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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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    886
  • Poll closed .
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feynoob

Banned
It most certainly can.

I bet the week after they informed everyone internally the PS5 version was cancelled, the most talented engine programmer/s handed in their resignation letters and got work elsewhere where their knowledge and skillset of console programming would be used fully, leaving massive technical gaping holes in the team, because that talent would have been integral to all versions going out the door in great shape and with better gameplay systems implemented.

No matter how much Microsoft want to push their proprietary APIs, console gaming is technically lead on PlayStation by quantity and quality of software engineers, and has been since PS1 entered the market and removing opportunity for top tier devs to keep pace with their peers on skills is just a guarantee to hemorrhage staff IMO.
I dont think it works that way.
Each team has seperate tasks to do. At most those team will be integrated to the overall production. Plus people wont leave stable jobs unless you are in high position, considering the economic hardship at that time.
Only those who can afford the hit can leave their job, once they have a secure job lined up ready.
 

Neofire

Member
Especially when one of Microsoft's own arguments was "it wouldn't be difficult for Sony to make their own COD competitor".

Okay then, the same can be said to you too, Microsoft. If it's not difficult for Sony, with far fewer resources, to make a COD competitor, why do you, trillion dollar Microsoft, need to buy ownership of COD? Especially when it would come to your platform regardless?
Because they want make it exclusive at some point. Thats the only logical explanation, given everything Microsoft has said and done.
 
Wait until you hear this:



Jamming Jay Z GIF


Look at that smirk on satya's face. He knows what he's saying is total bullshit and the opposite is actually true. Microsoft are deceptive lying cunts.
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
I bet the week after they informed everyone internally the PS5 version was cancelled, the most talented engine programmer/s handed in their resignation letters and got work elsewhere where their knowledge and skillset of console programming would be used fully, leaving massive technical gaping holes in the team, because that talent would have been integral to all versions going out the door in great shape and with better gameplay systems implemented.

What's your handle at fanfiction.net ? :messenger_grinning_sweat:
 

PaintTinJr

Member
I dont think it works that way.
Each team has seperate tasks to do. At most those team will be integrated to the overall production. Plus people wont leave stable jobs unless you are in high position, considering the economic hardship at that time.
Only those who can afford the hit can leave their job, once they have a secure job lined up ready.
Top tier engine staff like the ones that can present at siggraph are always in demand and can move jobs easily in the industry because there is over 10 times the jobs for the talent available.
 

feynoob

Banned
Top tier engine staff like the ones that can present at siggraph are always in demand and can move jobs easily in the industry because there is over 10 times the jobs for the talent available.
That is not how it works.
People like freedom of doing their own stuff. Its why you see alot of high talent people leave big studios and make their own studios, even though their big studios have better quality product and resources.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
That is not how it works.
People like freedom of doing their own stuff. Its why you see alot of high talent people leave big studios and make their own studios, even though their big studios have better quality product and resources.
Where did I say they couldn't setup themselves like HelloGames, instead?

The point is that developers with specialist PlayStation technical skills are top tier talent and certainly don't worry about leaving a job where some douche new owner has just canned the part of the project they wanted to work on.
 
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I dont think it works that way.
Each team has seperate tasks to do. At most those team will be integrated to the overall production. Plus people wont leave stable jobs unless you are in high position, considering the economic hardship at that time.
Only those who can afford the hit can leave their job, once they have a secure job lined up ready.
Yeah, this isn't how job security works in the industry. Folks leave 'stable' jobs in this industry for 'greener' pastures all the time. In fact, lateral/vertical job hopping has been one of the most consistent ways to secure raises in this industry in the last decade.

Anytime Mergers are conducted, and this happens in many other mediums not just games, you do wind up with a talent exodus of sorts. Jobs become redundant, you no longer need the amount of staff you previously did, the parent company who just bought you just paid a ton and now wants to shore up earnings on their books to make investors happy, etc.

In fact, since these acquisitions, MS has both lost staff from these purchased studios due to poaching, staff just getting frustrated with the new org setup and just leaving, or talent who formed the original studio gets a nice payday from the buyout and leaves to spin off a brand new team. MS just announced last week their employees wouldn't be getting raises this year - this includes their studios. You don't think the rest of the industry, many of whom are in a constant need of talent, didn't hop on that and put out feelers immediately?

Part of what has driven this massive surge of AA & AAA well-funded start-up game studios with loads of veteran has been an influx of bonuses from these deals into the hands of devs themselves. That, in tandem with the cost and barriers to do game dev reducing as much as they have thanks to things like Unreal/Unity & Blender, have insured that startup teams of all sizes can get their due.
 

Sleepwalker

Member
I know you joke but if they launched it with a bunch of games of the standard of TOTK/GOW/TLOU/Mario/etc and it ran 3rd party games better than the PS5/Series X then people would buy it. Maybe not those prices for the controllers etc but I could see them charging a premium over the current 2 4k consoles and finding a way to justify it.
Hell, how much is the current mac mini with m2 processor? Like $499 with education discount. They could engineer a console based on that and id buy it for sure if the software is there.

People keep yapping about how their products cost over 1k but the proof is out there that they can definitely aim for lower and have done it already.
 

feynoob

Banned
Where did I say they couldn't setup themselves like HelloGames, instead?

The point is that developers with specialist PlayStation technical skills are top tier talent and certainly don't worry about leaving a job where some douche new owner has just canned the part of the project they wanted to work on.
If you phrase this way yes. People will leave the job once they get frustrated.
Yeah, this isn't how job security works in the industry. Folks leave 'stable' jobs in this industry for 'greener' pastures all the time. In fact, lateral/vertical job hopping has been one of the most consistent ways to secure raises in this industry in the last decade.

Anytime Mergers are conducted, and this happens in many other mediums not just games, you do wind up with a talent exodus of sorts. Jobs become redundant, you no longer need the amount of staff you previously did, the parent company who just bought you just paid a ton and now wants to shore up earnings on their books to make investors happy, etc.

In fact, since these acquisitions, MS has both lost staff from these purchased studios due to poaching, staff just getting frustrated with the new org setup and just leaving, or talent who formed the original studio gets a nice payday from the buyout and leaves to spin off a brand new team. MS just announced last week their employees wouldn't be getting raises this year - this includes their studios. You don't think the rest of the industry, many of whom are in a constant need of talent, didn't hop on that and put out feelers immediately?

Part of what has driven this massive surge of AA & AAA well-funded start-up game studios with loads of veteran has been an influx of bonuses from these deals into the hands of devs themselves. That, in tandem with the cost and barriers to do game dev reducing as much as they have thanks to things like Unreal/Unity & Blender, have insured that startup teams of all sizes can get their due.
Mergers/Acquisition exodus is to be expected, since your job is not secure due to that.

The point was about something else.
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Analyst Brian Fitzgerald, who has an overweight rating on Activision (ATVI) and a per-share price target of $95, noted that the commentary from the European Commission "directly contradicts" the findings from the U.K.'s Competition and Markets Authority.

"In our view, the EU Commission's commentary, which directly contradicts the UK CMA's findings, may help MSFT to make the case that the CMA's decision was based on so flawed an understanding of the cloud gaming market as to make it irrational, though we continue to view MSFT as fighting an uphill battle — one that (between FTC and CMA challenges) could be drawn out over 18+ months," Fitzgerald wrote in an investor note.

Despite that bout of optimism, the CMA has won 67% of all merger appeals since 2010, Fitzgerald added, citing data from Linklaters, a U.K.-based law firm.



Picture this: E3 2025 and we're *still* not finished with this.
 
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DeepEnigma

Gold Member


Picture this: E3 2025 and we're *still* not finished with this.
All by being unable to sign new marketing deals and stifling the standard AAA formula in the process. The war of attrition and race to the bottom.
 

Topher

Identifies as young


Picture this: E3 2025 and we're *still* not finished with this.

Ultimately the only difference between the EC and the CMA decisions is whether or not the 10 year license remedy solved the problem they both had with the future cloud gaming. Vestager says that if they didn't think the remedy would work then they also would have blocked the merger.

"Had we found a concern...cloud gaming is 1-3% of the gaming market. It's a small market. But had we found that a concern could not be solved, well the merger could not go ahead. That will of course go for any other merger."

Both EC and CMA acknowledge that the current cloud gaming market is small. That didn't matter to either one of them. They both were looking at the future of the market. EC says they think they have a good solution. CMA disagrees. It is what it is.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Ultimately the only difference between the EC and the CMA decisions is whether or not the 10 year license remedy solved the problem they both had with the future cloud gaming. Vestager says that if they didn't think the remedy would work then they also would have blocked the merger.

"Had we found a concern...cloud gaming is 1-3% of the gaming market. It's a small market. But had we found that a concern could not be solved, well the merger could not go ahead. That will of course go for any other merger."

Both EC and CMA acknowledge that the current cloud gaming market is small. That didn't matter to either one of them. They both were looking at the future of the market. EC says they think they have a good solution. CMA disagrees. It is what it is.
ECs thoughts on future solutions,
xrd-exrd.gif
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism

"In our view, the EU Commission's commentary, which directly contradicts the UK CMA's findings, may help MSFT to make the case that the CMA's decision was based on so flawed an understanding of the cloud gaming market as to make it irrational, though we continue to view MSFT as fighting an uphill battle — one that (between FTC and CMA challenges) could be drawn out over 18+ months," Fitzgerald wrote in an investor note.

How did EU "directly contradict" CMA's findings?

They both found the same thing: Cloud is a concern, and Microsoft's acquisition of ABK will make the Cloud gaming market anti-competitive.

The only difference between the two regulatory bodies is that:
  • EU said that Microsoft's proposed 10-year remedies address their concerns.
  • CMA said that Microsoft's proposed 10-year remedies do not address these concerns.
But the findings are exactly the same.
 
Just curious, if Starfield comes out and is amazing, would you view that as a success for Phil/Xbox? Or would you say Phil/Xbox had nothing to do with Starfield being a great game?

I think with Starfield they need it to be more than just a great game at this point. Just my opinion though.
 

POKEYCLYDE

Member
"In our view, the EU Commission's commentary, which directly contradicts the UK CMA's findings, may help MSFT to make the case that the CMA's decision was based on so flawed an understanding of the cloud gaming market as to make it irrational, though we continue to view MSFT as fighting an uphill battle — one that (between FTC and CMA challenges) could be drawn out over 18+ months," Fitzgerald wrote in an investor note.

How did EU "directly contradict" CMA's findings?

They both found the same thing: Cloud is a concern, and Microsoft's acquisition of ABK will make the Cloud gaming market anti-competitive.

The only difference between the two regulatory bodies is that:
  • EU said that Microsoft's proposed 10-year remedies address their concerns.
  • CMA said that Microsoft's proposed 10-year remedies do not address these concerns.
But the findings are exactly the same.
The lengths at which someone will go to remedy a concern can be irrational. The world is a dangerous place, parent 1 educates their kid on the dangers and perpares them for what to do in certain scenarios. Parent 2 keeps their kid locked in the basement, never to see the outside world because something bad may happen. One decision is irrational even though both parents view the world as dangerous.

If this ever goes to appeal, and Microsoft wants to argue irrationality, they'll probably argue that the CMA's decision to block was improportionate to what would have sufficed.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
The lengths at which someone will go to remedy a concern can be irrational. The world is a dangerous place, parent 1 educates their kid on the dangers and perpares them for what to do in certain scenarios. Parent 2 keeps their kid locked in the basement, never to see the outside world because something bad may happen. One decision is irrational even though both parents view the world as dangerous.

If this ever goes to appeal, and Microsoft wants to argue irrationality, they'll probably argue that the CMA's decision to block was improportionate to what would have sufficed.
It's not a merit review, so that appeal can't be the basis.

They can only appeal for procedural irregularities.
 

POKEYCLYDE

Member
But that's on the assumption that the remedy is severe. Others can argue that the CMA's remedy was adequate, and it was EU's that was very lenient and inadequate.
But when looking at the larger regulatory landscape, the CMA is the only regulator to have gone this severe. Every other regulator has either let it pass with no concessions or in the EU's case, had behavioral remedies. We'll have to wait to see what the courts decide about the FTC's decision, but if Microsoft wins there, that could be used as further support for the view that a "block" is irrational.
 
Yeah, but, if it's a 10/10 do you attribute that game's success to Phil/Xbox?

Consistency is important. If you lay the blame on Phil/Xbox for Redfall's failure, but wouldn't give kudos to Phil/Xbox for a game's success, it really speaks to how bias you are.

Well he's responsible for a lot of things in Xbox. While he didn't make the game if it releases in a good state he should be congratulated for that.

But I don't believe quality is coming into question here. What he brought up in the interview was about Starfield moving systems. If the games good and its marketed well it should help pull Xboxs.

If it's a good game he should be applauded for it. If it improves Xbox sales a ton he should be congratulated for that as well. After all releasing good games isn't his only obligation but making sure the platform does well is another one that he's responsible for.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
But when looking at the larger regulatory landscape, the CMA is the only regulator to have gone this severe. Every other regulator has either let it pass with no concessions or in the EU's case, had behavioral remedies. We'll have to wait to see what the courts decide about the FTC's decision, but if Microsoft wins there, that could be used as further support for the view that a "block" is irrational.
There are 4 regulators that are big and actually matter enough for Microsoft and ABK to mention by name. The approval of this merger depended on their unanimous approval.
  • FTC = Has blocked ❌
  • CMA = Has blocked ❌
  • EU = Behavioral remedies ✅
  • China (?) = No decision yet. ⚠️
So as of now, EU is in the minority as both the FTC and CMA have blocked this acquisition. Even if China approves, it'll only be balanced.
 

POKEYCLYDE

Member
Well he's responsible for a lot of things in Xbox. While he didn't make the game if it releases in a good state he should be congratulated for that.

But I don't believe quality is coming into question here. What he brought up in the interview was about Starfield moving systems. If the games good and its marketed well it should help pull Xboxs.

If it's a good game he should be applauded for it. If it improves Xbox sales a ton he should be congratulated for that as well. After all releasing good games isn't his only obligation but making sure the platform does well is another one that he's responsible for.
Okay so you would give Phil/Xbox kudos for Starfield's success, as long as you're consistent that's good.
There are 4 regulators that are big and actually matter enough for Microsoft and ABK to mention by name. The approval of this merger depended on their unanimous approval.
  • FTC = Has blocked ❌
  • CMA = Has blocked ❌
  • EU = Behavioral remedies ✅
  • China (?) = No decision yet. ⚠️
So as of now, EU is in the minority as both the FTC and CMA have blocked this acquisition. Even if China approves, it'll only be balanced.
FTC hasn't blocked yet. They're suing to block. Much different process with more checks and balances in the states. If the courts decide the FTC is way off base, that would leave the CMA the only regulator blocking.
 

Ronin_7

Member
Microsoft has more studios than Sony.

They should be able to do better.
More studios but mostly of smaller size no? Just checked most their studios are not that Big... Per example Naughty Dog alone is probably 5/6 times as big as Initiative and Ninja Theory combined...

Bungie alone will probably be much bigger than Bethesda in 2026/2027, Bethesda/Zenimax employee around 2300 people, Bungie went from 800 to almost 1600 since January 2022 (according to LinkedIn) and they're still recruiting massively.
 

Nothing1234

Banned
Okay so you would give Phil/Xbox kudos for Starfield's success, as long as you're consistent that's good.

FTC hasn't blocked yet. They're suing to block. Much different process with more checks and balances in the states. If the courts decide the FTC is way off base, that would leave the CMA the only regulator blocking.
Which is fine as the CMA have to look at their own market first and foremost.
 
There are 4 regulators that are big and actually matter enough for Microsoft and ABK to mention by name. The approval of this merger depended on their unanimous approval.
  • FTC = Has blocked ❌
  • CMA = Has blocked ❌
  • EU = Behavioral remedies ✅
  • China (?) = No decision yet. ⚠️
So as of now, EU is in the minority as both the FTC and CMA have blocked this acquisition. Even if China approves, it'll only be balanced.

Maybe they could deal with just the FTC block but the CMA one is a really big issue for them. Just because they can't really fight it like they could with the FTC.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Okay so you would give Phil/Xbox kudos for Starfield's success, as long as you're consistent that's good.

FTC hasn't blocked yet. They're suing to block. Much different process with more checks and balances in the states. If the courts decide the FTC is way off base, that would leave the CMA the only regulator blocking.
The courts may change FTC's decision, but FTC itself has blocked the acquisition. And that's why there is a court case now.

Same thing (but different routes and procedures) with the CMA. The CMA has blocked the acquisition, and an appeal may or may not change it.

The current status, however, is that both FTC and the CMA are against this acquisition because of their concerns that Microsoft's remedies were not sufficient enough to address.
 

Ronin_7

Member
Okay so you would give Phil/Xbox kudos for Starfield's success, as long as you're consistent that's good.

FTC hasn't blocked yet. They're suing to block. Much different process with more checks and balances in the states. If the courts decide the FTC is way off base, that would leave the CMA the only regulator blocking.
This will take at least 2 years in Court before a Final decision by FTC including appeals etc... And FTC can even go to Supreme Court if needed.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Maybe they could deal with just the FTC block but the CMA one is a really big issue for them. Just because they can't really fight it like they could with the FTC.
True. Different degrees of probabilities there.

But I do think people are underestimating the FTC. If it's a transparent and unbiased decision, I think Microsoft will find it difficult to win the case against FTC. I'm basing this not on Microsoft's lobbying potential but on Microsoft's market share in the USA.
  • MS has the least amount of presence in the EU (20% vs. 80%) = the deal got approved.
  • MS has a moderate level of presence in the UK (44% vs. 56%) = the deal got blocked.
  • MS has a good level of presence in the USA (45% vs. 55%) = the deal may get blocked.
I'm using Microsoft's console market share for convenience, but the point stands. The USA is the strongest market for Xbox (for consoles as well as Cloud). The UK was only the 2nd biggest, and it got blocked.
 

Nico_D

Member
The courts may change FTC's decision, but FTC itself has blocked the acquisition. And that's why there is a court case now.

FTC can't block anything by itself, they have to do it through court process. Same end result but the process is different. The US decision is more "delayed" than factually blocked. That's how I understand this.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
There are 4 regulators that are big and actually matter enough for Microsoft and ABK to mention by name. The approval of this merger depended on their unanimous approval.
  • FTC = Has blocked ❌
  • CMA = Has blocked ❌
  • EU = Behavioral remedies ✅
  • China (?) = No decision yet. ⚠️
So as of now, EU is in the minority as both the FTC and CMA have blocked this acquisition. Even if China approves, it'll only be balanced.
Their two largest markets are against it, FWIW.
 
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POKEYCLYDE

Member
And that’s absolutely fine. Regulation doesn’t work on an international consensus basis. The CMA’s remit is to primarily focus on the impact on the UK.

‘But everyone else’ is not a valid defence for MS.
It is in a case of proving irrationality.

Many of you are pointing to the fact that the EU has similar concerns around cloud and saying that kills the chance of appeal. But then turn around and say other regulators decisions have no bearing on the CMA's appeal process.

I'm not saying there's hope for a successful appeal, I personally think that ABK will bounce out with their $3B come July.

But there are avenues Microsoft can take if ABK decides to extend and see the appeal process through. Barring a bomb shell illegality accusation, arguing irrationality is Microsoft's best chance at winning their appeal. EU having the same concerns around cloud and FTC suing to block lessens the chance at a successful appeal. But if the US courts decide a block isn't appropriate and every other regulator decides that no concessions or behavioral remedies are sufficient, that's something Microsoft can use to say the severity of CMA's remedy is irrational.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
It is in a case of proving irrationality.

Many of you are pointing to the fact that the EU has similar concerns around cloud and saying that kills the chance of appeal. But then turn around and say other regulators decisions have no bearing on the CMA's appeal process.

I'm not saying there's hope for a successful appeal, I personally think that ABK will bounce out with their $3B come July.

But there are avenues Microsoft can take if ABK decides to extend and see the appeal process through. Barring a bomb shell illegality accusation, arguing irrationality is Microsoft's best chance at winning their appeal. EU having the same concerns around cloud and FTC suing to block lessens the chance at a successful appeal. But if the US courts decide a block isn't appropriate and every other regulator decides that no concessions or behavioral remedies are sufficient, that's something Microsoft can use to say the severity of CMA's remedy is irrational.
The CMA was criticized for citing Cloud as a concern. They were labeled as biased and in cahoots with Sony.

EU arriving at the same conclusion that Cloud is a valid concern legitimizes CMA's stance. Both regulatory bodies arrived at the same concerns. They don't have to arrive at the same decision, too, but it is not in doubt anymore that CMA's concerns weren't legitimate and valid.
 
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