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MLB '12-'13 OffSeason OT: Magic is the New Market Inefficiency

W

Windu

never heard about the cat, apparently
There was no name that caused more debate in organizations around baseball this offseason than “Upton.”

There were impassioned debates on the Upton issue, talent vs. intangibles. There were baseball people who pleaded with their teams to go after B.J. Upton as a free agent and to deal with Arizona for younger brother Justin Upton, and there also were those who said “over my dead body” would they have either.

Officials in one American League East organization were virtually unanimous in the opinion that neither Upton was for them.

The Braves, however, bought the family. They signed B.J. as a free agent and then traded the very-consistent-and-full-of-intangibles Martin Prado and prospects for the upside of Justin’s amazing yet spotty talent.

From a skills point of view, you understand why B.J. and Justin will be two-thirds of a potentially explosive outfield, with Jason Heyward the other third. They have every tool imaginable, but both have been short on the intangibles and consistency of performance.

“A lot of talent,” said a longtime National League scout who advises his GM on trades. “Could be dangerous and could be flammable for the Braves.

“Justin is a good talent but has gotten worse in the field every year, and they both lack consistent concentration that frustrates teammates and fans. Having said all that, not a bad gamble to see if putting them together brings out the best.”

It’s obviously a great story to have brothers in the same outfield.

“People ask me all the time, do I think having them both together will be a good thing?” said an AL scout who has watched Justin since he was 14 in the Area Code Games and B.J. throughout his career. “I say yes. These kids come from a good family with a strong upbringing. These kids were raised right.

“You can say what you want about the inconsistency of their performance, but B.J. has averaged about 40 steals a year the last five years. His home run totals have gone up every year and he’s 28. Justin has had a career-type year already. He’s had a few injuries, which have kept him down.

“What is it we’re looking for here? Power, defense, speed? Teams really don’t want that? Have they seen what’s coming up through the minor leagues? Do you see players like that growing on trees?

Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers basically tried to deal Justin in three offseasons before finally pulling the trigger. He tried to get the Red Sox to take him for Clay Buchholz two years ago. Tried again this offseason. The Red Sox did not bite, even though they’re one of the teams that like Justin.

There has always been a frustration factor because even though the skills are there, sometimes the will, desire, and mental commitment aren’t.

The Braves’ hope is that playing together will create a bit of family competition and the best of the mental side will come out.

Yet there are so many baseball people who share the opinion that free agent center fielder Michael Bourn, whom the Braves discarded, is a better player than B.J. Upton. The Braves wanted to get a bit more righthanded, and Bourn’s original asking price after a solid season was steep. Amazingly, Bourn is still out there, shut out of the center-field market, while the Uptons have been reunited.

There are special assignment scouts who have watched both Uptons for a few years and wouldn’t recommend them if they were the last players standing. Yet B.J., 28, is entering the prime of his career and Justin, 25, has put up good numbers for a player his age.

“In my opinion, they are both overhyped and overpaid,” said an AL special assistant.

The Upton proponents will tell you, “Just wait until these guys hit their prime,” while the opponents say, “They’ve both been in the league for a while and they’re not winning players.”

We have seen B.J. drop routine fly balls and get picked off, and we’ve seen him play Gold Glove center field, steal second and third on successive pitches, and come up with late-game heroics. Coaches in Tampa Bay were often frustrated that B.J. couldn’t make the adjustments to smooth out his swing.

B.J. had his best season at age 22 for Tampa Bay when he hit .300 with 24 homers, 82 RBIs, and 22 steals. Last season, he hit a career-best 28 homers but his on-base percentage sank to .298. In 2011, Justin hit .289 with 31 homers, 88 RBIs, and an .898 OPS, but last season he slumped to .280 with 17 homers and 67 RBIs.

Their talent is clear in the fact that they’re the first set of brothers to be drafted No. 1 and No 2 overall: Justin No. 1 by Arizona in 2005 and B.J. No. 2 overall by Tampa Bay in 2002. They also were the first brother act to record 20 homers and 20 steals in a season.

Athletically, you’re not going to find a better outfield in baseball than Atlanta’s. The Braves have lost the intangible gift that Prado gave him and his effect on teammates (as they did by losing David Ross at the catcher position). So this could answer a great baseball question: Is talent greater than intangibles?

The Uptons will be at the center of that debate.
Click to expand...
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2...purs-debate/2lga8flNLTfIErTdIby28M/story.html
 
A

alstein

Member
I'd feel a little more confident in the Uptons if Bobby Cox was still managing instead of Fredi. I think Fredi's good in this department, but Coc got Ozzie Guillen and Gary Sheffield to buy in 100% during his career, he could work miracles on most players (just not Yunel Escobar)

Also, the Braves do have to take a few risks to keep up with the Nats, they can't spend the money the other NLE clubs can.
 
M

Mr. Enigma

Member
This is the first major risk Wren has taken since he took over for Schuerholz in 2008. He's mostly played it safe, but this trade is a big one. Trading Prado is a move that sent an uproar through the fanbase. The clubhouse is suddenly without a lot of veteran leadership (Chipper, Hinske, Ross all gone). Losing the massively popular Prado was a big move to make in light of all that.

There's always a chance both Uptons have disappointing seasons. If Prado has another All-Star year and gets an extension in Arizona while the Uptons play below expectations, this whole thing could blow up.
 
A

alstein

Member
Dominican Power said:
I firmly believe that these moves are going to blow up in Atlanta's face, and I'm going to revel in it. The Nationals are going to be the reigning NL East champs.
Click to expand...

Even if these moves don't blow up the Nats are still a heavy favorite on my eyes- I can see them winning 105 easily. The Braves are more of a 95-100 win team.
 
C

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
alstein said:
Even if these moves don't blow up the Nats are still a heavy favorite on my eyes- I can see them winning 105 easily. The Braves are more of a 95-100 win team.
Click to expand...
There is nothing easy about winning 105 games. I agree that the Nats look better right now, but I think the separation is 2-4 games at most.
 
M

Mr. Enigma

Member
CygnusXS said:
It was 4 games last year, and neither team has gotten obviously better or worse.
Click to expand...

The two big additions this year for the Nats are Denard Span and Rafael Soriano. I'd argue that neither of these really changes things. Span provides the same value as Morse, but in different areas. The Nats bullpen was great until Clippard started melting down in September, so Soriano is just going to stabilize things instead of make things better because it was already great to begin with.
 
D

Dmncnby2k9

Banned
Mr. Enigma said:
The two big additions this year for the Nats are Denard Span and Rafael Soriano. I'd argue that neither of these really changes things. Span provides the same value as Morse, but in different areas. The Nats bullpen was great until Clippard started melting down in September, so Soriano is just going to stabilize things instead of make things better because it was already great to begin with.
Click to expand...

Full year of Strasburg and Harper. Younger guys with one more year under their belt. Should be a hell of a dog fight
 
C

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
Dmncnby2k9 said:
Full year of Strasburg and Harper. Younger guys with one more year under their belt. Should be a hell of a dog fight
Click to expand...
They got almost a full season of starts out of Strasburg last year, plus career years from Gonzalez, Zimmermann, and Detwiler.

Meanwhile, the Braves only got half a season of starts from Medlen last season, whereas he'll be in the rotation all year this time, and had to deal with career worst years from Jurrjens, Hanson, and Minor.
 
W

Windu

never heard about the cat, apparently
Dmncnby2k9 said:
Full year of Strasburg and Harper. Younger guys with one more year under their belt. Should be a hell of a dog fight
Click to expand...
Full year of medlen, Simmons and a healthy McCann. Not to mention Walden added to a already loaded bullpen. No Jurrjens or Hanson. Minor pitching like he did in his last 20 starts all year. Another year older for Heyward and Freeman. Uggla can't possibly be as bad as 2012 (iso was way down) and beachy coming back mid season. Etc.. etc.. etc..

I think the big key for the Braves is McCann bouncing back. It sounds like that shoulder surgery really helped.
 
D

Dmncnby2k9

Banned
CygnusXS said:
They got almost a full season of starts out of Strasburg last year, plus career years from Gonzalez, Zimmermann, and Detwiler.

Meanwhile, the Braves only got half a season of starts from Medlen last season, whereas he'll be in the rotation all year this time, and had to deal with career worst years from Jurrjens, Hanson, and Minor.
Click to expand...

I agree with u, should be a 2-4 gm difference. Dat Braves outfield so good. I believe both Uptons will have solid yrs. dat Braves lineup 1-8 is tough.
 
M

Mr. Enigma

Member
CygnusXS said:
They got almost a full season of starts out of Strasburg last year, plus career years from Gonzalez, Zimmermann, and Detwiler.

Meanwhile, the Braves only got half a season of starts from Medlen last season, whereas he'll be in the rotation all year this time, and had to deal with career worst years from Jurrjens, Hanson, and Minor.
Click to expand...

But Minor was pitching like Tom Glavine the second half of the season. You can't really use that for him.
 
W

Windu

never heard about the cat, apparently
newjeruse said:
No way. Those are sick.
Click to expand...
Not as good as another finalist

VkdKyBx.jpg
 
W

Windu

never heard about the cat, apparently
So the Braves still have 9-10 million left to spend...

I see that Francisco Rodríguez is still available, wonder if the Braves can get him on a one year deal and maybe Kelly Johnson as well.

ibqoXYV64ALIo1.PNG

newjeruse said:
The ones that were selected are better. They should adopt those as their everyday uniforms.
Click to expand...
Meh I like the classic glove logo. Need more of it.
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
Windu said:
So the Braves still have 9-10 million left to spend...

I see that Francisco Rodríguez is still available, wonder if the Braves can get him on a one year deal and maybe Kelly Johnson as well.
Click to expand...

You don't want Kelly Johnson. Apart from a brief blip after being traded to Toronto, he's been terrible for two years. He may give you a couple of home runs, but that'll be offset by a crapload of strikeouts, no walks and iffy defense.
 
D

dmag1223

Member
Hoping we sign Latos long-term. Couldn't give two shits about what Mike Leake gets.

Also, damn, the Pads are lowballing Headley bad.
 
A

andycapps

Member
CygnusXS said:
They got almost a full season of starts out of Strasburg last year, plus career years from Gonzalez, Zimmermann, and Detwiler.

Meanwhile, the Braves only got half a season of starts from Medlen last season, whereas he'll be in the rotation all year this time, and had to deal with career worst years from Jurrjens, Hanson, and Minor.
Click to expand...

Don't forget that Beachy went out early in the year when he was dominating in his starts. When that happened, I thought our season was over. Jurrjens was a liability then, as were Hanson and Minor. Heck of a bullpen to pull us through that time.
 
L

Lambtron

Unconfirmed Member
Mr. Enigma said:
The two big additions this year for the Nats are Denard Span and Rafael Soriano. I'd argue that neither of these really changes things. Span provides the same value as Morse, but in different areas.
Click to expand...
You're severely underrating Span. Span is far, far better player than Morse.
 
D

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
Ken_Rosenthal
Rays agree with free-agent 2B Kelly Johnson on one-year contract, sources tell me and @jonmorosi.

Yep no Myers to start the season, gotta hold back that service time.

Dat Yunel - KJ double play combo. Is this the third time now?
 
J

Jon

Member
We signed Chad Durbin.

Phillies additions this offseason:

- Ben Revere - About the only positive.
- John Lannan - SUCKS.
- Delmon Young - OH MY GOD ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?
- Chad Durbin - JESUS F. CHRIST, WHAT IS THIS, 2008?
- Ender Inciarte - WHAT? I SERIOUSLY WANT TO JUST ENDER MY LIFE.
 
A

alstein

Member
andycapps said:
Don't forget that Beachy went out early in the year when he was dominating in his starts. When that happened, I thought our season was over. Jurrjens was a liability then, as were Hanson and Minor. Heck of a bullpen to pull us through that time.
Click to expand...

Beachy is like a deadline pitcher is he returns to form (unlikely though, and he should be babied this year when he comes back).

I think folks (including myself) think the Nats will be great because of all the young players who should get better next year. I could see Harper having a Heyward-wide sophomore slump though (Heyward was playing with an injured shoulder that year which sapped his power though)

Windu said:
So the Braves still have 9-10 million left to spend...

I see that Francisco Rodríguez is still available, wonder if the Braves can get him on a one year deal and maybe Kelly Johnson as well.

ibqoXYV64ALIo1.PNG


Meh I like the classic glove logo. Need more of it.
Click to expand...

I hope you're kidding.

What I'd do with the money- wait and see who gets hurt, and wait and see if 3B is a black hole (I think Juan Fransisco will be decent if the weight loss helps his play- Chris Johnson will suck).
Hope the Padres are contenders and deal someone for Gyorko in mid-season if that doesn't happen.
 
Y

yankeehater

Member
Jon said:
We signed Chad Durbin.

Phillies additions this offseason:

- Ben Revere - About the only positive.
- John Lannan - SUCKS.
- Delmon Young - OH MY GOD ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?
- Chad Durbin - JESUS F. CHRIST, WHAT IS THIS, 2008?
- Ender Inciarte - WHAT? I SERIOUSLY WANT TO JUST ENDER MY LIFE.
Click to expand...

Mike Adams - Great singing will definitely strengthen their biggest weakness last year which was the 8th inning.

Micheal Young - Very productive offensive player throughout his career who might be able to fill a massive hole for them.

I know you like to be all doom and gloom, and there is definitely a chance that none of the moves work out and the season is a disaster but we will have to wait and see. The biggest moves for this year hopefully will be having Howard and Utley healthy all year and Doc will lso be able to regain his previous form.
 
A

andycapps

Member
alstein said:
Beachy is like a deadline pitcher is he returns to form (unlikely though, and he should be babied this year when he comes back).

I think folks (including myself) think the Nats will be great because of all the young players who should get better next year. I could see Harper having a Heyward-wide sophomore slump though (Heyward was playing with an injured shoulder that year which sapped his power though)
Click to expand...

True, I wouldn't count on Beachy being dominating right when he comes back or even being what he was last year. If he's only solid and not hurting the team this year, then that's all I'd want. Teheran, Graham or Gilmartin will probably take that 5th starter spot until he's back.

alstein said:
I hope you're kidding.

What I'd do with the money- wait and see who gets hurt, and wait and see if 3B is a black hole (I think Juan Fransisco will be decent if the weight loss helps his play- Chris Johnson will suck).
Hope the Padres are contenders and deal someone for Gyorko in mid-season if that doesn't happen.
Click to expand...

I agree, I hope they hold off and see what needs arise during the first part of the season.
 
J

Jon

Member
yankeehater said:
Mike Adams - Great singing will definitely strengthen their biggest weakness last year which was the 8th inning.

Micheal Young - Very productive offensive player throughout his career who might be able to fill a massive hole for them.

I know you like to be all doom and gloom, and there is definitely a chance that none of the moves work out and the season is a disaster but we will have to wait and see. The biggest moves for this year hopefully will be having Howard and Utley healthy all year and Doc will lso be able to regain his previous form.
Click to expand...

Oh man, I completely forgot about Old Man Young. I am expecting decent things from Mike Adams, so I will give him a pass. Don't disguise my "doom and gloom" for pessimism, I am excited for the team this year, but I am more disappointed in the approach the front office is taking. I realize they didn't have the pieces to afford pulling off another wild trade, nor would I have wanted them to do that. I just think at some point you have to play with what you have, instead of trying to make marginal upgrades with "proven" veteran players.

The last player to have over 600 plate appearances for the Phillies before age 26 was Pat Burrell. Why do they insist on letting these guys languish in the minors? I am more irritated with the entire philosophy that Ruben and his cronies are employing.

I'm not even worried about the cost of some of these acquisitions. Lannan for 2.5M, Delmon for 700K and Durbin for 1.1M...these are cost efficient moves. But the problem is that it stunts the development of the talent we already have in the system. At what point can we turn these guys loose?
 
D

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
Jon said:
We signed Chad Durbin.

Phillies additions this offseason:

- Ben Revere - About the only positive.
- John Lannan - SUCKS.
- Delmon Young - OH MY GOD ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?
- Chad Durbin - JESUS F. CHRIST, WHAT IS THIS, 2008?
- Ender Inciarte - WHAT? I SERIOUSLY WANT TO JUST ENDER MY LIFE.
Click to expand...

Ken_Rosenthal
Phillies announce signing of free-agent IF Yuniesky Betancourt to minor-league contract with invitation to major-league spring training.
 
Y

yankeehater

Member
Jon said:
Oh man, I completely forgot about Old Man Young. I am expecting decent things from Mike Adams, so I will give him a pass. Don't disguise my "doom and gloom" for pessimism, I am excited for the team this year, but I am more disappointed in the approach the front office is taking. I realize they didn't have the pieces to afford pulling off another wild trade, nor would I have wanted them to do that. I just think at some point you have to play with what you have, instead of trying to make marginal upgrades with "proven" veteran players.

The last player to have over 600 plate appearances for the Phillies before age 26 was Pat Burrell. Why do they insist on letting these guys languish in the minors? I am more irritated with the entire philosophy that Ruben and his cronies are employing.

I'm not even worried about the cost of some of these acquisitions. Lannan for 2.5M, Delmon for 700K and Durbin for 1.1M...these are cost efficient moves. But the problem is that it stunts the development of the talent we already have in the system. At what point can we turn these guys loose?
Click to expand...

I thought that the reason the Phils were trying to fill in with guys on short deals is because they didnt have anyone MLB ready in the minors at either 3rd base or OF. I agree that they should have tried to give Dom more major league ABs but it is tough when you are competing every year like they have been. Honestly this offseason sucked but there wasnt much better available. I really wanted them to get Hamilton but for whatever reason they didnt want anything to do with him.
 
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