Chittagong
Gold Member
Breaking: Iran has recruited Sephiroth to strike down America
The era when governments threatened each other with annihilation using AI slop is certainly something for the history books
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Monitoring the situation in Iran
- Thread starter EviLore
- Start date
The era when governments threatened each other with annihilation using AI slop is certainly something for the history books
DonkeyPunchJr
World’s Biggest Weeb
It's just concept art for Sony's upcoming AAA live service game.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
The main issue is that Iran is just too big and bombings won't change much. So it is really tough situation they are trying to address - will the blockade work? Will something else work? I am not in favor on any deal with IRGC simply because they have overplayed their cards and lied multiple times. Trump is giving them too many off ramps and Turkey and Saudi's are also dragging this out.
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Meicyn
Member
Article: Dr. Alireza Golchini, a surgeon from Qazvin, has been arrested by Iranian government forces for providing medical care to injured protesters and is now facing charges of "Moharrebeh" (waging war against God) — a capital offense under Iranian law that carries the risk of execution.
Braag
Member
I read another article of a soldier who refused to open fire on protesters and he was facing the same charges.
kittoo
Cretinously credulous
Waging war against their imaginary schizo in the sky.
Pathetic.
Hero of Spielberg
Member
US announces multi-day aerial military drills in the Middle East amid Iran tensions
Exercises described by President Trump as an ‘armada’ to be led by the USS Abraham Lincoln amid standoff
www.theguardian.com
Trump stepped down his rhetoric on launching strikes against Iran earlier this month after he claimed that the country had reversed a decision on hanging 800 detained protesters. But as of last week, he had suggested that strikes could still take place, with the carrier strike group being sent to the region "just in case".
"We have a massive fleet heading in that direction, and maybe we won't have to use it," he said.
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Trump's words at any given moment are not reliable indicators of…much, but here's his latest statement:US announces multi-day aerial military drills in the Middle East amid Iran tensions
Exercises described by President Trump as an ‘armada’ to be led by the USS Abraham Lincoln amid standoff
Trump stepped down his rhetoric on launching strikes against Iran earlier this month after he claimed that the country had reversed a decision on hanging 800 detained protesters. But as of last week, he had suggested that strikes could still take place, with the carrier strike group being sent to the region "just in case".
"We have a massive fleet heading in that direction, and maybe we won't have to use it," he said.
I would put more trust in all the military resource buildup happening right now.
Hero of Spielberg
Member
You have to wonder what a deal would be in this scenario.
Braag
Member
Removal of enriched uranium.
Limiting their ballistic-missiles program.
Stop support for proxy armies.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
None of this can be enforced really. And regimes like that are constantly trying to subvert the rules.
Essentially IRGC is unable to.peacefully develop anymore. It can only be oppression and wars.
Braag
Member
I mean oppression has always been the name of the game for them. But they have shat the bed so many times that I doubt anyone wants them to have nukes at this point. Doubt even China or Russia would really prefer that.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
China and Russia does not care because it just creates more chaos for the region there meaning USA will have to be involved more. Trump is trying to pull out as much resources as possible from various players because USA has been spreading too thin all these years.
At this point the only solution is the complete regime change. But the problem is that nobody knows what is going to happen next. There are a lot of potential benefits, but also possible mess. Iran is essentially the mountain version of Nazi Germany in 1944 or something. There cannot be a peaceful solution anymore. Even the blockade idea is about forcing elites within to overthrow IRGC, but IRGC (just like SS in the Nazi Germany) is just to embedded into iranian infrastructure. Though at very late stages of 1945, the german army was fighting SS too.
That's why there are no "good solution" there. Pahlavi has no power within Iran (sorry, but students chanting his name mean nothing as IRGC demonstrated that they can suppress them if they want to with little to no pushback from anybody) and I am vary of him due to his european ties. And local elites seem to be fine with more and more weakened IRGC and ayatollah. Plus when the real push came to shove, the Gulf monarchies, Turkey and even Israel are not that eager to finish off Iran.
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One tactic is try to pull a 'reverse Putin' and empower select minority groups inside Iran to chip away at the country. Take the Kurds, for example. Give them weapons and air cover to finally make their own country, Iraq and Turkey be damned. Of course the Kurds would be foolish to trust the fickle US but it would be an option to begin to undo the post-WW1 borders and let these countries/ethnic groups re-shake themselves out.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
Very hard to achieve. In case of Ukraine you at least had Russia (big country) and russian speaking group of people. In Iran a lot of regional groups are basically terrorist groups of all the neighbouring states. Even iraqi shia groups do not like iranian shia groups (they have to work with each other but by and large, they are not exactly the allies). Technically there are 3 potential groups that could split Iran, but splitting Iran comes with additional instability caused by ethnic tensions and elites within. At best there is a neutral azerbaijani group (that hates Shakh), you have a group that is also at war with Pakistan, I think there is some sus stuff with Afghanistan too.
Kurds are too splintered to have a country, have no real power without perpetual foreign support (they don't have enough people to fend off anybody aside terrorist groups by themselves), they are hated by arabs and turks. The whole mesopotamia is basically about various groups hating or oppressing each other. USA working with kurds have nothing to do with trust - nobody is trusting anyone. Kurds were a useful tool, but they failed to become anything more than that - after all these years they are still splintered between factions to build a functioning government, and by themselves they are not strong enough to do anything. You basically have Turkey + Syria + Iran + maaaybe Iraq (partially) + arabs vs kurds + Israel (but Israel won't do anything). Supporting kurds there do not make sense unless kurds become able to function independently in some shape or form.
Ideally, Shakh could have done something to become somebody like Lenin - with powerful army support from within and some agreements from other groups (like I will give you autonomy etc). But it is not going to happen as the local elites are still strong within Iran, IRGC still has power so the support of students won't do much. I do wonder what USA is going to do. They need to do something that would lead to - "Iran gives up" situation.
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BlackTron
Member
Sure, "bad guys" can plant these seeds in "good guys" turf because good guys are tolerant and have rules. What happens when you flip the script, and good guys try to plant seeds on bad guys turf? They stand by and let it happen without noticing until a problem boils over?
No, you let the kurds fight like they want for their "ancestral homeland" or how ever you want to spin it and use that as a pretext to strike Guard formations that try to interfere. But there could be a concrete attainable goal there. As it is, how do you support civilians in a general coup? Other than outright invasion or some serious assassinations, that cause is far too diffuse to help.
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