The Pittsburgh Steelers are 15-15 in their past 30 regular-season games, but there has been nothing average about their play in that span. They have followed an 11-4 run with a 4-11 record in their past 15 games dating to Week 11 of last season. Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-13) and Jacksonville Jaguars (1-14) have been worse since then.
Key injuries help explain the current slide, but the Steelers' issues run deeper than that. ESPN.com's Matt Williamson, a native Pittsburgher, and Mike Sando discuss the steps needed for the Steelers to get back on track, beginning with whether Mike Tomlin needs to go.
Is there a case against Tomlin?
Sando: Tomlin has a 59-37 record in the regular season, giving the Steelers the NFL's sixth-highest winning percentage among all NFL teams during his tenure, which dates to 2007. The Steelers have the fourth-highest winning percentage in that span when we throw in postseason records. Are you sure you want to fire a young coach with those bottom-line credentials?
Williamson: Tomlin was the youngest head coach in the league when the Steelers hired him. He had never been a head coach at any level. He was energetic, young and the players' buddy. He came to a team loaded with great locker-room guys -- Jerome Bettis, Alan Faneca, Aaron Smith and others. My problem with Tomlin is, the first year or two, he was a terrible game-day coach. He wasted timeouts and messed up when to go for it on fourth down and when to try long field goals. That was accepted because he was new to the job, but he hasn't gotten any better. And the locker room has changed.
Sando: I know Tomlin has, in the past, acknowledged some of his game-management issues. There was a time back in 2011 against Indianapolis when he admitted losing track of how many timeouts he had left. He has talked about making fourth-down decisions entirely by feel, percentages be damned. But if we look back just at the won-lost record, it's fair to note that Bill Cowher also had some struggles after winning big early in his Steelers tenure. He went 7-9 and 6-10 as the 1990s were winding down. The team stood by him and won big in the 2000s.
Williamson: That's a fair point, but I just think the Steelers play down to their competition. That is a terrible sign to me and reflective of the coaching. When Cowher was in Pittsburgh, the game was over by halftime against those bad teams. When those bad Cleveland Browns teams came to town, they had no chance. You can look at Cowher's lifetime stats. The Steelers lost one game in his tenure in which they led after three quarters. Tomlin loses those games on a consistent basis.
Sando: The Steelers went 61-6 in Cowher's final five seasons when they led at any point in the fourth quarter. That works out to a .904 winning percentage. Only New England had a better winning percentage (68-1, .986) in those games in the same time frame; the league average was .804. The Steelers have been 63-15 (.808) in those games under Tomlin. That percentage ranks 13th and is right around the league average. The gap holds when we eliminate blowouts: Cowher's Steelers were 34-6 (.841) when they led by 1-7 points in fourth quarters, which was the second-best mark in the league. Tomlin's teams are 35-15 (.700) in those games, under the league average (.711).
Williamson: Despite those numbers, I'm sure another team would scoop up Tomlin in a hurry. He's young with a great résumé that includes two Super Bowl victories (the first one in 2002 as an assistant in Tampa Bay). But I think Pittsburgh should bring in an offensive-minded head coach, and, if Dick LeBeau retires as defensive coordinator, linebackers coach Kevin Butler is there to take over those duties. Under Tomlin, the Steelers find ways to lose and don't develop talent as well as they used to; Cowher was great at that. They would always bring in a corner in the middle rounds, you'd forget about the guy for two years and then, all of a sudden, he would turn into Ike Taylor. That isn't happening enough now.
How far are the Steelers from contending again?
Sando: The Steelers opened the season 0-4 and just gave up 55 points at New England. Their offensive line has been a mess thanks to injuries and the absence of a legitimate left tackle. Their defense has gotten old and become ordinary. Is Pittsburgh suddenly in the same boat with the Minnesotas of the NFL world?
Williamson: I don't think the Steelers are that far away. Ben Roethlisberger is good. He'll miss a game or two every year, but they have a decent backup in Bruce Gradkowski, Le'Veon Bell is a legitimate workhorse running back and I like their receivers, although Emmanuel Sanders probably will leave after the season. Their receivers got small and shifty and completely finesse when Bruce Arians was the coordinator. They need a big, physical presence at that position. It's killing them in the red zone. They need to draft a tight end pretty high because it's not clear they can count on Heath Miller to regain top form and sustain it. They need a left tackle, and maybe this year they'll finally pick early enough to take a good one.
Sando: I know you wrote that the 55-point debacle in New England had as much or more to do with Tom Brady's resurgence as with Pittsburgh's defensive issues, but still, that was a sobering experience for Steelers fans. Pittsburgh led the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (87.7) over the 10-year period coming into this season, but it ranks 31st in that category this season at 131.3 yards per game, ahead of only Jacksonville. I know game situations play into rushing opportunities, but still, that reads like a misprint.
Williamson: The nose tackle, Steve McLendon, is a good player, but he is more of an active, athletic type. The Steelers don't have anyone the opposing team has to double on running plays. What is interesting about 3-4 teams is, if you have a star nose tackle, the other team can keep you in nickel all day and make that guy hold his helmet on the sideline.
Sando: This is going to sound like blasphemy, but is there any thought about shifting away from a 3-4 defense longer term? I discussed this one with NFL executives at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in March. The 49ers' representative noted that sticking with a 3-4 for the long term would be tough to do as the team sought to retain key players, especially quarterback Colin Kaepernick. The thinking was that 3-4 schemes were more complex and better suited for veteran players commanding higher salaries. The 49ers wound up giving big contracts to two inside linebackers, but only after they decided Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman could be impact players if economic factors precipitated a switch to a 4-3.
Williamson: Those are good points. I very much believe a team can win the Super Bowl with a 4-3 or a 3-4. Both work when run properly. The Steelers don't have a "problem" like the one San Francisco had in having to pay huge money for two inside linebackers. A huge problem I would see with Pittsburgh going to a 4-3 is what to do with LaMarr Woodley and Jarvis Jones. Both fit as 3-4 outside linebackers.
Sando: Case closed, then. Let's get back to what Pittsburgh must do to contend again, specifically on defense.
Williamson: Cameron Heyward is a really good starting defensive end. Brett Keisel could still be decent if brought back on the right terms. The Steelers need a pure 3-4 nose tackle and an active, young defensive end. Jones isn't strong enough against the run yet, but he has to be one of the outside linebackers. Lawrence Timmons is one of the better players at his position. It's time to move on from Ryan Clark and Larry Foote even though those guys' leadership has value. Troy Polamalu is the tough one. He's expensive and has played well for the most part, but he is a liability in coverage, his freelancing gets him in trouble and injuries are always a concern. They also need another safety even if Polamalu remains in the picture.
The outlook
Sando: One of the biggest problems I see for Pittsburgh is in Ohio, not Pennsylvania. The Cincinnati Bengals have put together an impressive array of young talent. They are so far ahead of the Steelers and on the rise. But it could be a lot worse in Pittsburgh.
Williamson: When the Steelers have gotten that early pick in the past, they've turned it into studs such as Roethlisberger or Polamalu, players to build around. Maybe they can do that this offseason. If they find the next Jonathan Ogden somewhere in the top five and hit on the second-rounder, now Ben plays well, Bell is the real deal. This is not a total rebuild. If everything goes right this offseason, I think the Steelers could contend in the AFC North as soon as next season. Unlike many of the poor teams, they do have a quarterback. But ultimately, this looks more like a two-year rebuild to me.
