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Mini Mafia I |OT| Why is it so small?

batsnacks

Member
All of the televisions turned on at once. The disembodied voice of Timeaisis came over the TVs. “60 seconds remain before all of you fall asleep for some reason!”, it said, as the group continued arguing over who among them was scum.

Hyperactivity and Terrabyte20xx began backing away from the group suspiciously.

“IT’S THEM! GET THEM!”, everyone shouted, and began running towards the two, creating quite a confusing brouhaha.

“WAIT!? Who are we attacking!?” yelled Sophia. “BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD!”, replied cabot, as he began swinging violently.

Hyperactivity entered the fetal position and began clinging to the first object in reach, batsnacks’ lifeless corpse. This was seen as even more suspicious by the GAFia horde. He was surrounded and was dragged to the back of the train car clinging to batsnack’s now-defiled remains, kicking and screaming.

“WAIT STOP IT’S NOT ME”, Hyperactivity protested futilely.

Hyperactivity was picked up and thrown from the back of the caboose, still holding onto batsnacks, into the icy ravine below. Their two bodies tumbled across the snowy wasteland. And they lived happily ever after.


Hyperactivity, the Mafia Goon has died.

PLAYERS:
1. Kawl_USC [m]
2. cabot [m]
3. Hyperactivity [m] - Mafia Goon lynched D1
4. Kristoffer [m] replaced by Sophia [f]
5. Lone_Prodigy [m]
6. Terrabyte20xx [m]
7. Ty4on [m]
8. melonrabbit [f]
9. Catvoca [m] replaced by Fireblend [m]
10. SkyOdin [m]
11. *Splinter [m]
12. YesNOnoNOYes [f]
13. StanleyPalmtree [m]

NIGHT 1 ENDS

red_1469653200.png


IMPORTANT POSTS:
OP
D1 Start
D1 Final Vote Count / Flip

Please PM your night actions at least an hour in advance!
 

cabot

Member
(( We've already got Karkadorian math, is it time for batsnacksian countdowns? ))


(( See what I did here, yeeny. You're welcome ))
 

Timeaisis

Member
It was now Christmas Eve and all through the Trans-Siberian Beach House Cruise Train I, no one was stirring, not even a mouse.

The TVs rattled to life. A Christmas Carol began playing at full volume, awakening all the guests. Bleary-eyed, they walked towards the main television in the lounge train car. The television hummed.

“Oh, hello there.” Nin1000 said from inside the television, looking up from an old book as he addressed the viewers. He was wearing a long robe, smoking a pipe, and sitting on an antique chair near a wood-burning fireplace. “Today, we shall enjoy this classic tale, one of love, loss, and Christmas. Our story opens with old Ebenezer trying to grasp the true meaning of the holiday. Join me please as we watch this Dickens classic.”

Snow fell on the streets of Victorian England. Timeaisis, as Ebenezer Scrooge McDuck, was beginning his quest to learn the true meaning of Christmas. He somehow looked even more grumpy than usual.

Suddenly, a ghost appeared on screen, bearing an uncanny resemblance to the now deceased batsnacks! Only now, with a cybernetic eye where Timeaisis had shot him earlier. His clothes were rugged, with shackles and padlocks around his arms, and an automatic can opener in lieu of his right hand, just in case.

“I AM THE CYBERNETIC GHOST OF CHRISTMAS PAST! I come from the future. Listen to me if you want to live!”, he said, directly addressing the audience.

“There are those among you who would seek to destroy the true meaning of Christmas. Don’t believe their lies! Seek them out and destroy them!” His cybernetic eye twitched rapidly.

The Gafia group exchanged concerned glances and noticed that one in their group was now missing! At that moment, Lone_Prodigy’s lifeless body fell from a nearby overhead compartment, along with some of cabot’s luggage, which happened to contain an inordinate amount of gin.

"GoOoooOooOooOoooooOod Luuuuuuuuuuck!!", The Cybernetic Ghost of Christmas Past bellowed, as the televisions flickered off.


Lone_Prodigy, the Town Cop, has died.

PLAYERS:
1. Kawl_USC [m]
2. cabot [m]
3. Hyperactivity [m] Mafia Goon lynched D1
4. Kristoffer [m] replaced by Sophia [f]
5. Lone_Prodigy [m] Town Cop NKed D1
6. Terrabyte20xx [m]
7. Ty4on [m]
8. melonrabbit [f]
9. Catvoca [m] replaced by Fireblend [m]
10. SkyOdin [m]
11. *Splinter [m]
12. YesNOnoNOYes [f]
13. StanleyPalmtree [m]

Day 2 begins

DAY 2 WILL END:
red_1469739600.png


IMPORTANT POSTS:
OP
D1 Start
D1 Final Vote Count / Flip
D2 Start
 

SkyOdin

Member
Well, that's not good.

I peeked cabot during the night phase.

Unfortunately, I need to run out the door right now, so I won't be around for a few more hours.
 

cabot

Member
Well that was a good night kill choice.



Right, SkyOdin.

VOTE: SkyOdin

How strong did you town read Hyper before day end?


Also, regarding melon:

Since it is between Hyper and Terra. Going with my gut feeling.

VOTE: Hyperactivity

This was done when it was 7-3 Hyper, when it didn't bloody matter where she voted. Not particularly townie, but on its own not really scummy either. Except when you pair it with this post:

Hyper does seem to focus on the numbers and game stats side of things and honestly that all is a bit over my head (like how the game is generated and %s) I don't think that it is necessary a tell in of itself but it does stand out and someone I want to continue to watch. Gut feeling is leaning scum but I really need to hear from him more.

This reads to me as scum setting up for a longer term bus, coupled with the last minute irrelevant vote, a scum would do this to cover their voting tracks when the scum was absolutely dead.


These are my two suspects for day start.
 

Ty4on

Member
Anyhow, peeked Terra. He is town.

Why on earth pick LP?
Safe, low info pick I guess. They might have known we had some PRs and were scared of a doctor.

I want to look back though knowing that scum seemingly didn't think L_P was a likely lynch target.
 

cabot

Member
I initially read melon as a PR rather than scum, which is why I posted saying I'd rather give her a day, hoping for a result.


Looking back at her posts, I'm leaning more scum than PR.
 

*Splinter

Member
Reading through the past hour of yesterday, I think Kawl is obviously town, ynnny is also a pretty strong town read. I also think Ty4on is town.

If there's scum on Hyper I think it's melon, Sophia, or Cabot, in that order.

My top suspects are melon and SkyOdin. Also LP but I guess I'm wrong about that one...
 

cabot

Member
L_P could have been the 'choose a kill with no real motive behind it to throw off speculation' option, because I saw nothing out of the ordinary in his play yesterday.

He had some heat, but was never in lynch contention.


Other thought: maybe to put heat on melon? She was going at L_P for a while on D1.
 

Fireblend

Banned
knowing that scum seemingly didn't think L_P was a likely lynch target.

Why assume this? He didn't place a vote yesterday, and I intended to continue looking into him since that's where my vote ended yesterday. It does strike me as odd that they'd think that.
 

Ty4on

Member
Requires 3 c's out of 7. 3 is pretty unlikely and at that point our second cop is only a one shot.

I misremembered the odds. Thought it was more, but it was just 7%.

Anyhow, here are the odds for Cs:
Cop-number probability:

0 – 32%
1 – 40%
2 – 21%
3 – 6%
4 – 1%
5 – 0.1%
1C is one shot cop
2C is normal cop
3C is normal cop + one shot cop
4C is 2 normal cops
etc...

6 and 7C percentages were so low I didn't bother writing them.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
If we choose to toss aside Occam's razor, seeing as this is gafia after all, we could have a doctor and a SK, or less likely, a doctor and a vig.
 

*Splinter

Member
Who did you feel were more likely targets since lp comes as a surprise?
You were the obvious choice. The only reason not to kill you is fear of a doctor. Ty4on would have be my next pick. After that I'm not sure but LP would be way down the list. Looking at the final vote count it seems he didn't even have a vote down? And multiple people already voiced suspicions of him.
 

Kawl_USC

Member
I misremembered the odds. Thought it was more, but it was just 7%.

Anyhow, here are the odds for Cs:

1C is one shot cop
2C is normal cop
3C is normal cop + one shot cop
4C is 2 normal cops
etc...

6 and 7C percentages were so low I didn't bother writing them.

You could argue the odds become higher than 7 percent given that we only look at set ups that at least have a normal cop, but I still think it's unlikely. And like I said if there is another it's almost assuredly a one shot.
 

cabot

Member
L_P could be a vigi, considering the no vote and heat but no traction.


You'd think a vigi would kill the other person in a tight lynch result though.
 

*Splinter

Member
If we choose to toss aside Occam's razor, seeing as this is gafia after all, we could have a doctor and a SK, or less likely, a doctor and a vig.
Hmm, with the kill choice I was assuming doctor/vig, but I hadn't considered the probability of a doctor/cop/vig combo
 

Ty4on

Member
Why assume this? He didn't place a vote yesterday, and I intended to continue looking into him since that's where my vote ended yesterday. It does strike me as odd that they'd think that.

If say two scum and two townies were suspicious of him. For scum that doesn't look like a lot of pressure.

Doesn't mean I believe that is what happened (sometimes scum just makes random NKs), but I noticed you got a different perspective as scum when a lot of scum mates were onto someone versus someone mainly attacked by town.
 

*Splinter

Member
L_P could be a vigi, considering the no vote and heat but no traction.


You'd think a vigi would kill the other person in a tight lynch result though.
Even when the lynched person was scum?

I mean there wasn't really anything connecting Terra/Hyper, but your comment still makes way more sense if we lynched town
 

Sophia

Member
L_P could have been the 'choose a kill with no real motive behind it to throw off speculation' option, because I saw nothing out of the ordinary in his play yesterday.

He had some heat, but was never in lynch contention.


Other thought: maybe to put heat on melon? She was going at L_P for a while on D1.

The only thing that really stands out about LP (as I noted last day phase a few times) is that he had very little to say about anything except the peeking discussion. Beyond that, I can't see anything that really stands out as to why he'd be a target. So your logic is probably right.

Reading through the past hour of yesterday, I think Kawl is obviously town, ynnny is also a pretty strong town read. I also think Ty4on is town.

If there's scum on Hyper I think it's melon, Sophia, or Cabot, in that order.

My top suspects are melon and SkyOdin. Also LP but I guess I'm wrong about that one...

May I hear why you think I might be scum? Because you're implying that I drew attention to my teammate from the word go and spent a significant chunk of time arguing with him. : \
 

Kawl_USC

Member
Even when the lynched person was scum?

I mean there wasn't really anything connecting Terra/Hyper, but your comment still makes way more sense if we lynched town

Eh I think a Terra kill is the clearest overture that a vig is in play. "Some people found him suspicious enough to vote him, I'll be pro town by also flipping him so we get additional info on those people"
 

Ty4on

Member
You could argue the odds become higher than 7 percent given that we only look at set ups that at least have a normal cop, but I still think it's unlikely. And like I said if there is another it's almost assuredly a one shot.

Hmm, didn't think of that. Normalizing setups with a normal cop I get 25% that he wasn't the only cop.
 

cabot

Member
Sure, but I mean it wasnt like Terra was super clearly town either.

I only softened on him because

1) He didn't make any sort of attempt to stay alive
2) Hyper was becoming increasingly scummy ever since his defense post
3) I thought SkyOdin coming in to break the tie at 3-3 in Hyper's favour was bad.
 

*Splinter

Member
If say two scum and two townies were suspicious of him. For scum that doesn't look like a lot of pressure.

Doesn't mean I believe that is what happened (sometimes scum just makes random NKs), but I noticed you got a different perspective as scum when a lot of scum mates were onto someone versus someone mainly attacked by town.

Eh I think a Terra kill is the clearest overture that a vig is in play. "Some people found him suspicious enough to vote him, I'll be pro town by also flipping him so we get additional info on those people"
Hmm, fair points
 

Ty4on

Member
Eh I think a Terra kill is the clearest overture that a vig is in play. "Some people found him suspicious enough to vote him, I'll be pro town by also flipping him so we get additional info on those people"

I completely missed the vig discussion. I can see that happening with Kawl being the obvious target for a doctor and the highest priority for scum to kill. If so, a little weird scum didn't consider a doctor though with 4T or less if that's the case.
 

Ty4on

Member
Blah, didn't read the post though before quoting.

I guess killing Terra makes sense for a vig, but I wasn't scum reading him that much.
 

Fireblend

Banned
I'm gonna choose to believe L_P was killed because he didn't have a vote on anyone, thus NK'ing him minimized the amount of info for town. I see the vig discussion but don't have much to contribute.
 

cabot

Member
I'm gonna choose to believe L_P was killed because he didn't have a vote on anyone, thus NK'ing him minimized the amount of info for town. I see the vig discussion but don't have much to contribute.

What was the deal with your vote Fire? You were on the tiebreak then you just leaped onto L_P before day end?
 

Kawl_USC

Member
I completely missed the vig discussion. I can see that happening with Kawl being the obvious target for a doctor and the highest priority for scum to kill. If so, a little weird scum didn't consider a doctor though with 4T or less if that's the case.

1 shot vig, 1 normal doc, 1 normal cop would be a 3 T or less set up. However 3 T would give a serial killer as well. So I don't think we are dealing with that.
2 T means we have another pr afoot, and scum have both a god father and a role blocker with no SK.
Can consider more options when I'm not on mobile
 

Kawl_USC

Member
What was the deal with your vote Fire? You were on the tiebreak then you just leaped onto L_P before day end?
Was it LP that jumped down fires vote on the tie as being reckless due to his being a replacement? I remember thinking fires vote was one of vindictiveness.
 

Ty4on

Member
1 shot vig, 1 normal doc, 1 normal cop would be a 3 T or less set up. However 3 T would give a serial killer as well. So I don't think we are dealing with that.
2 T means we have another pr afoot, and scum have both a god father and a role blocker with no SK.
Can consider more options when I'm not on mobile

Scum wouldn't know anything of 4T or 3T, but if it's 2T then targeting Kawl makes even less sense unless the doctor got lucky.
Hmm, fair points
You didn't seem very suspicious of Hyper and null read him so why did you vote for him in the end?
 

Fireblend

Banned
What was the deal with your vote Fire? You were on the tiebreak then you just leaped onto L_P before day end?

I only moved from L_P to break the tie. When I switched back it was clear Hyper was going to be lynched without my help so I went back to where my gut feeling was. I was obviously wrong, but I generally think having all players on a single player at day end is less useful than having the votes be a bit more scattered.
 

cabot

Member
I only moved from L_P to break the tie. When I switched back it was clear Hyper was going to be lynched without my help so I went back to where my gut feeling was. I was obviously wrong, but I generally think having all players on a single player at day end is less useful than having the votes be a bit more scattered.

Yeah, this makes sense.
 

Fireblend

Banned
Was it LP that jumped down fires vote on the tie as being reckless due to his being a replacement? I remember thinking fires vote was one of vindictiveness.

I think he was referring to my vote for him, not the tiebreaker vote. Which I don't think was a tie breaker vote anyway; several people voted to break the tie at the same time iirc.
 
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