http://kyodonews.net/news/2016/12/08/91430
Baseball: New MLB rules could spark exodus of top Japanese amateurs
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Although the new rules agreed upon by Major League Baseball and its players union have thrown the future of baseball's most exciting star into question, the real impact could be much more severe for Nippon Professional Baseball.
By treating all foreign professionals under the age of 25 as amateurs, MLB's new collective bargaining agreement might lead to an exodus of Japan's best amateur talent, an MLB source told Kyodo News on Wednesday.
Asked if the new CBA, which has yet to be ratified, would encourage young Japanese amateurs to skip NPB and sign directly with major league clubs, the source said, "That is likely."
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MLB's new rule change will make it nearly impossible for another Japanese team to replicate the Fighters' success.
Like Tazawa, Otani told NPB teams not to draft him, but that did not stop Nippon Ham. Otani started on Opening Day as a rookie, in right field, and put up numbers with the bat as an 18-year-old that few but Hall of Famers have achieved.
The world is now raving about both his tape-measure power and his power arm -- he twice rewrote his record this season for Japan's fastest pitch as a starter, but none of that would have happened had he moved to the majors. There, Otani's batting would have been put into semi-retirement because major league teams "know" a player can't do both well.
This year, Otani did for the second time what only Babe Ruth had previously accomplished: a 10-win, 10-home run season. Had MLB's new rules been in force four years ago, Otani would be just another pitcher who could swing a bat pretty well.
In NPB, his numbers offensively through three of his four pro seasons are better than those amassed by Hideki Matsui at the same age. Otani's pitching has surpassed what Yu Darvish accomplished with the Fighters through his first four seasons.
Yet both of those players moved to the majors at a later age. With more time to adapt to major league pitching -- no Japanese batting star has moved prior to the age of 27 and Matsui came at 29 -- Otani's offensive potential now is mouth-watering.
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Asked if it was unfair to deny Otani the opportunity to earn free agency in the majors until at least 2023, the source said, "That was his choice. He could have come over when he was 21. He could have come out of high school."