Support NeoGAF

[Azzanadra]

Lol I remember when people kept saying that this will only make Trump more popular when the riots and other things were continuing to happen. I thought it was dumb and short sighted and I guess I was right. Normal people can only take so much fuckkery in a presidential election.

Tomorrow we will find out if all that really had an effect on the campaign- personally I think the people who will vote for Trump were dead set on him since day 1, so nothing will change their minds.

 

[kame-sennin]

it's a lot more democratic than it used to be

remember these are just internal selections within political parties

they don't have to do any of it

but you're right that it's going to feel really damn wrong for people to go out and vote and then have that not mean a whole lot

the Republican party is going to be... interesting this election lol

This is true. The problem is that in a two party system, having no say in the primaries makes things really undemocratic. Apologists for the American political system have long argued that our system represents a broad spectrum of political beliefs because of open primaries. Stuff like brokered conventions and super delegates spits in the eye of that argument.

 

[Link]

Uh... an antidote.

This analogy isn't working.

Nah, it would cure you of what you have but then make you sick with something else. Like treating Ebola by giving you cancer or something.

 

[Tom_Cody]

Can You Get Trump To 1,237?
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/

538 put up an interactive feature to test out different delegate scenarios for Trump. It is looking very difficult for him to get to 1237.

 

[border]

Can You Get Trump To 1,237?
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/

538 put up an interactive feature to test out different delegate scenarios for Trump. It is looking very difficult for him to get to 1237.

So according to "Expert" projections he's going to come in at 1201 delegates.

Would it really be that hard for him to get an additional 36? Will they really deny the nomination to someone who came short of the required total by like 2-3%?

 

[gutter_trash]

Can You Get Trump To 1,237?
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/

538 put up an interactive feature to test out different delegate scenarios for Trump. It is looking very difficult for him to get to 1237.

LOL experts have him shy of 36

 

[Tom_Cody]

So according to "Expert" projections he's going to come in at 1201 delegates.

Would it really be that hard for him to get an additional 36? Will they really deny the nomination to someone who came short of the required total by like 2-3%?

LOL experts have him shy of 36

Not exactly. Those projected numbers are from a few weeks ago.

The whole point of the article in the OP is that he is likely to get only 0 to 9 delegates out of Wisconsin tonight, which puts him at 1185 right off the bat. And, based on that, he is likely to perform below those expectations going forward.

As per your responses, he will definitely get close to 1237, but it is looking increasingly likely that he won't cross the line.

 

[pgtl_10]

I don't think running with the plurality from the start is more democratic than complicated fallback calculations and additional balloting.

I think a national primary with a potential for a runoff in case no one wins by a majority is a better system than this delegate mess. It would also be cheaper too.

 

[ISOM]

Tomorrow we will find out if all that really had an effect on the campaign- personally I think the people who will vote for Trump were dead set on him since day 1, so nothing will change their minds.

I guess it did have an effect on his campaign lol.

 

[Tom_Cody]

I guess it did have an effect on his campaign lol.

Even more important than how Trump did is how Cruz did. He over-performed his polls again, this time by roughly ten points.

When you project forward, it looks almost impossible at this point to imagine Trump getting to 1237.

 

[Tom_Cody]

Nate Silver gets into a lot more detail about the delegate selection process and why it favors Cruz over Trump:
Ted Cruz, Not Paul Ryan, Would Probably Win A Contested Convention


And it looks like the prediction markets have adjusted. Not only is Donald down, Cruz is up.
Political Prediction Market: Trump, Cruz almost tied for nomination

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Can You Get Trump To 1,237?
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/

538 put up an interactive feature to test out different delegate scenarios for Trump. It is looking very difficult for him to get to 1237.

I just have Trump Montana and South Dakota and he made it ¯_(&#12484_/¯

What do I win?

 

[Tom_Cody]

A few more recent articles.

Trump's Saturday delegate disaster: Trump had another very bad weekend
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/donald-trump-colorado-south-carolina-delegates-221762

(Video) A great look at the actual delegate selection process in Colorado and the utter incompetence of the Trump people there.
https://twitter.com/jacobsoboroff/status/718744407025946625

(Video) Trump goes 0/34 in Colorado, Cruz sweeps. A look inside the room. Not exactly a shadowy secretive process.
https://twitter.com/tankcat/status/718883669050396672


Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado: A good look a the current state of his delegate pace.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-made-a-mistake-by-overlooking-colorado/

Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era: Compares Trump's delegate pace to past GOP nominees.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-the-weakest-gop-front-runner-in-the-modern-era/

I just have Trump Montana and South Dakota and he made it ¯\_(&#12484_/¯

What do I win?

But he isn't going to win those, so your projection doesn't communicate much useful information.