I wrote a long essay about all the shit that went down this past week. But first,
For years, one of Dana Whites talking points has been that unlike boxing, if something happens where a main eventer falls out, the UFC never cancels the show. After events of the past week, he cant say that anymore.
UFC 151, scheduled for 9/1 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, will go down in history as the show that never happened.
Because marketing was already out for 9/22 in Toronto as UFC 152, 10/13 in Rio de Janeiro as UFC 153, and 11/17 in Montreal as UFC 154, the number 151 will be a historical reminder of the show that was canceled when light heavyweight champion Jon Jones refused a match with Chael Sonnen, after scheduled opponent Dan Henderson had to cancel due to a knee injury. Jones refusal to face a new opponent on such a late date left the entire UFC stunned because injuries and opponent changes are common in this sport. Jones not only is a fighter on a different level talent-wise than Sonnen, but he had a stylistic edge and the advantage of having three months of fight training against a late add who had no camp at all. And it was a five round title fight.
In this case, it was something nobody fathomed, given how Jones has been so dominant, and would face a guy moving up in a weight class who would on paper appear to have very little chance to win. He was being gift wrapped an opponent, one of the companys biggest and best known talkers and given major advantages. Plus, or Jones, he was in the ultimate no-lose situation. It was likely Jones would be one of the largest, if not the largest favorite going in when it comes to odds, for any title fight in recent memory.
But Jones and coach Greg Jackson didnt see things that way. Jackson told Jones that if he took the fight, It would be the biggest mistake of your entire career.
Their argument is that they had no game plan for Sonnen, and that being asked eight days before the fight only gave them three training days to adapt, since hard training ends the week before the fight. Sonnen has some similarities to Henderson, in the sense both are wrestlers, but more differences. Sonnen is a lefty who shoots low and relies on his wrestling to win. Henderson is a right-handed bomber with power in both hands, who uses is wrestling to rough people up in the clinch, but the big punch is his prime weapon. Still, Jones is physically bigger, younger, more talented and would be in far better shape. An in-shape Sonnen had trouble taking down Michael Bisping, and couldnt get Anderson Silva down in the second round, nor stand with him for any length of time.
The show was canceled because it was a one match show, and with the high injury rate of fighters in camp, a one match show on PPV is inherently a risk. But UFC has had problems with late injuries on almost every show. Somehow, things have always ended up working out. This show was hurt when the No. 2 match fell apart when Josh Koscheck suffered a herniated disc in his lower back. This put him out of the fight with Jake Ellenberger. Whether they would have continued the show had Koscheck not been hurt is an unanswered question that may make for speculation, but ultimately doesnt matter. Koscheck was replaced by the returning Jay Hieron, who unquestionably could not viably headline a show of this magnitude. There was nothing of marquee value underneath.
The risk element caught up after White thought once again he had pulled the rabbit out of his hatin this case Sonnen. Sonnens talking arguably could have garnered more interest in the fight than Henderson, even if Henderson was the tougher and more deserving opponent. It was unfathomable, because no fighter in a similar situation had ever pulled out. Did the weak undercard play a part in the show being canceled? A big part.
When White made the announcement, and in subsequent statements and a press release, he blamed the show being canceled almost entirely on Jones, perhaps the most talented young fighter in the sport.
There are two ways of looking at that. The first is that Jones refusal to face Sonnen is what it is, but that part of the job of a promoter is to protect his assets from things that will taint them to the public. Fans want to believe fighters, particularly the champions are people who wont back down from any fight. They hate hearing about anyone turning down fights, even when it makes little business sense. Jones is one of the biggest drawing cards in the company. Forget that hes hard to deal with, and privately people are frustrated with him, the public image should be hes somebody special, who its worth you paying money to see. In the same situation, I would probably think the same about Jones as White did when he went off on him. Id like to think in the same situation, Id put all the heat on Jackson, whether fair or not, and take it off Jones.
The M-1 Global crew did that for years with Fedor Emelianenko, playing bad cop while the hardcore fans believed in this illusion of this fearless Russian killer, whose weakness was a loyalty to management that were keeping the fights they wanted to see from happening.
The other is that the nature of MMA is that this was going to come out anyway. Once Sonnen, the mouth that roared, was asked, and accepted. Jones, with all his talent, turned it down. That revived Sonnen as a featured fighter. He was back doing media and Jones undid much if not all of the damage down when Anderson Silva took him apart less than two months ago. Sonnen is the only guy the past week who came out as a bigger star. Hes got non-stop material, as the guy who made Jones back down. I wouldnt view it that way, but he could and will frame it that way. Some will be entertained. Some will get behind him. Some will be annoyed. But it garners interest and if the fight does happen, it will be box office. But the odds are strong the fight will never happen unless Jones loses the title. This shot was a fluke of needing a warm body. It wont likely happen again. To actually earn the shot, hes going to have to get a few wins as a light heavyweight, and at least one against a legit top level contender. Sonnen would not be the favorite against any light heavyweight in the current title picture.
To tell the story, its best to go back to the start. UFC 151, headlined by Jones defending against Henderson, was looking to be the third biggest UFC show so far this year, behind the Anderson Silva vs. Sonnen fight in July and the all heavyweight show in May. Under normal circumstances, youd be looking at 450,000 to 550,000 buys. The current UFC climate, where the product is cold due to audience burnout, may lead to a lower number than the fight may have done last year.
At some point during the first week of August, Henderson suffered a knee injury in training. That was only a few weeks after the UFC Fighter Summit, where everyone was implored, as they constantly are, to alert White or Joe Silva of any injuries, even if you arent pulling out, to allow them to devise a backup plan. He figured two weeks of rest, while at an inopportune time, it would allow him to heal up enough to get through the fight. He went back to hard training on 8/18. The session didnt go well. That night he went to the Strikeforce show in San Diego. He spoke to UFC officials, told them things were going well, and vowed to have surprises for Jon Jones in two weeks. He was not limping at all.
On 8/19, he tried to call Dana White, but didnt have his new phone number, so it wasnt until 8/19 or 8/20 that anyone in UFC were aware of the issue. One could blame Henderson not following protocol for what ended up happening. But lets just say in early August he had told White that his knee was hurting but, as was his thoughts at the time, he was going to rest it and still planned on fighting. At that point White and Joe Silva wouldnt be so rushed in trying to formulate a backup plan and could set something up if needed. But in this specific case, it played no part in it.
It wasnt until 8/18 that Henderson realized, when he went back to training, that he hadnt healed as fast as he expected. There were positions in a fight that the knee not being stable were going to hurt him in.
Henderson was flown to Las Vegas to see the UFC doctors. Still, on 8/21, Henderson and Jones did a press conference call with White. At the time the fight was still on, but both Henderson and White knew it was at least in jeopardy. I wouldnt expect any hints, and Henderson was talking about having a good camp, no mention of any issues. The next day he was diagnosed with a partially torn MCL. It wasnt bad enough to need surgery, but the doctor said he could not fight on it. Henderson needs to rest the knee for several weeks, then rehab it. He said he would be ready to return and would like to be booked on the 12/29 show. When asked, White wouldnt make any definite statements regarding whether Henderson would get the title shot on his return or not, because you dont know what the state of the division will be months from now.
Word started spreading on 8/22 that Henderson had a knee injury and the fight was in jeopardy. Questions about the card surfaced given that there was nothing of marquee value underneath.
That night, Henderson tweeted about what a great workout he had, mentioning the names of a few training partners. One of the names mentioned was Tarec Saffiedine. That was curious because just a few minutes earlier, someone asked Saffiedine on twitter if the rumors on Henderson being injured were true. Saffiedine said he didnt know, but he hoped not, noting he hadnt seen Henderson since Saturday. Once Henderson posted, Saffiedine took down his post. Obviously Henderson was posting to get rumors stopped that he was hurt. But why, since by that point he knew he wasnt fighting and White had already called and gotten the okay from Sonnen?
The next morning, White called a press conference. It was supposed to be the announcement of Jones vs. Sonnen. Then came his issues with Jones. At 6 a.m. on 8/23, he called Sonnen and told him it looks like the fight isnt happening as Jones wont take it. However, White said that he was still working on it until realizing there was no hope at closer to 10 a.m., when the decision was made to cancel the show because Jones wouldnt fight. Without him, there was no main event.
Ultimately, if they werent going to face Sonnen because they hadnt trained for him, it doesnt matter if Henderson had alerted them, because he was still pulling out eight days before, and even if they had a guy ready who had trained for a few weeks, Jones was not fighting anyone new.
Tons of people were hurt, from fans with non-refundable tickets who were planning on coming in, to hotels and restaurants in the area that were expecting business. All of the undercard fighters had spent two to three months of hard fight training trying to peak on 9/1. They had maybe two or three days left when finding out they werent fighting. Plus, they were likely counting on fight pay for their expenses. Everyone involved was likely at the point of mental burnout and physical burnout. Thats what peaking is, you create a situation where you are in your best possible shape, which is a killer but going any longer, you run your body down and it becomes overtraining. Plus they have the expense of fight camp without the pay for the fight. Granted, the fights are all going to happen over the next few months. The fighters are likely to be closer to overtrained and farther from a peak, but its still fair because both fighters will have faced the same circumstances. But it does increase the injury risk when you keep training at that level for that long. Dana White said they were going to help the fighters out financially to get through that period where they expected to get paid and wont.
UFC and the cable companies took the biggest hit. Both had already started an extensive ad campaign. They were heavily promoting the show, and budgeting expecting a certain amount of revenue from that show, which would be expected to be in the ballpark of $20 million plus in revenue between the two parties.
White then announced Jones vs. Lyoto Machida would take place on 9/22 in Toronto, the very fight Jones had said days earlier he didnt want. Ads immediately ran on the web site. But there was a problem. Jones did agree to face Machida. The prior week he made clear that he didnt want to fight, saying it was a business and he didnt think a fight with Machida would draw since he beat Machida last year by standing choke. And he said, not only would it not draw, but it was a major risk because Machida is very good. He said that he said it because he wanted fans to understand this is a business and educate them to what it is.
At the same time, Jones was contradicting himself saying he wouldnt fight Sonnen, saying this isnt WWE, where you get title shots just because you are popular. So he didnt want to waste his time fighting the guy who wouldnt draw well, who he admitted was really good, because hes a businessman. Based on risk/reward ratio, but didnt want to fight the guy who presumably would draw well, and is the lowest risk.
The problem was, Machida didnt agree to the fight. That was nobodys fault but those at UFC to publicly announce a time and date of a fight that one guy hadnt even been asked about. Machida couldnt be asked because he was flying from Los Angeles to Brazil. When contacted, Machida said he couldnt take the fight on such short notice. Once again, White was shocked that a fighter turned down a title shot. Making that announcement without checking with him is hard to believe, since Machida had turned down a short notice fight in the past with Rashad Evans last year (that Tito Ortiz saved a show by taking). Machida said he wanted a minimum four week camp, so hed just miss the Toronto date. He said hed be willing to face Jones on 10/13 in Rio de Janeiro. But they were now already advertising Jones in Toronto, so the company felt they needed to find someone else.
Shogun Rua was called next. Rua had a tough fight on 8/4 with Brandon Vera, unlike Machida, who was barely touched by Ryan Bader in his win. He also turned it down, saying hed need a longer camp. Sonnen was never spoken with, as White said Jones had already turned Sonnen down. Jones that day was claiming he would have been willing to face Sonnen in Toronto. UFC also has problems with fighters with felonies on their record fighting in Toronto, and that also could have been an issue with Sonnen in doing a short-notice fight in Canada. Instead, Lorenzo Feritta offered the fight to Vitor Belfort, who accepted it.
Late that night, UFC announced Jones vs. Belfort. From a sports standpoint, Belfort has won seven of his last eight, with his only loss being via knockout to Anderson Silva. But hes been fighting one weight class down, like Sonnen. But hes coming off a win, while Sonnen was coming off a loss. Belfort did draw well with Anderson Silva last year. Sonnen would likely draw significantly more than Belfort even if Belfort may be more justifiable based on win-loss record. Oddsmakers then opened the odds at 13-to-1, making Belfort the biggest underdog in recent UFC title match history.
There are a million questions and analogies that can be made for what went down. Who is at fault. Who is to blame.
As far as Henderson, you cant blame a guy for getting hurt, or for an injury healing slower than he expected. He was at fault for not alerting UFC. Jon Jones had apologized and said he would take the blame for the show being canceled on twitter. After doing that, the next day, Jones wrote, Hendo injured three plus weeks ago, who carries the blame now?
UFC has hurt themselves running so many events in such a short period of time. Theyve presented three PPV shows since June that have driven the base of customers down because they were shows so many regulars felt werent PPV caliber. Once Koscheck got hurt, this show, had Jones gotten injured, would have been weaker than any of those three shows. They were in a position where had the wrong thing happened, they would have been forced to cancel. Perhaps this will lead to PPV shows with a stronger No. 2 and No. 3 match, and perhaps cutting down on the number of shows, so the star power doesnt get so diluted. There was a time when the demand for the UFC brand was so high that just UFC coming to town would draw big crowds no matter the card. Recent attendance numbers tell a different story. A weak UFC show without what the public believes are real stars is not selling tickets. The supply of shows, due to the lack of what the public sees as big stars on top, is now exceeding demand. The falling numbers on PPV for all but the big shows tells the same story. Perhaps this is a wake-up call. Perhaps theyll view this as a one-time fluke and that the current business plan is working. Perhaps there is an argument that for all the obvious negatives in ticket sales and PPV numbers, by running all these shows, they are creating television content that in the long run has more value than the lesser money generated from declining ticket sales and bottom-level PPVs.
But Jones didnt get hurt. The guy who caused this show to be canceled was Jones. Simply, if he had accepted, something nearly every fighter in the same situation would have done, the show was going on. Plenty of people made plenty of mistakes. It would have been partially or even greatly Hendersons fault the show was canceled if UFC couldnt have gotten a replacement because he sprung the news on them late. It would have been UFCs fault if they put together a weak show, and then had nowhere to turn when a main eventer got hurt, because every fight it at risk of a late injury. Either you are like boxing and promote based on one fight and cancel regularly, or you are promoting deep enough shows that you have enough to present a PPV quality show if late injuries or other problems occur.
But once Sonnen agreed, UFC had a main event to save. All were at risk of making decisions that could have killed the show. In the end, no Henderson decision had any bearing. In the end, UFC matchmaking did have a bearing, because the show was so weak it couldnt continue when the top fight fell out. But they did have a viable enough show to go forward until Jones declined the fight.
From a business standpoint going forward, this is a bad situation for UFC if Jones isnt an anomoly. Frequent injuries and card changes are inherent in the business as it is now. Every show has multiple changes, some coming days before the show, some a week or two. Many involve fighters with little in the way of fight preparation or time to form specific training for the opponents style. Ironically, almost every fighter on the roster has far more at risk than Jones. Yet every one in that situation doesnt pull out. Guys who havent trained and are asked late turn down fights frequently. But the guys who did their camp, when their opponent gets hurt and a new name is brought in, many say yes with no reservation. Some complain, are told the choice is take this fight or you dont have an opponent, and at that point, almost everyone fights. If main eventers dont, we would have multiple cancellations per year and fans would learn not to make plans to travel from out of town to shows, and the entire UFC live show economy is not based on the local market, but on people traveling to the local market and bringing tourists and revenue to town. Thats the reality of the sport today. Thats one of the responsibilities of being a main event fighter, and even more so, of being a champion.
This was bad enough, but what if, as many suggested, Jon Jones vs. Henderson was put on the FOX show a few weeks ago, Henderson gets hurt in camp, and Jones then says he wont fight a new opponent on late notice. The financial hit wouldnt be as bad as the tens of millions of a big PPV going down, but the broadcast partner would be furious, show sponsors would be furious, and if it happened twice, everyone involved would start second guessing who they are doing business with. Thats the reality. Those arguing Jones stood up for fighters (even though 85-90% of fighters were critical of him, and some castigated them for being sheep, afraid of Dana White, when in fact, they just understood the realities of what being a fighter in the modern sport is) against oppressive management also then would have to accept a business that is in short order going to draw smaller crowds, be less valuable to local communities, and will be perceived as too unpredictable to devote prime time network real estate or to put major money into sponsorship.
In the week since Jones vs. Belfort was announced, Toronto has sold about 1,200 tickets, so the advance right now is 8,000 tickets and $1.4 million. Im not sure if adding Jones to what was a weak lineup that wasnt selling soft tells you Jones still has drawing power after this, or tells you he doesnt. Its way behind the pace of the last show in the city, that Jones also headlined, in his win over Machida. That card, headlined by Joseph Benavidez vs. Demetrious Johnson for the flyweight title and Michael Bisping vs. Brian Stann, was not going to do well on PPV. This will help the show significantly on PPV. Its hard to say if this will pull Jones lowest numbers since he won the title, but one would think so. There is less interest in Belfort as a challenger than anyone hes faced so far. Because this is a unique situation, its hard to say if itll make a difference, and if so, how significant, in people willing to buy to see Jones fight. The only expectation is theyll boo him more than ever, but whether thats good or bad is something well learn.
UFC burying him at every turn risks his drawing power at a time when they have few big draws. And make no mistake about it, that is the company strategy.
But the most perplexing is why Jones made this call. It was a decision based on him and his people having a complete lack of self awareness of the potential value or his name and brand. Even if the argument is he has no responsibility to help UFC, he showed a total lack of big picture awareness of his own personal business. Being a fighter is not living in a vacuum where winning is everything and losing is disastrous. Winning and losing are very important cogs in the wheel of building a career. Coming back from losses and connecting with the public is what makes stars. Only a tiny percentage of fans know win/loss records of boxers or MMA fighters. The masses know the name and the personality and if they think they are stars. Those who dont understand this are left to pontificate about why Randy Couture really wasnt the star everyone thought he was because of all his losses, not realizing its not the masses, but them, who are missing the point.
