I'd give it to TD's N' Beer easily.
NeoGAF Fantasy Football Paypal League(s) - Season 4
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I'd give it to TD's N' Beer easily.
Josh's Taco Cabana
1. (12) Matthew Stafford, QB
2. (21) Jamaal Charles, RB
3. (44) Hakeem Nicks, WR
4. (53) Dez Bryant, WR
5. (76) Kevin Smith, RB
6. (85) Matt Schaub, QB
7. (108) Mark Ingram, RB
8. (117) David Wilson, RB
9. (140) Jared Cook, TE
10. (149) Kendall Wright, WR
11. (172) Brandon LaFell, WR
12. (181) Danny Amendola, WR
13. (204) Matt Bryant, K
14. (213) Cincinnati, DEF
1. (12) Matthew Stafford, QB
2. (21) Jamaal Charles, RB
3. (44) Hakeem Nicks, WR
4. (53) Dez Bryant, WR
5. (76) Kevin Smith, RB
6. (85) Matt Schaub, QB
7. (108) Mark Ingram, RB
8. (117) David Wilson, RB
9. (140) Jared Cook, TE
10. (149) Kendall Wright, WR
11. (172) Brandon LaFell, WR
12. (181) Danny Amendola, WR
13. (204) Matt Bryant, K
14. (213) Cincinnati, DEF
The Frankman
Banned
9th Pick, I think I did ok.
I'm Doin It Like Eli
1. (9) Chris Johnson (Ten - RB)
2-6. (24) Julio Jones (Atl - WR)
3-9. (41) Eli Manning (NYG - QB)
4-6. (56) Willis McGahee (Den - RB)
5-9. (73) Pierre Garcon (Was - WR)
6-6. (88) Cedric Benson (GB - RB)
7-9. (105) Lance Moore (NO - WR)
8-6. (120) Rashad Jennings (Jac - RB)
9-9. (137) Matt Cassel (KC - QB)
10-6. (152) Houston (Hou - DEF)
11-9. (169) Kellen Davis (Chi - TE)
12-6. (184) Rob Bironas (Ten - K)
13-9. (201) Jacoby Ford (Oak - WR)
14-6. (216) Emmanuel Sanders (Pit - WR)
I'm Doin It Like Eli
1. (9) Chris Johnson (Ten - RB)
2-6. (24) Julio Jones (Atl - WR)
3-9. (41) Eli Manning (NYG - QB)
4-6. (56) Willis McGahee (Den - RB)
5-9. (73) Pierre Garcon (Was - WR)
6-6. (88) Cedric Benson (GB - RB)
7-9. (105) Lance Moore (NO - WR)
8-6. (120) Rashad Jennings (Jac - RB)
9-9. (137) Matt Cassel (KC - QB)
10-6. (152) Houston (Hou - DEF)
11-9. (169) Kellen Davis (Chi - TE)
12-6. (184) Rob Bironas (Ten - K)
13-9. (201) Jacoby Ford (Oak - WR)
14-6. (216) Emmanuel Sanders (Pit - WR)
Crazymoogle
Member
Bail Kings
1. (6) Tom Brady, QB
2. (27) Greg Jennings, WR
3. (38) Ahmad Bradshaw, RB
4. (59) Demaryius Thomas, WR
5. (70) Donald Brown, RB
6. (91) Fred Davis, TE
7. (102) Jason Witten, TE
8. (123) Toby Gerhart, RB
9. (134) Mike Williams, WR
10. (155) Giants, DEF
11. (166) Jon Baldwin, WR
12. (187) Alfred Morris, RB
13. (198) Jason Hanson, K
14. (219) Steve Smith, WR
Lots of players I`d be uncomfortable with in a typical 12 team league, but I think I did alright given the format. I considered a QB but Wilson went pretty early. Pretty much from round 9 on my team is lottery tickets, which I think is an okay path for a 16 team league. W/T instead of W/R/T was pretty tough though.
1. (6) Tom Brady, QB
2. (27) Greg Jennings, WR
3. (38) Ahmad Bradshaw, RB
4. (59) Demaryius Thomas, WR
5. (70) Donald Brown, RB
6. (91) Fred Davis, TE
7. (102) Jason Witten, TE
8. (123) Toby Gerhart, RB
9. (134) Mike Williams, WR
10. (155) Giants, DEF
11. (166) Jon Baldwin, WR
12. (187) Alfred Morris, RB
13. (198) Jason Hanson, K
14. (219) Steve Smith, WR
Lots of players I`d be uncomfortable with in a typical 12 team league, but I think I did alright given the format. I considered a QB but Wilson went pretty early. Pretty much from round 9 on my team is lottery tickets, which I think is an okay path for a 16 team league. W/T instead of W/R/T was pretty tough though.
UberTag
Member
Long Island Broskis
1. (13) Matt Ryan (Atl - QB)
2. (20) Darren Sproles (NO - RB)
Got the exact first two picks I wanted as soon as my 13th draft slot was unveiled. Return yardage rule boosted Sproles considerably for me... up to the level of the big 3 RBs (Foster, Rice, McCoy).
3. (45) Doug "MUSCLE HAMSTER" Martin (TB - RB)
4. (52) Steve Smith (Car - WR)
5. (77) Miles Austin (Dal - WR)
6. (84) Kenny Britt (Ten - WR)
Actually didn't have ANY of these called out as WRs to target in my pre-draft cheatsheets. But I needed WR depth and really couldn't pass up on the value here.
7. (109) Randall Cobb (GB - WR)
My first of two return yardage receiver deep threats (Brandon Tate is the other). Would have waited longer than Round 7 if Yahoo! didn't have Cobb ranked stupidly high.
8. (116) C.J. Spiller (Buf - RB)
Tough decision between Spiller and Wilson here. Made the homer pick but I'm not exactly thrilled with it despite Spiller typically ranking higher on draft boards. Will be a clutch starter if Fred Jackson goes down with an injury once again this year. I actually think Bradshaw is the more brittle of the two.
9. (141) Russell Wilson (Sea - QB)
Of the 3 drafts I ran today, I own Matty Ice in all three. Russell Wilson is my backup QB in two of them. (Got stuck with Flacco in the other.) Very happy to have him in the 16-teamer to dangle as trade bait later in the season.
10. (148) Kyle Rudolph (Min - TE)
My Week 1 opponent (Josh's Taco Cabana) was sniping most of my picks away on the tail of the snake while Romo Wittenhispants was wreaking havoc at the head. Was hoping to land Jared Cook after waiting so long on Tight End. Rudolph was the last one I was comfortable with starting weekly. You guys went a little too TE-crazy for my liking.
11. (173) Kendall Hunter (SF - RB)
Everyone expects Gore to fall apart. When he does Hunter will be there to pick up the pieces.
12. (180) Buffalo (Buf - DEF)
13. (205) Matt Prater (Den - K)
14. (212) Brandon Tate (Cin - WR)
1. (13) Matt Ryan (Atl - QB)
2. (20) Darren Sproles (NO - RB)
Got the exact first two picks I wanted as soon as my 13th draft slot was unveiled. Return yardage rule boosted Sproles considerably for me... up to the level of the big 3 RBs (Foster, Rice, McCoy).
3. (45) Doug "MUSCLE HAMSTER" Martin (TB - RB)
4. (52) Steve Smith (Car - WR)
5. (77) Miles Austin (Dal - WR)
6. (84) Kenny Britt (Ten - WR)
Actually didn't have ANY of these called out as WRs to target in my pre-draft cheatsheets. But I needed WR depth and really couldn't pass up on the value here.
7. (109) Randall Cobb (GB - WR)
My first of two return yardage receiver deep threats (Brandon Tate is the other). Would have waited longer than Round 7 if Yahoo! didn't have Cobb ranked stupidly high.
8. (116) C.J. Spiller (Buf - RB)
Tough decision between Spiller and Wilson here. Made the homer pick but I'm not exactly thrilled with it despite Spiller typically ranking higher on draft boards. Will be a clutch starter if Fred Jackson goes down with an injury once again this year. I actually think Bradshaw is the more brittle of the two.
9. (141) Russell Wilson (Sea - QB)
Of the 3 drafts I ran today, I own Matty Ice in all three. Russell Wilson is my backup QB in two of them. (Got stuck with Flacco in the other.) Very happy to have him in the 16-teamer to dangle as trade bait later in the season.
10. (148) Kyle Rudolph (Min - TE)
My Week 1 opponent (Josh's Taco Cabana) was sniping most of my picks away on the tail of the snake while Romo Wittenhispants was wreaking havoc at the head. Was hoping to land Jared Cook after waiting so long on Tight End. Rudolph was the last one I was comfortable with starting weekly. You guys went a little too TE-crazy for my liking.
11. (173) Kendall Hunter (SF - RB)
Everyone expects Gore to fall apart. When he does Hunter will be there to pick up the pieces.
12. (180) Buffalo (Buf - DEF)
13. (205) Matt Prater (Den - K)
14. (212) Brandon Tate (Cin - WR)
The Frankman
Banned
I feel good about the 1st half of the draft. CJ2K was the only guy in the 1st I could get. Nabbed Juilo/Eli/McGahee the next 3 picks, decided to go Garcon because I still figured I could get good RBs later on. I did, getting Ced Benson and Shad Jennings with Lance Moore sandwiched in between. From the 9th on...
I took Cassell over Wilson because Wilson shared a bye week with Eli. I picked Houston a couple rounds early because I love their D and the 1st two opponents. HOWEVER, that cost me a shot at some great WR names (Collie/LaFell) and the TE I wanted (Olsen). I did get a nice sleeper TE in Kellen Davis, but I hate my WR depth. In fact I went AWAY from my draft plan by picking a D early, I never picked one before the 12th. Looking back at that part of the draft...
I'm going to have to address that issue.
I took Cassell over Wilson because Wilson shared a bye week with Eli. I picked Houston a couple rounds early because I love their D and the 1st two opponents. HOWEVER, that cost me a shot at some great WR names (Collie/LaFell) and the TE I wanted (Olsen). I did get a nice sleeper TE in Kellen Davis, but I hate my WR depth. In fact I went AWAY from my draft plan by picking a D early, I never picked one before the 12th. Looking back at that part of the draft...
I'm going to have to address that issue.
UberTag
Member
Olsen going in the 7th round was highway robbery. Especially to the Vernon Davis owner.
I was as pissed as you were when that happened.
Stupid flex TE rule. Completely skewed the TE ADP values. I totally didn't see that coming. ESPECIALLY given the shallow benches.
The Frankman
Banned
I never thought people would go 2 TEs while so many good WRs were still on the board. I just don't get it. It never came up in a mock, but of course those were standard rules. Caught me completely off guard.
UberTag
Member
It was a surprising turn of events not only due to the shallow benches but also the sheer number of receivers who can deliver steady return yardage.
A TE2 will almost NEVER outproject a WR3 (so long as you have capable receiver depth) in No Quitters 4 - unless, of course, you own some combination of Graham/Gates/Patriot TEs.
For example, the starting Bengals wide receiver opposite A.J. Green - Brandon Tate (my Round 14 selection and Yahoo's 399th-ranked receiver) is projected for 6.47 points in Week 1.
The number of Tight Ends projected to earn more than that in Week 1? Just 6 (the big 4, Vernon Davis and Gonzo). There are still WRs undrafted on the wire projected to earn more points than that in Week 1. And yet 27 Tight Ends were drafted. Including the already released Kellen Winslow.
Taking Roddy White in the second might have been a mistake on my part. The plan was to take Steven Jackson with that pick, but he went two picks ahead of me to that asshole Konex.
I should have sacked up and picked Fred Jackson or Trent Richardson, but I thought Fred might fall to the third, and I don't trust rookie RBs that early.
Basically my season depends on Roddy playing like a 2nd round pick, Turner not falling off, and either Ridley or DeAngelo Williams putting up RB2 numbers.
I should have sacked up and picked Fred Jackson or Trent Richardson, but I thought Fred might fall to the third, and I don't trust rookie RBs that early.
Basically my season depends on Roddy playing like a 2nd round pick, Turner not falling off, and either Ridley or DeAngelo Williams putting up RB2 numbers.
I picked Keller cos Gates and Dreesen have the same bye. I figure after a few weeks, I'll have a handle on the 2 I want to keep. Also, Gates and Keller were better options than the majority of WRs on the table when I picked them
edit: lol @ Puddles
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Meh!
Drew Brees - Happy
Victor Cruz - Happy
Antonio Brown - Happy (especially considering return yards)
Shonn Greene - Jets, but it is what it is, had I drafted a RB in round 3, I wouldn't have AB, nor Shonn Greene.
Roy Helu Jr. - Just hope he doesn't get Shanahan'd.
Brent Celek - Overrated thanks to last years end of season, but by the time I went for him, he was still the best left.
Devin Hester - Underrated IMO, especially if he gets some good WR playtime. His return game will obviously help him to be stellar.
David Akers - One of the best kickers out there. Happy.
San Francisco - Even overrated as they are, they are still a great D
Bench:
Andy Dalton - Hopefully he doesn't suck...
LaRod Stephens Howling - See Devin Hester. If he starts lighting it up stats-wise, I can use him as trade bait or start him.
Ronnie Hillman - If he gets playtime, he is a good second RB option in Denver...but ehhh
Davone Bess - Happy, got him 13th rd.
Tony Moeaki - Made of glass, but hopefully he stays healthy and starts putting up stats for some trade bait.
Overall, not thrilled with my draft, gotta hand it to the guys in front of me, they got nearly every single player I wanted round after round. This is going to be a fun league no matter what!
Drew Brees - Happy
Victor Cruz - Happy
Antonio Brown - Happy (especially considering return yards)
Shonn Greene - Jets, but it is what it is, had I drafted a RB in round 3, I wouldn't have AB, nor Shonn Greene.
Roy Helu Jr. - Just hope he doesn't get Shanahan'd.
Brent Celek - Overrated thanks to last years end of season, but by the time I went for him, he was still the best left.
Devin Hester - Underrated IMO, especially if he gets some good WR playtime. His return game will obviously help him to be stellar.
David Akers - One of the best kickers out there. Happy.
San Francisco - Even overrated as they are, they are still a great D
Bench:
Andy Dalton - Hopefully he doesn't suck...
LaRod Stephens Howling - See Devin Hester. If he starts lighting it up stats-wise, I can use him as trade bait or start him.
Ronnie Hillman - If he gets playtime, he is a good second RB option in Denver...but ehhh
Davone Bess - Happy, got him 13th rd.
Tony Moeaki - Made of glass, but hopefully he stays healthy and starts putting up stats for some trade bait.
Overall, not thrilled with my draft, gotta hand it to the guys in front of me, they got nearly every single player I wanted round after round. This is going to be a fun league no matter what!
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
The bottom 3 in the league are projected at 2-11! Yikes! That is pretty bad for a live draft, but obviously can be rectified by reality and waivers coming down the pike by week 3.
Damn, in my PPR league, I am projected to finished 11-2, second in the league! LOL
My draft award goes to Enron, overall, his teams jives best with what I wanted.
Damn, in my PPR league, I am projected to finished 11-2, second in the league! LOL
My draft award goes to Enron, overall, his teams jives best with what I wanted.
UberTag
Member
Poor Frankman. Gets no respect from Yahoo!
I'm quite happy to be where I'm at considering I drafted from 13th and not in 3rd, 4th or 6th position like the other guys at 9-4 and higher.
(Oooh... I also seem to be better at screen capturing than Enron. Just look how crisp that image quality is compared to his.)
UberTag
Member
League Projections
Incidentally, Hookers and Blow's point differential is entirely due to Aaron Rodgers and Percy Harvin.
Harvin would have been an insta-grab for me in the 3rd round had he fallen past 3-6.
And I have my doubts about Adrian Peterson doing much of anything this season.
Hearing a lot of red flags about him being on a very limited snap count and then shut down early for the year from folks with sources in the Vikings organization.
By that measure, Gerhart was a savvy pickup by Bail Kings.
do not care
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I will give you your second sentence, but you are not winning 10 games with that team!
But from the lowest projected team to the highest, the difference is one 228 points. Could be a lot worse.
See edit. I was thinking of an NFL-length season, not a fantasy season.
Big Ben is going to quietly put up an extremely solid QB season. No one touches me at WR. I have last year's 5th best RB, and several guys who have the chance to put up great RB2 numbers in a 16 team league. I've got a great value TE.
But hey, Megatron could tear his ACL in Game 1, and that would be all she wrote.
The Frankman
Banned
So... A Elite QB, extremely solid running game, good WRs amounts to 2-11. GTFO here Yahoo...
I will say they're underrating Willis McGahee hard, he's guaranteed 20-25 touches and all the goaline work. Same for Garcon.
I will say they're underrating Willis McGahee hard, he's guaranteed 20-25 touches and all the goaline work. Same for Garcon.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Yeah, I think this season shakes out WAY different than projected.
UberTag
Member
Every season does.
Not only that but nobody ever wins a league based solely on their draft lineup (which is what these projections cover). Working the wire and starting the right players each week is just as pivotal. For that reason, we're guaranteed to see some of those 2-11 teams finish at 8-5. And some of those 9-4 teams finish at 3-10.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
T-minus 3 days for day 1! Both me and Hookers and Blow have a Cowboys player in our lineups, so I am going to be anxiously watching the game!
UberTag
Member
I keep drafting Cowboys to my fantasy teams even though I don't want to. I did it again in NQ4 with Miles Austin.
I absolutely hate everything about that team this season and yet I keep winding up with Dallas players falling to me as apparent "values".
Azwethinkweiz
Member
Yahoo jinxed me, didn't they.
16 team. 2nd pick. NQ4.
(2) Ray Rice
(31) Fred Jackson
(34) Jordy Nelson
(63) Michael Vick
(66) Jeremy Maclin
(95) Darrius Heyward-Bey
(98) Robert Meachem
(127) Owen Daniels
(130) Josh Freeman
(159) Pierre Thomas
(162) Coby Fleener
(191) Dallas D/ST
(194) Jerome Simpson
(223) Rian Lindell - K
I underestimated the kick return yards. I don't think it would have affected my draft too much though. Might have taken Harvin over Nelson. I have always believed that you can't win your draft in the early rounds, only lose it. I went with what I believe to be very safe picks with Rice and Fred Jackson. Those 2 RBs are going to be the backbone of my team and give me weekly consistent points.
I absolutely could not believe it when Vick fell to me at 63. The fact that Matt Ryan went 13th and Big Ben and RG3 went ahead of him just shows the crazy value I got. I don't expect him to play all 16 games but I do think he bounces back from last year.
Taking Maclin with my next pick can be a little risky as well since his value can depend a lot on Vick staying healthy but he has very high upside.
DHB has the potential to be the #1 WR in Oakland. Meachem hasn't been connecting with Rivers early on but he has to throw to someone besides Gates. High upside there.
Biggest mistake might have been taking Fleener but I wanted a backup TE since I waited on TE with Owen Daniels. Overall I really like my team. I wouldn't have done much different if I drafted again and can't wait to do some trash talking and make some big trades later in the year!
(2) Ray Rice
(31) Fred Jackson
(34) Jordy Nelson
(63) Michael Vick
(66) Jeremy Maclin
(95) Darrius Heyward-Bey
(98) Robert Meachem
(127) Owen Daniels
(130) Josh Freeman
(159) Pierre Thomas
(162) Coby Fleener
(191) Dallas D/ST
(194) Jerome Simpson
(223) Rian Lindell - K
I underestimated the kick return yards. I don't think it would have affected my draft too much though. Might have taken Harvin over Nelson. I have always believed that you can't win your draft in the early rounds, only lose it. I went with what I believe to be very safe picks with Rice and Fred Jackson. Those 2 RBs are going to be the backbone of my team and give me weekly consistent points.
I absolutely could not believe it when Vick fell to me at 63. The fact that Matt Ryan went 13th and Big Ben and RG3 went ahead of him just shows the crazy value I got. I don't expect him to play all 16 games but I do think he bounces back from last year.
Taking Maclin with my next pick can be a little risky as well since his value can depend a lot on Vick staying healthy but he has very high upside.
DHB has the potential to be the #1 WR in Oakland. Meachem hasn't been connecting with Rivers early on but he has to throw to someone besides Gates. High upside there.
Biggest mistake might have been taking Fleener but I wanted a backup TE since I waited on TE with Owen Daniels. Overall I really like my team. I wouldn't have done much different if I drafted again and can't wait to do some trash talking and make some big trades later in the year!
I really should have taken Brady or Brees with the #5 pick, in retrospect.
The gap between the top 3 and a low-end QB1 like Big Ben was around 200 points. The difference between Megatron and a low-end WR1 like Brandon Marshall was only around 130 points.
I should have looked at the actual points these guys put up instead of thinking Ben's 4000 yards were good enough.
He needs to get sacked less and throw more TDs. Hopefully those linemen they drafted and the emergence of Antonio Brown can help me on those two fronts.
If I had it to do again, I would have gone Brees, RB, RB. So much WR talent was still available in the 4th, 5th and 6th rounds.
The gap between the top 3 and a low-end QB1 like Big Ben was around 200 points. The difference between Megatron and a low-end WR1 like Brandon Marshall was only around 130 points.
I should have looked at the actual points these guys put up instead of thinking Ben's 4000 yards were good enough.
He needs to get sacked less and throw more TDs. Hopefully those linemen they drafted and the emergence of Antonio Brown can help me on those two fronts.
If I had it to do again, I would have gone Brees, RB, RB. So much WR talent was still available in the 4th, 5th and 6th rounds.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Exactly the reason I took Brees. Probably one of 3 picks i am really happy that I got.
UberTag
Member
Greg Olsen in the 7th. Really? REALLY?
You had a solid draft but you're thin in depth at both RB and WR so be mindful of that going forward.
Those Y! projections only factor in your best possible starting lineup each week. There's no grade for bench depth whatsoever beyond that.
Projections and ADP don't really factor into my draft plans much, if at all. I take who I take based on current need and how I think they're gonna do for the year. At that spot I needed a flex player and none of the WRs available really jumped at me so I grabbed Olsen. With Shockey gone and Cam in his second year, I'm expecting much bigger things from him (full disclosure, I'm a Panthers fan).
As far as depth goes, my bench is only really there to plug in for my starters on their byes so calling it "thin" is relative. Obviously that can change with injuries/performance and all, but that's the plan right now. Once my primary D/ST and K have their byes, I'll drop those secondary ones I have and add some more guys.
UberTag
Member
NO QUITTERS 4 DRAFT ANALYSIS
Round 1
1.01 Arian Foster (Hou-RB) - Romo Wittenhispants
1.02 Ray Rice (Bal-RB) - TD's N' Beer
1.03 LeSean McCoy (Phi-RB) - Ember Island Players
1.04 Aaron Rodgers (GB-QB) - Hookers And Blow
1.05 Calvin Johnson (Det-WR) - Puddles of Win
1.06 Tom Brady (NE-QB) - Bail Kings (NeoGAF)
1.07 Darren McFadden (Oak-RB) - Peyton's Creaky Neck
1.08 Drew Brees (NO-QB) - Omaha Nighthawks
1.09 Chris Johnson (Ten-RB) - I'm Doin It Like Eli
1.10 Cam Newton (Car-QB) - New Orleans Phoenix
1.11 Larry Fitzgerald (Ari-WR) - FPL-Defending Champs
1.12 Matthew Stafford (Det-QB) - Josh's Taco Cabana
1.13 Matt Ryan (Atl-QB) - Long Island Broskis
1.14 Jimmy Graham (NO-TE) - Good As Gould
1.15 Rob Gronkowski (NE-TE) - Sinistar
1.16 Marshawn Lynch (Sea-RB) - Dinner Out
My top priority heading into this draft was to secure a starting QB I was comfortable with... especially after the sack penalty almost derailed my season with Big Ben last season. With the 13th selection that pretty much meant I needed to grab one in my first two picks as I couldn't afford to wait it out as I did in my 8-team co-workers league after the elite options in the field had been taken.
Now if you had told me ahead of time Michael Vick would be selected as QB13 in the late 4th - heck, TD's N' Beer could have even waited until the 5th - I would have gone about things differently. But I knew I had to grab one here, couldn't count on the guys at the end not to roll the dice on QB with two picks each before I could select again. Matt Ryan faces the easiest passing schedule in the league this season and has looked elite thus far in the preseason.
For those of you discussing Matty Ice during the draft, he did look decent LAST preseason as well but he faced one of the toughest passing schedules in the regular season (he was not on any of my draft boards) and still finished a solid 7th. And as far as preseason comparisons go:
2011
Game 1 vs. Miami - 6 for 10 (60% Completion Rate), 90 YDS (9.0 AVG), 1 TD, 122.9 QB RATING
Game 2 at Jacksonville - 7 for 15 (46.7% Completion Rate), 116 YDS (7.7 AVG), 1 TD, 95.4 QB RATING, 1 Rush for -1 Yards
Game 3 at Pittsburgh - 22 for 42 (52.4% Completion Rate), 220 YDS (5.2 AVG), 1 TD, 1 INT, 65.6 QB RATING, 2 Rushes for 24 Yards, 1 Fumble {recovered}
He looked fine in limited action in Game 1. Otherwise, showed mediocre fantasy numbers although the dress rehearsal game indicated he would pass a lot.
2012
Game 1 vs. Baltimore - 9 for 13 (69.2% Completion Rate), 155 YDS (11.9 AVG), 1 TD, 1 INT, 103 QB RATING
Game 2 vs. Cincinnati - 18 for 21 (85.7% Completion Rate), 174 YDS (8.3 AVG), 1 TD, 117.1 QB RATING, 1 Rush for 5 Yards
Game 3 at Miami - 18 for 26 (69.2% Completion Rate), 220 YDS (8.5 AVG), 1 TD, 2 SACKS, 107.9 QB RATING, 2 Rushes for 6 Yards
This year he's clearly been more consistently accurate and impressive. Granted he wasn't facing the Steelers D any of these weeks but, like I said earlier, easiest passing schedule in the league this year. He won't be facing a tough pass rush / secondary most weeks. I'm not a fan of Romo, Rivers or Peyton this year, am lukewarm on Eli and wasn't willing to face the risk of owning Vick with a stripped bare waiver wire.
As for the other picks in this round, most were pretty much by the numbers ADP. Hookers And Blow received a gift in the form of Aaron Rodgers due to the big 3 RBs all coming off the board ahead of him. The only pick I could really question was Fitzgerald going as early as he did (FPL had lots of questionable selections this draft) given the receiver depth and it was a little surprising that Forte slipped into the 2nd round (although I still would have taken Sproles ahead of him). Dinner Out made out like a bandit getting to secure both Lynch and Forte to close out the round and then select a Tight End on par with Graham/Gronk in the 4th.
Winners of the Round: Hookers And Blow, Dinner Out
Round 1
1.01 Arian Foster (Hou-RB) - Romo Wittenhispants
1.02 Ray Rice (Bal-RB) - TD's N' Beer
1.03 LeSean McCoy (Phi-RB) - Ember Island Players
1.04 Aaron Rodgers (GB-QB) - Hookers And Blow
1.05 Calvin Johnson (Det-WR) - Puddles of Win
1.06 Tom Brady (NE-QB) - Bail Kings (NeoGAF)
1.07 Darren McFadden (Oak-RB) - Peyton's Creaky Neck
1.08 Drew Brees (NO-QB) - Omaha Nighthawks
1.09 Chris Johnson (Ten-RB) - I'm Doin It Like Eli
1.10 Cam Newton (Car-QB) - New Orleans Phoenix
1.11 Larry Fitzgerald (Ari-WR) - FPL-Defending Champs
1.12 Matthew Stafford (Det-QB) - Josh's Taco Cabana
1.13 Matt Ryan (Atl-QB) - Long Island Broskis
1.14 Jimmy Graham (NO-TE) - Good As Gould
1.15 Rob Gronkowski (NE-TE) - Sinistar
1.16 Marshawn Lynch (Sea-RB) - Dinner Out
My top priority heading into this draft was to secure a starting QB I was comfortable with... especially after the sack penalty almost derailed my season with Big Ben last season. With the 13th selection that pretty much meant I needed to grab one in my first two picks as I couldn't afford to wait it out as I did in my 8-team co-workers league after the elite options in the field had been taken.
Now if you had told me ahead of time Michael Vick would be selected as QB13 in the late 4th - heck, TD's N' Beer could have even waited until the 5th - I would have gone about things differently. But I knew I had to grab one here, couldn't count on the guys at the end not to roll the dice on QB with two picks each before I could select again. Matt Ryan faces the easiest passing schedule in the league this season and has looked elite thus far in the preseason.
For those of you discussing Matty Ice during the draft, he did look decent LAST preseason as well but he faced one of the toughest passing schedules in the regular season (he was not on any of my draft boards) and still finished a solid 7th. And as far as preseason comparisons go:
2011
Game 1 vs. Miami - 6 for 10 (60% Completion Rate), 90 YDS (9.0 AVG), 1 TD, 122.9 QB RATING
Game 2 at Jacksonville - 7 for 15 (46.7% Completion Rate), 116 YDS (7.7 AVG), 1 TD, 95.4 QB RATING, 1 Rush for -1 Yards
Game 3 at Pittsburgh - 22 for 42 (52.4% Completion Rate), 220 YDS (5.2 AVG), 1 TD, 1 INT, 65.6 QB RATING, 2 Rushes for 24 Yards, 1 Fumble {recovered}
He looked fine in limited action in Game 1. Otherwise, showed mediocre fantasy numbers although the dress rehearsal game indicated he would pass a lot.
2012
Game 1 vs. Baltimore - 9 for 13 (69.2% Completion Rate), 155 YDS (11.9 AVG), 1 TD, 1 INT, 103 QB RATING
Game 2 vs. Cincinnati - 18 for 21 (85.7% Completion Rate), 174 YDS (8.3 AVG), 1 TD, 117.1 QB RATING, 1 Rush for 5 Yards
Game 3 at Miami - 18 for 26 (69.2% Completion Rate), 220 YDS (8.5 AVG), 1 TD, 2 SACKS, 107.9 QB RATING, 2 Rushes for 6 Yards
This year he's clearly been more consistently accurate and impressive. Granted he wasn't facing the Steelers D any of these weeks but, like I said earlier, easiest passing schedule in the league this year. He won't be facing a tough pass rush / secondary most weeks. I'm not a fan of Romo, Rivers or Peyton this year, am lukewarm on Eli and wasn't willing to face the risk of owning Vick with a stripped bare waiver wire.
As for the other picks in this round, most were pretty much by the numbers ADP. Hookers And Blow received a gift in the form of Aaron Rodgers due to the big 3 RBs all coming off the board ahead of him. The only pick I could really question was Fitzgerald going as early as he did (FPL had lots of questionable selections this draft) given the receiver depth and it was a little surprising that Forte slipped into the 2nd round (although I still would have taken Sproles ahead of him). Dinner Out made out like a bandit getting to secure both Lynch and Forte to close out the round and then select a Tight End on par with Graham/Gronk in the 4th.
Winners of the Round: Hookers And Blow, Dinner Out
This was exactly my thinking as well.
In a league this size, scarcity becomes an issue at all positions. The QB scores more points in this league than any other position - of the top 25 scores from 2011, 14 were QBs. Big Ben was the #25 overall scorer. Some players look at that and decide that QB isn't a round 1/2 emphasis, but there's a huge difference in the scoring between the top 5 qbs and the next 5. Tier 1 (Rodgers/Brady/Brees/Stafford/Cam, who are also the top 5 overall scoreres) scored between 320-390 points. Tier 2 (Eli Manning/Ryan/Romo/Rivers, the #8-#13 overall scorers) ranged from 255 to 279 points. A healthy Peyton and Vick probably belong in between these two tiers somewhere. The next 8 QBs scored right around 190-210 points. So you are looking at a really large gulf between the #1 starting QB in this league and the #16 starting QB - over 150 points.
The top scoring RB, Ray Rice, scored nearly 100 points less than the top QB. The vast majority of the top 25 RBs were bunched in together, with only 30-40 points separating the top from the bottom after you get past the tier 1 guys. Kind of the same story for WR.
All of this made taking an elite QB in the first two rounds a priority for me. The elite RB is becoming a dying breed, but points are points no matter where they come from. The difference between getting a tier 2 RB and a Tier 1 RB is about -80 points. The difference between a tier 2 and tier 1 QB is about -110 points. And there are far more tier 2 RB players than tier 2 qbs.
You cannot believe how happy I was to get Matt Stafford at pick 12.
I also don't get the fantasy player hate on Matty Ice. It's EVERYWHERE. I think a lot of fantasy players are letting real-life football creep in and affect their thinking - yeah, Matt Ryan blows when it counts but as far as putting up regular season stats goes, he's pretty goddamned good and is only going to get better with the new high-flying offense and Julio Jones going into his second year. The sky's the limit.
Well it was the place I never really practiced, what was the odds of having the number one pick. It freaked me out since I felt at a big disadvantage not having access to the middle draft area of the first round. That was were my strategy was built around 4-12 pick.
I almost went with Aaron Rodgers instead of Foster, but came to my senses fairly quickly. I knew I could let everything weed out and end up with a Romo/Cutler/Manning somewhere in the 5th, but Matty Ice going in the first really got to me and made me pull the trigger early.
Romo Wittenhispants
1. Arian Foster (Hou - RB) - I really hated this pick, so boom or bust here.
2. Brandon Marshall(Chi - WR) - It was either another RB or get a high WR here, since I was picking a QB 3rd.
3. Peyton Manning(Den - QB) - Reach I know. His health is back, this pick will make or break my season.
4. Peyton Hillis(KC - RB) - Was a bit suprised he was still here in the 4th. Good value I thought.
5. Brandon Pettigrew(Det - TE) - Early yes, but was drying up. With 2TE's being slotted, I needed one early.
6. Justin Blackmon(Jac - WR) - I think this guy is underrated, great value here. I think I pissed a few others since they had him on target as well.
7. Titus Young(Det - WR) - Back to Back WR, odd move, but two great choices that I could not pass up.
8. Jake Locker(Ten - QB) - Just in case PeyPey goes south on my Locker looks ready to lead.
9. Philadelphia(Phi - DEF) - meh Defensive round. Phi has all the pieces for a good D this year, lets see if it gels.
10. Martellus Bennett(NYG - TE) - 2TE seriously, with the format needed to grab him he has large upside for a 10th round pick.
11. Bernard Scott(Cin - RB) - Dice
12. Brian Quick(StL - WR) - Dice see if he can move up
13. Alex Henery(Phi - K) - Great percentage kicker and used to the outdoors
14. Steve Breaston(KC - WR) - I thought one of my best value picks.
I agree TDsNBeers has a strong lineup. If Vick clicks this year, he will be the person to beat.
I almost went with Aaron Rodgers instead of Foster, but came to my senses fairly quickly. I knew I could let everything weed out and end up with a Romo/Cutler/Manning somewhere in the 5th, but Matty Ice going in the first really got to me and made me pull the trigger early.
Romo Wittenhispants
1. Arian Foster (Hou - RB) - I really hated this pick, so boom or bust here.
2. Brandon Marshall(Chi - WR) - It was either another RB or get a high WR here, since I was picking a QB 3rd.
3. Peyton Manning(Den - QB) - Reach I know. His health is back, this pick will make or break my season.
4. Peyton Hillis(KC - RB) - Was a bit suprised he was still here in the 4th. Good value I thought.
5. Brandon Pettigrew(Det - TE) - Early yes, but was drying up. With 2TE's being slotted, I needed one early.
6. Justin Blackmon(Jac - WR) - I think this guy is underrated, great value here. I think I pissed a few others since they had him on target as well.
7. Titus Young(Det - WR) - Back to Back WR, odd move, but two great choices that I could not pass up.
8. Jake Locker(Ten - QB) - Just in case PeyPey goes south on my Locker looks ready to lead.
9. Philadelphia(Phi - DEF) - meh Defensive round. Phi has all the pieces for a good D this year, lets see if it gels.
10. Martellus Bennett(NYG - TE) - 2TE seriously, with the format needed to grab him he has large upside for a 10th round pick.
11. Bernard Scott(Cin - RB) - Dice
12. Brian Quick(StL - WR) - Dice see if he can move up
13. Alex Henery(Phi - K) - Great percentage kicker and used to the outdoors
14. Steve Breaston(KC - WR) - I thought one of my best value picks.
I agree TDsNBeers has a strong lineup. If Vick clicks this year, he will be the person to beat.
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NO QUITTERS 4 DRAFT ANALYSIS
Round 2
2.01 Matt Forte (Chi-RB) - Dinner Out
2.02 A.J. Green (Cin-WR) - Sinistar
2.03 Maurice Jones-Drew (Jax-RB) - Good As Gould
2.04 Darren Sproles (NO-RB) - Long Island Broskis
2.05 Jamaal Charles (KC-RB) - Josh's Taco Cabana
2.06 DeMarco Murray (Dal-RB) - FPL-Defending Champs
2.07 Ryan Mathews (SD-RB) - New Orleans Phoenix
2.08 Julio Jones (Atl-WR) - I'm Doin It Like Eli
2.09 Victor Cruz (NYG-WR) - Omaha Nighthawks
2.10 Steven Jackson (STL-RB) - Peyton's Creaky Neck
2.11 Greg Jennings (GB-WR) - Bail Kings (NeoGAF)
2.12 Roddy White (Atl-WR) - Puddles of Win
2.13 Adrian Peterson (Min-RB) - Hookers And Blow
2.14 Trent Richardson (Cle-RB) - Ember Island Players
2.15 Fred Jackson (Buf-RB) - TD's N' Beer
2.16 Brandon Marshall (Chi-WR) - Romo Wittenhispants
Lots of RB situations with question marks in this round: MJD and his holdout, AP/Charles with their ACL recoveries, Mathews with his broken clavicle, Richardson and his multitude of knee scopes. Running back gets depleted INSANELY quick in a 16-team format and I didn't want to be in a position where I would be stuck with Donald Brown as my RB2. Shoring up that position was my #2 priority heading into this draft.
Thank goodness for return yardage.
Sproles was always going to be my target for Round 2. Despite being Yahoo!'s 20th ranked running back (18th overall by expert consensus), Sproles finished out the NQ3 season for FPL as RB5 (just behind Foster) - averaging 15.4 points per game. Adjusted projections for NQ4's season has Sproles finishing 5th once again (just behind Run DMC in the fictional scenario where he plays all 16 games this season). The same adjusted projections over at FF Toolbox have him finishing as RB4 (just ahead of CJ1K).
So what may have seemed like a reach was actually the safest, no-brainer decision I could have made. Drafting early in the 2nd made this decision even easier given Sproles has a mid-3rd round ADP even without return yards factored in so I didn't even need to second guess whether he would make it around to me in the 3rd. I may have even taken him in the 1st if QBs were coming off the board slower than they did. And yes, this was purely an NQ4 situation and not something that could have ever been mocked for.
Frankman lucked into nabbing Julio Jones in the middle of the round. I am all-in on the Falcons passing game this season (owning Julio in a couple leagues myself). Would have easily selected him ahead of Fitzgerald or Green.
Cruz continues to get selected ahead of Nicks in drafts - which I believe is a mistake. I would have easily bypassed on the early grab of the Muscle Hamster had Nicks slipped past that sniping Taco Cabana Boy and made it to me in the 3rd round.
Really like that Cloudy grabbed another 3-down RB early as insurance for Run DMC's inevitable trip to the IR. Just think he grabbed the wrong Jackson to do it. Granted, given how FJax went down to injury himself last season I can't exactly fault him.
Puddles was right to second guess his decision to grab Roddy in the 2nd. The whole point of selecting Megatron early is that you can wait on WR and shore up other positions. This could actually work itself out if the Madden curse takes effect... in which case this move looks genius. I can't be too thrilled about any of these receiver grabs in light of everyone bypassing Harvin (he's just as vital as Sproles in the NQ4 rule format) but Roddy and Marshall are about as safe as they come here.
I've already said my piece on AP earlier (not touching him in any drafts) but I don't feel strong about Richardson, either. Firmly believe Doug Martin will have the better fantasy season out of the rookies when all is said and done.
Winners of the Round: TD's N' Beer, I'm Doin It Like Eli
Round 2
2.01 Matt Forte (Chi-RB) - Dinner Out
2.02 A.J. Green (Cin-WR) - Sinistar
2.03 Maurice Jones-Drew (Jax-RB) - Good As Gould
2.04 Darren Sproles (NO-RB) - Long Island Broskis
2.05 Jamaal Charles (KC-RB) - Josh's Taco Cabana
2.06 DeMarco Murray (Dal-RB) - FPL-Defending Champs
2.07 Ryan Mathews (SD-RB) - New Orleans Phoenix
2.08 Julio Jones (Atl-WR) - I'm Doin It Like Eli
2.09 Victor Cruz (NYG-WR) - Omaha Nighthawks
2.10 Steven Jackson (STL-RB) - Peyton's Creaky Neck
2.11 Greg Jennings (GB-WR) - Bail Kings (NeoGAF)
2.12 Roddy White (Atl-WR) - Puddles of Win
2.13 Adrian Peterson (Min-RB) - Hookers And Blow
2.14 Trent Richardson (Cle-RB) - Ember Island Players
2.15 Fred Jackson (Buf-RB) - TD's N' Beer
2.16 Brandon Marshall (Chi-WR) - Romo Wittenhispants
Lots of RB situations with question marks in this round: MJD and his holdout, AP/Charles with their ACL recoveries, Mathews with his broken clavicle, Richardson and his multitude of knee scopes. Running back gets depleted INSANELY quick in a 16-team format and I didn't want to be in a position where I would be stuck with Donald Brown as my RB2. Shoring up that position was my #2 priority heading into this draft.
Thank goodness for return yardage.
Sproles was always going to be my target for Round 2. Despite being Yahoo!'s 20th ranked running back (18th overall by expert consensus), Sproles finished out the NQ3 season for FPL as RB5 (just behind Foster) - averaging 15.4 points per game. Adjusted projections for NQ4's season has Sproles finishing 5th once again (just behind Run DMC in the fictional scenario where he plays all 16 games this season). The same adjusted projections over at FF Toolbox have him finishing as RB4 (just ahead of CJ1K).
So what may have seemed like a reach was actually the safest, no-brainer decision I could have made. Drafting early in the 2nd made this decision even easier given Sproles has a mid-3rd round ADP even without return yards factored in so I didn't even need to second guess whether he would make it around to me in the 3rd. I may have even taken him in the 1st if QBs were coming off the board slower than they did. And yes, this was purely an NQ4 situation and not something that could have ever been mocked for.
Frankman lucked into nabbing Julio Jones in the middle of the round. I am all-in on the Falcons passing game this season (owning Julio in a couple leagues myself). Would have easily selected him ahead of Fitzgerald or Green.
Cruz continues to get selected ahead of Nicks in drafts - which I believe is a mistake. I would have easily bypassed on the early grab of the Muscle Hamster had Nicks slipped past that sniping Taco Cabana Boy and made it to me in the 3rd round.
Really like that Cloudy grabbed another 3-down RB early as insurance for Run DMC's inevitable trip to the IR. Just think he grabbed the wrong Jackson to do it. Granted, given how FJax went down to injury himself last season I can't exactly fault him.
Puddles was right to second guess his decision to grab Roddy in the 2nd. The whole point of selecting Megatron early is that you can wait on WR and shore up other positions. This could actually work itself out if the Madden curse takes effect... in which case this move looks genius. I can't be too thrilled about any of these receiver grabs in light of everyone bypassing Harvin (he's just as vital as Sproles in the NQ4 rule format) but Roddy and Marshall are about as safe as they come here.
I've already said my piece on AP earlier (not touching him in any drafts) but I don't feel strong about Richardson, either. Firmly believe Doug Martin will have the better fantasy season out of the rookies when all is said and done.
Winners of the Round: TD's N' Beer, I'm Doin It Like Eli
I really, really, really, really wanted MJD in round 2. When we entered the late 1st, I began to get really happy about my chances but then he came off the board 2 picks before mine. MJD should have been a round 1 selection.
Pretty happy to get Jamaal Charles though - I liked him more than demarco or matthews or SJax. SJax has settled in to being a good steady point producer but the days of the elite ceiling are gone. Ryan Matthews - I just don't like the Chargers offense as much this year. Demarco is explosive and Felix kinda sucks now, but I don't like Demarco's injury history nor do I trust that offense to keep giving him the ball when it needs to. I don't think Jamaal's injury will be a factor. He looked like he hadn't lost a step at all in preseason action. For those players that are concerned about touches with Peyton Hillis around, this was the exact same situation in 2010 the Chiefs had. Thomas Jones actually toted the rock MORE times than Charles did (245 to 230 i believe), yet Charles still scored 230+ points in this format and was the 3rd or 4th best fantasy back.
Pretty happy to get Jamaal Charles though - I liked him more than demarco or matthews or SJax. SJax has settled in to being a good steady point producer but the days of the elite ceiling are gone. Ryan Matthews - I just don't like the Chargers offense as much this year. Demarco is explosive and Felix kinda sucks now, but I don't like Demarco's injury history nor do I trust that offense to keep giving him the ball when it needs to. I don't think Jamaal's injury will be a factor. He looked like he hadn't lost a step at all in preseason action. For those players that are concerned about touches with Peyton Hillis around, this was the exact same situation in 2010 the Chiefs had. Thomas Jones actually toted the rock MORE times than Charles did (245 to 230 i believe), yet Charles still scored 230+ points in this format and was the 3rd or 4th best fantasy back.
It's super easy to second-guess after the fact, but when you're sitting there with 90 seconds ticking away, and your options are AP, who just came back from a catastrophic knee injury, Trent Richardson, a rookie who just had a minor knee surgery, and Fred Jackson, who you've never really thought of as second-round worthy, sometimes you find yourself clicking the draft button on Roddy White.
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I love the Kansas City backfield this season. Own the Charles-Hillis tandem in my 10-team auction league along with Murray, Muscle Hamster and David Wilson in a league where I can play 3 RBs each week.
Actually, I need to post this team because I adore it so much: standard rules, 6 points per passing TD...
QB - Matt Ryan
QB - Russell Wilson (this should look familiar)
RB - DeMarco Murray
RB - Jamaal Charles
RB - Doug "MUSCLE HAMSTER" Martin
RB - Peyton Hillis
RB - David Wilson
WR - Julio Jones (yep, 12 points plus double yardage whenever Matty Ice throws Julio a TD)
WR - Jordy Nelson
WR - Brandon Lloyd
WR - Eric Decker
WR - Kenny Britt
TE - Aaron Hernandez
TE - Jared Cook
D/ST - Buffalo Bills
K - Alex Henery
There has to be some penalty, don't you think?
There really doesn't.
One of my Championship teams from last year had Ryan, Roddy, AND Julio (who i traded for early in the year, got him from a QB-starved team for Jason Campbell who at the time was doing a good job as a starting QB). My team also had Aaron Rodgers and it ended up winning 10 straight games while leading the league in points scored as well.
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