn't it mean that it makes a stronger case for the appeal? because the same issues have been cleared and approved by another big regulator.

Considering that the CAT will not rule based on the decision but on the analysis I don't think it does.
 
The EU regulator applied the tools available to address it's concern for a long enough timeframe for the rest of the market to react. A decade is also enough time for the EU to craft new rules regarding digital licenses to further assauge it's concerns. The UK's decision to block the deal makes very little sense by comparison.

EU aint gonna craft shit. They will sit back and fine Microsoft when things get spicy.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Traditional antitrust enforcement is basically wait until a monopoly emerges and then fine them for it. The EU practices this method because fines are pure profits for them and they love the free money from American tech companies.

Unfortunately for MS, the UK love sticking their thumbs into mainland Europe's eyes and always have, Euroscepticism in Britain pre-dates Brexit by decades. So they don't give a fuck what the EU does and gaming is safer today because of it.
Pernille Harder Football GIF by VfL Wolfsburg
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
I read it as frustrated. Imagine working hard helping to regulate markets just to get constantly fucked over by the power of corporations so large they can threaten whole countries.
Especially when the CMA knows why the EU does things that they do. But hey, you get a USB-C charger in your iPhones now!!! And possibly a sideloading backdoor for big brother to get into your otherwise super secure iPhones.
 
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Bernoulli

M2 slut
Agreed - though there IS a difference here since it appears that EC approved the deal with the remedies - and assuming FTC also aligns with EC (i'm guessing China won't care..) - then, IF the appeal wins on irrational (i.e. everyone else approved it with remedies - CMA didn't) - then it'll be interesting to see how CMA responds...

Admittedly I don't know UK law here (I barely know US.. :)) and the entire appeals process with how CMA would respond/react with an alternate remedy (assuming that's the process?)..

But I also find it extremely interesting how CMA has been quick to respond on the EC approval - I'd have expected that CMA wouldn't have responded at all and stay silent..

Clearly there's some additional pressure being placed at the CMA for that immediate of a response..
doesn't matter

CAT only checks if there were procedural issues, it doesn't care about remedies from others
 

Topher

Identifies as young
Realistically if they identify the same problems but EU approves it, doesn't it mean that it makes a stronger case for the appeal? because the same issues have been cleared and approved by another big regulator.

No, the same issues have been identified with different remedies. The CAT isn't going to rule on the remedy, only on how the issues were identified and whether or not the CMA followed the law in doing so.

Agreed - though there IS a difference here since it appears that EC approved the deal with the remedies - and assuming FTC also aligns with EC (i'm guessing China won't care..) - then, IF the appeal wins on irrational (i.e. everyone else approved it with remedies - CMA didn't) - then it'll be interesting to see how CMA responds...

Admittedly I don't know UK law here (I barely know US.. :)) and the entire appeals process with how CMA would respond/react with an alternate remedy (assuming that's the process?)..

But I also find it extremely interesting how CMA has been quick to respond on the EC approval - I'd have expected that CMA wouldn't have responded at all and stay silent..

Clearly there's some additional pressure being placed at the CMA for that immediate of a response..

It is almost as if CMA and EC are both throwing their weight around trying to establish dominance.
 
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C2brixx

Member
It's posts like this that try and disguise the not so clever console warring. Do better and self reflect.
Is comes across as a bit childish. Why do they even need to respond.
That's just it. The folks running the CMA are not your traditional regulators. They are 30 to 40 something millennials who stood in line as teenagers for PS2 back in the early 2000s. They are emotionally invested in this deal failing.
 

Gone

Banned
Finally, some sense is restored in this world.

The CMA's decision is the most laughable thing to come out of this whole thing.

What a stupid take..
They're afraid that Microsoft would "control" the cloud market with Activision Blizzard games? Seriously? Out of the thousands of games available to everyone, an fps would determine the cloud market fate?

The EU solution is the best and it's exactly why competing cloud gaming services sided with Microsoft on this topic.

6xjYsN2.png
 

Ozriel

M$FT
If I could buy a game on steam/psn/xbox and then have a license to use it on any streaming service I want this benefits me the consumer. That's what all this shit is supposed to be about right?

This is like saying you want to buy Call of Duty on Steam and reserve the right to download and play on PlayStation.

This would be a tough sell on console, and an even tougher sell on cloud.
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Considering that the CAT will not rule based on the decision but on the analysis I don't think it does.

No, the same issues have been identified with different remedies. The CAT isn't going to rule on the remedy, only on how the issues were identified and whether or not the CMA followed the law in doing so.


So at this point is there a venue for MS to offer/extend remedies for CMA to re-review for the appeal? Based on my (limited) understanding, the CAT appeal will then get referred back to the CMA for re-review, right?
 

Lasha

Member
So give MS a huge advantage in a nascent market with a massive purchases and then figure it out.

Yeah that makes total sense.


The entire cloud gaming market is worth less than a year of operating profits for playstation. Nascent is an understatement. The tech is far from proven to know how big of an industry streaming can even grow to be.

Sony has had very little success with it's streaming service. Google, with all it's resources, gave up completely. Amazon is stumbling around. Nvidia struggles with capacity issues. Especially in partner markets where the operator can't subsidize the GPU. Microsoft is the only market player putting significant resources trying to make it work.

The EU's position allows Microsoft to continue it's experiment while allowing competitors access to content for a decade. A decade is more than enough time to see how cloud as a gaming platform pans out. A decade provides all entrants a runway to get their services up and running. Odds are that Microsoft fails and cloud gaming never becomes a significant segment of the gaming industry. The UK's position has a serious chance of killing the market before it goes anywhere.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
So at this point is there a venue for MS to offer/extend remedies for CMA to re-review for the appeal? Based on my (limited) understanding, the CAT appeal will then get referred back to the CMA for re-review, right?

My understanding is that CMA has to address any issues identified under appeal, but they can still come to the exact same conclusion regardless. The time for Microsoft to offer up remedies has passed.
 

HoofHearted

Member
Pretty sure that “irrational” doesn’t mean disagreeing with other regulators.

One could argue this whole deal is irrational.. ;)

That being said - I expect the word of the day in the upcoming appeals process will be "irrational"... Florian already noted it in his response earlier...

By the time this is done - we'll have an entire dialog and in-depth analysis of what is or isn't irrational..

Buckle up!
 

X-Wing

Member
So at this point is there a venue for MS to offer/extend remedies for CMA to re-review for the appeal? Based on my (limited) understanding, the CAT appeal will then get referred back to the CMA for re-review, right?

The CAT won't look at remedies. Microsoft has to be able to prove that the CMA was incorrect in their analysis or that their conclusion was irrational (hard since the EC identified the same risks).
 

Gone

Banned
My understanding is that CMA has to address any issues identified under appeal, but they can still come to the exact same conclusion regardless. The time for Microsoft to offer up remedies has passed.
Which is the most idiotic thing ever..

"Hey, you wanna offer solutions to get things sorted? Hahahaha fuck you. The time has passed".
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
The first FTC hearing will start in August. CTA appeal will take 1.5 to 3 years.

EC was never relevant. That's why Brad and Lulu went nuclear on UKs decision. It basically tanked any sensible timeline and almost nullified any chances to proceed.

Why do you think it'll take 1.5 to 3 years? No way that's true, right?
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Finally, some sense is restored in this world.

The CMA's decision is the most laughable thing to come out of this whole thing.

What a stupid take..
They're afraid that Microsoft would "control" the cloud market with Activision Blizzard games? Seriously? Out of the thousands of games available to everyone, an fps would determine the cloud market fate?

The EU solution is the best and it's exactly why competing cloud gaming services sided with Microsoft on this topic.

6xjYsN2.png
You do realize EU agreed with the "senseless" CMA, they just want to fine MS and their big tech in a decade when they hope things come to fruition.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
Realistically if they identify the same problems but EU approves it, doesn't it mean that it makes a stronger case for the appeal? because the same issues have been cleared and approved by another big regulator.
Actually it is the opposite problem. The CAT don't take issue with the remedies that the CMA decide on or even the method by which they decided them, the CAT's job is to check that the CMA did its job following the process and following the law.

The EC identifying the same problems shows that the CMA almost certainly followed the law and process correctly, and might therefore allow for the CAT to fast-track blocking the the appeal attempt before July, by citing the EC's report because in the areas that matter for the appeal are likely materially the same as the CMA report, meaning the high bar for an appeal is never met.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
Finally, some sense is restored in this world.

The CMA's decision is the most laughable thing to come out of this whole thing.

What a stupid take..
They're afraid that Microsoft would "control" the cloud market with Activision Blizzard games? Seriously? Out of the thousands of games available to everyone, an fps would determine the cloud market fate?

A stupid take? Really? Who said this?

"it confirmed that Microsoft could harm competition in the distribution of games via cloud game streaming services and that its position in the market for PC operating systems would be strengthened."
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?


Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick sent the following email to employees on Monday:

Today, we achieved an important milestone: the European Commission (EC), one of the world’s most thorough and respected regulators, approved our merger with Microsoft. This decision underscores the benefits our transaction provides to players and to competition.

Careful regulators in numerous other countries have already approved the merger. By joining them today, the EC has once again demonstrated their rigorous, fair and sensible approach with the creation of appropriate regulatory guardrails that ensure competition in important growth industries.

Microsoft has agreed to conditions as part of the EC’s approval, including licenses for legitimate cloud gaming providers to stream Activision Blizzard games and enforcement mechanisms to ensure these regulatory commitments are upheld.

This important step provides a proper roadmap for regulators around the world to consider when determining how best to encourage and promote competition in the gaming industry.

There is still work to be accomplished before our merger can be finalized but it is encouraging that regulators like the European Commission understand and appreciate the considerable growth opportunities provided by our industry.

Thank you for your patience as we work to promote fair, free trade, healthy competition and broader recognition for the extraordinary work our people do each day to entertain hundreds of millions of people around the world.

Bobby
 
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