If Spurs get the #1 seed, it's Kawhi. The Spurs have been surprisingly like the Rockets and Thunder in mostly being carried by one star, and Kawhi has been monstrous in multiple close fourth quarter games the Spurs barely win.
Westbrook only has a chance if the Thunder realize that having an easy schedule for the rest of the season while the Grizzlies, Clippers, and to an extent the Jazz are all stumbling means they should be winning and going for the 4th seed right now.
Lebron's best chance is if the Rockets barely keep the 3rd seed, closing off the season in an ugly manner, while the Spurs remain 2nd seed, and the Thunder maybe at 5th seed. Given the way the media narrative around Westbrook and Harden are, that scenario could lead to him winning due to the other two siphoning votes from each other.
The ridiculously tough vote is if the Spurs get the 1st seed, the Rockets end the season on a streak, defeating a surprising amount of their tough March schedule opponents, and the Thunder catapult to 4th seed. Maybe add the Cavs hitting around 57-60 wins (60 means they lose 3 more for the rest of the season, highly doubtful if you expect at least 1 more rest game from the big 3). In that scenario, 3, maybe 4 players, have a really good argument to the MVP.
I think a big factor in why Harden is going to get it is that I don't see anyone leaving him out of their top 3, while I can see the other candidates being snubbed from their top selections. I just can't see Harden at 4th or 5th or not voted for at all on anyone's ballot. There's going to be people who take Lebron for granted, who think Kawhi is still somehow a Spurs system player, that won't vote for a non-top 3 seeded team.