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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)
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Banjo64
cumsessed
POKEYCLYDE
Member
Remember folks, when a regulator makes a decision we agree with, they're smart, brave, reasonable, competent. When a regulator makes a decision we don't agree with, well they're dumb, incompetent and possibly corrupt.
And if you think this post is making fun of you, it is.
And if you think this post is making fun of you, it is.
Ehh. That's it?Ok.
Don’t read it.
I’ll spoon feed it to you.
That's basically same thing that I was talking about. ABK is not on cloud, but CMA is saying they will be because cloud market will be too hard to ignore even without merger...supported by their bullshit analysis of 11 billion-per-year market that will not exist in 2026. Or do you believe that cloud gaming will be 11 billion-per-year market in 2026? Of course, internal ABK documents can say (and there is no doubt about that) that if cloud gaming will explode in popularity, they will put ABK games there, but we both know that no 11 billion-per-year cloud market will exist in 2026 and ABK has no reason to go to cloud today and in near future, since they covered mobile gaming with COD Mobile and Diablo Immortal as a native games.
As I said. CMA created bullshit non-existing market with insane revenue stream that does not exist (I would really like to meet guys who made analysis for increase of cloud market revenue), somehow counted every Game Pass subscriber as a cloud user (which is bullshit) and because of that claimed that Microsoft have 60-70% of cloud market and therefore prohibited a merger because Microsoft "already has dominant position in cloud gaming."
I don't know about you, but I don't think Microsoft's attempts to appeal at CAT are futile. And if they send it back to the CMA, based on their own cloud market analysis, Microsoft can point to the fact that Luna has 200 million cloud players (since every Prime member has access to Luna) and therefore they are not a market leader
.
feynoob
Banned
Thats a strawman argument. My point was how gamepass users who can access cloud games are part of an arbitrary cloud gaming market (that MS apparently dominates) but hundreds of millions of Amazon prime members who have Luna cloud gaming bundled are not.
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Bernardougf
Member
Stupidity, delusions or simple lies ... choose your poison with this people
Banjo64
cumsessed
DarkBatman
SBI’s Employee of the Year
In my opinion there is a huge difference. You can't tell me that many people subscribe to Amazon Prime to get access to Cloud gaming / Luna. The majority of Amazon Prime members have the subscription to save on shipping costs at Amazon, perhaps also to stream movies and TV show.
If Amazon throws Luna after in the mix, you can't assume that a large part of the existing members will also use it / have subscribed to use it.
With Gamepass, however, it can be assumed that 100% start a membership in order to gain access to games.
How many of them actually actively use cloud gaming is another question - but there will certainly be significantly more than at Amazon.
DarkBatman
SBI’s Employee of the Year
I mean... is this how discussing a topic works?So, you are cherry-picking parts of my comment to "prove your point?"
Cool, I guess
And your arguments are easily countered here, to which you react with laughing smileys and "cherrypicking" accusations.
Maybe you should read all the documents to find suitable evidence for your statements?
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
$1 billion for Game Pass + Xbox Live Gold.I'm amazed that even after all those years people are still spreading that 1$/month Game Pass bullshit.
Mate. It never worked like that. If you stock up on Game Pass for 3 years in advance, you need to secure 3 years of Gold for 180$ and then make 1$ conversion (now it can't be done since Microsoft disabled that promo). So from which ass did you pulled that 1$ per month from?
Not to say that your entire post is invalidated by Microsoft recent earnings call where Microsoft CEO said that they made almost 1 billion in revenue from Game Pass. So either you have 320 million subscribers paying 1$ per month (since quarter has 3 months) or average revenue from Game Pass subscriber is actually higher then you are trying to bullshit your way towards.
So basically. You invalidated your whole post because you don't even know how things are working and then by cold hard math
But please. Go on.
Also, you should read up on IAS and IFRS and understand how revenue (and, more importantly, discounts) are recorded in financial statements. This $4 billion per year DOES NOT account for Game Pass discounts and promotional offers.
feynoob
Banned
If you are gamepass ultimate user, you have access to Xcloud.
This lets you play any cloud games that are on the service.
Lets take redfall as an example. If I have the Xbox one, my only option is streaming. But since I have gamepass ultimate, I can stream the game easily, instead of having to buy an Xbox series console.
As long as the game has cloud streaming tag, you are a potential cloud gaming customer.
Luna doesn't have that. But however, they have prime games, which you can stream without needing Luna subscription.
Still, the value of Luna sucks compared to psnow, GeForce now, and gamepass/xcloud.
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The only thing that matters is the data of how many paying Gamepass, Prime, Sony, Nvidia or other providers member are using cloud gaming and how much.
You could then use this data from all cloud gaming providers to estimate a market size in dollar and subscriber terms.
CMA haven't done this, they have made it all up arbitrarily.
Which is why MS apparently has a dominant market share in a market they have projected to be worth billions. Its the narrative they manufactured to block the deal after already deciding to block it for ideological reasons.
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feynoob
Banned
Dude, prime is useless for Luna. You need to get Luna, even if you have a prime account.
I pay Amazon prime, and I still have to pay for Luna.
On other hand, I don't have to pay for xcloud, as long as I have gamepass ultimate.
PaintTinJr
Member
How could the CMA use the Luna numbers? Apparently there's free options for GeForce Now, should the CMA have concluded that all 2Billion gaming capable devices(smartdevices+PC+consoles) all be GeForce Now customers by the same criteria?
Without any corroboration with a user's desire to play high-end console games (locally or cloud) via a conventional interface (gamepad, Keyb&mouse, virtual gamepad or virtual keyb&mouse) and a corroboration of paying for the service (market being about revenue) for high-end gaming content reasons - most amazon prime customer signups do so for delivery, then TV - which Luna fails in all these categories to line up.
Slicker than your average
Banned
MS doesn't need lawyers, the green rats will do the fighting for them
This isnt true, according to the prime website you can access a rotating selection of cloud games via prime without paying for Luna by itself. Same thing they do with music, tv/movie streaming, books etc.
Not even counted in the cloud gaming market, yet GP subscribers are even though most dont use cloud gaming.
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Yeah man lets just exclude the largest cloud gaming provider from the cloud gaming market we made up because it doesnt fit our narrative.
feynoob
Banned
Rotation=/=full catalog
Luna+ has the full premium. You need to compare that to gamepass ultimate. Same way you compare GeForce+, instead of the free 1 hour one.
You can also play xCloud games without Gamepass ultimate too. Look at what they were boasting about last year during earnings call
So people on prime cloud gaming or other cloud gaming providers are not really cloud gaming, gotcha!
Sales puffery is exactly what you would expect from their CEO.
Did those 4 million play for 1 minute , realise its awful and stop or are they regular cloud gamers?
Need to look at the data for MS and all other cloud providers, CMA didnt do this, made it all up instead.
I have been a GP subscriber for years played maybe 10 minutes of cloud just to see what it was about. It wasn't for me, yet CMA has me apparently paying for cloud and making up MS market share.
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feynoob
Banned
Dude, that prime rotation is like Xbox live gold/PS+ monthly giveaway. It's not really cloud gaming.
You need to have full catalog or offer B2P service. Prime Luna is neither of those
I get it but what if someone on prime is playing 5 hours a day of fortnight over cloud (isnt counted by CMA) and someone with gamepass ultimate isnt using cloud (counted by CMA) ?
You need the data , CMA didnt use it , they manufactured it all arbitrarily instead.
The market is the market, actual people using and/or paying for cloud gaming, its not some made up thing by the CMA.
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When you compare console market sales do MS ask how many are buying games, do they play the games for more than a minute, are we tallying PS5 sales for those playing their PS4 library from which there is an actual monetary loss. No.
You have more information about the CMA thought process when it comes to MAUs and data from ABK games than you do from the EC but you're more happy with that conclusion for obvious reasons. Those aren't made up.
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feynoob
Banned
Because you need a library, It's not about hours that defines cloud gaming.
Gamepass has the library, which can be used for streaming. That is why it's on the list.
Look at gamepass/xcloud games.
https://www.xbox.com/en-US/play/gallery/all-games
that is the games you can play through xcloud, while you have gamepass.
MS had plenty of opportunity to present any relevant data about the CMA concerns that were there in phase 1 or their calculations. Instead they used cloud as them offering it on more devices.
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Astray
Member
Genuinely feels to me like the EU.. Kinda held the stick from the middle here.
They gave Microsoft their approval. But in citing how important cloud streaming is, and how they also treated it as a separate market, they also gave ammunition to the CMA in their appeal.
It's one thing if the CMA was the only ones who considered cloud to be important and blocked based on it, but it's another proposition entirely if all 3 big western regulators considered it important, that means the CMA going one step further than the EU isn't impossibly irrational in the legal sense.
They gave Microsoft their approval. But in citing how important cloud streaming is, and how they also treated it as a separate market, they also gave ammunition to the CMA in their appeal.
It's one thing if the CMA was the only ones who considered cloud to be important and blocked based on it, but it's another proposition entirely if all 3 big western regulators considered it important, that means the CMA going one step further than the EU isn't impossibly irrational in the legal sense.
Dick Jones
Banned
Ding ding. The highlighting of the cloud market copperfastened the CMA's position on MS' appeal to the CAT. The EC looked like they couldn't be bothered with an appeal on this as their eyes are on the battle with MS over Azure. MS/ABK only has to fail in the UK to fail everywhere.
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feynoob
Banned
The eu is in a limbo here.
With MS help, they can accelerate the cloud market with free license. Even though it's 10 years, it's enough to accelerate the growth of this market.
At the same, leaving time for MS is not a good thing for the future.
So they have to take the ones that makes the least harm.
The only threat to the CMA ruling at the moment are MS and ABKs blackmail of lowered investment in the UK that might actually sway some weak political figures.
Otherwise there was nothing irrational about the concerns they had regarding multigame subscription services and cloud gaming since phase 1. Nobody was complaining that cloud gaming is irrelevant back then. They were talking about 1 billion new users and justifying removal of the PS userbase with it.
DarkBatman
SBI’s Employee of the Year
This guy can't stop delivering copium to them
After reading this sentence from his blogspot description, I just have to laugh out loud after reading one of his dumb "This will happen!" tweets:
I write what I believe to be the truth in analysis and seek to maximize my "hit rate" in predicting outcomes.
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jm89
Member
What makes it worse is these awful deals. If cma wasn't already hesitant towards behavioural remedies(which we know they are and have always been) those deals will make them say fuck no.
If it comes back to them after an appeal they will probably ask for divestiture again.
EC have given them some good material.
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Dick Jones
Banned
They can still block it if it comes back to them. Just because something is wrong in part doesn't mean the block is off the table. Isolate the issue highlighted and look at the evidence, the error might not be substantial. The main issue is whether the CMA were irrational, and the EC highlighting the cloud issue support the view that cloud is a risk.
feynoob
Banned
Before we celebrate, let me remind you that CMA decision to protect cloud gaming only applies to this deal.
MS can still go ham in this sectir without Activision blizzard. So it's not a fully protected market, until there is laws that protects it.
MS still has a clear advantage and can dominate this market without this deal.
MS can still go ham in this sectir without Activision blizzard. So it's not a fully protected market, until there is laws that protects it.
MS still has a clear advantage and can dominate this market without this deal.
Bernoulli
M2 slut
cma They are 100% not backing down good to see
NickFire
Member
Let me remind everyone of something too.
No one cares about cloud, except if it keeps MS from blocking big games from PS. F cloud.
Pelta88
Member
feynoob
Banned
You say that, because you haven't tested cloud yet.
This is a huge market that is going to dominate in the future.
IllegalLemon
Member
It is a tiny market, if you're short-sighted. Microsoft are second behind Amazon when it comes to cloud infrastructure and the money they've invested in cloud computing and the means to facilitate it is upwards of $20 billion. They have the means and knowledge to use the cloud in order to shoehorn themselves into the gaming market and practically become a monopoly. Owning the second largest piece of the pie, when it comes to cloud infrastructure is no small feat by any stretch of the imagination. But some undermine the sheer size and scope of Microsoft's Azure cloud when it's convenient for them and all of a sudden, cloud is a "minor" piece of the gaming market because Microsoft says so.
The double standards with the delusional fanboys know no bounds. "But... But, Sony & Nintendo make it hard to compete in the console market". And they should because that's how competition works, companies can't just go in and buy the largest publishers because they're either too lazy to compete the old fashioned way or because their management sucks , so they use bagfuls of cash to buy everyone they can get their hands on inorder to compete. Microsoft needs to learn to manage the devs they're already inadequate at managing, before buying anything else.
NickFire
Member
Not my future.
But I’m ok with cloud until MS pays the buyout fee. Then anti cloud again.
jm89
Member
Yeah definitely they can still block, even with divestiture option being offered again with MS not wanting to divest it will lead to a block.
Nothing1234
Banned
CMA doubling down. Love to see it.
harry mason 1989
Banned
Conspiracy theory time
Sometimes I feel like the cma ftc and EC are all working together secretly to kill this deal
Sometimes I feel like the cma ftc and EC are all working together secretly to kill this deal
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