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Microsoft's rush to next-gen could see the Xbox take a tumble

BeOnEdge

Banned
SolidSnakex said:
While that's true, Nintendo has also built up a 3rd party backing that they haven't really had since the SNES era.

ur kidding right? i'd almost say the GC has worse 3rd party support than N64. N64 has tons of 3rd party exclusives while now adays they seem to just skip the GC entirely. SONY has the amount of support nintendo had back then. Nintendo is a notch below where the genesis was those days today.
 
Not when alot of the N64's big 3rd party support came from Acclaim. :p This gen Nintendo's got alot of 3rd party support from Capcom including Resident Evil. They've got Square-Enix developing for them again including a FF. And they've got a MGS, and while not developed by Konami it still couldn't have been done without them. So i'd say the 3rd party support is easily better when you consider the companies they've got now compared to then.
 

AniHawk

Member
BeOnEdge said:
ur kidding right? i'd almost say the GC has worse 3rd party support than N64. N64 has tons of 3rd party exclusives while now adays they seem to just skip the GC entirely. SONY has the amount of support nintendo had back then. Nintendo is a notch below where the genesis was those days today.

Worse than N64?

Are you the creator of "Hi and Lois?" Because you are making me laugh.
 

BeOnEdge

Banned
nintendo and its 1st/2nd party developers(or whatever you call them)had more games. DK, banjo, goldeneye, killer instinct, ridge racer, things just seemed more plentiful.
 
Yah I definetly agree that Nintendo's 1st/2nd party work last gen was better than this gen. Although they've picked up quite a bit. There's still nothing really up to the level of Mario 64, MM or GE imo.
 

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
BeOnEdge said:
ur kidding right? i'd almost say the GC has worse 3rd party support than N64. N64 has tons of 3rd party exclusives while now adays they seem to just skip the GC entirely. SONY has the amount of support nintendo had back then. Nintendo is a notch below where the genesis was those days today.
????????
?????
???????

Not only does the Gamecube have more titles, already, than the N64 ever had, but Nintendo has released fewer of them. Gahiggidy has the lists (whatever happened to him?).

The biggest difference between the Gamecube and the N64 is that the GCN is getting a lot of mutliplatform support, while the N64 could only count on that type of support from Acclaim and Midway, with Activision releasing their N64 version eventually.
 

GDGF

Soothsayer
Rumors are it was moved to the Revolution, but no one knows for sure (and if they do, they aren't talking)
 

BioFan

Member
SolidSnakex said:
While still the Xbox's Japanese support is about as bad as you can get. That really doesn't show any signs of changing anytime soon, if anything it seems to be getting worse with the TFLO cancellation.
I have a feeling that TFLO might be one of the big Japanese launch title for XBOX2. The game was suppose to be ready by early 2005 + an extra time porting it over to the xbox2, it should be ready for xbox 2 launch in Japan, which I believe is first quarter 2006. Unless MS is the dumbest developer in the world, then they really cancel it, which might also be true.
 

deadhorse32

Bad Art ™
Lost Weekend said:
Rumors are it was moved to the Revolution, but no one knows for sure (and if they do, they aren't talking)

The game has always been rumored to be a Revolution launch game but with the recent F5/Nintendo relation probs, we don't know if the game is still in dev.

And Xbox = N64-II
 
Low support from Japanese companies is in some ways a REASON why Xbox failed in Japan but it is primarily a SYMPTOM of its failure.

MS' failure there started right when they decided to release the Xbox in Japan - they were basically guaranteed to fail unless they jumped some giant hurdles, most of which they ended up running smack into at full blast.

They've clearly learned things, but there is a legitimate question now as to whether it is even in the realm of possibility that the Xbox 2 succeeds in Japan. I've spoken to many Japanese who say that it's simply not going to happen no matter what they try.
 

xsarien

daedsiluap
BioFan said:
I have a feeling that TFLO might be one of the big Japanese launch title for XBOX2. The game was suppose to be ready by early 2005 + an extra time porting it over to the xbox2, it should be ready for xbox 2 launch in Japan, which I believe is first quarter 2006. Unless MS is the dumbest developer in the world, then they really cancel it, which might also be true.

Get over it, TFLO is gone. Dead, history. It is pining for the fjords; ceased to be; left this mortal coil. IT IS AN EX-GAME. (To put it in the slightly paraphrased words of Monty Python.)

Also, just to pile onto the argument:
From a pure statistical standpoint, the Gamecube has more 3rd party support than the N64.
 

TekunoRobby

Tag of Excellence
I probably speak for a majority of the hardcore tech geek but I'll gladly buy the Xbox2 if it has atleast one game that's considered "amazing" and it's priced reasonably (nothing above $300).
 
Kobun Heat said:
They've clearly learned things, but there is a legitimate question now as to whether it is even in the realm of possibility that the Xbox 2 succeeds in Japan. I've spoken to many Japanese who say that it's simply not going to happen no matter what they try.

Nintendo still stuck at number two world wide huh? Damn Nintendo and their non-competative ways.
 

AniHawk

Member
Duckhuntdog said:
Nintendo still stuck at number two world wide huh? Damn Nintendo and their non-competative ways.

Actually, from the latest numbers, I think the Xbox is #2. Although, the latest numbers we got were obviously shipped for both, and it was from a news report, the Xbox was at 15.4 million as of May, and the GC was officially at 14.48 million (or was it .58?) as of March.
 
AniHawk said:
Actually, from the latest numbers, I think the Xbox is #2. Although, the latest numbers we got were obviously shipped for both, and it was from a news report, the Xbox was at 15.4 million as of May, and the GC was officially at 14.48 million (or was it .58?) as of March.

I have to say that it's great that the XBOX leads the Gamecube but you really have to take a step back from the stats and see that

1) The xbox is making a greater loss than cube. Their lead comes at a really big price to MS.
2) The xbox is chippable and that fact means piracy is a big factor that contributes to its sale

As it stands... numbers aside, I'd say that Nintendo IS winning. But they are BOTH losers to the mighty PS2.
 

AniHawk

Member
TheGreenGiant said:
I have to say that it's great that the XBOX leads the Gamecube but you really have to take a step back from the stats and see that

1) The xbox is making a greater loss than cube. Their lead comes at a really big price to MS.
2) The xbox is chippable and that fact means piracy is a big factor that contributes to its sale

As it stands... numbers aside, I'd say that Nintendo IS winning. But they are BOTH losers to the mighty PS2.

1. Yeah, but the more userbase, the better. They want that fanbase for when Xenon comes out. They'll surely get it.
2. I don't think it's a huge factor. There are tons of people on GAF who have chipped their Xboxes, but probably less than 1% of the total userbase has done so.

Numbers aside, I'd say Nintendo has lost, but they're doing a lot to turn around. Listening to gamers, developers. Trying to innovate without forcing peripherals and huge extra costs on people. They're going to have to do a hell of a lot to seriously compete next gen though. The bad taste in people's mouth will be worse next gen than it was this one, in my opinion (though the GC probably will end up not too far behind the N64 overall in sales).
 

Ashitaka

Member
AniHawk said:
2. I don't think it's a huge factor. There are tons of people on GAF who have chipped their Xboxes, but probably less than 1% of the total userbase has done so.

Additionally, even if there is a ton of piracy on the Xbox, it's got a better tie ratio in the US than the GC.
 

Che

Banned
AniHawk said:
2. I don't think it's a huge factor. There are tons of people on GAF who have chipped their Xboxes, but probably less than 1% of the total userbase has done so.

1%???? Do you know what's happening in Europe? You obviously don't.

Also can someone confirm AniHawk's numbers?
 
The second/third place 'war' really doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot to me, and it shouldn't to any of you either. First, both are so far behind Sony it's tough to see why it matters; second, it's a dead heat for second and third right now; third, while it is not an ideal place for either company it is only a profitable one for Nintendo; fourth, Nintendo has a whole other game console you might have heard of.

I've always said that Nintendo, in the end, will sell more Gamecubes than MS will sell Xboxen. And if the current thinking about MS' and Nintendo's tail-end plans for their systems turn out to be true, there's no way this can't happen.
 

AniHawk

Member
Che said:
1%???? Do you know what's happening in Europe? You obviously don't.

Also can someone confirm AniHawk's numbers?

1% of 15.4 million is 154,000 people. I think that's somewhat reasonable. Could be more, but probably not more than 5%
 
AniHawk said:
1. Yeah, but the more userbase, the better. They want that fanbase for when Xenon comes out. They'll surely get it.
2. I don't think it's a huge factor. There are tons of people on GAF who have chipped their Xboxes, but probably less than 1% of the total userbase has done so.
QUOTE]

I question your 1% ratio. Its way more. Pretty much most people I know that has a box has a chip and guess what. For all their love of XBox games.. they don't buy them in stores. :| There is no doubt that the roaring xbox consoles sales is because of the piracy. It didn't really take off til MS dropped price and the mod chip got released

I predict Xenon having moderate sales til a chip gets released.
 

cvxfreak

Member
BeOnEdge said:
xbox had NOTHING for japan at launch and to this day have NOTHING for japanese gamers. MS wont make the same mistake for X2 and if they do, theres always EU and USA. look at the worldwide numbers for GC and XB? close eh? even though xbox sells 3 units a week in japan.

Dead or Alive 3
 

Che

Banned
TheGreenGiant said:
I question your 1% ratio. Its way more. Pretty much most people I know that has a box has a chip and guess what. For all their love of XBox games.. they don't buy them in stores. :| There is no doubt that the roaring xbox consoles sales is because of the piracy. It didn't really take off til MS dropped price and the mod chip got released

I predict Xenon having moderate sales til a chip gets released.

I agree. I don't know someone who has an xbox and doesn't have a chip in it. The damn thing is too easy to be inserted on the xbox. A friend of mine did it all by himself.
 

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
TheGreenGiant said:
AniHawk said:
1. Yeah, but the more userbase, the better. They want that fanbase for when Xenon comes out. They'll surely get it.
2. I don't think it's a huge factor. There are tons of people on GAF who have chipped their Xboxes, but probably less than 1% of the total userbase has done so.
QUOTE]

I question your 1% ratio. Its way more. Pretty much most people I know that has a box has a chip and guess what. For all their love of XBox games.. they don't buy them in stores. :| There is no doubt that the roaring xbox consoles sales is because of the piracy. It didn't really take off til MS dropped price and the mod chip got released

I predict Xenon having moderate sales til a chip gets released.

Neg. roaring Xbox sales aren't from piracy, it's from great software. Xbox was modded and had all little neat stuff a looooooooong time ago. and as for "way more" It's probably around the 1%-2% mark.
 

xsarien

daedsiluap
DopeyFish said:
Neg. roaring Xbox sales aren't from piracy, it's from great software. Xbox was modded and had all little neat stuff a looooooooong time ago. and as for "way more" It's probably around the 1%-2% mark.

Given how many PS2s and XBoxes have been sold worldwide, I congratulate you on stretching the definition of "roaring" to such a level. ;)
 

DrGAKMAN

Banned
Maybe I was very anti-Microsoft in my rant from before, but it doesn't mean that I'm completly off-base. I think ALOT of X-BOX fans & potential fans are going to be turned off by Microsoft cutting the current X-BOX short, having no BC and it being the least powerful (totally losing thier power "edge" they had garnering support this generation) of the three next-generation systems.

However, I re-thought some stuff. Nintendo has sort of "cut short" their portable line many times, and each time, with each iteration the popularity grows for some reason. The system being seen as a secondary form of gaming, it being cheaper and each one having BC helped that flow...But do you think that cutting short the current X-BOX could have any form of similar "new" effect? "Ohhh, the new X-BOX, let's buy one!" That plus the whole headstart advantage that Microsoft, gamers & developers *could* be seeing might all be possitives.

Being more realistic and looking at the negatives AND the possitives I still think the negatives still outway the possitives.

Plus the "possitives" of having that "new hardware feel" (Nintendo DS & PSP could possibly also hender Microsoft's plans in this) and the "headstart advantage" being seen as a DreamCast-like risk in the eyes of the market waiting for the next Playstation don't really make them possitives do they?
 

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
most people won't even realise it's coming out a year early (heck! i honestly thought N64 came late when I was younger). Backwards compatibility won't even effect that many people.
 

Kiriku

SWEDISH PERFECTION
BeOnEdge said:
xbox had NOTHING for japan at launch and to this day have NOTHING for japanese gamers. MS wont make the same mistake for X2 and if they do, theres always EU and USA. look at the worldwide numbers for GC and XB? close eh? even though xbox sells 3 units a week in japan.

I don't see what kind of "mistake" they made though. To me it seems like they've actually been trying really hard to establish good contacts with third-parties in Japan, but with little success. Or am I wrong? Of course, it's easy to say "they didn't try hard enough", but I don't think they'll be that much more successful with X2.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I got asked by a customer today what system to get
I give my standard "What games do you like"?

He said platformers and FPSs. I was like crap, ps2 = platformers, xbox = shooters
I told him the xbox has a better selection of FPS titles and the PS2 a better selection of platformers. Take a look at each systems games and choose based on that. He then asked what console would last the longest, I said that sony had no plans to launch until 2006 at the earliest, while industry speculators are guessing that the xbox 2 will launch fall of 2005.

He without questioning it, bought a ps2.

Some people here underestimate how much launching early could effect things, ESPECIALLY if nintendo waits.
 
BeOnEdge said:
looking at GCs 3rd party sales numbers compared to XBOX you'd think there was piracy on the gamecube.

Purhlease. There is a reason for this.

a) gamecube 3rd party titles are mostly rubbish
b) gamecube 3rd party titles are the weakest of the ports
c) a) gamecube 3rd party titles if they're not exclusive comes out last

* see how GODDAMN sold really well on the cube but not on the PS2. Exclusivity for the cube helps. Early launch helps. Back on topic

d) why would people buy cube games when they can pirate the multiconsole 3rd party titles or get it on the xbox/ps2 better/first.
 

pilonv1

Member
TheGreenGiant said:
* see how GODDAMN sold really well on the cube but not on the PS2. Exclusivity for the cube helps. Early launch helps. Back on topic

Accuracy helps. Wasn't released on PS2, so of course it sold better.

And I'm glad we have the required "useless single retail story to back up my stupid theory" post to make this thread complete.
 

DrGAKMAN

Banned
pilonv1 said:
Accuracy helps. Wasn't released on PS2, so of course it sold better.

And I'm glad we have the required "useless single retail story to back up my stupid theory" post to make this thread complete.

Yeah, that wasn't correct, but the POINT still stands! Unless of course you're trying to spin points around to make your own points valid when NONE of us REALLY know how this is gonna turn out for Microsoft. In SOME people's cases they're gonna love having an early next generation system, but I would bet that in MORE people's cases they'd rather have their existing (or potential) investments last longer!

A question to Suikoguy: What did you mean by this?:

"Some people here underestimate how much launching early could effect things, ESPECIALLY if nintendo waits."
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Let me explain a little further.

If nintendo waits and launches near or around sony, what I think will happen is consumers will see it as the "real" next generation. The dates of the PS3 and Revolution will likely be finalized or close to before the Xbox Next launch.

If nintendo tries to go early too, then sony might been seen as a late starter.

And I'm glad we have the required "useless single retail story to back up my stupid theory" post to make this thread complete.

Glad to be of service :)
Real story though
 

DrGAKMAN

Banned
Yeah that's what I thought you meant. I think the market saw it (will see it) like this:

-Saturn & Playstation (3RD Generation)
-N64 (late)
-DreamCast (early/premature/stop-gap)
-PS2 (4TH Generation)
-GAMECUBE & X-BOX (late)
-X-BOX Next (early/premature/stop-gap)
-PS3 & Revolution (5TH Generation)

When 2 heavy hitters launch together then it can't be seen as really bad, but when a company (who isn't the current market leader) launches early it's seen as premature and ultimatly a stop-gap. In NO way am I saying this is a prediction of the next X-BOX's failure (as they have more money/power/influence than Sega did with DC), but that doesn't stop the market from ~seeing~ it as a premature move. And image influences things alot (see: Nintendo).
 

AniHawk

Member
Suikoguy said:
Let me explain a little further.

If nintendo waits and launches near or around sony, what I think will happen is consumers will see it as the "real" next generation. The dates of the PS3 and Revolution will likely be finalized or close to before the Xbox Next launch.

If nintendo tries to go early too, then sony might been seen as a late starter.

I agree.

If Sony & Nintendo go at first, then we might see the DC effect. If MS & Nintendo go at once, then whoever has the momentum going up against Sony will probably battle them (similar to Saturn vs. PSX). If MS, Nintendo, and Sony release their systems 6 months after one another, then Nintendo would probably be screwed for missing the holiday season.
 

Alcibiades

Member
DopeyFish said:
ok it didn't sell over gamecube but it was still 10,000 units in 1 week. this is Enterbrain data for march 8-14.

http://game-science.com/news/000475.html

BTW, that data is wrong, I think XBox sold like 1000 that week in official numbers...

edit:

http://game-science.com/news/000481.html

Media Create Hardware Sales 8 - 14 Mar
11:03
platform this week last week 2004 total
1 Gameboy Advance SP 43,800 48,900 839,400
2 PlayStation 2 42,400 43,200 784,300
3 Gamecube 13,100 8,300 298,800
4 Gameboy Advance 3,900 4,200 102,600
5 Xbox 1,100 830 14,600
6 PSone 370 440 3,800
7 Swan Crystal 350 360 7,100
Source: Media Create
 
pilonv1 said:
Accuracy helps. Wasn't released on PS2, so of course it sold better.

And I'm glad we have the required "useless single retail story to back up my stupid theory" post to make this thread complete.

On the xbox then. I didn't buy the game or follow it. But I know about its re-release on a different console and its weaksauce sale. You can apply this theory to any of the xbox early release and their consecutive sales on the other consoles... and the numbers don't lie. If you have even a time release on any console first; it will naturally do better. Its a bit surprising they're not releasing GODDAMN 2 for the cube but the xbox considering the numbers too.
 
I believe that the developers of Godzilla: DAM & the new one, Save the Earth, already said in an interview that their focus was online play...something GC has had problems with.
 
MightyHedgehog said:
I believe that the developers of Godzilla: DAM & the new one, Save the Earth, already said in an interview that their focus was online play...something GC has had problems with.

that's just an excuse isn't it? Its not like they can't make it and make it LAN or Online compatible. GODDAMN won't be anymore fun online.. its like SMBB, half the fun is rubbing your friends face in the dirt.
 
TheGreenGiant said:
that's just an excuse isn't it? Its not like they can't make it and make it LAN or Online compatible. GODDAMN won't be anymore fun online.. its like SMBB, half the fun is rubbing your friends face in the dirt.

Well, there's always the choice of starting a petition...
 
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