Hyperactivity
Banned
Oof, can't even do that as a joke
Dead thread please
Dead thread please
Please PM your night actions at least an hour in advance!
59 minutes in advance, got it.
Wouldn't it be 61 minutes?
Since it is between Hyper and Terra. Going with my gut feeling.
VOTE: Hyperactivity
Hyper does seem to focus on the numbers and game stats side of things and honestly that all is a bit over my head (like how the game is generated and %s) I don't think that it is necessary a tell in of itself but it does stand out and someone I want to continue to watch. Gut feeling is leaning scum but I really need to hear from him more.
Requires 3 c's out of 7. 3 is pretty unlikely and at that point our second cop is only a one shot.Setups with more than one cop aren't that unlikely folks.
Safe, low info pick I guess. They might have known we had some PRs and were scared of a doctor.Anyhow, peeked Terra. He is town.
Why on earth pick LP?
Anyhow, peeked Terra. He is town.
Why on earth pick LP?
knowing that scum seemingly didn't think L_P was a likely lynch target.
Requires 3 c's out of 7. 3 is pretty unlikely and at that point our second cop is only a one shot.
1C is one shot copCop-number probability:
0 32%
1 40%
2 21%
3 6%
4 1%
5 0.1%
You were the obvious choice. The only reason not to kill you is fear of a doctor. Ty4on would have be my next pick. After that I'm not sure but LP would be way down the list. Looking at the final vote count it seems he didn't even have a vote down? And multiple people already voiced suspicions of him.Who did you feel were more likely targets since lp comes as a surprise?
I misremembered the odds. Thought it was more, but it was just 7%.
Anyhow, here are the odds for Cs:
1C is one shot cop
2C is normal cop
3C is normal cop + one shot cop
4C is 2 normal cops
etc...
6 and 7C percentages were so low I didn't bother writing them.
Hmm, with the kill choice I was assuming doctor/vig, but I hadn't considered the probability of a doctor/cop/vig comboIf we choose to toss aside Occam's razor, seeing as this is gafia after all, we could have a doctor and a SK, or less likely, a doctor and a vig.
Why assume this? He didn't place a vote yesterday, and I intended to continue looking into him since that's where my vote ended yesterday. It does strike me as odd that they'd think that.
Even when the lynched person was scum?L_P could be a vigi, considering the no vote and heat but no traction.
You'd think a vigi would kill the other person in a tight lynch result though.
L_P could have been the 'choose a kill with no real motive behind it to throw off speculation' option, because I saw nothing out of the ordinary in his play yesterday.
He had some heat, but was never in lynch contention.
Other thought: maybe to put heat on melon? She was going at L_P for a while on D1.
Reading through the past hour of yesterday, I think Kawl is obviously town, ynnny is also a pretty strong town read. I also think Ty4on is town.
If there's scum on Hyper I think it's melon, Sophia, or Cabot, in that order.
My top suspects are melon and SkyOdin. Also LP but I guess I'm wrong about that one...
Even when the lynched person was scum?
I mean there wasn't really anything connecting Terra/Hyper, but your comment still makes way more sense if we lynched town
You could argue the odds become higher than 7 percent given that we only look at set ups that at least have a normal cop, but I still think it's unlikely. And like I said if there is another it's almost assuredly a one shot.
If say two scum and two townies were suspicious of him. For scum that doesn't look like a lot of pressure.
Doesn't mean I believe that is what happened (sometimes scum just makes random NKs), but I noticed you got a different perspective as scum when a lot of scum mates were onto someone versus someone mainly attacked by town.
Hmm, fair pointsEh I think a Terra kill is the clearest overture that a vig is in play. "Some people found him suspicious enough to vote him, I'll be pro town by also flipping him so we get additional info on those people"
Eh I think a Terra kill is the clearest overture that a vig is in play. "Some people found him suspicious enough to vote him, I'll be pro town by also flipping him so we get additional info on those people"
I'm gonna choose to believe L_P was killed because he didn't have a vote on anyone, thus NK'ing him minimized the amount of info for town. I see the vig discussion but don't have much to contribute.
I completely missed the vig discussion. I can see that happening with Kawl being the obvious target for a doctor and the highest priority for scum to kill. If so, a little weird scum didn't consider a doctor though with 4T or less if that's the case.
Was it LP that jumped down fires vote on the tie as being reckless due to his being a replacement? I remember thinking fires vote was one of vindictiveness.What was the deal with your vote Fire? You were on the tiebreak then you just leaped onto L_P before day end?
1 shot vig, 1 normal doc, 1 normal cop would be a 3 T or less set up. However 3 T would give a serial killer as well. So I don't think we are dealing with that.
2 T means we have another pr afoot, and scum have both a god father and a role blocker with no SK.
Can consider more options when I'm not on mobile
You didn't seem very suspicious of Hyper and null read him so why did you vote for him in the end?Hmm, fair points
What was the deal with your vote Fire? You were on the tiebreak then you just leaped onto L_P before day end?
I only moved from L_P to break the tie. When I switched back it was clear Hyper was going to be lynched without my help so I went back to where my gut feeling was. I was obviously wrong, but I generally think having all players on a single player at day end is less useful than having the votes be a bit more scattered.
Was it LP that jumped down fires vote on the tie as being reckless due to his being a replacement? I remember thinking fires vote was one of vindictiveness.