TransTrender
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Monitoring the situation in Iran
- Thread starter EviLore
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Critical Hit
Member
But what will they do? Kill Khamenei? I doubt it. Or Kill most of the IRGC? I doubt it too. And these are the only things that could help with the protests.
Lord Panda
The Sea is Always Right
Couldn't upload the better quality version for whatever reason.
edit: source - https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2010125664066637824/vid/avc1/720x1184/_MiDlM9knDQkWzLl.mp4
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TransTrender
Gold Member
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MidGenRefresh
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Unknown Soldier
Member
The Pentagon Pizza Tracker is a memeSomeone on Reddit reporting unusually busy activity at the Papa John's near the Pentagon rn
There is a pizza parlor on site in the Pentagon and lots of other restaurants so staff never need to leave the building when they are working
ChuckeRearmed
Member
The main issue is the timing - right now the protesters are still disorganized and have no leader and there is no fragmentation in the elite. It has basically reached a balance between IRGC and the protesters.
Armies and the police are unwilling to join it seems. Pahlavi influence is irrelevant, so the only option is to attack but to attack in such a way where every leader of IRGC is eliminated at once. But the timing is crucial there.
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efyu_lemonardo
May I have a cookie?
The only way I see this working is if a significant portion of the IRGC are willing to disobey orders and/or defect.
Imagine living through it for the past years. My nerves are completely shot.
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Critical Hit
Member
Israel destroyed the entire Hamas leadership, but that did not destroy Hamas. Eliminating the leaders of the IRGC will achieve nothing (even all at once). In Iran, everything depends on Khamenei, but for Trump, this is too much trouble, while Netanyahu has nothing left to lose, so it is entirely possible to pull it off with Israeli hands.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
No, elimination of Khamenei is not a trouble for Trump. Who is willing to take power later is the trouble. With or without Israel.
Hamas is different because it is just a terrorist group (just like houthis). Iran has its own elites. IRGC is just a glue that connects them all.
Critical Hit
Member
Maduro was not recognized as a legitimate president and had ties to drug traffickers, so his removal would not have had any significant consequences. The removal of the legitimate leader of another country without trial or investigation is a completely different matter.
The IRGC is the only "elite army," as far as I know. Without it, Khamenei would have no (fire) power. But in the army, there is a working hierarchy, and it is always possible to promote someone to a vacant position. With dictatorships, however, the situation is different; removing the leader would disrupt the entire structure.
Israel destroyed most of the military leadership, but the formal one is still alive. Unfortunately.
winjer
Gold Member
This idiot should remember what happened 6 months ago, when Israel destroyed all their defenses with no contest.
The USA can do it even faster, easier and deadlier.
Critical Hit
Member
Oh, you're right. I thought the attack in Qatar had been successful.
Warspite
Member
They also seem to have forgotten the B2's bombing the shit out of their nuclear program in June 2025.
This isn't an unexpected statement, "attack us and we will attack someone else in response" is the sort of hostage taking you would expect from a dictatorship.
I don't think or see how they could have rebuilt either their air defences or ballistic missile stockpiles since last year, they are more exposed than ever and they know it. So expect something desperate from them soon.
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winjer
Gold Member
kpopSuperstar
Gold Member
Angry_Megalodon
Member
The present mass media don't represent the free market. Actually, they are against it. That's why they attack their competition ferociously. Just see what happens when some youtuber or random citizen dares report scandals they don't even talk about. They don't do any actual journalist job, just repeat official talking points. COVID was the paradigm of this, with hundreds of retards with a journalist license NOT EVEN ASKING what was going on in a certain max security lab in Wuhan. That year the media went full masks off and quit pretending they were actual reporters.
It's not that they are simply "biased", they are funded by leftist parties and globalists groups. The mass media, in general, have become an institution whose purpose is to belong to a superior caste just like the Church did in the past.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
Except Maduro was recognized as a president too even if those countries are not "the side I support". Recognition of an authority is nothing, just like the International Law means nothing. Presidential recognition is a formality really.
In Iran they don't even have elections for ayatollah aside within their own ranks. They have presidential elections, but by and large they do not mean much due to IRGC control.
Well Venezuela is not a dictatorship really. At least not "Assad-like" or anything.
The problems in Iran are the lack of protest leaders, no opposition structures, security forces do not side with the protesters, the elites are still united, the external opposition (the prince) is irrelevant to the domestic agenda and lacks sufficient authority within the country. Like, why would elites that has been in Iran for the last 50 years would give away their power to some foreign guy, even if he is related to their former king?
That's why if the attack happens, it will be done only and only if it will lead to a situation where IRGC will become a losing side - otherwise there won't be a strike as long-term in the current situation the protesters will lose. Ideally the former king should go and contact forces on the ground - various groups and make promises to them that "I will get in power and grant you this and that". Essentially for Trump - and Israel - ayatollah disappearance would be no different from Maduro. Even if the remaining people will shout "death to america", it means nothing as words are for the internal consumption.
Post attack they will have sticks and stones.
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kruis
Exposing the sinister cartel of retailers who allow companies to pay for advertising space.
This is IMO why it's a bad idea for the US and/or Israel to bomb Iran and kill the top clergy/military leaders. This should be a homegrown insurrection with so much popular support that it can turn the minds of the undecided and has enough momentum to crush a dictatorship. The moment the west steps in, a popular revolt becomes a western ploy to crush not the current government but the country as a whole and the military will want to defend itself and the government and certainly not join forces with the protesters.
Tams
Member
Frankly, it doesn't matter who recognises who. Those are just words, and as recent days have shown, words mean very little.
The IRGC don't need to be eliminated in full (well, eventually, yes), but they do need to be scared to be active.
This would require sustained strikes on their new leaders and key facilities. Then, if many of their members are too scared to operate (at least openly), the protestors will be able to psychological subdue by outnumbering them. If the cucked Iranian military and police then join the protestors in large numbers and across Iran, then there's a good chance a revolution could happen.
The IRGC don't need to be eliminated in full (well, eventually, yes), but they do need to be scared to be active.
This would require sustained strikes on their new leaders and key facilities. Then, if many of their members are too scared to operate (at least openly), the protestors will be able to psychological subdue by outnumbering them. If the cucked Iranian military and police then join the protestors in large numbers and across Iran, then there's a good chance a revolution could happen.
Critical Hit
Member
That 'if' doesn't work because, in this case, the only thing that matters is the "side I support".
To keep their current seats. There must be a deal.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
Because the only thing that matters the side I support. China trades with Russia despite tons of sanctions on Russia and in general considered the bad guy by Europe. Yet Europe trades with China. Same with Venezuela. So whether some countries recognize others or not, it does not matter. Power matters.
That's the main thing - they should really feel afraid to lose their heads and seats for that to work. Pahlavi can't do much sending messages from X and traveling using Air France. Literally another Elbaradei. If he wants a change he needs the military support and not the foreign one. So he has to go and make deals if he wants the power. And that's the main issue - the student protests will die out in time. IRGC can wait, it will weaken and other elites will be able to become more influential in the governance as they for sure would use this opportunity to turn ayatollah into even more weaker figure. USA and Israel can strike to tip the balance in favor of protesters but the former prince (or some other elites) has to offer a "deal" for other groups.
One thing I like about Trump - while he is petty - he understands the laws of power (due to his NYC experience probably as he had to deal with various forces there). With Rubio there, he even has a bigger leeway as Rubio is very competent and both Trump and Rubio are willing to be hawks if necessary. Rubio even more so. Rubio is a monster in a foreign policy. Not as insidious as Kissinger though.
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kruis
Exposing the sinister cartel of retailers who allow companies to pay for advertising space.
The protesters would also be scared too operate out and about when there's continued bombings all over the country..
ChuckeRearmed
Member
Yeah. Basically you need - sounds like an oxymoron - surgical mass scale assault that includes destruction of almost everything, including underground bunkers and facilities. Basically something comparable to nuclear strike but not nuclear. That might also include kidnapping some people.
Tams
Member
Well yeah, it's not the moment of the bombing/strikes that would be the main threat.
It's the targetting of IRGC facilities. While such organisations can be run disparately, they become far less effective. To be effective they need to have centralised points for face-to-face meetings, training, weapons storage, camaraderie, etc. Rebels/terrorists need far less of that, but those wishing to control a state do.
Critical Hit
Member
It's not the same. They're trading because they have no choice, not because China is a superpower.
Actually, I think the main thing is to make Iran a secular state, that is, to remove the influence of the religious part of the establishment. In other words, even without any crown princes, it could become much freer if Khamenei and his associates were removed and the IRGC was transferred to the category of a regular army under the president's command.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
LMAO good luck with that. It is like asking to turn NK into a democracy. Last time liberals tried to do that they got the Muslim Brotherhood. Secularism, democracy etc. Societies should get to that themselves, not with a foreign push.
Yeah, it is a very tough situation. Pahlavi should do more if he wants to gain power.
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They are waiting on an extra spicy pepperoni.
I do believe they have different plans in advance, I guess they need some coordination from surrounding countries.
darrylgorn
Member
He'll make them go in sooner.
If he believes there's an opportunity for political gain, he'll take it. The problem is that his belief doesn't usually line up with reality.
If he believes there's an opportunity for political gain, he'll take it. The problem is that his belief doesn't usually line up with reality.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
Which one can even provide any support? Iraq is a mess, Afghanistan, Pakistan are mess. Turkmenistan is irrelevant. Azerbaijan is irrelevant. Turkey? Too busy in Iraq and will just wait. Arab states won't move due to shia living in their countries too.
It is basically USA and Israel together. And even then it is mostly USA know because Israel alone won't be able to move a needle. There are too many risks in the fall of Iran, both inside and outside - Pahlavi should do something really.
UAE. Saudia Arabia. Those countries hate Iran and would like to see it fall.
I doubt Israeli will officially join anything, prob only in the background.
Critical Hit
Member
Iran was already a secular state, I don't see anything lmao about that. And I wasn't talking about democracy.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
SA has recently started the moves to consolidate the power in Yemen, defeating the a part of the regime propped up by UAE. UAE is a part of Abraham Accords and SA is also opposing Israeli presence in the Somalialand.
Qatar signed an article 5 like protection with USA. If the rumors about an alliance between SA + Pakistan + Turkey is true, it adds additional dynamics too. Region is changing.
It wasn't really. The reason why ayatollah won - aside liberals in the cities supporting him - was due to the rural areas being religious. It was similar to Erdogan in Turkey, where the rural areas are much more religious than liberal cities. All the photos from THAT Iran, are from the cities and such. Iran has always been a very complex state.
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Bojji
Gold Member
He already acts like a King and do whatever he wants.
Nocty
Currently Steaming
Sooner or later a Jamie Lannister will occur, it always ends the same way. He will go a step too far and someone in his camp will start the overthrow process.
calico
Member
He has had his hands tied by the courts many times. A King would not.
US Presidents simply have a lot of unilateral power when it comes to military action.
LordCBH
Member
I am not against the US going in and killing the terrorist leader of a terrorist state. Islamic Iran has had a direct hand in the absolute destabilization of the entire region since they took over. There can be no peace without the fall of the Islamic regime in Iran, and the sooner it happens the better.
TheChadOfGaming
Member
This isn't accurate. BLM was 2020 and it needs Tesla and ice riots
Couldn't upload the better quality version for whatever reason.
edit: source - https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2010125664066637824/vid/avc1/720x1184/_MiDlM9knDQkWzLl.mp4
I'm curious where this is coming from. That sounds a lot more like treason level intelligence leaks than some pentagon press release. Kinda like that congressman saying "The japanese can't hit our subs because we dive too deep!" in WW2. Revealing that we can't engage yet is a HUGE nugget to let slip. Probably just clickbait interpretation though.
What I've read about the revolution of 1979 does line up with that. It was, at least in the moment, a widespread sentiment in favor of change and not every Iranian group had the same beliefs. You had a grand alliance between the bazaar merchants, the rural conservatives, religious scholars, city liberals, student movements, pro-soviet communists, secularist politicians and others. It was ultimately the religious leadership that took final control over the new state structure, in practice, but for a few months and arguably years they had to share power and accommodate other interests.
The Shah, for all his modernist ways and secular sympathies, was still an authoritarian. Many groups had legitimate complaints against him. He both failed to grant sufficient democratic reforms when there was still plenty of time and also failed to properly deal with Khomeini, who ballooned into a much larger problem over the years and, if anything, his exile made him more famous. Much has been said about SAVAK, his repressive secret police, but in the end the Shah was also getting too old and sick, so he didn't want to go for a full bloodbath.
Unfortunately, the current ruling authorities of Iran are, in fact, more than willing to go for said bloodbath. If foreign forces don't carry out some kind of strategic move or surgical strikes, nobody is going to stop them.
I don't know as much about Turkey, but I get the impression that, despite Erdogan's best attempts to erode them, Turkey still has strong secularist roots.
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kruis
Exposing the sinister cartel of retailers who allow companies to pay for advertising space.
Or that anonymous Twitter account is just pulling tales from his ass. At least newspapers are less prone to do that without actual sources.
Topher
Identifies as young
Congressional leaders are also saying no. He isn't a dictator. Dictators are not told "no".
ChuckeRearmed
Member
Well he is trying, but it is just not working that great for him. Still he was able to suppress a lot of tension within. Ataturk has done a great job.
Yeah, Iran is a very complicated state. And the baggage of Pahlavi dynasty is also something the former prince will have to deal with. I don't see him succeeding just on the support of protesters. That's why USA is looking and waiting on how it is going to develop.
For all of it this people, dictatorship is whatever they don't like. Trying to ban X? Not a dictatorship. Unbanning X? Dictatorship! Arresting people for online posts? Not a dictatorship! Arresting people for attacking federal officers? Dictatorship.
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