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MLB '12-'13 OffSeason OT: Magic is the New Market Inefficiency

C

Corran Horn

May the Schwartz be with you
Buster M V P

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R

RBH

Member
Interesting article on Turner Field:




For the much-needed attention she paid to the city’s infrastructure, Shirley Franklin became known as Atlanta’s sewer mayor.

Kasim Reed may have something flashier in mind as a legacy. If things go his way, by the time he’s finished, Reed may be known as the stadium mayor.

You already know that Reed is a major force behind Arthur Blank’s effort to build a new, $1 billion-plus home for his Atlanta Falcons. The Georgia World Congress Center Authority would hold the title. A state-approved hotel-motel tax would pay for at least $300 million of the structure – perhaps more, if the Legislature and governor can be persuaded.

This winter, the Falcons project could require the mayor of Atlanta, a former state senator, to return as a full-time resident of the Capitol. While he’s there, Reed may also give some attention to yet another stadium deal in the works.

This one is so fresh that it’s not out of diapers and thus has no dollar figure attached. Conceivably, it could have more of an economic impact on downtown Atlanta than replacing the 20-year-old Georgia Dome, without the taxpayer heartburn.

Through the city’s development authority, Invest Atlanta, Reed is attempting to put together a private-public partnership to develop the vast, vacant stretch between the state Capitol and Turner Field into a live-work-play area on par with Atlantic Station.

Substantive talks are underway, with the 2016 expiration of the Atlanta Braves’ lease on Turner Field in mind. The Braves have never been entirely happy there.

“As we sit here in 2012, this isn’t where we would have this stadium today,” began Mike Plant, the Braves’ executive vice president of business operations. “I’m not saying it’s a bad place, but it doesn’t match up with where the majority of our fans come from.”

Historians will remember that, ‘way back in ’88, the Braves gave some thought to a new stadium in Gwinnett County – for the major league team, not its AAA club.

A converted 1996 Olympic stadium kept the team downtown – where they are likely to remain, given the current climate. “The appetite for taxpayer-funded stadiums is not – in 2012 – probably too high,” Plant said.

In other words, as with tens of thousands of homeowners in metro Atlanta, circumstances have locked the Braves into place. Which leaves the baseball team and its owners no choice but to build a better neighborhood.

“Now we have to create an environment like San Diego, Denver, Cincinnati, Colorado,” Plant said. “They’ve taken challenged areas and used sports arenas for really improving, stimulating some real solid development.”

Plant said the team first approached the mayor of Atlanta two years ago. In August, the city’s development authority sought to take the temperature of real estate investors. A half-dozen have responded.

The Braves envision a partnership that includes themselves, the city, a number of private investors, and the Atlanta-Fulton County Recreation Authority, which owns Turner Field and the 55 vacant acres now devoted to parking – and nothing else.

External features would include residential and retail properties and perhaps even a people-mover to help fans to the MARTA rail line that’s eight-tenths of a mile away. The Braves intend to use cash earned from their investment in the neighborhood to pay for improvements within Turner Field.

“See all those blue seats out there?” said Plant, pointing out of his stadium office window to 55,000 posterior-placement platforms. “That’s a potential $15 million project. We break about 500 of them a year now. They’re rated for 15 years, and we’re going to make it to 20.”

The seats are made in Australia, the remnant of an Olympic trade deal. “We’ve got to replace every seat in this place,” he said.

Brian McGowan, president and CEO of Invest Atlanta, is the shepherd of the Turner Field project. He, too, is highly cognizant of the political climate. The area is a TAD – a tax allocation district. But McGowan said any expenditure of public money would be incidental.

That’s why real estate firms have been sounded out on the project. “We wanted to ‘ping’ the private sector to see how they felt about this. The government can have the grandest of plans for things like this, but if it doesn’t stand the private sector, private capital test, then it’s not going to work,” McGowan said.

(James Hughes Jr., an Emory law professor and chairman of the recreation authority, also said it was unlikely that his board’s bonding capacity would be tapped.)

Unlike the Falcons deal, a public-private partnership to develop the Turner Field project shouldn’t require a great deal of involvement from the occupants of the state Capitol, McGowan said.

But there may be one fly in that ointment. When the Legislature convenes in January, Republican lawmakers will begin their efforts to reduce Fulton County government to a mere shell. Turner Field, owned by the city-county recreation authority, could find itself involved in a tug-of-war. That’s not a welcome thought for the Braves.

“I’m going to rely on the fact that people on both sides of the aisle recognize the importance of this team not just because of what we do on the field, but because of our economic numbers as well,” said the Braves’ Plant. “We’re a viable business that drives a lot of activity and a lot of revenue.”

That number, he underlined, is $104 million a year. And could be much more.

Postscript: There are those of you out there who will note that the Atlanta-Fulton County Recreation Authority doesn’t seem to be at the center of these talks. One word explains that: Fanplex.
Click to expand...
http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insi...debate-the-braves-pursue-something-different/
 
B

beast786

Member
Little Green Yoda said:
Look at multiple seasons then.

2012 Comerica = slight hitters park
2012 NYS = slight pitchers park
2012 Angel Stadium = pitchers park

2011 Comerica = slight hitters park
2011 NYS = hitters park
2011 Angel Stadium = pitchers park

2010 Comerica = slight pitchers park
2010 NYS = hitters park
2010 Angel Stadium = pitchers park

2009 Comerica = slight hitters park
2009 NYS = slight pitchers park
2009 Angel Stadium = slight hitters park

2008 Comerica = slight hitters park
2008 NYS = slight hitters park
2008 Angel Stadium = slight hitters park

Comerica is rated more hitter friendly than Angels stadium in each of the past 5 seasons.
Click to expand...

I don't understand your point? Your stat is about the team that plays in that park. You want to talk about the park then talk about its dimensions.

It's like saying superdome had most TD scored last year hence must be the most TD favor stadium. even though all NFL has exactly the same dimensions., just random number crunching to prove nothing. The fact you are even trying to under value clear advantage of Cabrera power compare to trout is a joke.

EDIT: just saw your last post, pretty impressive info, really nice stuff.
 
B

beast786

Member
Little Green Yoda said:
I don't know if this is what you're looking for but...

Trout had an average true distance of 409.6 feet on his HRs

Cabrera had an average true distance of 407.3 feet on his HRs

Miggy had a 44-30 edge on Trout in total HRs
Miggy had a 7-1 edge on Trout on "lucky" HRs
Miggy had a 16-8 edge on Trout on "just enough" HRs
Miggy had a 9-6 edge on Trout on "no doubt" HRs

I'm not sure if there was overlap and double counting on some of the lucky/JE HRs but part of Miggy's 14 HR edge was certainly aided by ballpark size. Plus this site only tracks HRs so would-be HRs that died in Angels Stadium aren't tracked.

I wish there was a way to filter home/away HRs on that site - even though Miggy wasn't a pull HR hitter, he still hit more HRs to left than HRs to center or HRs to right.
Click to expand...


I just did an overlay of stadium. If trout was in coamerica park 7 of his HR would not have counted. If Miggy played in angel stadium only 1 would have not counted.
 
M

Mr. Enigma

Member
zqIeW.png


This was the guy (who just happens to be a Rangers beat writer) who gave Michael Young his only 1st place AL MVP vote last year, by the way.

He voted for Cabrera
 
L

Little Green Yoda

Member
beast786 said:
I just did an overlay of stadium. If trout was in coamerica park 7 of his HR would not have counted. If Miggy played in angel stadium only 1 would have not counted.
Click to expand...
Fair enough. I'll concede that the park factor adjustment might have unfairly dinged Cabrera (or unfairly rewarded Trout) in wRC+. The defense/baserunning point still stands though.
 
C

Corran Horn

May the Schwartz be with you
World Series champion (2012)
NL MVP (2012)
All-Star (2012)
MLB batting champion (2012)
NL Hank Aaron Award (2012)
Silver Slugger Award (2012)
NL Comeback Player of the Year (2012)


But no, Heyward is better right?
 
X

XiaNaphryz

LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
Bob Costas on MLBN is advocating that MVP consideration should start to take into account the postseason up to the LCS, with votes being submitted before the World Series starts, and that doing so wouldn't necessarily mean someone who didn't make the playoffs would be at a disadvantage.
 
N

Ninja Scooter

Member
XiaNaphryz said:
Bob Costas on MLBN is advocating that MVP consideration should start to take into account the postseason up to the LCS, with votes being submitted before the World Series starts, and that doing so wouldn't necessarily mean someone who didn't make the playoffs would be at a disadvantage.
Click to expand...

Bob Costas can go get fucked.
 
B

Blearth

Banned
Fox318 said:
As awesome as Trout was I never thought I would see a better hit for the triple crown.

Trout is no DiMaggio.
Click to expand...
Miggy's 2012 season wouldn't have won the Triple Crown in any year between 1973 and 2011.

He won because of a lack of great performances in his league, not because he had some sort of Superman season.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
I can't believe people are arguing against a triple crown winner getting the MVP. Miggy's been snubbed for MVP in the past so I'm glad he got it this time.

How about letting Trout pay his dues?
 
O

Opiate

Member
Cloudy said:
I can't believe people are arguing against a triple crown winner getting the MVP. Miggy's been snubbed for MVP in the past so I'm glad he got it this time.

How about letting Trout pay his dues?
Click to expand...

I'm really not interested in "dues," and I don't care about people being "snubbed for MVP in the past." I also don't care if Cabrera has more "guts" or "grit" or any other intangible word which has magical powers and which apparently cannot be measured except by sportswriters laboring to build narratives.

I want the person who appears to have performed the best this year to win, and I want to base the "best performance" on the most objective, optimal, and accurate statistical basis that we have available. That is not very complicated.
 
Blackace

Blackace

if you see me in a fight with a bear, don't help me fool, help the bear!
Blearth said:
Miggy's 2012 season wouldn't have won the Triple Crown in any year between 1973 and 2011.

He won because of a lack of great performances in his league, not because he had some sort of Superman season.
Click to expand...
Doesn't matter it isn't 1973 or 1985

Cloudy said:
I can't believe people are arguing against a triple crown winner getting the MVP. Miggy's been snubbed for MVP in the past so I'm glad he got it this time.

How about letting Trout pay his dues?
Click to expand...

Not feeling making a player pay his dues but do believe Miggy had a monster season

Opiate said:
I'm really not interested in "dues," and I don't care about people being "snubbed for MVP in the past." I also don't care if Cabrera has more "guts" or "grit" or any other intangible word which has magical powers and which apparently cannot be measured except by sportswriters laboring to build narratives.

I want the person who appears to have performed the best this year to win, and I want to base the "best performance" on the most objective, optimal, and accurate statistical basis that we have available. That is not very complicated.
Click to expand...

Hanging on pure stats is just as lacking as using grit as a reason to give an MVP.

Not every HR is created equal
 
B

bluemax

Banned
Blackace said:
WAR is like PER 36 in basketball not really good grounds to say that Trout hit the ball better than Migs
Click to expand...

Wut. No its not. Miguel Cabrera was basically 3 singles ahead of Mike Trout in batting average. You mean to tell me that 3 lousy singles is all it takes to make a difference?

Not too mention Cabrera is ass with the glove and Trout isn't.
 
J

Jangocube

Banned
- Trout should have won MVP.
- Buck should have won Manager of the Year.
- I hate the Marlins for making the weakest team in the AL East a lot better.

Next year is going to be fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuun.
 
H

Heart Attack

Member
2004
Ichiro Suzuki -372
Manny Ramirez - 43
Miguel Tejada - 150

2005
Michael Young - 331
Arod- 48
David Ortiz - 148

2006
Joe Mauer - 347
David Ortiz - 54
David Ortiz - 137

2007
Magglio Ordonez - 363
Arod - 54
Arod - 156

2008
Joe Mauer - 328
Miguel Cabrera - 37
Josh Hamilton - 130

2009
Joe Mauer - 365
Carlos Pena - 39
Max Texeira - 122

2010
Josh Hamilton - 359
Jose Batista - 54
Miguel Cabrera - 126

2011
Miguel Cabrera - 344
Jose Batista - 43
Curtis Granderson - 119


Trout should had been the MVP. But as shown by the stats, Cabrera could had won the triple crown in 2008 with his 2012 stats. He's been very consistent in the last three seasons, but he got lucky in 2012. It's not his fault that other star players were on the downside in the second half of the season. I confess that i'm biased against him winning it, based on the shitty rivals he had to face all season long.

His home run's in 2012 against division rivals.

Royals - 1
Indians -8
Twins - 5
White Sox - 6

Home Run Totals - 20. That's almost 50 % of his home runs against them.

Sure you could argue that he plays 19 games against each divisional rival, and is expected to have better numbers against them.

But the stats for Pitching tell us why his numbers are hyper-inflated.

His Runs Batted in benefited from playing four of the last six ranked teams in ERA 76 times.

His Batting Average benefited from playing 57 games against the three teams with the highest batting average allowed.
 
M

McNei1y

Member
Miggy did the exact same stuff in Florida when he faced NL East teams. He's just taking advantage of the pitching he faces.
 
B

beast786

Member
Heart Attack said:
2004
Ichiro Suzuki -372
Manny Ramirez - 43
Miguel Tejada - 150

2005
Michael Young - 331
Arod- 48
David Ortiz - 148

2006
Joe Mauer - 347
David Ortiz - 54
David Ortiz - 137

2007
Magglio Ordonez - 363
Arod - 54
Arod - 156

2008
Joe Mauer - 328
Miguel Cabrera - 37
Josh Hamilton - 130

2009
Joe Mauer - 365
Carlos Pena - 39
Max Texeira - 122

2010
Josh Hamilton - 359
Jose Batista - 54
Miguel Cabrera - 126

2011
Miguel Cabrera - 344
Jose Batista - 43
Curtis Granderson - 119


Trout should had been the MVP. But as shown by the stats, Cabrera could had won the triple crown in 2008 with his 2012 stats. He's been very consistent in the last three seasons, but he got lucky in 2012. It's not his fault that other star players were on the downside in the second half of the season. I confess that i'm biased against him winning it, based on the shitty rivals he had to face all season long.

His home run's in 2012 against division rivals.

Royals - 1
Indians -8
Twins - 5
White Sox - 6

Home Run Totals - 20. That's almost 50 % of his home runs against them.

Sure you could argue that he plays 19 games against each divisional rival, and is expected to have better numbers against them.

But the stats for Pitching tell us why his numbers are hyper-inflated.

His Runs Batted in benefited from playing four of the last six ranked teams in ERA 76 times.

His Batting Average benefited from playing 57 games against the three teams with the highest batting average allowed.
Click to expand...

all this proves is miggy did what he is suppose to do. beat the crap out of division , and help tigers win that division. I have never seen someone use a strength and spin it to some negative. so basically, then no one from that division should have won the MVP? because every player in that division batting numbers were hyper-inflated?

you want to use his defense, fine, I will totally concede. But this much twisting and turning to neutralize an obvious strength is disingenuous .
 
M

McNei1y

Member
beast786 said:
all this proves is miggy did what he is suppose to do. beat the crap out of division , and help tigers win that division. I have never seen someone use a strength and spin it to some negative. so basically, then no one from that division should have won the MVP? because every player in that division batting numbers were hyper-inflated?

you want to use his defense, fine, I will totally concede. But this much twisting and turning to neutralize an obvious strength is disingenuous .
Click to expand...

Exactly. He was added to help Detroit 5-6 years ago to help beat the other teams in his division and he has done just that repeatedly
 
F

Fenix

Member
The debate's been ongoing here for at least 2 months now, everyone has become entrenched in their own position. I don't think anyone's going to be swayed either way, as everyone has fallen in to the "Someone is wrong on the internet!" mode.

Maybe it's time to drop the argument.
 
BFIB

BFIB

Member
fqtrlolM.jpg


The Cardinals are unveiling new road and alternate home uniforms. This new uni will be worn on Saturday home games for the 2013 season, along with a road uni in the same form factor, just a grey color scheme.

Me likey!
 
N

Ninja Scooter

Member
Doytch said:
People here are defending Miggy's MVP? WTF have you people been getting up to while I've been gone...
Click to expand...

There isn't a single rational reason you can make for saying Mig had a better season than Trout, so people have to hang their hat on dumb shit like "paying your dues!l or Triple Crowns and RBI. They sound like pre-election Romney backers who shouted down Nate Silver's "crazy witch math and science" because it just felt like Mitt was going to win.
 
E

eznark

Banned
McNei1y said:
I know Trout had an incredible season, but people are actually mad that Miguel Cabrera won it over Trout?
Click to expand...

No, people don't give a shit. Basement dwelling nerdo-s sitting in their PJ's waiting on mom to bring them their grilled cheese are piiiiiiiiiiiissed though.
 
turnbuckle

turnbuckle

Member
First of all: I believe Trout had a better season than Miguel Cabrera.
Second: Any Rays fans upset about Miguel's MVP but happy with Price's Cy Young?


Heart Attack said:
But the stats for Pitching tell us why his numbers are hyper-inflated.

His Runs Batted in benefited from playing four of the last six ranked teams in ERA 76 times.

His Batting Average benefited from playing 57 games against the three teams with the highest batting average allowed.
Click to expand...

But this is ridiculous. Cabrera has a history of hitting exceptionally well against just about any team. There's obviously the issue of small sample sizes when we're talking about 4 or 9 or 17 game chunks from a season, but my contention is with what you said about him beating up on the Central Division to inflate his stats.

Cabrera OPS this season against (AL team pitching rank in parenthesis, top-5 pitching excluding Detroit in bold):

AL East

(1) Tampa Bay: 1.173
(4) New York: 1.167
(8) Baltimore: 1.516
(11) Toronto: 0.730
(12) Boston: 1.169

AL Central

(6) Chicago: 1.057
(10) Kansas City: 0.738
(13) Minnesota: 1.162
(13) Cleveland: 1.110

AL West

(2) Oakland: 1.377
(3) Seattle: 0.535
(7) Cali/ana/los wtf: 0.727
(9) Texas: 0.981



So, knock Cabrera for his speed and defense but knock it off with making excuses for his offense. The only thing "hyper-inflated" here is apparently your blood pressure or cholesterol.
 
BFIB

BFIB

Member
What I find the most humorous is how the writers continue to change what criteria they use to determine the MVP.
 
D

dvdjamm

Member
If any other S.F. Giant should have gotten a vote or 2,it should have been Marco Scutaro...Hunter Pence hit .219 with the Giants.Why did he get a vote,because of his pre-game speeches?
 
R

RobotHaus

Unconfirmed Member
nemss said:
fqtrlolM.jpg


The Cardinals are unveiling new road and alternate home uniforms. This new uni will be worn on Saturday home games for the 2013 season, along with a road uni in the same form factor, just a grey color scheme.

Me likey!
Click to expand...

So choice. Post Dispatch is running a short article going over the smaller details of it. I definitely want to try to get one.
 
E

eznark

Banned
nemss said:
What I find the most humorous is how the writers continue to change what criteria they use to determine the MVP.
Click to expand...

I don't know, "which guy East of the Rocky Mountains had the most home runs and ESPN highlights" seems to be pretty consistent to me.
 
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