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[ZhugeEX]

For this quarter I estimate the following shipped numbers:

~1700k = Xbox One
~700k = Xbox 360

5100k as of Q1 2014 is an official figure.

I would estimate that in the past two quarters we had ~550k + ~1700k = ~2250k.

So my ESTIMATE would be that Xbox One would be at around ~7350k shipped worldwide as of September 30th 2014. I'd expect sell through to be less than 6.5 million

I'd expect PS4 to be over 13 million shipped in the same time frame.

Edit (Jan 2015) : I'd say 7.4m shipped at this point actually. Just an extra 50k haha

 

[allan-bh]

Um, we knew the splits for 360 and XB1 up until march, so don't worry looking at the data that far back.

Q4 last year XB1 did 3.9m, Q1 this year it did 1.1m (bringing total to 5, end of March).

Then Q2 360 + XB1 did 1.1m combined (as I have said I assume this is around 50/50 given last years 360 numbers and the drop it experienced YOY the previous Q, feel free to argue this tho) so 550k. 5.55m

Then this Q. 2.4m. 360 did 1.2m last year. I mean even if 360 was flat (it most certainly wasn't) that is still 1.2m for XB1, so 6.75m.

Likelyhood is 360 dropped 50% yoy and XB1 shipped 1.8m~ so around 7.4m~

Good calculation. I bet Xbox One is at least with 7m shipped, which is a pretty solid number.

PS4 makes Xbox One seems much more bad than really is.

 

[HighResTomato]

And Sony's own revenue exceeds $70 billion yearly, which is four times their current market cap.

Your point?

While bleeding money and a junk rated credit score.

Spoiler

EDIT:BTW we are talking per Q here not yearly.

 

[10k]

They just pulled a vita. Combine PSP and Vita sales. Now combine Xbox One and 360 sales.

 

[D4Danger]

No, I'm not dumb. I just want to know where he got that 24 billion figure from, I'm always interested in reading stuff like this.

http://www.microsoft.com/investor/E...s/PressReleaseAndWebcast/FY15/Q1/default.aspx

revenue was $23.20 billion not profit

 

[KOHIPEET]

They need a Bone + 360 bundle for the holidays, lol.

What name could it have?

Xbox: The Don Mattrick collection?

 

[Duxxy3]

keep holding onto that, it won't last that much longer

Not even sure it's true right now.

The numbers are a big improvement from the previous quarter. Less than the PS4, but the numbers are getting better.

 

[Miles X]

Good calculation. I bet Xbox One is at least with 7m shipped, wich is a pretty solid number.

PS4 makes Xbox One seems much more bad than really is.

Indeed. When the year is over it's going to be something like 18m PS4 vs 11.5m XB1. Amazing for PS4, and XB1 is behind and can't catch up, but it's not like PS2 vs XBOX some like to make out.

Not even sure it's true right now.

The numbers are a big improvement from the previous quarter. Less than the PS4, but the numbers are getting better.

Entirely plausable XB1 > WiiU in shipments. (this is forward accounting for WiiU this Q, unless it surpassed everyones expectations!!)

 

[JaggedSac]

What name could it have?

Xbox: The Don Mattrick collection?

lol

 

[Super_Cobra]

They need a Bone + 360 bundle for the holidays, lol.

They need a xbone with ps4 bundle at this point lol.

 

[Chobel]

Not bad. One sales will pick up as more games come and the dash/media functionality improves.

Anecdotally, the word of mouth around the Xbox One is pretty good.

I really doubt media functionality (or any other OS update for that matter) is going to increase xbone sales.

 

[Zones]

While bleeding money and a junk rated credit score.

And that's relevant to your previous comment how?

Great contribution to the topic by the way.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Not too shabby.

Better than I expected.

 

[mcrommert]

I really doubt media functionality (or any other OS update for that matter) is going to increase xbone sales.

It will to non gamers...there is a market (albeit small) for those who want htpc replacements and so forth)

 

[1st Course]

From slides:

Computing and Gaming Hardware

• Whole division made $2.45B Revenue, $479M gross margin.
  
• Surface revenue $908M -> Xbox Revenue $1.5B.
  
• Xbox revenue up 54% yoy
  
• Surface gross margin was positive.
  
• "Xbox platform gross margin impacted by mix shift to next generation consoles"

*Surface and Xbox are in the same division

 

[CoG]

Shipped, Xbox family. No bueno.

 

[HighResTomato]

And that's relevant to your previous comment how?

Great contribution to the topic by the way.

You are the one comparing quarterly earnings to yearly ones.

 

[SgtCobra]

http://www.microsoft.com/investor/E...s/PressReleaseAndWebcast/FY15/Q1/default.aspx

revenue was $23.20 billion not profit

Thank you, that's a good amount of cash.

I really doubt media functionality (or any other OS update for that matter) is going to increase xbone sales.

I like how some people tend to think that, I'm pretty sure the majority of the consumers just want to play their games. But whatever floats their boat if they think an OS is going to be a sort of killer app or something like that.

 

[BeforeU]

It's good. 2.4M Shipped shows that the stuffed channels from the previous quarter cleared out and orders increased.

This.

Looks like a great numbers to me. Will be more in Q4.

 

[SmartWaffles]

Not PS4 good doesn't mean it's not good, 6m in less than a year with a disastrous launch is already a job well done. Also the hardware division's revenue is almost as big as the entire Sony corp lol.

 

[KOHIPEET]

I don't think this is bad for X1 at all, it's just not really good in the light of PS4's (current) succes.

Holidays will be interesting.

(/s Are there any heavy hitters releasing in november-december for either consoles?)

 

[Neuromancer]

keep holding onto that, it won't last that much longer

I have to enjoy it while I can. My poor WiiU. =(

 

[De_Legend]

Indeed. When the year is over it's going to be something like 18m PS4 vs 11.5m XB1. Amazing for PS4, and XB1 is behind and can't catch up, but it's not like PS2 vs XBOX some like to make out.

11.5m XB1 at the end of the year?

 

[Miles X]

360's 1st Q3 and 2nd Q3 were 1m and 1.8m respectively, the following holiday Q's were 4.4m and 4.3m.

That's the ballpark I had the holiday shipments at already, be surprised if it deviates outside of that range much. Puts end of year shipments at 11m - 12m, which tracks above X360 for same time period.

 

[vpance]

So Xbox One shipping in 1 quarter = PS4 sold to consumer in half a quarter. That about right?

 

[Stilton Disco]

Indeed. When the year is over it's going to be something like 18m PS4 vs 11.5m XB1. Amazing for PS4, and XB1 is behind and can't catch up, but it's not like PS2 vs XBOX some like to make out.



Entirely plausable XB1 > WiiU in shipments. (this is forward accounting for WiiU this Q, unless it surpassed everyones expectations!!)

11.5m shipped to 18m sold through maybe, but I'd be amazed given the XO's performance outside the US and UK if it hits 10m sold through. I'd put money on it being around 8-9m myself.

It'll definitely beat out the WiiU mind. There's just no righting that ship.

 

[Neuromancer]

[*]Xbox revenue up 54% yoy

Weren't last gen consoles basically flat-lining at this time last year?

 

[Shyakugaun]

Youch. Maybe it will just be Ninty and Sony by 2017...

You may think the Master Chief Avatar is providing camouflage, but it really makes you standout lol

 

[Chobel]

It will to non gamers...there is a market (albeit small) for those who want htpc replacements and so forth)

You're really overestimating that market, I say that market is so small I doubt it represents 1% of the whole market.

 

[KOHIPEET]

Indeed. When the year is over it's going to be something like 18m PS4 vs 11.5m XB1. Amazing for PS4, and XB1 is behind and can't catch up, but it's not like PS2 vs XBOX some like to make out.

Given what we know about current numbers I don't see that happening. I also think the Ps4 will stop around 16m.

Spoiler

Am I underestimating the holidays?

 

[theprodigy]

Not even sure it's true right now.

hmm.....
Wii U LTD (through June 30, 2014): 6.68m (0.51m for the quarter, ~370k in sales for US+Japan (however there's a possibility they might have been clearing excess holiday stock))
2014 Q2: ??? (~346k in US+Japan)

maybe lol

 

[Servbot24]

I don't think this is bad for X1 at all, it's just not really good in the light of PS4's (current) succes.

Holidays will be interesting.

(/s Are there any heavy hitters releasing in november-december for either consoles?)

Master Chief Collection, Sunset Overdrive, Little Big Planet 3. That's it for exclusives.

 

[Jaxx]

Shipped, Xbox family. No bueno.

You should send them an email requesting that they change how they've been doing things the past decade or so.

 

[Miles X]

11.5m shipped to 18m sold through maybe, but I'd be amazed given the XO's performance outside the US and UK if it hits 10m sold through. I'd put money on it being around 8-9m myself.

It'll definitely beat out the WiiU mind. There's just no righting that ship.

MS can't keep sending out more units than retailers are willing to take ...

8m sell through would put shipments at about 9.5m MAX, that means 2m~ shipped over the holiday season ....

Given what we know about current numbers I don't see that happening. I also think the Ps4 will stop around 16m.

Spoiler

Am I underestimating the holidays?

Again look at my other post, it's only 4m~ shipped for XB1 during holiday season. Entirely doable.

What are we thinking ps4 is at right now?

12m shipped? Maybe more? Then 6m+ shipped over the holiday. I still think 20m is reachable but many think that's too much.

 

[mcrommert]

Given what we know about current numbers I don't see that happening. I also think the Ps4 will stop around 16m.

Spoiler

Am I underestimating the holidays?

What are we thinking ps4 is at right now?

 

[Zones]

You are the one comparing quarterly earnings to yearly ones.

Oh alright, let's make the comparison more comparable: Sony's last quarter revenue was $23 billion.

Now what exactly is your point? Well of course outside of your intentional, but unnecessary mockery at Sony in which you failed simply because revenue has little to nothing to do with market cap.

 

[Ambition]

Anecdotaly, the word of mouth around the Xbox One is pretty good.

Speaking as a Senior in High School, it's the opposite for me.
Around here, people still think it can't play used games. topkek

 

[neogaffer1]

11.5m XB1 at the end of the year?

It's 7.4m right now if some of the calcualtions are correct. Another 4m for its first big holiday season isn't insane to expect. (Especially if B1G1 comes back like it's rumored to).

 

[KOHIPEET]

What are we thinking ps4 is at right now?

Ps4 reached 10m around August didn't it? So that would mean 8m in under 4 months.

Unilikely IMO.

Might be wrong about that August though.

 

[Xando]

What are we thinking ps4 is at right now?

Wouldn't wonder me if they are at ~ 12 million sold.
Fifa 15 and Destiny should have done a lot for them in their biggest market (Europe).

 

[BlackBuzzard]

What are we thinking ps4 is at right now?

11+ with the Destiny bump

 

[mcrommert]

MS can't keep sending out more units than retailers are willing to take ...

8m sell through would put shipments at about 9.5m MAX, that means 2m~ shipped over the holiday season ....



Again look at my other post, it's only 4m~ shipped for XB1 during holiday season. Entirely doable.



12m shipped? Maybe more? Then 6m+ shipped over the holiday. I still think 20m is reachable but many think that's too much.

Based off last year, as far as i remember ps4 numbers at holiday weren't far and away above xbox...so 5 mil on xbox and 6-7 on ps4...seems about right

 

[Raist]

Ps4 reached 10m around August didn't it? So that would mean 8m in under 4 months.

Unilikely IMO.

Might be wrong about that August though.

10M sold was announced on the 12th of August during Gamescom.

 

[Chobel]

What are we thinking ps4 is at right now?

GAF consensus says it's around 11.8 M sold through, so 12.5 M probably shipped, maybe more.

Spoiler

GAF consensus = SwiftDeath

 

[Ambition]

It's 7.4m right now if some of the calcualtions are correct.

That sounds a litte too high, no?

 

[le.phat]

Considering the global launch of X1, this seems really low

 

[mcrommert]

GAF consensus says it's around 11.8 M sold through, so 12.5 M probably shipped, maybe more.

Spoiler

GAF consensus = SwiftDeath

So comparing shipped numbers 5 mil difference

 

[Miles X]

That sounds a litte too high, no?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=135615124&postcount=77

 

[bombshell]

11+ with the Destiny bump

1M the last 2 months is low balling it. It's at 12+ sold.

 

[blakep267]

What are we thinking ps4 is at right now?

maybe 12.

I can't see the ps4 selling 7-8 million consoles between October and December. I'll say 4-5 more